Bruno Lage

[Flump]

You can defy the data for a season but you have to be very lucky, and you can't do it sustainably over a few seasons. Need to create way more chances.

Well, it depends what data.

Even something as generally useful and easily applied as xG doesn't give the full picture. A team that sits back and tries to keep a clean sheet as soon as they go 1 up (something which has fans frothing at the mouth at the mere suggestion of...) will be able to "outperform" their xG a lot more easily than one which continues to try to keep scoring.

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

Well, it depends what data.

Even something as generally useful and easily applied as xG doesn't give the full picture. A team that sits back and tries to keep a clean sheet as soon as they go 1 up (something which has fans frothing at the mouth at the mere suggestion of...) will be able to "outperform" their xG a lot more easily than one which continues to try to keep scoring.

Nah that isn't true, outperforming xg is only possible with elite attackers. We are actually under performing our slightly Sa is reason we are dramatically outperforming our xga

 

[Flump]

Nah that isn't true, outperforming xg is only possible with elite attackers. We are actually under performing our slightly Sa is reason we are dramatically outperforming our xga

I'm not talking about outperforming xG in terms of number of goals scored.

I'm talking about getting more points than xG suggest you should have. I.e. if we score on average at the point in a match at which we get to 0.5 xG, then Wolves will (relatively speaking) stop creating much more, see out the clean sheet, and get 3 points.

Someone like Leeds say, would keep piling up xG in an attempt to score the 2nd, 3rd (4th and 5th...) goals that they'd need to be sure of the win.

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

I'm not talking about outperforming xG in terms of number of goals scored.

I'm talking about getting more points than xG suggest you should have. I.e. if we score on average at the point in a match at which we get to 0.5 xG, then Wolves will (relatively speaking) stop creating much more, see out the clean sheet, and get 3 points.

Someone like Leeds say, would keep piling up xG in an attempt to score the 2nd, 3rd (4th and 5th...) goals that they'd need to be sure of the win.

We only see out the clean sheet because of our keeper, our chances conceded is good but not great. If Sa continues to play at an obscene level then that is ok but don't want to rely on that.

The top teams also don't ever stop creating, especially towards the end of the game when teams come at them. If we want to be top 6 consistently this style won't do it.

 

[Wolfy McWolf-Face]

We only see out the clean sheet because of our keeper, our chances conceded is good but not great. If Sa continues to play at an obscene level then that is ok but don't want to rely on that.

The top teams also don't ever stop creating, especially towards the end of the game when teams come at them. If we want to be top 6 consistently this style won't do it.

Agreed re your last sentence. I think Bruno would agree also. His style is likely more akin to what he did in Portugal however it simply can't happen overnight. Firstly, this is the Premier League. Far tougher to apply the type of attacking mentality he did previously.

Also, we simply don't have the players. Nuno wanted us to dominate the ball more as opposed to counter attack and unfortunately he struggled to bring this about successfuly with the squad he had assembled to counter attack. Bruno has been somewhat more successful in that respect but its been inconsistent at times likely due to the fact that the team wasn't assembled to play that way. Over time with more Bruno additions I would like to see us attack more consistently and with more confidence as a team who are owning the style, not one who is trying hard to adapt to it.

Its not always been pretty this year but we are up there despite being in a transitional period of style and squad.

Ultimately, Fosun need to give Bruno the players he wants in the summer. Not bothered whether they cost 30m or 3m as long as they are players he identifies to play his way. Then, and only then, can we truly judge him.

 

[Arky_R]

imagine if Bruno had a pre injury Raul and Jota.
Back him with some proper players

 

[groundhogwolf]

Biggest load of *******s I've ever read

Is there someone on a Norwich post game thread saying how Lage didn't have a clue how to open up their tin pot defence despite having two attempts at it? Or someone of a more neutral bias who's said Lage's inability to get his side back into games when they've gone behind has proven extremely costly? After all, this Wolves side was the best at coming back two years ago, the BEST (and 5th last season), now it's the worst

Ignore facts though, they hurt your argument eh?

Predictable lol.

 

[JR WAS KING]

What's *******s about it? It's facts pal

We've played Norwich twice and barely troubled their keeper and we're the worst side in the league when it comes to recovering from losing positions

Which of those facts do you disagree with?

You've used two matches to try and justify a very flimsy argument. What does it prove?

Nuno's promotion team played rock bottom Sunderland twice, didn't score a goal and managed one point.

