Who is getting relegated?

[Werewolf of Wombourne]

Hold on, haven't we won 3 of our last 5 games?

I swear some people are worse than goldfish.

This sums up the reaction to the Brighton Game

 

[Ned]

Southampton are down.
Leeds are teetering and need a minor miracle.

I’ve got a feeling that Everton might sneak out of this; they’ve got Brighton on Monday at 5:30 after Brighton have Utd on Thursday. City is a write off but then they’ve got us and Bournemouth which are both winnable games for them in fairness.

West Ham have Europe to contend with and their next two league games are the Manchester clubs. But their last 3 games are winnable and they do ok against teams around them usually.

Forest have a few winnable games left but they can lose against anybody too with their defence.

Leicester need to be worried because after Fulham away they’ve got Liverpool and Newcastle who both are chasing Europe and then West Ham who may still need something.


Nutshell… we should be ok even if we lose all our games. There are still a lot of games involving relegation teams playing each other and then those sides have games against europe/title chasers. It would need two or three teams to suddenly spark into life and become fantastic or fantastically lucky which is really unlikely.

 

[Ned]

Hold on, haven't we won 3 of our last 5 games?

I swear some people are worse than goldfish.

We’ve lost 1 of our last 1.

 

[The Weasel]

There is a world where big Sam loses all 4 games, yet walks away with £3m because the 3 teams below Leeds lose all their remaining games too...

 

[Northampton_wolf]

Southampton are down.
Leeds are teetering and need a minor miracle.

I’ve got a feeling that Everton might sneak out of this; they’ve got Brighton on Monday at 5:30 after Brighton have Utd on Thursday. City is a write off but then they’ve got us and Bournemouth which are both winnable games for them in fairness.

West Ham have Europe to contend with and their next two league games are the Manchester clubs. But their last 3 games are winnable and they do ok against teams around them usually.

Forest have a few winnable games left but they can lose against anybody too with their defence.

Leicester need to be worried because after Fulham away they’ve got Liverpool and Newcastle who both are chasing Europe and then West Ham who may still need something.


Nutshell… we should be ok even if we lose all our games. There are still a lot of games involving relegation teams playing each other and then those sides have games against europe/title chasers. It would need two or three teams to suddenly spark into life and become fantastic or fantastically lucky which is really unlikely.

Everton should not be beating wolves at home.

Not on our current home form, ill be ****ed

 

[Bawtry Wolf]

Everton game will be a draw - they may have only won one away game all season but they’ve drawn 8. I think if Madison had scored that penalty they would have collapsed on Monday as they have done in many of their games. They’ve lost Coleman again and Calvert Lewin has played two games on the spin so is likely to be out for a few months in the next week or two. By the time they play us they could be in the last chance saloon with a finger of ale left in their last pint. They won’t be able to park the bus which suits us better and with a central defence of Tarkowski and Michael Keane even Costa may have the run on them.

Generally it’s too close to call at the bottom but points on the board matter now. Everton and Leeds have difficult games coming up which could mean they are playing catch up on others which, as we know, is always difficult.

 

[tonto]

It interests me that so many posters take the time to say how they hate a particular club and hope they go down. Tbh I couldn't give a **** which 3 clubs go down as long as it's not Wolves! I may be unusual but I only take a passing interest in any club during the week before we play them.

You don’t hate Leeds, shame on you

 

[cannockwolves]

Hold on, haven't we won 3 of our last 5 games?

I swear some people are worse than goldfish.

Yes we have, and that's fantastic. In some ways it doesn't matter to me if are relegated or not. I have been going for nearly 45 years so I am not stopping now. Of course I would prefer the club to do well in the prem next season.

I know it's way too early to be panicking about next season, but I have seen decades worth of clubs in multiple divisions follow one bad season with another.

If we are not going to be in this position again we need to find another 20 goals with the loss of Neves. It's just going to be a very interesting rebuild in the summer, and I am not convinced just yet its going to be that great. It's absolutely nothing to do with Brighton, I was thinking the same after the wins against Chelsea and Brentford.

The concern comes from us having to rely on previously injured players in Sasa, Chinqiho, and to some extent Neto. Factor in the lost of Neves and I think it is reasonable to feel a little worried.

But it's the same every season, get a few signing in and the hope gets you every time!

