Fletcher, Doyle, Jarvis to stay

[The Weasel]

If we get a £10m bid for either Fletcher or Jarvis, or a money-back bid on Doyle/O'Hara/Johnson/Milijas/Zubar (and possibly others) I think the club will take it. Fletcher and Jarvis will potentially attract a premium right now for playing well in the Prem in a bottom of the table side, whereas in the Chump they'd be far less on the radar.

As others have said a new manager will want his own team around him...'his men'. The above sales would raise the missing £35m (maybe). Sell a few peripheral players like Edwards/Vokes/Elokobi etc to get a couple of mil in (maybe). Bring some of the kids through (Davis/Forde/Ismail/Gorman...). Invest a smallish amount - say £5m-£10m to buy proven Championship players and prospects from the lower leagues and rebuild from scratch.

You'd still have a team like this:

......................DDV/Hennessey (he's going nowhere now)
Foley........Stearman..........Berra..........Ward
...................Henry.....Davis.......................
Kightly.............Guedioura...............Hammill
..........................SEB

Plus whoever the new guy brings in, and whichever kids make the breakthrough.

That's what I'd describe as a realistic take on things.

 

[Hoganstolemywife]

That wasn't investment though. It was spending the clubs income. The income won't be there next season though. To cover this it will need either investment from Morgan or bank loans or the selling of assets. I can't see Morgan investing, bank loans will reduce the value of the club and so the most likely path will be the selling of assets

Good point. Mobnet's point about passive/active investment counters that though - I think!

There'll certainly be sales, just not as extensive as people suggest.

For example, to address The Weasel's point, I agree that should a bid of £10 million come in for Fletcher/Jarvis, the club would deem it a very fair price and agree to sell.

But, by doing so, they would put themselves in a position where they wouldn't have to accept a £4 million bid for O'Hara, or a £5 million bid for Doyle.

With the 40-50% reduction in wages and one or two big sales (in addition to getting shot of a few minor players), we'll have money to spend on Championship replacements and be able to run at a sustainable loss for a year whilst we try and force our way back up.

 

[Deleted member 4152]

The OP views are based mainly upon the assumption that Morgan changes his whole ethos. Which by and large, this last 12 months has been, lets do things on the cheap and build as many houses as possible.

Your assumption that Morgan knows anything about football and the potentially vital part that players like Fletcher, Doyle and Jarvis could have in the Championship, is purely that, a naive assumption.

Morgan has been naive in the extreme this year. Banking on the promoted clubs being weak and taking his eye off the ball and concetrating on the white elephant that is the new Northbank or should i say, Northbank plus 500 seats that will be blocked by the corner of the Steve Bull stand!

I fully expect Morgan and Moxey to not learn from their catostrophic mistakes of this season and sell our best players. Moxey is interested in two things, his bonus and making a profit. Morgan seems to be completely taken in by Moxey and seems very weak, misguided, indecisive and footballing wise, completely clueless.

We'll see but my own assumption is they'll carry on with their current strategy, do everything on the cheap. Which, i'm afraid will inevitably mean, we sell our best players, appoint a dinosaur along the lines of Megson and sign dross like Eggert Jonsson, Dave Edwards and George Elokobi.

Hope i'm wrong though.

I would love to disagree, but I'm afraid I cannot...

 

[MobNet Wolf]

If we get a £10m bid for either Fletcher or Jarvis, or a money-back bid on Doyle/O'Hara/Johnson/Milijas/Zubar (and possibly others) I think the club will take it. Fletcher and Jarvis will potentially attract a premium right now for playing well in the Prem in a bottom of the table side, whereas in the Chump they'd be far less on the radar.

As others have said a new manager will want his own team around him...'his men'. The above sales would raise the missing £35m (maybe). Sell a few peripheral players like Edwards/Vokes/Elokobi etc to get a couple of mil in (maybe). Bring some of the kids through (Davis/Forde/Ismail/Gorman...). Invest a smallish amount - say £5m-£10m to buy proven Championship players and prospects from the lower leagues and rebuild from scratch.

You'd still have a team like this:

......................DDV/Hennessey (he's going nowhere now)
Foley........Stearman..........Berra..........Ward
...................Henry.....Davis.......................
Kightly.............Guedioura...............Hammill
..........................SEB

Plus whoever the new guy brings in, and whichever kids make the breakthrough.

That's what I'd describe as a realistic take on things.

I think it is an overly pessimistic take on things.

All this 'start-from-scratch' talk makes no sense. It sounds like the sort of conversations we were having when Mick first came in!

There is absolutely no need to start from scratch and play the kids. That would be a diabolical waste of the best chance the club has of getting straight back up.

We aren't Birmingham!

 

[cannockwolves]

The OP views are based mainly upon the assumption that Morgan changes his whole ethos. Which by and large, this last 12 months has been, lets do things on the cheap and build as many houses as possible.

Your assumption that Morgan knows anything about football and the potentially vital part that players like Fletcher, Doyle and Jarvis could have in the Championship, is purely that, a naive assumption.

