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The 20 goal a season striker myth

Black Country Wanderer

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I thought id take a look at this over the last 5 seasons to see if it holds water
Every man and his dog has been calling for us to sign a proven 20 goal a season striker,as every promotion team has to have one apparently,well do they?
If you have one does it guarantee promotion? Lets take a look

Teams promoted in last 5 seasons without one
2016/17 Huddersfield top scorer 12 goals
2015/16 Middlesborough top scorer 8 goals
2014/15 Norwich top scorer 18 goals
2013/14 QPR top scorer 17 goals
2012/13 Cardiff top scorer 8 goals
2012/13 Hull top scorer 9 goals

Teams not promoted in last 5 seasons with one
2016/17 Leeds Bristol City
2015/16 Fulham
2014/15 Ipswich Blackburn (2)
2013/14 Leeds Watford Blackburn Bournemouth
2012/13 Blackburn Watford Burnley Leicester

Conclusions
Having one is handy but guarantees nothing
Not having one makes it difficult but far from impossible
The team gets you promoted not one player
 

SingYourHeartsOut

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Good points, however the alternative view is that we are really hoping for top 2, we know far too much about the play-off lottery. Of the promoted teams 3 came up via the play-offs so really it is 3 out of the last 12 automatically promoted teams who made it without a 20 goal striker.
 

WalsallWolf

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It is much of a focal point as much as goals we need though imo. Yes people will say we have a roaming 3 etc. But essentially the middle forward will at times drop that deep he needs to be not only intelligent and clever, but also strong and able to mix it. I am not sure the current crop have it in their lockers. Perhaps Bonatini and Jota although I have not saw enough.

We need options and having not brought anyone in I am left wondering whether ditching Dicko/Bod was a smart move. It has obviously dented our depth but both would have provided different options. Only 5 games in we have needed that in two games so far (Cardiff, Brentford) and both times are substitute options changes were very "samey". That is my issue.
 

groundhogwolf

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I thought id take a look at this over the last 5 seasons to see if it holds water
Every man and his dog has been calling for us to sign a proven 20 goal a season striker,as every promotion team has to have one apparently,well do they?
If you have one does it guarantee promotion? Lets take a look

Teams promoted in last 5 seasons without one
2016/17 Huddersfield top scorer 12 goals
2015/16 Middlesborough top scorer 8 goals
2014/15 Norwich top scorer 18 goals
2013/14 QPR top scorer 17 goals
2012/13 Cardiff top scorer 8 goals
2012/13 Hull top scorer 9 goals

Teams not promoted in last 5 seasons with one
2016/17 Leeds Bristol City
2015/16 Fulham
2014/15 Ipswich Blackburn (2)
2013/14 Leeds Watford Blackburn Bournemouth
2012/13 Blackburn Watford Burnley Leicester

Conclusions
Having one is handy but guarantees nothing
Not having one makes it difficult but far from impossible
The team gets you promoted not one player

Some aren't going to be happy with this, look forward to the counter argument, this could be a long thread.
 
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GNLwolf

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It's been pointed out above, but I think the converse argument is more persuasive:

2015-16

Burnley - Gray - 23 (plus 2 for Brentford at start of season)
Hull - Hernandez - 20

2014-15
Watford - Deeney - 21
Bournemouth - Wilson - 20

2013-14
Leicester - Nugent - 20
Burnley - Ings - 22

2012-13 (Bit of a freak year - only year where neither of the automatic sides had a 20 goal striker)
Crystal Palace - Murray - 30

So no it isn't necessarily the be all and end all, but it certainly helps if you want top 2.
 

Black Country Wanderer

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Good points, however the alternative view is that we are really hoping for top 2, we know far too much about the play-off lottery. Of the promoted teams 3 came up via the play-offs so really it is 3 out of the last 12 automatically promoted teams who made it without a 20 goal striker.
Totally agree
I'm not trying to make a case either way,just saying its possible to get promoted without one,and equally possible to not get promoted with one,or even 2 in some cases
Normally if your top 2 you will have guys that have scored a fair few goals,that's a given
We would all like one for sure,i'm just putting out the fact that its not the necessity some allure to :)
 

SingYourHeartsOut

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Totally agree
I'm not trying to make a case either way,just saying its possible to get promoted without one,and equally possible to not get promoted with one,or even 2 in some cases
Normally if your top 2 you will have guys that have scored a fair few goals,that's a given
We would all like one for sure,i'm just putting out the fact that its not the necessity some allure to :)

Indeed. Also of course nobody can say we won't have one. Bonatini might well get 20, he might get 19 with 15 each from Cav. Jota and Costa - I think that might get us over the line!
 

