Who is getting relegated?

[Wonder Boyo]

FiveThirtyEight - the statistical forecasting website run by Nate Silver - has us staying up by a very slim margin. The table is first established by forecasting the outcome of each of the remaining fixtures, based on the strength of the respective teams, and then the model runs simulations to play out the remaining league season 20,000 times to calculate their overall predicted league table.

 

[Macman]

Statistic forecasting is great, but I don’t read anything into them. Teams can suddenly rally, fall, and pick up points when you least expect them to, all because it becomes a massive scrap as the season draws to a close, which brings out so many unexpected results.

We need to average 4 points every 3 games to stay up. Anything less than that and we will be in trouble. Or put another way, we need to win one, and draw one, and can afford to lose one, out of every 3 games.

 

[Deleted member (smith)]

Statistic forecasting is great, but I don’t read anything into them. Teams can suddenly rally, fall, and pick up points when you least expect them to, all because it becomes a massive scrap as the season draws to a close, which brings out so many unexpected results.

We need to average 4 points every 3 games to stay up. Anything less than that and we will be in trouble. Or put another way, we need to win one, and draw one, and can afford to lose one, out of every 3 games.

true

 

[astraltrader]

I really believe that JL will keep us up.

 

[Wonder Boyo]

Reading the transfer window thread is giving me the heebie jeebies. All these bottom half teams paying big money for highly rated players with potential. Including us. Southampton looking at strengthening too. The only team down the bottom not splashing the cash is Everton, but they have a new manager. Fortunately we have a very good manager.

It's going to be a right bun fight to avoid relegation this season. Normally one or two clubs are cut adrift by now, but everyone's bunched up tighter than a group of teenage girls at a Bros concert in 1987. February is a huge month for us due to our fixtures. Think we'll know where our season is heading after the Fulham game on the 24th.

 

[Thank you Sir Jack]

Reading the transfer window thread is giving me the heebie jeebies. All these bottom half teams paying big money for highly rated players with potential. Including us. Southampton looking at strengthening too. The only team down the bottom not splashing the cash is Everton, but they have a new manager. Fortunately we have a very good manager.

It's going to be a right bun fight to avoid relegation this season. Normally one or two clubs are cut adrift by now, but everyone's bunched up tighter than a group of teenage girls at a Bros concert in 1987. February is a huge month for us due to our fixtures. Think we'll know where our season is heading after the Fulham game on the 24th.

Agree with you WB. I hope, but don't necessarily expect us to stay up.
The talk about additions for next season and potential formations, does seem a trifle premature, but it is better to live in hope rather than despondency.

 

[Fenrir_]

Reading the transfer window thread is giving me the heebie jeebies. All these bottom half teams paying big money for highly rated players with potential. Including us. Southampton looking at strengthening too. The only team down the bottom not splashing the cash is Everton, but they have a new manager. Fortunately we have a very good manager.

It's going to be a right bun fight to avoid relegation this season. Normally one or two clubs are cut adrift by now, but everyone's bunched up tighter than a group of teenage girls at a Bros concert in 1987. February is a huge month for us due to our fixtures. Think we'll know where our season is heading after the Fulham game on the 24th.

Everton are in a huge mess and they'll he hoping a trolley dash with the Gordon money can keep them up. I think they might get a Bournemouth/O'Neill type bounce with Dyche initially, then fall back flat to the end of the season

As you say, February is a massive month. If we can take (a very achievable) seven points we can start to get a bit of breathing space and gap the sides in the drop zone. Those two games against Southampton and Bournemouth are huge though

 

[Beijing Wolf]

Forest have had quite a kind run of fixtures recently and it has enabled them to make a gap between themselves and the bottom three. I still think they will drop back into it now with tougher fixtures piling up ahead of them.

I think the lack of squad unity will not help them when they have their “backs to the wall”.

We now also have a decent set of winnable matches coming up and have shown in the Everton and West Ham games that we can get the job done. String a few wins together and that will hopefully create a 5-6 point gap between ourselves and 18th. That should be enough as I don’t not think the teams below us have enough to string 2 or 3 wins together.

 

[Bawtry Wolf]

Reading the transfer window thread is giving me the heebie jeebies. All these bottom half teams paying big money for highly rated players with potential. Including us. Southampton looking at strengthening too. The only team down the bottom not splashing the cash is Everton, but they have a new manager. Fortunately we have a very good manager.

It's going to be a right bun fight to avoid relegation this season. Normally one or two clubs are cut adrift by now, but everyone's bunched up tighter than a group of teenage girls at a Bros concert in 1987. February is a huge month for us due to our fixtures. Think we'll know where our season is heading after the Fulham game on the 24th.

