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Magic Number Thread 2017/18

marrs-guitar

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OK, with the Christmas programme now concluded, it's maybe time to get the countdown started.

Firstly for anyone who hasn't come across the magic number before, a few words... the number you see are the points Wolves still need to acquire to mathematically guarantee promotion. Below that figure it is in theory still possible that we would miss out with the worst possible combination of results. The number is not about what I think we will need, nor about what results I think the other clubs will get.

It is pure mathematics: to determine the point at which it is no longer mathematically possible for Wolves to miss out on automatic promotion.

For a little guidance, or reminiscence, here are a few past magic number threads that turned out happily:
https://www.molineuxmix.co.uk/index.php?threads/magic-number-thread-2010-11.150130/
https://www.molineuxmix.co.uk/index.php?threads/magic-number.140293/

Anyway, as of today, the magic number is....

46
 

arctic rime

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OK, with the Christmas programme now concluded, it's maybe time to get the countdown started.

Firstly for anyone who hasn't come across the magic number before, a few words... the number you see are the points Wolves still need to acquire to mathematically guarantee promotion. Below that figure it is in theory still possible that we would miss out with the worst possible combination of results. The number is not about what I think we will need, nor about what results I think the other clubs will get.

It is pure mathematics: to determine the point at which it is no longer mathematically possible for Wolves to miss out on automatic promotion.

For a little guidance, or reminiscence, here are a few past magic number threads that turned out happily:
https://www.molineuxmix.co.uk/index.php?threads/magic-number-thread-2010-11.150130/
https://www.molineuxmix.co.uk/index.php?threads/magic-number.140293/

Anyway, as of today, the magic number is....

46

Cheers Mg
 

HICKO

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Thanks marrs-guitar UTW
 

jrpb-3

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adding it to the links to previous stickies to make it easy to find to update
 

GoldenHorseshoe

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OK, with the Christmas programme now concluded, it's maybe time to get the countdown started.

Firstly for anyone who hasn't come across the magic number before, a few words... the number you see are the points Wolves still need to acquire to mathematically guarantee promotion. Below that figure it is in theory still possible that we would miss out with the worst possible combination of results. The number is not about what I think we will need, nor about what results I think the other clubs will get.

It is pure mathematics: to determine the point at which it is no longer mathematically possible for Wolves to miss out on automatic promotion.

For a little guidance, or reminiscence, here are a few past magic number threads that turned out happily:
https://www.molineuxmix.co.uk/index.php?threads/magic-number-thread-2010-11.150130/
https://www.molineuxmix.co.uk/index.php?threads/magic-number.140293/

Anyway, as of today, the magic number is....

46

Great marrs, I was waiting for you to start it up. I started the first MN thread several years ago, and you perfected it and run it superbly.
Just to clarify, it's not just the points that we need to gain, but the sum of the points we gain and the points that our closest rival loses.
Good to mention that with 20 games left (maximum available pts = 60) when the magic number is less than the available pts. it's in our own hands. (A bit obvious when we have such a big lead, :oops:, but if the teams were closer would be less obvious)
 

Sedgley Gold N Black

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Bumping this to remind people that following Saturday, we're a point closer to promotion.

Demonstrates it a lot clearer than the various other threads.
 

marrs-guitar

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Why has it changed? The gap to 3rd hasnt altered.

It is not calculated simply based on the gap to third.

It is based on the maximum points that the other promotion contenders can theoretically achieve, to see what the maximum points total for promotion could be (i.e. with what points total would a team 100% guarantee finishing ahead of at least 22 other teams; or in other words, would be at least 2nd). Derby's loss of two points last night alters that total.

At present, all we can mathematically say for certain (the basis of this thread) is that any team achieving 106 points will definitely be promoted. Any points tally below 106 could mean promotion is not 100% certain. As Wolves currently have 62 points, they need another 44 points to hit 106.

This obviously means that any team which, as of today, is unable to reach 106 points under its own steam does not have its promotion destiny in its own hands. Only 3 teams have that luxury: Wolves, Derby & Cardiff. All others must just keep winning and hope other teams drop points.
 
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Burton Wolf

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So 14 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, walk in the park :)
 

Wolfheart

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46? That means Derby and Cardiff needs to win every single one of their remaining games.

Derby can only pick up another 54 points and we’re 9 points ahead. 45 is the maximum magic number.

With the tight pack below us we will only need 90 at most for the title.

There is 19/18 games left and the teams below us have picked up between 53-47 points in 27/28 games.

No team in that pack are going to

38 is the magic number.
 

Sephiroth

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Did you bother reading the explanation of the thread?
 

oldgoldheart

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Surely two teams go up so whiever is second is irrelevant?
 

theweave

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Can we have a number for relegation, play offs, promotion and winning the league? Be nice to see how early we can tick each one off
 
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60andstillgoing

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So lets take the average points per game over the season so far and then adjust with the average of the current last 6 games then I think the magic number is 21, How this you ask.

Wolves average to end of season 103pts, current form (last 6), 96 pts, poss end with 99pts.
Derby average to end of season 87pts, current form, 89, poss end with 88pts
Villa av, 82, current 89, poss 85
Fulham av 76, current 94, poss 85.