We then managed no goals and no points against Huddersfield, one of the worst teams ever to play in the Premier league.

Then we managed one point against a truly woeful Albion.

We've got more points after 29 games than we have ever had in the Premier league. Those 46 points have actually been achieved from 26 games after a dreadful start to the season.

We've got the fourth best away record in the Premier league, bettered only by Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea, three of the best teams in Europe.

Which of those facts do you disagree with?

 

[old wittonian]

You've used two matches to try and justify a very flimsy argument. What does it prove?

Nuno's promotion team played rock bottom Sunderland twice, didn't score a goal and managed one point.

We then managed no goals and no points against Huddersfield, one of the worst teams ever to play in the Premier league.

Then we managed one point against a truly woeful Albion.

We've got more points after 29 games than we have ever had in the Premier league. Those 46 points have actually been achieved from 26 games after a dreadful start to the season.

We've got the fourth best away record in the Premier league, bettered only by Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea, three of the best teams in Europe.

Which of those facts do you disagree with?

He's never wrong. He's just more right than you are

 

[Burton Wolf]

Counter attacking isn't a Nuno tactic, Liverpool have a devastating one.

How exactly has that got anything to do with us?

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

How exactly has that got anything to do with us?

Because we should want a great counterattack to score more goals? Basic stuff

 

[Manic88]

You've used two matches to try and justify a very flimsy argument. What does it prove?

Nuno's promotion team played rock bottom Sunderland twice, didn't score a goal and managed one point.

We then managed no goals and no points against Huddersfield, one of the worst teams ever to play in the Premier league.

Then we managed one point against a truly woeful Albion.

We've got more points after 29 games than we have ever had in the Premier league. Those 46 points have actually been achieved from 26 games after a dreadful start to the season.

We've got the fourth best away record in the Premier league, bettered only by Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea, three of the best teams in Europe.

Which of those facts do you disagree with?

yeah but yeah but yeah but
Nuno would have done just as well this season, he just chose to make us be a car crash last season for undetermined reasons

 

[Burton Wolf]

Because we should want a great counterattack to score more goals? Basic stuff

I think we are doing fine as we are. Basic stuff?

 

[SteveBullsKnee]

I think we are doing fine as we are. Basic stuff?

Exactly this. I’m baffled anyone is picking holes in him. Walked into a squad that wasn’t his, off the back of a poor season. It could easily have gone very wrong. Think he’s doing a great job, far exceeding most peoples expectations.

 

[lostwolf]

Probably best to stay off when Iv been drinking. Up the Wolves

Some of us need the drunk thread back. There's been times this season, after a few in Brum then a few more on the train to Sheffield, when I've been relieved the next morning to see I only thought about unreasonably slagging off Trincao and had actually run out of charge by Derby!

Back on topic: Lage? Nope, mine's an HPA ta.

 

[SteveBullsKnee]

Some of us need the drunk thread back. There's been times this season, after a few in Brum then a few more on the train to Sheffield, when I've been relieved the next morning to see I only thought about unreasonably slagging off Trincao and had actually run out of charge by Derby!

Back on topic: Lage? Nope, mine's an HPA ta.

Can’t think of the away game but I got smashed and next day relentlessly caned Andy Keogh to a mate, only to be told he hasn’t played!

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

I think we are doing fine as we are. Basic stuff?

We have 1 counterattacking goal all season, it is an area we need to improve.

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

Exactly this. I’m baffled anyone is picking holes in him. Walked into a squad that wasn’t his, off the back of a poor season. It could easily have gone very wrong. Think he’s doing a great job, far exceeding most peoples expectations.

So there is absolutely no room to improve whatsoever? What is the point of a forum then, nothing to discuss whatsoever.

 

[Contrarian]

We only see out the clean sheet because of our keeper, our chances conceded is good but not great. If Sa continues to play at an obscene level then that is ok but don't want to rely on that.

The top teams also don't ever stop creating, especially towards the end of the game when teams come at them. If we want to be top 6 consistently this style won't do it.

No non-hugeley bankrolled team has made top 6 consistently for over 20 years now and it shows no sign of changing. Well, not related to tactical approach anyway. The key is owners who will pump gazillions in and expect little back. Leicester even won it, but can't make top 6 consistently.

The state of the game at the moment, seems to invite dodgy ownership as the only way to compete at that top end. Those top teams keep creating because they can spend 100s of millions on bench warmers to try out if the first 11 of 100s of millions hasn't wrapped it up. It's not some secret sauce, it's just the money to buy up the best players.

