Magic Number Thread 2017/18

[marrs-guitar]

An end of month update:

February saw the promotion target fall by 12 points, which was exactly the progress achieved in January. The negative comparison though is that January only contained 4 matchdays, February one extra so the pace of progress toward the target has slowed. Even had the victory been achieved vs Norwich, there would have been a negative performance vs the previous month.

The target fell by an average of 2.4 points per matchday in February (ave. fall was 3 in January).

Another negative trend is that our rivals are dropping less points: In January the target fell by 5 points purely because of dropped points by other teams (over 4 matchdays: 1.25 points dropped per matchday on ave.); in February only 4 points off the target were "gifted" to Wolves by rivals failing.

Based on the February average alone, Wolves would still manage promotion, but will take until the final day of the season for it to be confirmed.

 

[Darvo]

An end of month update:

February saw the promotion target fall by 12 points, which was exactly the progress achieved in January. The negative comparison though is that January only contained 4 matchdays, February one extra so the pace of progress toward the target has slowed. Even had the victory been achieved vs Norwich, there would have been a negative performance vs the previous month.

The target fell by an average of 2.4 points per matchday in February (ave. fall was 3 in January).

Another negative trend is that our rivals are dropping less points: In January the target fell by 5 points purely because of dropped points by other teams (over 4 matchdays: 1.25 points dropped per matchday on ave.); in February only 4 points off the target were "gifted" to Wolves by rivals failing.

Based on the February average alone, Wolves would still manage promotion, but will take until the final day of the season for it to be confirmed.

“Will take until the final day of the season for it to be confirmed”.

In that case, anyone know of a Midlands based manufacturer of pacemakers that I can invest in?

If all of the above is true I cor see Essex making it past the end of March!

Think we might need to set up a support group and include the Samaritans hotline in the MolMix banner/header?

 

[Boss Hogg]

Jeff Shi here Marrs - the key question is when do I need to order / cancel the open top bus?

 

[Arcadius]

Is it now 27?

 

[WinchWolf]

Is it now 27?

I believe it's 27 for promotion, 31 for title and 16 for playoffs

 

[marrs-guitar]

After Leeds 0 Wolves 3

24

(For the title: 28)

 

[marrs-guitar]

After Aston Villa 4 Wolves 1 and Cardiff 3 Birmingham 2... still 24 obviously. Derby's game later today will have no bearing on the target.

Worryingly, after 36 games, we were actually closer to reaching our target in 2001/02 than we are now (21 points was the magic number back then as we entered the last 10 fixtures).

 

[Wolf86]

This number can obviously change based of future results of our own and teams around us.

 

[London Wolves]

It would be an outstanding end of season if 100 points are required for promotion. Normally it's about 90 but if the other teams don't have a blip we may be looking at least 96 pts to secure promotion

 

[Axle]

It would be an outstanding end of season if 100 points are required for promotion. Normally it's about 90 but if the other teams don't have a blip we may be looking at least 96 pts to secure promotion

Interesting. In another thread l said 92 for promotion, 93 for champs.

Will be fascinating to see who is right come the end of the season . . .

 

[marrs-guitar]

After Aston Villa 1 QPR 3, Brentford 1 Cardiff 3, Wolves 3 Reading 0

18

(For the title: 25)

 

[Deleted at request of member 4337]

Look's a lot closer tonight.

 

[WinchWolf]

After Aston Villa 1 QPR 3, Brentford 1 Cardiff 3, Wolves 3 Reading 0

18

(For the title: 25)

Surely it's 21 & 28. If Villa beat Cardiff they can get 96 and if Cardiff win all other games they can get 100. If Cardiff beat Villa their best is 103 hence 28 for the title

 

[Tring Wolf]

Surely it's 21 & 28. If Villa beat Cardiff they can get 96 and if Cardiff win all other games they can get 100. If Cardiff beat Villa their best is 103 hence 28 for the title

Villa can only get 96. We’re already on 79...

 

[WinchWolf]

Villa can only get 96. We’re already on 79...

Of course

 

[MacTrizzle]

Look's a lot closer tonight.

Yep. We have to focus and beat burton on Saturday and if so, breaking the 80 point barrier will be a psychological boost. Fingers crossed

 

[wolvesdb]

So the magic number is now 18 points and we have 9 games left. So we only need a MAXIMUM of 2 points per game even if Aston Villa win every match left this season.

