Magic Number Thread 2017/18

[marrs-guitar]

After Millwall 1 Cardiff 1

35

(For the title: 38)

 

[Houston Lobo]

I love this thread. Makes it feel all the more real.

 

[marrs-guitar]

After Derby 1 Norwich 1 & Wolves 2 QPR 1

31

(For the title: 34)

 

[GoldenHorseshoe]

Keep inching along .

 

[Huge of Sharjah]

Keep inching along .

.

That's been said before.

.

 

[GoldenHorseshoe]

.

That's been said before.

.

Did I?
Sorry mate memory going

 

[Frank Lincoln]

Keep inching along .

Foot by foot.

 

[Huge of Sharjah]

Did I?
Sorry mate memory going

.

Apologies young Sir, your marbles are safe and secure... I should have preceded it with an 'ooer missus'.

.

 

[Burton Wolf]

I'm going to bump this up, as this is reality and it will drop slowly but surely until it is done. Forget all your pie in the sky predictions, this is fact. well done marrs

 

[GoldenHorseshoe]

I'm going to bump this up, as this is reality and it will drop slowly but surely until it is done. Forget all your pie in the sky predictions, this is fact. well done marrs

Agreed Burton, and I'm hoping the number drops again tomorrow with the vile dropping points.

 

[Fuse]

The magic number is now within our current PPG target. We need 34 from 15 games for the title (2.27ppg) and our form over the season has been 71 from 31 (2.29ppg). Maintain our season long form to date and the title is guaranteed ours!

 

[arctic rime]

After Derby 1 Norwich 1 & Wolves 2 QPR 1

31

(For the title: 34)

Dropping nicely

 

[wolvesdb]

After tonights matches it is still 31, but at least Derby lost tonight.

 

[Lupu]

After tonights matches it is still 31, but at least Derby lost tonight.

Yes it was Cardiff winning that kept it as 31.

 

[ShropshireLad]

I've just loved looking at the table these last couple of months and it keeps getting better.

 

[ShropshireLad]

I'm confused. By winning their game in hand, Cardiff would have been 2nd and Villa 3rd. Now Villa are 2nd. Surely the MN has fallen? Do Villa and Cardiff have to play each other?

Google is a wonderful thing, matey. Yes they do on 20th April:
aston villa fixtures 2018-2018

Cardiff's fixtures:
cardiff fixtures 2018

Derby's fixtures:
derby county fixtures 2017 18

Fulham's fixtures:
Fulham's fixtures 2017-2018

 

[Deleted member 6526]

Having to reach 102pts to be guaranteed is still a big ask. 2.07 PPG required for our remaining games. Only one club has a PPG over 2 and that's us obviously. Of course that would only be required in a perfect storm. I am very confident, but the magic number thread somehow makes me less so, is it just me?

 

[wolvesdb]

31 points in 15 games is the MAXIMUM we need to be guaranteed promotion (it will turn out a lot less than this, in reality.)

 

[quirky_birky]

2.07 PPG is still a more realistic target for us than 3 is for two other teams.

 

[rincewind]

Having to reach 102pts to be guaranteed is still a big ask. 2.07 PPG required for our remaining games. Only one club has a PPG over 2 and that's us obviously. Of course that would only be required in a perfect storm. I am very confident, but the magic number thread somehow makes me less so, is it just me?

Think you can relax a bit. It's based on the others winning every remaining game and I will frankly stand in awe if Villa win 22 in a row!! Anyway Villa still play Cardiff and Derby so no 2 of the chasers can win every game which reduces the number for promotion a little (by 2 I think).

 

[marrs-guitar]

After Cardiff 1 Middlesbrough 0, Fulham 2 Aston Villa 0 & Preston 1 Wolves 1

29

(For the title: 32)

 

[GoldenHorseshoe]

After Cardiff 1 Middlesbrough 0, Fulham 2 Aston Villa 0 & Preston 1 Wolves 1

29

(For the title: 32)

If average drop per game = 2 I will be pleased.

 

[marrs-guitar]

If average drop per game = 2 I will be pleased.

Really? I'll be gutted because a 28 point fall from the remaining 14 matchdays will mean we end a point short of promotion.