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

No non-hugeley bankrolled team has made top 6 consistently for over 20 years now and it shows no sign of changing. Well, not related to tactical approach anyway. The key is owners who will pump gazillions in and expect little back. Leicester even won it, but can't make top 6 consistently.

The state of the game at the moment, seems to invite dodgy ownership as the only way to compete at that top end. Those top teams keep creating because they can spend 100s of millions on bench warmers to try out if the first 11 of 100s of millions hasn't wrapped it up. It's not some secret sauce, it's just the money to buy up the best players.

There are stacks of teams who create chances and still have solid defenses. I am not saying we need 3 or 4 every game, but we can strike a better balance.

 

[Contrarian]

There are stacks of teams who create chances and still have solid defenses. I am not saying we need 3 or 4 every game, but we can strike a better balance.

Above us in the table?

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

Above us in the table?

Ah you're one of them who believes our current attacking numbers are sustainable? Didn't realise I was wasting my time sorry

 

[LetTheBullLoose]

Where’s your proof they’re not sustainable?

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

Where’s your proof they’re not sustainable?

Because no team has ever finished top 6 with as few goals as we are on course to score. We've conceded about 10 less goals than we should have based on the chances opposition have created. Next year if those numbers are closer to parity and our goals don't improve we'll be mid table

 

[LetTheBullLoose]

We’re not a top 6 team so not sure why you’ve bought that into it. And even if we go with that argument, just because it’s never happened doesn’t mean it won’t ever happen.
Not denying we could do with scoring more.

 

[Contrarian]

Ah you're one of them who believes our current attacking numbers are sustainable? Didn't realise I was wasting my time sorry

Not necessarily. Not sure what "sustainability" means in this context? It's not like a resource that will get used up? We are gradually opening up more and creating more in recent months. I do believe our attack is our weak point - I've gone on and on about it since match #1 when most were complaining about our awful defence!

Defence is a perfectly valid part of the game. While teams at the top generally score most goals, having a strong defence at least guarantees you a decent position. It's been pointed out many times - several teams at the bottom have scored more than us. But fat lot of good it's good them when they leak goals like a sieve. And 99+% of fans of the bottom 6 would willingly trade with us, if watching the dour non-creative football we provide had them in 7th place, too.

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

Not necessarily. Not sure what "sustainability" means in this context? It's not like a resource that will get used up? We are gradually opening up more and creating more in recent months. I do believe our attack is our weak point - I've gone on and on about it since match #1 when most were complaining about our awful defence!

Defence is a perfectly valid part of the game. While teams at the top generally score most goals, having a strong defence at least guarantees you a decent position. It's been pointed out many times - several teams at the bottom have scored more than us. But fat lot of good it's good them when they leak goals like a sieve. And 99+% of fans of the bottom 6 would willingly trade with us, if watching the dour non-creative football we provide had them in 7th place, too.

We concede chances at a rate of a defense lower than ours. Can Sa keep playing at this level? Our xg is very low last month or so, not sure what numbers you are looking at.

Sustainable meaning I don't believe we will continue not conceding goals and winning 1-0 over long term.

 

[Contrarian]

We’re not a top 6 team so not sure why you’ve bought that into it. And even if we go with that argument, just because it’s never happened doesn’t mean it won’t ever happen.
Not denying we could do with scoring more.

Goal scorers cost the most. As well as the "English" premium, there's a "strikers" premium, always has been. We broke our record fee on a player who is rumoured to possibly be a goal scorer at some vague point in the future! We'd never do that for a keeper or defender.

The only way we will break top 6 is by spending way more than we are.

 

[Contrarian]

We concede chances at a rate of a defense lower than ours. Can Sa keep playing at this level? Our xg is very low last month or so, not sure what numbers you are looking at.

Sustainable meaning I don't believe we will continue not conceding goals and winning 1-0 over long term.

We just had a run of 3 defeats, so that was a certain amount of rebalancing of our system? As for Sa, isn't it just the same at the other end? If a striker starts scoring loads, like Vardy in Leicesters title winning season, does it matter that it's not going to work in the long run if it brings success? Fairly sure most players at this level have runs of brilliant form, followed by not so good spells.

Theres' a reason we 7th out of 20 and it's because we are better than 13 teams in this league. Totally agree that Sa is key to having us in that position. But if we hadn't got him and were 18th, would you then say "ah, but if we had that Sa in goal, we'd be 7th"?