Munich_Wolf

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I'm sure the disappointment amongst many of the fans wouldn't have been half as strong if we'd have kept Dicko and to a lesser extent Bod.

I think the club assumed they'd land a striker and gambled a bit too high this time.

I'm still delighted with the window and the way the club is being run but it would be wrong to assume selling all our strikers without getting one in was planned all along.
 

StefanWolves

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It's been pointed out above, but I think the converse argument is more persuasive:

2015-16

Burnley - Gray - 23 (plus 2 for Brentford at start of season)
Hull - Hernandez - 20

2014-15
Watford - Deeney - 21
Bournemouth - Wilson - 20

2013-14
Leicester - Nugent - 20
Burnley - Ings - 22

2012-13 (Bit of a freak year - only year where neither of the automatic sides had a 20 goal striker)
Crystal Palace - Murray - 30

So no it isn't necessarily the be all and end all, but it certainly helps if you want top 2.
Check mate
 

Sedgley Gold N Black

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I posted this a while back, which is along similar lines to your argument, I drew the conclusion that having a good defence is more important that scoring a lot of goals.
I was going to post this as a response but possibly worthy of its own thread.

I know many feel we lack goals and/or that 20 goal a year striker and see that as an essential for promotion however...

Last season the two best defences went up automatically.

Fulham and Norwich were joint top scorers with Newcastle and finished 6th and 8th.

Along with the two mentioned above, 10th placed Brentford scored more goals than 2nd placed Brighton.

Huddersfield went up scoring just 56 goals, the second lowest scorers in the top 12 with even Forest scoring more.

The season before all three teams with the best defence went up, where as 2 of the 3 joint top scorers didn't, one finished 9th with again one of the sides going up scoring less goals than a team in the bottom 5.

Season before that the top 4 contained 4 of the best 5 defences.

I don't think this will have passed Nuno by and is probably what's behind his approach this summer.
 

Black Country Wanderer

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You stats inadvertently prove that you actually do need a 20 goal s season striker to have a better chance of going up.

Out of the 5 seasons you've listed only one team in each season (2 in 2012/12) which means in the last 4 seasons 2 clubs in each season have been promoted.
You miss my point totally
I'm not arguing you don't have a better chance with one,i'm just saying it isn't a necessity,the facts prove you can do it without one, that's all
Also the list of some 17 teams or so that had one, or even 2 ,and failed in that period ,bolsters my conclusion that its a team that gets you there not just a striker, don't you think?
 
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GNLwolf

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You miss my point totally
I'm not arguing you don't have a better chance with one,i'm just saying it isn't a necessity,the facts prove you can do it without one, that's all
Also the list of some 17 teams or so that had one, or even 2 ,and failed in that period ,bolsters my conclusion that its a team that gets you there not just a striker, don't you think?

Obviously it isn't "just" a striker, just like it isn't "just" a defence, or "just" a good manager - but the stats don't lie. You have a greater chance of finishing in the top two with a 20 goal striker as part of your team than you do without one.

Clearly there are more ingredients for a promotion team than just a 20 goal player - my frustration stems from the fact that we have every other single ingredient, knew what was lacking, and for a reason I struggle to fathom, decided not to add it anyway.
 

WolfLing

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Who is to say that Bonatini is not our 20 goal striker. He has scored two already and he is not even match fit.

I don't understand how people have all of a sudden decided that he's rubbish!

Like you say, not even fully up to speed and still made a very good start to the season.

Could easily get to 20 goals this season.
 

goldeneyed

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Of course you want goals shared around a team and it doesn't have to be all focused on one goalscorer - that's obvious. But it is equally obvious that having a couple of natural scorers as strikers is a huge benefit and can make the difference between success and failure in a very tough division. Its early days but we have already missed a hell of a lot of chances up front. If that continues it doesn't really matter how good your defence or midfield is. Frustration grows and you can't win the league with a series of 0-0 s even supposing the defence doen't leak at least one goal.

