Henry Palfrey
Just doesn't shut up
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- Dec 7, 2009
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Virgil Van Dijk fee agreed apparently. Southampton to Liverpool £75m
That's an insane amount of money.
Come on though, be fair, he won't have to get by on that. There'll be appearance money too. He won't be as bad off as it sounds."Personal terms of £180,000 a week are likely to be a formality"
We'll never compete with the big guns for players, unless we establish ourselves at the top table by winning a fair few top division titles over the next 10 years, which you can only really do by signing said players.
Catch 22, WV9! What price range do you see Wolves being in, average Prem players are going for around 30 mill? I find it quite scary the thought of having to pay such inflated prices and the way they ballooned after the Neymar transfer.
Have you been on the beer already today?There’s plenty of players out there that increase in value rapidly from humble beginnings, Vardy, Drinkwater, Maguire, Livermore, Clucas, Michael Keane. Who’s to say Doherty won’t be sold for 30m in a season’s time?
My feeling is that Fosun, with help from Jorge, will continue to source players like Neves, Jota, Boly, Cav, Costa and Vinagre. All will be comfortable in the higher reaches of the Prem particularly as they mature and will not cost a fortune compared to others. This philosophy could see us competing for a place in the Champions League but not as Premier League champions as Citeh are on a different planet.Catch 22, WV9! What price range do you see Wolves being in, average Prem players are going for around 30 mill? I find it quite scary the thought of having to pay such inflated prices and the way they ballooned after the Neymar transfer.
Makes Boly look an even bigger bargain at the reported 6million fee
My feeling is that Fosun, with help from Jorge, will continue to source players like Neves, Jota, Boly, Cav, Costa and Vinagre. All will be comfortable in the higher reaches of the Prem particularly as they mature and will not cost a fortune compared to others. This philosophy could see us competing for a place in the Champions League but not as Premier League champions as Citeh are on a different planet.
I see us in a similar range to Leicester and Southampton really, happy to spend a lot of money on a quality player but not getting into bidding wars with the big 6 and paying £75million on an average centre half.Catch 22, WV9! What price range do you see Wolves being in, average Prem players are going for around 30 mill? I find it quite scary the thought of having to pay such inflated prices and the way they ballooned after the Neymar transfer.
That’s exactly where we’ll be imo and I’m happy with that to be honestI see us in a similar range to Leicester and Southampton really, happy to spend a lot of money on a quality player but not getting into bidding wars with the big 6 and paying £75million on an average centre half.
Yup and a case of one step at a time. There's nothing to say Wolves won't get better and become bigger as such but steady away as they say.That’s exactly where we’ll be imo and I’m happy with that to be honest
HicHave you been on the beer already today?
I don't know if anyone else has noticed but LFC are no longer the team in the top flight that's likely to win the title as they were years ago. They currently sit 4th and a place in next seasons Europpean Cup is not a guarantee as yet unless they win the cup this season and I honestly don't think they will. They are spending crazy sums to try and stay in touch and just about clinging in there.
Could we potentially do similar to allow us to compete on a financial level using Fosun's portfolio to disguise it as outside investment?
Sign of the times I'm afraid Essex. There is a big gulf now between the top six and the rest of the league in terms of spending power and with the exception of Leicester's anomaly season, there's a strong correlation between level of spending and league position. Nobody can generate enough revenue to realistically compete with these top six clubs without breaching Financial Fair Play rules. The only clubs that come close in terms of spending power are Everton who spent £127m in the summer, but in reality that's very little when you consider the £100m they had come in from sales including top scorer Lukaku.