Morgan has been naive in the extreme this year. Banking on the promoted clubs being weak and taking his eye off the ball and concetrating on the white elephant that is the new Northbank or should i say, Northbank plus 500 seats that will be blocked by the corner of the Steve Bull stand!

I fully expect Morgan and Moxey to not learn from their catostrophic mistakes of this season and sell our best players. Moxey is interested in two things, his bonus and making a profit. Morgan seems to be completely taken in by Moxey and seems very weak, misguided, indecisive and footballing wise, completely clueless.

We'll see but my own assumption is they'll carry on with their current strategy, do everything on the cheap. Which, i'm afraid will inevitably mean, we sell our best players, appoint a dinosaur along the lines of Megson and sign dross like Eggert Jonsson, Dave Edwards and George Elokobi.

Hope i'm wrong though.

I doubt anything I say will change your mind, but a lot of the things your saying are very subjective and do really stand up to much considered analysis.

The most questionable of your statements for me is this - "do things on the cheap and build as many houses as possible".

Now I am sure we would both love a rich Arab to coming and spend £200m on players, but the money spent by the club over the last 5 years is more than many mid table sides.

When people say we do things on the cheap what to they mean? You only have to add up what we have spent and compare it to every other mid table team to see we have out spent them in the main. Morgan has also spent £18m on the ground and pledged to spend money on the training ground - don't forget they spent a million on the pitches.

If you were Morgan would you consider you have tried to be cheap?

I have said this on other threads, but do you know why the houses are being built? If you are a category 2, 3, or 4 academy any category 1 academy can come and 'take' your best kids for a what is in effect 'nominal' fee up. The new rules mean that a top premiership club can go to any other training ground to watch a player (giving 48 hours notice) and effectively buy the player for a fixed fee of £3,000. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite_Player_Performance_Plan

Robbie Keane joined our academy age 15 and made his debut two years later, under the new rules he could have been take for £120k (3 x £40k)

So, I think its fair that Morgan and Jez would want to do everything they can to make sure Wolves are a Category 1 academy, yes?

Moving the school, part funding the university move - and yes building a few houses - appear to me a *&*^^& good way to put the infer-structure in place to get a Category 1 academy.

It also makes me laugh when people call Morgan and Jez naive, I mean Jez has been CEO of a premier league club for years, done a similar at Stoke and being commercial manager at Glasgow Ranges nearly 20 years ago. Has been dealing (successfully) with football agents and run what is in effect a £80m business for years - not to mention the experience of FA and Premier league committees. Come on, Jez understands the business of football more than anyone here could dream about.

Then we come to Morgan, self made multi-millionaire former director of Liverpool football club. As a fan he is going to know as much as you and me, as a business man he is going to know more, and as a former director of one of the biggest clubs in the world he is going to have an idea about the business of football!

Read the book "Why England Lose: And other curious phenomena explained" and you can see the things Jez and Morgan are trying to do. Just read the book, I can absolutely guarantee that they both have and are trying to follow some of the principles proven to work.

 

[Chungster]

Jez understands the business of football more than anyone here could dream about.

Then we come to Morgan, self made multi-millionaire former director of Liverpool football club. As a fan he is going to know as much as you and me, as a business man he is going to know more, and as a former director of one of the biggest clubs in the world he is going to have an idea about the business of football!

Understanding the business of football is one thing. Making shrewd, timely decisions about football is very much another.

 

[Hoganstolemywife]

I doubt anything I say will change your mind, but a lot of the things your saying are very subjective and do really stand up to much considered analysis.

The most questionable of your statements for me is this - "do things on the cheap and build as many houses as possible".

Now I am sure we would both love a rich Arab to coming and spend £200m on players, but the money spent by the club over the last 5 years is more than many mid table sides.

When people say we do things on the cheap what to they mean? You only have to add up what we have spent and compare it to every other mid table team to see we have out spent them in the main. Morgan has also spent £18m on the ground and pledged to spend money on the training ground - don't forget they spent a million on the pitches.

If you were Morgan would you consider you have tried to be cheap?

I have said this on other threads, but do you know why the houses are being built? If you are a category 2, 3, or 4 academy any category 1 academy can come and 'take' your best kids for a what is in effect 'nominal' fee up. The new rules mean that a top premiership club can go to any other training ground to watch a player (giving 48 hours notice) and effectively buy the player for a fixed fee of £3,000. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite_Player_Performance_Plan

Robbie Keane joined our academy age 15 and made his debut two years later, under the new rules he could have been take for £120k (3 x £40k)

So, I think its fair that Morgan and Jez would want to do everything they can to make sure Wolves are a Category 1 academy, yes?

Moving the school, part funding the university move - and yes building a few houses - appear to me a *&*^^& good way to put the infer-structure in place to get a Category 1 academy.

It also makes me laugh when people call Morgan and Jez naive, I mean Jez has been CEO of a premier league club for years, done a similar at Stoke and being commercial manager at Glasgow Ranges nearly 20 years ago. Has been dealing (successfully) with football agents and run what is in effect a £80m business for years - not to mention the experience of FA and Premier league committees. Come on, Jez understands the business of football more than anyone here could dream about.