So, 86 points for promotion, less present points 65, therefore it must be 21, 7 wins.
I could just be guessing.
 

marrs-guitar

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Can we have a number for relegation, play offs, promotion and winning the league? Be nice to see how early we can tick each one off

I've added the number for the title now.

Relegation is too much of a given to serve any purpose... it's also far too complex to do in January with so many teams still to play one another. It may even already be mathematically impossible to go down.

So lets take the average points per game over the season so far and then adjust with the average of the current last 6 games then I think the magic number is 21, How this you ask.

Wolves average to end of season 103pts, current form (last 6), 96 pts, poss end with 99pts.
Derby average to end of season 87pts, current form, 89, poss end with 88pts
Villa av, 82, current 89, poss 85
Fulham av 76, current 94, poss 85.

So, 86 points for promotion, less present points 65, therefore it must be 21, 7 wins.
I could just be guessing.

You are just guessing, which, if you read the thread through, is not the purpose of this thread. By all means start a "How many points do you think we need?" thread for such though.
 
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theweave

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Fair enough. Just an extra 3 points for the title then :)
 

Jonny De Wolf

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I've added the number for the title now.

Relegation is too much of a given to serve any purpose... it's also far too complex to do in January with so many teams still to play one another. It may even already be mathematically impossible to go down.
.
Not yet mathematically safe (I think) - this is always much later than people would think - they time gap between being "mathematically" safe and being promoted is usually quite short.
Basic thinking regarding being mathematically safe is to have more points than 3 teams could possibly get
Current bottom 3 have 25, 24 & 24 points
They all have 18 games left so each has max of 54 more points - highest of the bottom 3 would be 79
We have 65 points therefore if we keep the comparison to those 3 teams (plus 4th bottom) 14 more points to be out of reach mathematically
All irrelevant as mentioned given the large amount of variants and potential outcomes
 

Me Babbies

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So lets take the average points per game over the season so far and then adjust with the average of the current last 6 games then I think the magic number is 21, How this you ask.

Wolves average to end of season 103pts, current form (last 6), 96 pts, poss end with 99pts.
Derby average to end of season 87pts, current form, 89, poss end with 88pts
Villa av, 82, current 89, poss 85
Fulham av 76, current 94, poss 85.

So, 86 points for promotion, less present points 65, therefore it must be 21, 7 wins.
I could just be guessing.

Check out my Estimated points total thread
 

SmokeyGB

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Looking back at the thread reminds me of an poster who not been seen for a while

glasgowwolf was last seen:
Aug 16, 2011

I hope he's all OK?
Good thread by the way (Sorry for change of direction)
 

Burton Wolf

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Looking back at the thread reminds me of an poster who not been seen for a while

glasgowwolf was last seen:
Aug 16, 2011

I hope he's all OK?
Good thread by the way (Sorry for change of direction)

He posts elsewhere these days, at least he did last time I looked. Hope all is well with yourself? Hows Jim?
 

glorybox

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So lets take the average points per game over the season so far and then adjust with the average of the current last 6 games then I think the magic number is 21, How this you ask.

Wolves average to end of season 103pts, current form (last 6), 96 pts, poss end with 99pts.
Derby average to end of season 87pts, current form, 89, poss end with 88pts
Villa av, 82, current 89, poss 85
Fulham av 76, current 94, poss 85.

So, 86 points for promotion, less present points 65, therefore it must be 21, 7 wins.
I could just be guessing.

This is what I alluded to on the PPG thread...over 85 points gets us promoted
 

Me Babbies

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Just seen your "Estimated points" thread, Great minds think alike, good to see the spread sheet.
Yes it was nice to see someone with the same idea, I'm keeping it updated game by game, would be interesting to see how our methods end up in a few weeks time.
 

marrs-guitar

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Not long now , early April

I only started the thread after the Xmas/New Year games so not at the very start of the month. The magic number at the very start of January would have been 51.

So the month of January saw the promotion target fall by 12 points.

The month contained 4 matchdays (though Cardiff played 1 less) so the target fell by an average of 3 points per matchday despite Wolves actually dropping 5 points from 12.

Based on the January average alone, it would take 13 more matchdays to hit promotion (that being the midweek games of April 10/11th).
 

arctic rime

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I only started the thread after the Xmas/New Year games so not at the very start of the month. The magic number at the very start of January would have been 51.

So the month of January saw the promotion target fall by 12 points.

The month contained 4 matchdays (though Cardiff played 1 less) so the target fell by an average of 3 points per matchday despite Wolves actually dropping 5 points from 12.

Based on the January average alone, it would take 13 more matchdays to hit promotion (that being the midweek games of April 10/11th).

Cheers MG
 

quirky_birky

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Cheers Marrs. Would it be worth adding the points still available to play for, in order to put the Magic Number into context?
 

WinchWolf

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After Wolves 3 Sheffield Utd 0

36

(For the title: 38)

I calculate that the only way a 3rd place team can make it to 103 is if Derby vs Cardiff is a draw and they both win all their other games including their games against us. In this scenario both end up on 103, therefore we would require 104 and go up as champions. We would need 36 points from 14 games or 12W 2L or 11W3D.

If a team reaches 105 then the best a 3rd team can do is 102 (Derby bt Cardiff, Cardiff bt Villa, Derby bt Villa or Cardiff bt Derby, Cardiff bt Villa and Derby bt Villa).
 
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