Last season for instance: (https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/01/premier-league-finances-club-by-club)
Compare that to the clubs supposedly trying to bridge the gap:
- Arsenal £354m turnover - £195m on wages (55% of turnover)
- Chelsea £335m turnover - £224m on wages (67% of turnover)
- Liverpool £302m turnover - £208m on wages (69% of turnover)
- Man City £392m turnover - £198m on wages (51% of turnover)
- Man United £515m turnover - £232m on wages (45% of turnover)
- Spurs £210m turnover - £100m on wages (48% of turnover)
It's not just about TV revenues, that actually makes very little difference when it comes to the top clubs. Man City plugged the gap by acquiring the naming rights for Etihad Stadium - £400m over 10 seasons. That deal was almost double the previous all-time record of US$300 million (£187 million) for the world-famous Madison Square Garden in New York. Now they've established themselves as Premier League heavyweights, income from matchdays, retail and commercial means, and broadcasting rights have gone through the roof and they can sustainably compete at the very top for years to come. But for the 2012 and 2013 seasons combined, they posted losses of £149m resulting in fines of £49m and a cap on transfer spending. Last two seasons they've net spent nearly £400m, Man United net spent £250m. Chelsea's net spend was only £20m in the same period.
- Everton £122m turnover - £84m on wages (69% of turnover)
- Southampton £124m turnover - £85m on wages (69% of turnover)
When you break it down:
- Arsenal - £107m retail/commercial, £100m matchday income, £141m broadcasting rights (£348m)
- Chelsea - £122m retail/commercial, £70m matchday income, £143m broadcasting rights (£335m)
- Liverpool - £116m retail/commercial, £62m matchday income, £124m broadcasting rights (£302m)
- Man City - £178m retail/commercial, £53m matchday income, £161m broadcasting rights (£392m)
- Man United - £268m retail/commercial, £107m matchday income, £140m broadcasting rights (£515m)
- Spurs - £59m retail/commercial, £41m matchday income, £94m broadcasting rights (£204m)
Compare that with the Southampton model which we could realistically replicate without breaking the bank like Man City did:
So clearly major commercial deals and big internal investment allowed Man City to break into that elite and now sustainably spend massive amounts on transfers to compete at the very top. How could Wolves bridge that gap or are we more likely to replicate Southampton's selling club model of buying low and selling high through a strong academy and scouting infrastructure? Man City had £265m invested from a Chinese consortium and £400m for naming rights to the stadium. Could we potentially do similar to allow us to compete on a financial level using Fosun's portfolio to disguise it as outside investment?
- £12m retail/commercial, £19m matchday income, £90m broadcasting rights (£121m)
This is a good post with lots of figures, highlighting the amount of money teams are making and spending. It’s interesting to see and the numbers are large. They are not large when you consider Fosun made an operating profit of over $1billion in a year and have just spent over $850mill on TsingTao.
No doubt it would be near on impossible in the short to medium term to equal the mathday income of the top teams, but we could match the commercial and broadcasting rights very quickly. Where Wolves’ huge advantages lie are in the link up with Mendes, the fact we don’t already have any average players on huge wages in our squad (Average players yes, but not on £100k per week) and the fact Fosun have multiple companies that could all provide commercial revenue.
A few things make me believe we will try/can and will break into the elite group you have mentioned.:
1) The current Spain manager was going to join us last year.
2) The Porto manager did join us this year.
3) Ruben Neves joining a team that had finished 15th.
4) Helder Costa signing in January and then not leaving this summer.
Something persuaded these people to join and I don’t think it was the Southampton/Leicester model.
£75mill on Van Dijk is astronomical but that’s what you get buying in this country. Much like Assombalonga, McCormack and Hogan all being over £10mill. This is where Mendes will help us. Firstly we won’t shop in the stupid overpriced British market and secondly I can see us starting to boost our academy. We are rumoured to be buying Jota for around £10mill. He’s 21 years old. When Salah was 21 he had been at Basle for 1 year. He cost Liverpool about £45million this summer. When Mané was 21 he was at Salzburg. He cost Liverpool £34million last summer. What I’m saying is, if you have a good enough scouting network and contacts (Uncle Jorge and friends) you don’t need to waste your money buying players for obscene amounts, you get them early ie. Vinagre.