 

[Flump]

Yes we have, and that's fantastic. In some ways it doesn't matter to me if are relegated or not. I have been going for nearly 45 years so I am not stopping now. Of course I would prefer the club to do well in the prem next season.

I know it's way too early to be panicking about next season, but I have seen decades worth of clubs in multiple divisions follow one bad season with another.

If we are not going to be in this position again we need to find another 20 goals with the loss of Neves. It's just going to be a very interesting rebuild in the summer, and I am not convinced just yet its going to be that great. It's absolutely nothing to do with Brighton, I was thinking the same after the wins against Chelsea and Brentford.

The concern comes from us having to rely on previously injured players in Sasa, Chinqiho, and to some extent Neto. Factor in the lost of Neves and I think it is reasonable to feel a little worried.

But it's the same every season, get a few signing in and the hope gets you every time!

Well, you're worrying because of the potential loss of Neves, with no assumed incomings. To me, that seems a pretty unlikely scenario, so a waste of time thinking about.

Since Lopetegui has come in, we're 10th in the league for goals scored (well, we were last week, CBA to check again, we may have slipped to 11th). Of course we're all hoping for a striker to start scoring, but it's 4 months out of date to think we're utterly terrible at scoring goals.

 

[Bognor_Wolf]

Well, you're worrying because of the potential loss of Neves, with no assumed incomings. To me, that seems a pretty unlikely scenario, so a waste of time thinking about.

Since Lopetegui has come in, we're 10th in the league for goals scored (well, we were last week, CBA to check again, we may have slipped to 11th). Of course we're all hoping for a striker to start scoring, but it's 4 months out of date to think we're utterly terrible at scoring goals.

Like you said since Lopetegui has come in goals we have scored more...

Add in a more settled to the Premier League Cunha in behind a hopefully returning Fabio Silva and Sasa Kalajdzic I'm more than confident we will get more goals in the side next season from uptop..

 

[A3wolf]

If/when we are mathematically safe, while not wanting us to be ‘on the beach’ there is some sense in the players avoiding the

Prize for daftest post of the day goes to….SuperGran.

I can’t stand Forest either, but I want the extra £10M bonus for MGW. It all helps FFP and pays someone wages for a couple of seasons.
A win against Everton might also help us climb one further place up the table, and that is worth another £2M istr.

If/when we are mathematically safe, while not wanting us to be ‘on the beach’ there probably is some sense in the players avoiding certain types of challenges (e.g. Seamus Coleman v Leicester) they wouldn’t normally even if we still have positions to play for. I think this is what may give Everton an edge over us. Can imagine those who are expecting to be off or with contracts running out like Adama protecting themselves a bit

 

[Contrarian]

Hold on, haven't we won 3 of our last 5 games?

I swear some people are worse than goldfish.

It's who we are playing that counts. Chelsea haven't won for ages and look appalling. Brentford are on the beach and Palace weren't that bothered (and consensus was, we ground that one out without playing well).

Man Utd and Arsenal on the other hand... Our only hope is that both title and Champions League places will be settled when we play them. Because realistically, our chances of getting a point at Old Trafford or the Emirates are tiny. Then we have Villa, also bang in form, this year playing football we can only dream of. At home, we usually do better, but not one person in the universe would be surprised an iota if Villa won that.

Which leaves Everton as our best chance of picking up a point or 3. Luckily, they have nothing to play for and didn't look far better against Leicester than we did.

Seriously, we will do well to get 3 points from those next 4 matches. And that will require playing better than the last 4. Thankfully, 1 point will *probably* do. I mean, it's not like we are an unlucky club with history of snatching defeats from the jaws of victory, are we?

 

[arctic rime]

It's who we are playing that counts. Chelsea haven't won for ages and look appalling. Brentford are on the beach and Palace weren't that bothered (and consensus was, we ground that one out without playing well).

Man Utd and Arsenal on the other hand... Our only hope is that both title and Champions League places will be settled when we play them. Because realistically, our chances of getting a point at Old Trafford or the Emirates are tiny. Then we have Villa, also bang in form, this year playing football we can only dream of. At home, we usually do better, but not one person in the universe would be surprised an iota if Villa won that.

Which leaves Everton as our best chance of picking up a point or 3. Luckily, they have nothing to play for and didn't look far better against Leicester than we did.