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

We just had a run of 3 defeats, so that was a certain amount of rebalancing of our system? As for Sa, isn't it just the same at the other end? If a striker starts scoring loads, like Vardy in Leicesters title winning season, does it matter that it's not going to work in the long run if it brings success? Fairly sure most players at this level have runs of brilliant form, followed by not so good spells.

Theres' a reason we 7th out of 20 and it's because we are better than 13 teams in this league. Totally agree that Sa is key to having us in that position. But if we hadn't got him and were 18th, would you then say "ah, but if we had that Sa in goal, we'd be 7th"?

We wouldn't be 18th without him we'd be around midtable with an average keeper which is exactly what I'd say we'd be. Leicester season literally was the most unique lightning in a bottle season ever. Hence what happened to them the year after and that they've never remotely challenged again. So in a word yes it literally demonstrates my point nicely

I don't think we are massively better than the few teams below us.

 

[LetTheBullLoose]

I also don’t get why so many are saying ‘If it wasn’t for Sa we wouldn’t be where we are.’ Sa is a player in the team the same as any other. And he’s doing his job very well. It’s as if the goalkeeper should never be troubled. If he is we’re ‘not very good’. Comments like this are never made about any other player in any other position.

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

I also don’t get why so many are saying ‘If it wasn’t for Sa we wouldn’t be where we are.’ Sa is a player in the team the same as any other. And he’s doing his job very well. It’s as if the goalkeeper should never be troubled. If he is we’re ‘not very good’. Comments like this are never made about any other player in any other position.

Because GK performances season to season is more variable than other position as a general rule. GKs don't keep on average 10 more goals out than the chances the team concedes.

 

[wwbug]

Sa is doing incredibly well but even he admits thats due to a great team spirit and everyone covering one another's backs.

He has made the odd mistake , redeemed by another player covering.

 

[Golden_Wolf]

Because GK performances season to season is more variable than other position as a general rule. GKs don't keep on average 10 more goals out than the chances the team concedes.

Big example of this was Emi Martinez no? His 1st full season at villa he was ridiculous. Seems to have gone back to "normal" now.

 

[theweave]

There are stacks of teams who create chances and still have solid defenses. I am not saying we need 3 or 4 every game, but we can strike a better balance.

Stacks? There are 3, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea.

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

Stacks? There are 3, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea.

There are 3 or 4 other teams who do that more than us. Aren't are aims consistent top 6/7 though - that is the standard I set with our ticket price rises?

 

[Black Country Wanderer]

There are 3 or 4 other teams who do that more than us. Aren't are aims consistent top 6/7 though - that is the standard I set with our ticket price rises?

Well last i looked we ranked about 15th overall for ST prices, although i have seen one site that ranked us 10th, but mid to lower table whichever
As for lack of goals,yes we all know its a problem,but its not a new one is it?
Our first season back,by all accounts our most attack minded season in the Prem we only scored 47 with a goal difference of 1
Second season prime Raul,Jota and Traore actually at near his best we scored 4 more
Last season 36, this season 29 with 9 to go,not exactly prolific is it?
Of course we need more goals,and i agree keeping clean sheets is not sustainable long term,but with threequarters of the season gone we have sustained it pretty well so far
We are on course to have our best points tally ,and best goal difference in our Prem history,although ofc it could go horribly wrong still lol

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

Well last i looked we ranked about 15th overall for ST prices, although i have seen one site that ranked us 10th, but mid to lower table whichever
As for lack of goals,yes we all know its a problem,but its not a new one is it?
Our first season back,by all accounts our most attack minded season in the Prem we only scored 47 with a goal difference of 1
Second season prime Raul,Jota and Traore actually at near his best we scored 4 more
Last season 36, this season 29 with 9 to go,not exactly prolific is it?
Of course we need more goals,and i agree keeping clean sheets is not sustainable long term,but with threequarters of the season gone we have sustained it pretty well so far
We are on course to have our best points tally ,and best goal difference in our Prem history,although ofc it could go horribly wrong still lol

We are doing very well - I am projecting the price rise based on the ticket price rise this year but could be wrong on it.

 

[theweave]

There are 3 or 4 other teams who do that more than us. Aren't are aims consistent top 6/7 though - that is the standard I set with our ticket price rises?

Who are those teams?

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

Who are those teams?

West Ham, Spurs, United. Palace actually have this year as well, just lacked finishing and have one of the worst keepers in the league (by far).