 

[1312]

After Aston Villa 1 QPR 3, Brentford 1 Cardiff 3, Wolves 3 Reading 0

18

(For the title: 25)

Which mean as it stands, Blues at Home will be the day.

Oh what fun that'll be

 

[JR WAS KING]

Surely it's 21 & 28. If Villa beat Cardiff they can get 96 and if Cardiff win all other games they can get 100. If Cardiff beat Villa their best is 103 hence 28 for the title

We'll be hard pressed to get 28 points from 9 matches

 

[Super Ted]

Which mean as it stands, Blues at Home will be the day.

Oh what fun that'll be

.....and potentially what a day in Sunderland!

 

[Chiswick_Wolf]

We’ve basically just got 5 game season given our points advantage. Big 5 coming up.

 

[Wolf in Kenilworth]

We need 6 wins to be sure although realistically I think 4 more wins will do.

Beat Cardiff and we win the title IMO.

 

[Sedgley Gold N Black]

Which mean as it stands, Blues at Home will be the day.

Oh what fun that'll be

Looking at the fixtures, there's a chance Blues could need something to avoid relegation.

3 points adrift of Barnsley and 6 adrift of the two above, Barnlsey v Bolton the day before our game.

 

[WolvesAreBoringOnCeefax]

Looking at the fixtures, there's a chance Blues could need something to avoid relegation.

3 points adrift of Barnsley and 6 adrift of the two above, Barnlsey v Bolton the day before our game.

I’ve had Blues earmarked as a game to get to for months, swapped weekends at work to have it free, oh how great it’d be to secure promotion and send them down in a derby match! When do the tickets hit general sale do we know? Will they start doing the 50 loyalty points and stuff (which we have)

 

[marrs-guitar]

After Wolves 3 Burton 1

15

(For the title: 22)

 

[marrs-guitar]

After Bolton 1 Aston Villa 0

12

(For the title: 22)

 

[USA Wolf]

After Bolton 1 Aston Villa 0

12

(For the title: 22)

Yasssssssss!

 

[Oh When the Wolves]

Potentially promoted at Cardiff away if we beat boro and hull and others drop points

 

[Oh When the Wolves]

If we stumble slightly , could well be blues at home !

 

[1972 i began]

Hope its blouse at hum,wat a ****ing party that would be.

 

[Netherton Wolf]

Hope its blouse at hum,wat a ****ing party that would be.

I said that months ago

 

[Bill S Preston Esq.]

Yasssssssss!

Yasssssss queen.

 

[Wolvesfcneil]

10 points and we will be up 14 for the league

 

[Deleted member 6526]

Middlesbrough AWAY
Hull HOME
Cardiff AWAY
Derby HOME
Brum HOME
Bolton AWAY
Sheff Weds HOME
Sunderland AWAY

I think we can get 12 points out of that lot.

 

[marrs-guitar]

After Middlesbrough 1 Wolves 2

9

(For the title: 19)

Worst possible finish: 5th

 

[Lupu]

After Middlesbrough 1 Wolves 2

9

(For the title: 19)

Worst possible finish: 6th

So we are safe for the playoffs then.

 

[wolvesdb]

Yep we are mathematically in the playoffs.

I am sure the worst we can finish is 5th though!

 

[marrs-guitar]

An end of month update:

March saw the promotion target fall by 18 points, the best month of 2018 to date.

12 of these points were directly earned by Wolves, with the other 6 coming from rivals dropping points (an improvement over January - 5 dropped by others - and February - 4 points dropped by others).

The target fell by an average of 3.6 points in total per matchday in March (ave. fall was 3 in January and 2.4 in February).

Based on the March average alone, Wolves will secure promotion vs Derby. This was the game forecast at the end of January to be "the one", but a poor February pushed potentially promotion back to the final day.

 

[GoldenHorseshoe]

An end of month update:

March saw the promotion target fall by 18 points, the best month of 2018 to date.

12 of these points were directly earned by Wolves, with the other 6 coming from rivals dropping points (an improvement over January - 5 dropped by others - and February - 4 points dropped by others).

The target fell by an average of 3.6 points in total per matchday in March (ave. fall was 3 in January and 2.4 in February).

Based on the March average alone, Wolves will secure promotion vs Derby. This was the game forecast at the end of January to be "the one", but a poor February pushed potentially promotion back to the final day.

Excellent analysis marrs.

 

[marrs-guitar]

After Sheffield Utd 1 Cardiff 1

9

(For the title: 17)

Worst possible finish: 5th