We mostly played them off the park in January, we can do this!

 

[Zico]

I’m thinking Everton will escape as I’m expecting them to beat us at home and Bournemouth on the final day

Wait - you expect us to lose a game? I would never have guessed.

 

[Ned]

Everton should not be beating wolves at home.

Not on our current home form, ill be ****ed

So they won’t be looking at playing the team currently 14th (maybe lower at the time of the game) and think it’s a winnable game? Come on, man! If it was the other way round we would be pencilling the game in as one we could win.

 

[Zico]

It's who we are playing that counts. Chelsea haven't won for ages and look appalling. Brentford are on the beach and Palace weren't that bothered (and consensus was, we ground that one out without playing well).

Man Utd and Arsenal on the other hand... Our only hope is that both title and Champions League places will be settled when we play them. Because realistically, our chances of getting a point at Old Trafford or the Emirates are tiny. Then we have Villa, also bang in form, this year playing football we can only dream of. At home, we usually do better, but not one person in the universe would be surprised an iota if Villa won that.

Which leaves Everton as our best chance of picking up a point or 3. Luckily, they have nothing to play for and didn't look far better against Leicester than we did.

Seriously, we will do well to get 3 points from those next 4 matches. And that will require playing better than the last 4. Thankfully, 1 point will *probably* do. I mean, it's not like we are an unlucky club with history of snatching defeats from the jaws of victory, are we?

You seriously think all but two teams will get to 37 points?! Absolutely no chance whatsoever.

 

[SuperGran]

It's who we are playing that counts. Chelsea haven't won for ages and look appalling. Brentford are on the beach and Palace weren't that bothered (and consensus was, we ground that one out without playing well).

Man Utd and Arsenal on the other hand... Our only hope is that both title and Champions League places will be settled when we play them. Because realistically, our chances of getting a point at Old Trafford or the Emirates are tiny. Then we have Villa, also bang in form, this year playing football we can only dream of. At home, we usually do better, but not one person in the universe would be surprised an iota if Villa won that.

Which leaves Everton as our best chance of picking up a point or 3. Luckily, they have nothing to play for and didn't look far better against Leicester than we did.

Seriously, we will do well to get 3 points from those next 4 matches. And that will require playing better than the last 4. Thankfully, 1 point will *probably* do. I mean, it's not like we are an unlucky club with history of snatching defeats from the jaws of victory, are we?

Your scraping the barrel here with your excuses it was Chelsea’s first game under lampard most people expected them to win and their previous game was a draw with Liverpool
How were Brentford not on the beach but not on the beach when they played Nottingham forest? Crystal Palace weren’t bothered but were bothered playing West Ham.

 

[WickedWolfie]

Fat Sam confirmed....

Sam Allardyce handed reins for Leeds run-in following Javi Gracia departure

The former England boss takes over for the final four matches

uk.yahoo.com

Leeds, Leeds are falling apart again....

 

[Northampton_wolf]

So they won’t be looking at playing the team currently 14th (maybe lower at the time of the game) and think it’s a winnable game? Come on, man! If it was the other way round we would be pencilling the game in as one we could win.

Yeh thats fair Ned, more if we lose that we could genuinely end up with 5 losses

 

[Contrarian]

You seriously think all but two teams will get to 37 points?! Absolutely no chance whatsoever.

It only requires 2 teams to get to 37. All it would take is 2 out of Forest/Leicester/Everton/Leeds to win two of their next three and they are within catching distance of us on the last day - provided we don't pick up more points. You seriously think Forest couldn't beat Chelsea and Southampton? That Leicester can't beat Fulham? Stranger results happen every day! That even Leeds couldn't beat Spurs and West Ham?

Probability is it's unlikely. However, I don't think it's 1 in 200 or anything silly like that. After all, teams have been relegated on 37, 38, 39 points. The odds for our matches against Villa, Man U and Arsenal will all be stacked against us. If we lose to Villa and then assuming we lose to Man U, the Everton match possibly becomes the decider.

Evertons run in looks tough with Brighton and Man City. But then they also have us and Bournemouth. If they get a point from Brighton, they will be fighting for their lives against us.

