Optimum time to sack a manager?

[northnorfolkwolf]

Watching Gracia walking away at the end tonight got me thinking that evidence seems to show that sacking a manager late in the season does not work. Without checking the stats I'd say Soton, Leicester, Everton and Leeds are in as bad a position now as when they sacked their manager. Frank has lost his first 3 games at Chelsea. Spurs have not revived under their new guy. Against that Roy has won his first 3 and Bournemouth really are bucking the trend but I think my argument still stands.
If this is so the enormous cost and the disruption inside the club with the introduction of a new man will not prove to be a wise decision in both the long and short term imo. It is surely best to change managers in the summer when there is time to reflect, plan and build for the coming season. I'd say we brought JL in about as late as we could leave it for him to have any positive effect. Soton, Leicester, Everton and Leeds have been near the bottom all season so should have followed our example and done the deed a good deal earlier. Not too sure what to say about Forest; they have decided to stick with Cooper who will, I'm sure, take them down which perhaps proves my point that had they binned him before Xmas they may be in with a better chance of staying up.
At the end of the day all I care about is Wolves so these clubs prevaricating has played right into our hands. Happy days!

 

[JadeWolf]

I reckon as soon as the January window shuts you’re probably best off sticking with your manager until the end of the season.

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

When Dean Smith is the alternative, definitely stick with what you've got.

Roy's done well though!

 

[Wolf316]

When Dean Smith is the alternative, definitely stick with what you've got.

Roy's done well though!

To be fair Roy came into a club he knows well and has a wealth of experience.

 

[Contrarian]

What about Palace, though?

However, I'm fairly sure it's been statistically proven over time, that the majority of manager changes don't change much. It's mostly down to the actual players, so a new manager usually needs significant new signings. Else things carry on much as before, perhaps with a short "new manager bounce", like the clubs you listed.

So the summer break is best. Followed by the winter break, ideally just before . Exactly as we did, helped even more by the World Cup break.

On Palace, Vierra must be truly abysmal or Hodgson a genius. Maybe it helps that he knows the club? I do think such a transformation as they've seen is less common. Could be that key players back from injury help as wel. Eze, for example at Palace.

 

[Ponty]

It’s pretty simple. The success or failure is totally dependent on who you appoint.

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

Sticking with Moyes paid for West Ham as for Leicester seems things are stale

Leeds took a risk and could pay for it

It’s about taking risks and getting lucky you need both elements

 

[Leigh72]

Palace have also played 3 of the bottom 5

 

[TheConcourse]

It’s pretty simple. The success or failure is totally dependent on who you appoint.

This.

We got very, very lucky with timing. Who knows who would have come out of Jeff’s tombola if the stars didn’t align with JL.

Feel like Leicester pulled the trigger at the wrong time with Rodgers too. He would have kept them up IMO. They’ve replaced him with an utter car crash of a manager and backroom team.

 

[Cookyssweetleftfoot]

I reckon as soon as the January window shuts you’re probably best off sticking with your manager until the end of the season.

Unless his name is Dean Saunders

 

[Cookyssweetleftfoot]

To be fair Roy came into a club he knows well and has a wealth of experience.

Roy also came in to Palace just when they were about to start supposedly the easiest set of games of any team in the league, but you are right that he knows a lot of the players and the club very well.

 

[Cookyssweetleftfoot]

This.

We got very, very lucky with timing. Who knows who would have come out of Jeff’s tombola if the stars didn’t align with JL.

Feel like Leicester pulled the trigger at the wrong time with Rodgers too. He would have kept them up IMO. They’ve replaced him with an utter car crash of a manager and backroom team.

Leicester have some very winnable games coming up so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Smith keep them up.
Really hope we can take at least a point against them to maintain that healthy cushion we have built up over the last two weekends.

 

[Scallywolf]

Leicester have some very winnable games coming up so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Smith keep them up.
Really hope we can take at least a point against them to maintain that healthy cushion we have built up over the last two weekends.

Leicester might be daft enough to appoint him as full time manager if he does keep them up!

 

[Cookyssweetleftfoot]

Leicester might be daft enough to appoint him as full time manager if he does keep them up!

We can only hope

 

[Royal wolf]

Football is about moments as much as anything. if palace didn’t get that last minute winner in Roy’s first game everything could’ve been different.

 

[Ned]

If a manager gets sacked after, say, February then the board have messed up massively.

 

[Frank Lincoln]

I am not sure there is any definition of when it is right to sack a manager. Often luck and player’s attitudes have a large bearing in these events. I often hear that a certain manager has lost the dressing room. If that is happening, then I suppose changes must be made, as per Paul Ince at Reading. But generally, I think it is a big gamble to make the change after the transfer window has closed. A new manager will want to bring in players he knows and trusts, and improve his playing squad.

Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Leicester City have taken a big gamble changing managers with only a handful of games left. It may work, or it may not. Though to be fair, it has certainly worked at Selhurst Park.

Personally, I think clubs are often too hasty to pull the trigger. But such is the amount of money floating around in the Premier League that top flight clubs often panic and sack their manager and hope things improve. That is not always the case.

 

[SteveBullsKnee]

I think it purely depends on the manager being replaced. Some either run out of ideas or lose the dressing room (or worse both) and end up looking nailed on to go down regardless so you might as well spin the dice and hope for a miracle. Palace had an educated gamble on Roy and flip side is West Ham have backed Moyes to get them out of it. Rodgers looked like he was taking Leicester down regardless, so they might as well hope the new manager bounce gamble works.

 

[Rowzed]

When you know you’ve got someone better in the bag, same with anything, be prepared and don’t take a leap in the dark, they rarely end well

 

[theweave]

Does sacking a manager while in relegation zone improve Premier League survival hopes?

Premier League clubs have sacked a record-breaking 12 managers this season; only 42 per cent of teams retain top-flight status after axing manager while in the relegation zone; ratio plummets to just 15 per cent for rock-bottom clubs; changes before turn of calendar year reap most success

www.skysports.com

 

[Gazebowolf]

There are simply too many variables for there to be an optimum time to sack a manager, or head coach as most are called now. Factors included who is the replacement, players at their disposal, amount of overall control they have, the fixture list. Regarding the fixture list tjis season was obviously very different due to the world cup so us and Villa benefited immensely by that. The same could have applied to Southampton but they replaced Hasenhuttl with a clown who failed at Stoke, so as mentioned above it depends on who you bring in.

At times a lot is said about a 'new manager bounce' and that teams seem to pick up points immediately when appointing a new manager, so on that basis why don't clubs sack managers every few games, a la Watford?

 

[Frank Lincoln]

Port Vale have sacked their manager this morning. They only have 4 more games to play, so I cannot understand the logic in that. They are 6 points above the relegation zone, though they have a difficult run in. But what can an interim manager be expected to do in such a short space of time?

 

[Flump]

Port Vale have sacked their manager this morning. They only have 4 more games to play, so I cannot understand the logic in that. They are 6 points above the relegation zone, though they have a difficult run in. But what can an interim manager be expected to do in such a short space of time?

Lopetegui beat everton and West Ham, and got a draw against Villa in his first 4 games (he obviously did have the advantage of the WC break though). Or Hodgson has won his first 3 games in a row. If you think you can get a significant upgrade, it would be tempting.

However, in Port Vale's case it's probably just mindless panicking!

 

[topcat99]

If you are considering Dean Saunders, the optimum time to sack him is 5 seconds after his appointment.

Then go and give your head a wobble

 

[Norman Bell]

I think it purely depends on the manager being replaced. Some either run out of ideas or lose the dressing room (or worse both) and end up looking nailed on to go down regardless so you might as well spin the dice and hope for a miracle. Palace had an educated gamble on Roy and flip side is West Ham have backed Moyes to get them out of it. Rodgers looked like he was taking Leicester down regardless, so they might as well hope the new manager bounce gamble works.

I agree with Danny Murphy where David Moyes is concerned when he said if West Ham fired him they would be looking for a short term firefighter to come in and the best one out now Roy is at Palace would be ............. Davie Moyes !

Personally, I think David Moyes will keep West Ham up, then at the end of the season he will be off into the sunset !

 

[Golden Oldie]

If you are considering Dean Saunders, the optimum time to sack him is 5 seconds after his appointment.

Then go and give your head a wobble

Where did he get to, or where has he got to? I seem to recall he was tapped up on a golf course somewhere .... if so he might be playing off par by now ..... more chance of that than succeeding as a manager of a PL club!

 

[topcat99]

Where did he get to, or where has he got to? I seem to recall he was tapped up on a golf course somewhere .... if so he might be playing off par by now ..... more chance of that than succeeding as a manager of a PL club!

Spouting crap on TalkSport last time I heard

 

[SteveBullsKnee]

Spouting crap on TalkSport last time I heard

Yeah he was on yesterday morning talking about the interim spurs boss and that he’s out of his depth and he’d do a better job. He was that useless I’m not even annoyed anymore at how bad he was.

 

[Rauls Headband]

Maybe the question isn't when is it the optimum time to sack a manager, but more how do you know its the manager that's the problem?

Fosun and Shi were brutal during the WC break, but you also have to give them credit they realised we had issues wider than just Bruno Lage and replaced many of the backroom staff too as well as recruitment.

You also have the issue of players too. Man U have been much better since Ronaldo departed. I'd suggest Spurs would also be better off for getting rid of Kane (who has admitted as much his attitude towards Nuno stank and contributed to his sacking).