Then we come to Morgan, self made multi-millionaire former director of Liverpool football club. As a fan he is going to know as much as you and me, as a business man he is going to know more, and as a former director of one of the biggest clubs in the world he is going to have an idea about the business of football!

Read the book "Why England Lose: And other curious phenomena explained" and you can see the things Jez and Morgan are trying to do. Just read the book, I can absolutely guarantee that they both have and are trying to follow some of the principles proven to work.

Excellent post. I wondered why our opinions were so allied until I saw that you too had read that excellent book.

I would recommend it to all - certain 'creative' searches on the internet will bear fruit...

 

[Wolves in Limerick]

Poole, from what we know about the previous search for a manager, when it became clear that the club was not going to be successful in getting a short term manager, they turned there attention to Brian McDermott and Gus Poyet. What are these but up and coming managers. If rumours about an approach to Ole are true, he is in my mind at least another up and coming manager. I really don't know how you can deny the blindingly obvious.

 

[JR's Boots]

Poole, from what we know about the previous search for a manager, when it became clear that the club was not going to be successful in getting a short term manager, they turned there attention to Brian McDermott and Gus Poyet. What are these but up and coming managers. If rumours about an approach to Ole are true, he is in my mind at least another up and coming manager. I really don't know how you can deny the blindingly obvious.

...and then gave the job to the worst candidate in English football; one of, if not the poorest, footballing decision made by a PL club in its history.

 

[Big Saft Kid]

Your analysis is flawed.

The club will only accept an offer that they deem sufficient. Such offers will have to be significant.

You then make out like the players have to 'opt-in' to the Championship. Complete nonsense. They have to very publically 'opt-out' if they don't want to stay, and I cannot see that happening. Any personal preference, remains as such.

Sorry, but I don't see where the 'flaw' is. I'm just talking about human nature, whether it's Morgan's or an individual player's: you try and get as much as you can for your assets. We'll see

 

[The Weasel]

I think it is an overly pessimistic take on things.

All this 'start-from-scratch' talk makes no sense. It sounds like the sort of conversations we were having when Mick first came in!

There is absolutely no need to start from scratch and play the kids. That would be a diabolical waste of the best chance the club has of getting straight back up.

We aren't Birmingham!

Ok, forget the phrase 'rebuild from scratch'. You can see clearly from the side I posted that the nucleus are players in or around our first team squad in the Prem - there's only one 'kid' included and that's Davis.

I honestly think we'll assess the squad and any offers coming in and make sensible financial decisions which allow a new manager a budget to work with. There'll still be the bulk of a first team squad - something that Mick definitely didn't inherit - but a new man will want a few new faces, and we'll fund those through sales.

 

[cannockwolves]

Just another thought, when people talk about the new North Bank as a white elephant I would refer them to the detail of the new UEFA fair play rules.

On page 6 of this weeks Marketing Week magazine there is an analysis of the impact of these rules from the 2012/13 season. Championship clubs can only spend what they earn and League 1 and 2 sides can only spend 55% of their income on wages.

Building the North Bank (whether we fill it on match day or not) increases the commercial revenue of the club and enabling us to be able to spend more on wages compared to our championship rivals.

 

[FLEET WOLF]

Indeed.

Our wage bill is around £45 million now, conservative estimates would say it'll be down to £27 million following relegation (that's a sub 50% pay cut for everybody).

Certain players will almost certainly leave: Milijas for instance.

We'll have to sell at least one of our better players to make the deficit manageable and to allow for incoming transfers, of which I'm sure we'll make a few.

But, as MobNet says, next season will be one in which we take a big financial hit as a club in order to gamble upon immediate promotion. We won't be insolvent if it doesn't work out - or anything approaching that - but we would need to make concessions in the summer of 2013 if we failed to win promotion.

There's absolutely no reason to cut costs to such an extent that we make a profit next season; it would be illogical and would actively hinder any promotion push.

Spot on that.

 

[JR's Boots]

Just another thought, when people talk about the new North Bank as a white elephant I would refer them to the detail of the new UEFA fair play rules.

On page 6 of this weeks Marketing Week magazine there is an analysis of the impact of these rules from the 2012/13 season. Championship clubs can only spend what they earn and League 1 and 2 sides can only spend 55% of their income on wages.

Building the North Bank (whether we fill it on match day or not) increases the commercial revenue of the club and enabling us to be able to spend more on wages compared to our championship rivals.

I'd heard West Ham had appealed and the fair play rules won't apply to the championship until 2013/14 but will apply to Leagues 1 & 2.

 

[Sedgley Gold N Black]

Did anyone else click on this thread hoping to see a direct quote off Morgan, Moxey or even the players themselves?

You got my hopes up!

 

[Valewolf]

I hope, that whoever the manager is going to be, he's already watching our games to assess the existing squad.

Apparently Megson is doing so......................agh!

If a Perspective manager has been watching any of our last 10 games I would imagine that would of convinced him the Wolves job was not for him!