Of course I expect us to buy some ready made players but they are out there and at decent prices. Take Boly as an example. Is Van Dijk who is the same age as Boly, worth 10x the price of Boly? Last year Porto (Nuno) bought Alex Telles from Galatasaray for €6mill. This year Man City bought Walker for over £50mill. Now Walker is good but is he worth nearly 10x the amount whilst being 2 years older?
I won’t go on but Wolves can compete at a fraction of the cost and that is what I think will happen. Over time we will evolve and I can see us following the Chelsea model rather than the Southampton or Liverpool model. Chelsea spend big on top players like Morata whereas Liverpool spend big on decent players like Van Dijk. Chelsea produce lots of players or bring them in young (Lukaku, De Bruyne, Salah), Liverpool produce **** like Ojo.
The most important thing at a football club is the staff and from Jeff Shi’s comments not that long back he realises that. Competent staff will save us millions and allow us to compete. Combine that with our contacts and we can pick up top quality players for the present and future at a fraction of the cost that teams like Liverpool will pay. Morgan was actually not that wrong with his idea of investing in the academy for sustainability. The problem Morgan had was that he didn’t realise you needed to build the rest of the club up to a sustainable position as well, or he just didn’t have the funds and expertise to do that. Fosun do.
This is a good post with lots of figures, highlighting the amount of money teams are making and spending. It’s interesting to see and the numbers are large. They are not large when you consider Fosun made an operating profit of over $1billion in a year and have just spent over $850mill on TsingTao.
No doubt it would be near on impossible in the short to medium term to equal the mathday income of the top teams, but we could match the commercial and broadcasting rights very quickly. Where Wolves’ huge advantages lie are in the link up with Mendes, the fact we don’t already have any average players on huge wages in our squad (Average players yes, but not on £100k per week) and the fact Fosun have multiple companies that could all provide commercial revenue.
A few things make me believe we will try/can and will break into the elite group you have mentioned.:
1) The current Spain manager was going to join us last year.
2) The Porto manager did join us this year.
3) Ruben Neves joining a team that had finished 15th.
4) Helder Costa signing in January and then not leaving this summer.
Something persuaded these people to join and I don’t think it was the Southampton/Leicester model.
£75mill on Van Dijk is astronomical but that’s what you get buying in this country. Much like Assombalonga, McCormack and Hogan all being over £10mill. This is where Mendes will help us. Firstly we won’t shop in the stupid overpriced British market and secondly I can see us starting to boost our academy. We are rumoured to be buying Jota for around £10mill. He’s 21 years old. When Salah was 21 he had been at Basle for 1 year. He cost Liverpool about £45million this summer. When Mané was 21 he was at Salzburg. He cost Liverpool £34million last summer. What I’m saying is, if you have a good enough scouting network and contacts (Uncle Jorge and friends) you don’t need to waste your money buying players for obscene amounts, you get them early ie. Vinagre.
Of course I expect us to buy some ready made players but they are out there and at decent prices. Take Boly as an example. Is Van Dijk who is the same age as Boly, worth 10x the price of Boly? Last year Porto (Nuno) bought Alex Telles from Galatasaray for €6mill. This year Man City bought Walker for over £50mill. Now Walker is good but is he worth nearly 10x the amount whilst being 2 years older?
I won’t go on but Wolves can compete at a fraction of the cost and that is what I think will happen. Over time we will evolve and I can see us following the Chelsea model rather than the Southampton or Liverpool model. Chelsea spend big on top players like Morata whereas Liverpool spend big on decent players like Van Dijk. Chelsea produce lots of players or bring them in young (Lukaku, De Bruyne, Salah), Liverpool produce **** like Ojo.