We decided to play a handicap race. I think our players at the start of the season had sufficient quality to achieve mid table comfortably. But to keep it interesting Fosun and Jeff decided to start the season with a manager so far out of his depth that there are ocean trenches that look shallower. To further even up the playing field they decided that a month of a conference manager would be a good experiment. To compound matter we had kept on a Technical Director who wanted to demonstrate that the average mixer knew more about his role than him. I personally think Jeff’s couldn’t get decent odds at the start of the season on us staying up so thought he l’d see if he could improve them for later in the season.

 

[oldgolded]

Simple question. Would Lopetegui leave if we are relegated?

 

[JonahWolf]

Forest have had quite a kind run of fixtures recently and it has enabled them to make a gap between themselves and the bottom three. I still think they will drop back into it now with tougher fixtures piling up ahead of them.

I think the lack of squad unity will not help them when they have their “backs to the wall”.

We now also have a decent set of winnable matches coming up and have shown in the Everton and West Ham games that we can get the job done. String a few wins together and that will hopefully create a 5-6 point gap between ourselves and 18th. That should be enough as I don’t not think the teams below us have enough to string 2 or 3 wins together.

Exactly. We’ve only swapped places with Everton and Southampton because we’ve picked up the vital wins against them.
THE most important job in a relegation battle is beating immediate rivals. We’ve stopped Everton, Southampton, and West Ham having big swings against us by winning those games.
3 points we get and they don’t is massive.

I doubt we’ll string ‘a few wins together’, the league is far too unpredictable for that, but if we can continue to be marginally less crap than those below against the rest of the league, and still get the crucial results, we should end up plenty clear.
The 1.4 PPG so far of Lopetegui is a lot more than the rest at the bottom. Only lost to the 2 Manchester clubs, who along with Arsenal, are currently the best 3 in the division by a distance.

 

[wwbug]

A big part of me thinks if we aren’t in the relegation zone now and we have to play the same guys again with a stronger squad and much improved management, we aren’t going to be in the relegation zone at the end. .
With one proviso, we have played Man City twice but not Liverpool at all. That tilts slightly in our favour IMO

 

[Wolf in Kenilworth]

Not us.

The end.

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

I really believe that JL will keep us up.

I hope so as a team with Neves, Nunes, Semedo, Gomes, Sarabia and Neto should not be in a relegation mix.

 

[wwbug]

I hope so as a team with Neves, Nunes, Semedo, Gomes, Sarabia and Neto should not be in a relegation mix.

Declaims the power of a finisher .

 

[PortugueseTennesseeWolf]

Is anyone else concerned with the Dyche appointment? I was really hoping Bielsa would be appointed. I had Southampton, Bournemouth and Everton going down. Now concerned about Everton surviving and who the 3rd team will be. I hope we start scoring goals and winning ASAP.

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

Declaims the power of a finisher .

Unfortunately virtually every thread and post seems to come back to this? You'd hope now with this array of mf talent they could assist a few goals and get a few themselves?

 

[FJRWolf]

Is anyone else concerned with the Dyche appointment? I was really hoping Bielsa would be appointed. I had Southampton, Bournemouth and Everton going down. Now concerned about Everton surviving and who the 3rd team will be. I hope we start scoring goals and winning ASAP.

I think that he's there best hope of survival but they've left it too late. He'll make them harder to beat but I just dont think they'll score enough goals. Also doubt there's enough time to get re-inforcements to suit his style.

 

[wwbug]

Its difficult to predict based on a very different team and a very different manager.

 

[wwbug]

Pretty certain we would have gone down without this massive overhaul .

 

[The Wolf In The North]

Dyche doesn't have to do much to improve over Lampard, Everton have a solid chance of stopping up now. It's annoying that Forest and Southampton have found some form, but they'll slide again at some point. Bournemouth already struggling. Going to be a right slugfest this year.

 

[Matt]

They have a better chance of staying up with Dyche than with Lampard but they’re still bang in trouble. Same as we have a better chance under JL than we did under Lage… but we’re still in trouble.

It will go down to the wire, I don’t see any of the bottom 6 pulling clear.

 

[Wednesbury Wolf]

There isn't one side who you can say are definitely going down, it may well come down to the last weekend and goal difference.

 

[Oh When the Wolves]

We will be on 29 points by end of Feb needing 2-3 wins to stay up

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

Look at the next batch of games for Leicester there in the mix too

 

[Adrian_Monk]

Dyche being appointed doesn't concern me a great deal. If he'd have been appointed here I'd have been preparing myself for the championship - instead we got a manager with a far better track record that hasn't been out of the game for a good while.