 

[GoldenHorseshoe]

Really? I'll be gutted because a 28 point fall from the remaining 14 matchdays will mean we end a point short of promotion.

Ok maths off

 

[marrs-guitar]

Just a heads-up that the magic number will not alter tonight regardless of Villa's result because - at present - it still requires Derby and/or Cardiff to drop points to change.

 

[ShropshireLad]

@GoldenHorseshoe wrote If average drop per game = 2 I will be pleased.

Really? I'll be gutted because a 28 point fall from the remaining 14 matchdays will mean we end a point short of promotion.

I reckon 100 points should be enough for promotion, don't you?

 

[GoldenHorseshoe]

I reckon 100 points should be enough for promotion, don't you?

He's talking pure maths not probability. Don't forget the magic number is comprised of points we need to gain added to the points our closest rivals drop.

 

[Mr Chad]

Am I right in thinking that last night's result made no difference to the points needed for promotion and its still 29 ?
I'm trying to follow this myself, but I'm not sure my getting it right. I think if Cardiff and Derby both beat Villa, they can both still get 100 points.

 

[JadeWolf]

Am I right in thinking that last night's result made no difference to the points needed for promotion and its still 29 ?
I'm trying to follow this myself, but I'm not sure my getting it right. I think if Cardiff and Derby both beat Villa, they can both still get 100 points.

Yeah, think @marrs-guitar said last night that the result last night wouldn't change the number. But today's results might!

 

[MonkeySpanner]

Google is a wonderful thing, matey. Yes they do on 20th April:
aston villa fixtures 2018-2018

Cardiff's fixtures:
cardiff fixtures 2018

Derby's fixtures:
derby county fixtures 2017 18

Fulham's fixtures:
Fulham's fixtures 2017-2018

Correct me if I'm wrong but don't Wolves still have to play those teams?

I believe we'll go up but it might not be by the point spread some are predicting.

 

[jrpb-3]

Derby can't get as many point ts as Villa (in 3rd) could have before they dropped 2 pts yesterday, so surely the number for promotion should come down by 1? number for title stays the same

my mistake I think.
(teams still have to play each other, so it might be right ? for villa to get their max, cardiff would drop points so numbers are OK

 

[jrpb-3]

Correct me if I'm wrong but don't Wolves still have to play those teams?

I believe we'll go up but it might not be by the point spread some are predicting.

magic number assumes we will lose those i.e. other teams get the maximum pts they can.

 

[Mr Chad]

Yeah, think @marrs-guitar said last night that the result last night wouldn't change the number. But today's results might!

Thanks, must have not seen Marrs' post.
Hopefully, the figure will come down by at least 3 tonight. Intuitively, it could come down by more if either Cardiff or Derby drop points but I thought that last night as well until I sat and worked it out again . I should probably just wait for Marrs to update the figures, but I get impatient

 

[topcat99]

If Wolves get 96 points (7w 3d 4L):

Derby must finish 12w 2d 0L
Villa must finish 12w 0d 1L
Cardiff must finish 11w 2d1L

And they play each other (and us)

 

[ShropshireLad]

I believe we'll go up but it might not be by the point spread some are predicting.

Me neither. To be champs and to be ahead by a single point is good enough for me.

 

[MonkeySpanner]

magic number assumes we will lose those i.e. other teams get the maximum pts they can.

OK...I'm no mathematician or scholar in general so thank's.

 

[arctic rime]

If Wolves get 96 points (7w 3d 4L):

Derby must finish 12w 2d 0L
Villa must finish 12w 0d 1L
Cardiff must finish 11w 2d1L

And they play each other (and us)

That proves that it’s virtually impossible to lose out unless we hit lower than relegation form.

 

[that bloke there]

I've found myself singing bits of this recently, and it's all your fault, even if it's magic not lucky.

 

[marrs-guitar]

After Derby 2 Leeds 2, Ipswich 0 Cardiff 1 & Wolves 2 Norwich 2

27

(For the title: 31)

 

[marrs-guitar]

After Fulham 2 Wolves 0, Sheffield Wed 2 Aston Villa 4

No change, still 27 points from the target