And of course it also depends on the clubs position. You could argue the summer break is an optimal time, but then if you're mid table, you're not competing for anything, you're not going to get relegated, then get someone in much earlier so they have much more time to work with the squad.

But then to argue with myself, look at the job Roy Hodgson is doing at Palace.

A huge part to play too is also the 'culture' at a club and how this impacts the players.

 

[Polish Wolf]

Roy Hodgson worked for Palace only because he knows the club inside out and has worked with many of the players. He was not sacked in the previous stint, he just retired. The relationship with the people inside the club, including players was possibly very good at the time and remained so. A very respected figure comes back to steady the ship he once commanded - that may work.

Apart from that, the only other time to sack the manager is before the January transfer window, otherwise it makes little sense in my opinion. In general, the sooner in the season the club executives realize that the current setup doesn't work, the better.

 

[Flump]

But then to argue with myself, look at the job Roy Hodgson is doing at Palace.

Roy Hodgson worked for Palace only because he knows the club inside out and has worked with many of the players.

Also helped that Viera's last few fixtures were:

Arsenal
Brighton
City
Villa
Liverpool
Brentford
Brighton
Man U

While Roy's have been:

Leicester
Leeds
Southampton

 

[The Professor]

Spouting crap on TalkSport last time I heard

I remember him saying that Forest would easily finish top 10 before the start of the season...

 

[Clipboard]

Also helped that Viera's last few fixtures were:

Arsenal
Brighton
City
Villa
Liverpool
Brentford
Brighton
Man U

While Roy's have been:

Leicester
Leeds
Southampton

Brutal

 

[WolvesAreBoringOnCeefax]

I believe in continuity and giving time, but I have heard before there are strong stats to say that if a manager doesn't get off to a good start they're unlikely to ever really manage it, and it's best to be ruthless and move on again.

 

[The Wolf In The North]

Piggy-backing on this thread, there's going to be some crazy musical chairs this summer. I'm no longer even sure who's interim and who interisn't, but there are so many names in the hat for new jobs.

Julian Nagelsmann - first choice for Chelsea unless he can find something better.

Roberto De Zerbi - a sensible fellow would stay at continue the good work at Brighton, but Spurs and Chelsea could well take a punt.

Graham Potter - found out at Chelsea, but likely ideal for Leicester, Palace or West Ham.

Brendan Rodgers - star has waned but still has a high pedigree and will want to stay in the PL.

Michael Carrick - the current next big thing, young, English and well-connected, if Middlesbrough don't go up then he'll surely be poached.

Vincent Kompany - can't see him leaving Burnley but you never know in football if a big club come knocking.

David Moyes - rumoured to be leaving West Ham regardless of whether they stay up, and like Rodgers, will want to stay in the PL.

Thomas Frank - synonymous wirh Brentford, but he can't keep them punching above their weight forever, especially with a likely ban looming for Toney, and may want to trade in while his stock his high. He's a ****, though.

Patrick Vieira, Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard, Jesse Marsch, Scott Parker - all failed to one degree or another, but if Dean Smith can reappear in the PL, then I wouldn't bet against any of these getting another spin of the wheel.

The only managers relatively safe are Pep (unless Man City get thumped with heavy sanctions), Arteta, Howe, Emery, Ten Hag and Lopetegui. Klopp, Silva and O'Neil should be, but we all know how weird football is.

Optimum is one thing, but this summer is going to be a mad old scramble, I reckon.

 

[Flump]

Vincent Kompany - can't see him leaving Burnley but you never know in football if a big club come knocking.

He's favourite for the Spurs job, unbelievably.

Obviously they really value an excellent Championship season, given how lovingly they embraced Nuno.

 

[SmokeyGB]

If you are considering Dean Saunders, the optimum time to sack him is 5 seconds after his appointment.

Then go and give your head a wobble

Need to make it a double sacking then, as i would sack the person who bloody made him manager.
Ink wouldn't be dry on the leave card.

 

[SmokeyGB]

Not wanting to make a new thread just for the sake of it..

Does anyone think that the transfer window should also apply to Managers?
You can only change Manager same time as selling players?

 

[Kashmire Hawker]

Walsall have deemed it now, with Michael Flynn dismissed post a 3-0 loss to Harrogate Town last night.

Club Statement: Michael Flynn

Walsall Football Club have today parted company with Head Coach Michael Flynn.

www.saddlers.co.uk

 

[Jonzy54]

Walsall have deemed it now, with Michael Flynn dismissed post a 3-0 loss to Harrogate Town last night.

Club Statement: Michael Flynn

Walsall Football Club have today parted company with Head Coach Michael Flynn.

www.saddlers.co.uk

With 3 games left to go