The most important thing at a football club is the staff and from Jeff Shi’s comments not that long back he realises that. Competent staff will save us millions and allow us to compete. Combine that with our contacts and we can pick up top quality players for the present and future at a fraction of the cost that teams like Liverpool will pay. Morgan was actually not that wrong with his idea of investing in the academy for sustainability. The problem Morgan had was that he didn’t realise you needed to build the rest of the club up to a sustainable position as well, or he just didn’t have the funds and expertise to do that. Fosun do.
Good post, and interesting that you think we should emulate Chelsea. Obviously the advantage Abramovich had was that FFP was only implemented in 2011-12, and by the time that came around he'd already established them as a top Premier League side. But as you say, they do have an excellent scouting network and while many have gone through the net in recent years, they've not only spent big in recent years but also matched that with income from player sales by signing players at the right age just as they are beginning to blossom rather than when they were at their peak.
We could go up, sign 9-10 players permanently/on loan with a view-to-buy and if only 2 of these players excelled to the level of Neves/Jota their value could be £30, £40 or even £50 million in the space of a year. I think the problem with Southampton's model is that they've sold their best players and not stepped up their spending to move up a level. With the increased turnover they had a greater capacity to spend within the means of FFP, but they opted to take the majority of it as a profit.
If you want to break into the elite of the Premier League you simply have to maximise your expenditure and operate at breakeven/at a loss for a period of time as Man City initially did in order to gradually reduce the difference in quality of players. Let's remember how difficult it was for them to initially attract the calibre of player needed to compete at the top - Robinho was the catalyst for Man City almost a decade ago and within a year they'd also signed Adebayor, Tevez, Lescott and Toure. We may have to do similar in order to appeal above other clubs looking to do the same outside of that top six, or outside of Europe.
Financing that level of expenditure without being in breach of UEFA's FFP regulations is the biggest dilemma of them all, so although controversial I wouldn't be surprised if the stadium was renamed in a naming rights deal to fund it, or if Fosun's subsidiaries are involved in lucrative sponsorship deals as was the case with Man City before they came to prominence and the major sponsors started coming to them allowing them to sustainably compete at the top with their levels of spending.
I think signing a marquee player like Robinho is key and will not only boost our profile and thus ability to attract other players, but also act as a stimulus for fan base growth and commercial revenue. I have said it a few times but I think we will sign Ronaldo in the summer. People can laugh at it, but Man City kept trying to sign Kaka who at the time was the best player in the world because they knew that they needed a world superstar. An ageing Ronaldo whilst still being superb but not as good as he was, would pay for itself and could be win win. Shirt sales, new fans at home and abroad, larger crowds, marketing, it’s exactly what Fosun would want. Signing someone like that would allow them to charge huge amounts for sponsorship rights and not only that, he would carry us into the top 4 singlehandedly.
With regard to Chelsea and FFP, I agree with what you say about Ambramovich having the luxury of not having to abide by FFP in his early years, however we could potentially benefit from FFP. What I mean by that is there are always winners and losers from it. Take Porto and AC Milan. They have both ****ed up and as a result we signed Neves on the cheap and who’s to say we won’t sign someone like Andre Silva on the cheap? FFP could help us. This season only 4 of Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool and Arsenal will reach the champions league. If Liverpool miss out whilst spending £75 mill on Van Dijk, £45mill on Salah, £30mill on The Ox and £66mill for Keita already agreed for next summer, they could be screwed too. I can’t see the current top 6 teams all maintaining their spending and we could sneak in their like vultures when they kill themselves.
With regard to sponsorships I agree completely. This is one area Fosun have it sorted. Official beer TsingTao. Official travel Thomas Cook. Official financier Banco Commercial Portugese. Official entertainment Cirque du solei. Official insurer Fiddlidaide. Official medical Fosun Pharmaceutical. Official kids club Silvercross. Official merchandise Foli Follie Etc etc etc.
We have sponsorships coming out of our ears potentially. Fosun are clever and I think the scale of their plans and how they are going to achieve them is only just starting to be realised. At first people dismissed us, then they tried to put us down, now they can’t not notice us and soon they will fear us.