I am still concerned about relegation, as we should be. Whilst the improvements are plain to see, both qualitatively in terms of performances and quantitatively in terms of metrics, without a great deal of options in the central striker position I still have concerns about our ability to score, and this was magnified in the Villa and United games in particular, but also to a degree against Liverpool and West Ham where we missed good opportunities but also seemed to lack the confidence to commit players to kill the game off. We aren't always looking comfortable with the things JL is asking us to do, as you would expect at this early stage, but the reasons for concern are perfectly justified. The only saving grace is other teams at the bottom are having the same problems, but then they wouldn't be at the bottom if they weren't.

 

[clivewolves]

The last weekend of the season could be interesting with a few clubs in the relegation mix. Never mind squeaky bum time, there'll that many people ****ting themselves some grounds will be looking like an IRA dirty protest has taken place.

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

There are 3 basic ways to look at this.

1. Statistical analysis based on previous performance - guess what, we end up in the same place we are now, so does everyone else, we survive (just).

2. 'The bookies', which really means the average idea of people willing to have a bet on it. Some of those are carefully analysing the situation, some are just backing their own team to go down or stay up.

3. Looking at how teams have strengthened this window. I'd say we've upgraded the manager and the squad better than anyone. So if you add that into 1, then we really should be safe.

My only caveat is that in reality IMO we're actually lucky to have as many points as we have. WHAM is the only game this season that I could honestly put my hand on my heart and say we definitely deserved to win.

 

[Ned]

If we start scoring goals then I have no fears of relegation.
If we don’t start scoring goals then we will draw/lose too many by the odd goal and will be in this battle until the end of the season.

 

[Ned]

Watching Southampton the last few weeks, I don’t think they’re the certainty to go down that I thought they were. Our game away to them is a horrible one to get at this stage of the season but it really is one we need to win.

 

[Deleted member (smith)]

It looks like any 3 from the bottom 7 but palace are not entirely safe because there is a lot of football left to play. The real issue is that suddenly all of the bottom seven look capable of winning games and escaping …current form suggests Bournemouth Everton and Southampton but who can tell…we will see how how our new squad get on and February must bring some wins plural

 

[Hawkguy]

If Onuachu can score for Southampton even half of what he was scoring in Belgium, it could be a scary finish the the season.

Dyche has the hardest job, IMO, but will probably stable the ship to at least get some more single points.

Nottingham Forest - I don't even know how they have a squad. Signed so many players, you'd think players would not be getting along. But it's somewhat worked so far for them. And as much as I'd like the 10 million from MGW, I'd rather they just go down.

As much as it was an insane window for us, it was also a very good window for a lot of other teams - and I'm still not 100% sure where our goals come from aside from Sarabia.

 

[manchesterwolf17]

18 - Leeds
19 - Forest
20 - Bournemouth

It's easy to forget we're just about half way through the season. Those 3 sides are the weakest in this league.

 

[The House of Wolves]

Not us.

 

[VancouverWolf]

No two ways about it……Wolves are in a serious survival situation, regardless of some posters’ confidence. Hope, confidence, unfounded optimism, praying, rabbits’ feet, good luck charms, superstition rituals etc will not play a part in this.

At this point there is NO definitive sign to say we will survive………none. It’s gonna be close.

And to think I was extremely disappointed when we finished 13th. with Nuno………jeez, .I would take 13th. now in a heartbeat.

 

[CelebrityWolf]

No two ways about it……Wolves are in a serious survival situation, regardless of some posters’ confidence. Hope, confidence, unfounded optimism, praying, rabbits’ feet, good luck charms, superstition rituals etc will not play a part in this.

At this point there is NO definitive sign to say we will survive………none. It’s gonna be close.

And to think I was extremely disappointed when we finished 13th. with Nuno………jeez, .I would take 13th. now in a heartbeat.

The definitive sign to me is that we have a far better squad than many around us and a superior manager.

 

[CelebrityWolf]

If Onuachu can score for Southampton even half of what he was scoring in Belgium, it could be a scary finish the the season.

Dyche has the hardest job, IMO, but will probably stable the ship to at least get some more single points.

Nottingham Forest - I don't even know how they have a squad. Signed so many players, you'd think players would not be getting along. But it's somewhat worked so far for them. And as much as I'd like the 10 million from MGW, I'd rather they just go down.

As much as it was an insane window for us, it was also a very good window for a lot of other teams - and I'm still not 100% sure where our goals come from aside from Sarabia.

You would rather Forest go down than get an extra 10 million? Why?

 

[VancouverWolf]

The definitive sign to me is that we have a far better squad than many around us and a superior manager.

That works for you and I wish I had your peace of mind but I don’t………hopefully soon.

 

[VancouverWolf]

You would rather Forest go down than get an extra 10 million? Why?

Well if Forest go down, then leaves only two spots that Wolves have to try to avoid. Staying up is worth way more than @£10m. Anything that helps us is ok with me.

 

[CelebrityWolf]

We will finish 15th or above. Forest can do what they like.