The mentality that "we are already safe" is most likely behind our non-show against Brighton. We mustn't make that same mistake again. Whatever, I think the final table will be closer than many seem to realise. Perhaps just a point or 2 above the drop.

 

[SuperGran]

Latest odds

 

[Sedgley Gold N Black]

There is a world where big Sam loses all 4 games, yet walks away with £3m because the 3 teams below Leeds lose all their remaining games too...

This is what we've been on about in the office and to be quite honest you could see it happening when you look at the fixtures.

Pretty much all of the sides have two games of their four games you'd probably write off.

 

[Elvis Wolf]

3 more points from 3 last games will take us to 40!
That's definitely going to be sufficient for us to stay up!

 

[Ned]

Yeh thats fair Ned, more if we lose that we could genuinely end up with 5 losses

It’s such a strange one though because if we do beat Villa and are safe by Everton then it probably increases Everton’s chances of beating us in some perverse way.

Personally I would treat that game as a cup final and relegate the *******s!!!

 

[Contrarian]

Your scraping the barrel here with your excuses it was Chelsea’s first game under lampard most people expected them to win and their previous game was a draw with Liverpool
How were Brentford not on the beach but not on the beach when they played Nottingham forest? Crystal Palace weren’t bothered but were bothered playing West Ham.

Did you see Chelsea last night? They are abysmal! Anybody who has to play Chelsea in the run in must be lapping it up. I do think Forest will fancy their chances of surviving. With perhaps Leeds and Everton joining Southampton in the end.

 

[Contrarian]

Latest odds View attachment 34459

If you're putting your faith in the bookies, they won't have us as favourites to get even a point against any of Villa, Man U and Arsenal! Which leaves Everton. So it's based on the others not being able to catch us up. Fair enough, but no time to be complacent.

 

[Contrarian]

It’s such a strange one though because if we do beat Villa and are safe by Everton then it probably increases Everton’s chances of beating us in some perverse way.

Personally I would treat that game as a cup final and relegate the *******s!!!

What if we lose to Villa? We need to treat the Villa match as the real cup final. Win that and we are close to mathematically safe. Lose it... and I think I will be avoiding this place as it will be in meltdown, especially as one or two of those beneath us pick up points and edge closer.

 

[Sephiroth]

What if we lose to Villa? We need to treat the Villa match as the real cup final. Win that and we are close to mathematically safe. Lose it... and I think I will be avoiding this place as it will be in meltdown, especially as one or two of those beneath us pick up points and edge closer.

Id lock yourself in dark room for a month if I were you mate. It's not safe outside.

 

[Ned]

What if we lose to Villa? We need to treat the Villa match as the real cup final. Win that and we are close to mathematically safe. Lose it... and I think I will be avoiding this place as it will be in meltdown, especially as one or two of those beneath us pick up points and edge closer.

Depends on the performance. I’m expecting a reaction against Villa but obviously if we don’t turn up and lose comfortably then I feel the criticism would be justified after Brighton.

 

[Werewolf of Wombourne]

What if we lose to Villa? We need to treat the Villa match as the real cup final. Win that and we are close to mathematically safe. Lose it... and I think I will be avoiding this place as it will be in meltdown, especially as one or two of those beneath us pick up points and edge closer.

The title will be settled by the time we play Arsenal so I wouldn't write that one off. City have West Ham, Leeds, Everton and Chelsea their next 4 games. That's a highly likely 12 points for them. Arsenal have Newcastle away and Brighton at home. No guarantee of anything from those games. By the time we get to the last two games it may well be done and dusted.

 

[Sedgley Gold N Black]

If you're putting your faith in the bookies, they won't have us as favourites to get even a point against any of Villa, Man U and Arsenal! Which leaves Everton. So it's based on the others not being able to catch us up. Fair enough, but no time to be complacent.

It will be and with West Ham being below us currently is a bit of an insurance policy from the bookies view as for one of the other teams to catch us they are probably going to have to beat West Ham (Leeds and/or Leicester) which leaves West Ham with fewer games to pick up the points they'd need.

If West Ham were to unexpectedly win v City tonight those odds will drastically change.

 

[arctic rime]

3 teams aren't getting to 37 points no way.

 

[Werewolf of Wombourne]

I still don't understand why some on here are still nervous. The bottom 5 have won 2 games between them out of the last 25 they have played yet some still think 3 of them are going to win 3 of their last 4!

 

[Contrarian]

The title will be settled by the time we play Arsenal so I wouldn't write that one off. City have West Ham, Leeds, Everton and Chelsea their next 4 games. That's a highly likely 12 points for them. Arsenal have Newcastle away and Brighton at home. No guarantee of anything from those games. By the time we get to the last two games it may well be done and dusted.

Bad news - we're not going to catch Arsenal, are we?

 

[steve vena]

Depends on the performance. I’m expecting a reaction against Villa but obviously if we don’t turn up and lose comfortably then I feel the criticism would be justified after Brighton.

Tbh mate I think we are safe already.

 

[Contrarian]

I still don't understand why some on here are still nervous. The bottom 5 have won 2 games between them out of the last 25 they have played yet some still think 3 of them are going to win 3 of their last 4!

You're right we're safe. Relax for now, until the whole nightmare repeats in a few months! "We're only 8 points off 6th". "We're down" "We're gonna get 50 points". "We're down". "Can't see us getting another point this decade"

 

[Flump]

It's who we are playing that counts. Chelsea haven't won for ages and look appalling. Brentford are on the beach and Palace weren't that bothered (and consensus was, we ground that one out without playing well).

Well yeah, if you're going to discount all our wins, then yes we are struggling, and yes you're always going to be glum. But I'm sure before those games you weren't saying they're going to be 3 push overs, so it's pretty disingenuous to do so now.

Man Utd and Arsenal on the other hand... Our only hope is that both title and Champions League places will be settled when we play them. Because realistically, our chances of getting a point at Old Trafford or the Emirates are tiny. Then we have Villa, also bang in form, this year playing football we can only dream of. At home, we usually do better, but not one person in the universe would be surprised an iota if Villa won that.

Brentford beat Villa the other day. So are Brentford not on the beach, or are Villa so bad that they lost to a team on the beach?

Which leaves Everton as our best chance of picking up a point or 3. Luckily, they have nothing to play for and didn't look far better against Leicester than we did.

Seriously, we will do well to get 3 points from those next 4 matches. And that will require playing better than the last 4. Thankfully, 1 point will *probably* do. I mean, it's not like we are an unlucky club with history of snatching defeats from the jaws of victory, are we?

The post I was replying to was saying we wouldn't pick up another point, not that we wouldn't get more than 3.

Like I've said before, a lot of people don't have an intuitive grasp of how probability adds up over a series of games. The chances of us losing our next 4 games are very low.

 

[Zico]

It only requires 2 teams to get to 37. All it would take is 2 out of Forest/Leicester/Everton/Leeds to win two of their next three and they are within catching distance of us on the last day - provided we don't pick up more points. You seriously think Forest couldn't beat Chelsea and Southampton? That Leicester can't beat Fulham? Stranger results happen every day! That even Leeds couldn't beat Spurs and West Ham?

It requires 3 of those to win two or their next three! Have you forgotten about Southampton??

 

[JJ59]

Don't worry, I have a fail safe way to ensure that we do not get relegated...I have placed a bet with Skybet. So we can all relax, we are safe now.

 

[Wonder Boyo]

It only requires 2 teams to get to 37. All it would take is 2 out of Forest/Leicester/Everton/Leeds to win two of their next three and they are within catching distance of us on the last day - provided we don't pick up more points. You seriously think Forest couldn't beat Chelsea and Southampton? That Leicester can't beat Fulham? Stranger results happen every day! That even Leeds couldn't beat Spurs and West Ham?

It requires 3 of those to win two or their next three! Have you forgotten about Southampton??

Please tell me if I am going mad here because maths is not my strong point so I might be wrong. I thought it required 4 of the teams below us to get at least 37 points (with a better goal difference).

- If only Forest and West Ham (2 teams) got to 37 points and with a better goal difference we would move down two places to 16th and finish above Southampton, Everton, Leeds, and Leicester.

-If Forest, West Ham and Leicester (3 teams) got to 37 points with a better goal difference than us we would move down three places to 17th with Southampton, Everton, and Leeds below us.

- If Forest, West Ham, Leicester and Leeds (4 teams) got to 37 points and a better goal difference we would move down four places to 18th and get relegated with Everton and Southampton.