The club and Nuno know we need a striker (or two) whatever Jeff Shi's recent sugar coating effort. With injuries to Bonatini the attack will lack a focus and that is not helpful to say the very least. Yes you can cobble something together without him but hardly ideal. Bright just does not score goals right now and of course is still desperately raw. So is Donavan Wilson. Zyro may be the man to step up but he is clearly not fit yet and will need time to regain confidence after serious injury. He would have to learn the role in any case as he is by trade a winger.

Dressing things up as "we need a 20 goal a season striker" is not the point. We simply need a selection of strikers to choose from who have at least some record of putting the ball in the net as well as helping to knit play together etc. The club failed to bring in even one new striker which is incredible. End of story,

Nuno will just have to make the best of it over the next four months. In January hopefully it won't be too late to make up on any lost ground that may have been caused by our lack of striker options and finally actually sign a striker or two to help. I couldn't care less if they score 20,17,12 or whatever goals but they must score some and they must be able to act as a pivot for other forward players to display their best qualities. I don't care what the excuses are the club have missed a trick and we just have to hope that other clubs, many who have strengthened up front in particular, don't get too far away from us by Christmas. There is much to be optimistic about and signing or not signing a supposed 20 goal a season striker is not really the point. The point is Bonatini alone cannot possibly shoulder this key role by himself over a whole season. And in fact he needs time to get used to the league in any case. What we can be sure is that he will get roughed by some of the heavy mob defenders in this league - whether that eventually results in any serious injuries noone knows, but clearly there is no obvious deputy and that is simply plain stupid.
 

groundhogwolf

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Don't you just hate international weekends.
Just had a look at Goal Difference, see below.

Didn't bother with team names who cares. Between 2011 and 2016 apart from twice only top 8 ended with double figure, and that was the season we missed out on goal differerence.

2015-16
Top 6 37,32,30,34,23,21 rest were single figure or negative.

2014-15
Top 8 53,41,40,31,19,18,14,29 rest were single figure or negative we had the 14.

2013-14
Top 7. 40,36,32,16,13,15,14 rest were single figure or negative.

3012-13
Top 6. 27,9,27,26,11,23 rest were single figure or negative.

2011-12
Top 6. 28,39,33,27,20,13 rest were single figure or negative apart from one.

I have to admit I coach football and love a clean sheet, so in my world Nuno is a God.

Just looked back to 2002 and the average is only 8 teams or less with GD in double figures.
 
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kennyB

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Perhaps someone could list the teams with a 20 goal striker who have been relegated recently. If already done I apologise for missing it.
 
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Essex Wolf

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I don't understand how people have all of a sudden decided that he's rubbish!

Like you say, not even fully up to speed and still made a very good start to the season.

Could easily get to 20 goals this season.
Why on earth are people saying he's rubbish anyway after just 5 games? Makes no sense. Not only is he new to England and needs to settle on that front alone but he is playing with new team mates and in league he had no idea about. I'd say 2 goals in 5 is a damn good strike rate all things considered and when fully fit and more adept at the championship level may well get even better.
 

Wolfheart

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It's not a myth.

You can get promoted without a 20 goal a season striker but the fact is that it's easier to go up with one.

We need to stop papering over the cracks.

We would've had a better chance of promotion with a top striker.

Now we're having to rely our creative midfielders to find the net more often than expected.

Both seasons Wolves got promoted we had 40 goals between our front men. Now we need the likes of Jota, Cav, Bonatini to score 10-15 each. Possible. Yes.

But it would've been better if we had them creating them and chipping in then doing it all themselves.
 
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Essex Wolf

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It's not a myth.

You can get promoted without a 20 goal a season striker but the fact is that it's easier to go up with one.

We need to stop papering over the cracks.

We would've had a better chance of promotion with a top striker.

Now we're having to rely our creative midfielders to find the net more often than expected.

Both seasons Wolves got promoted we had 40 goals between our front men. Now we need the likes of Jota, Cav, Bonatini to score 10-15 each. Possible. Yes.

But it would've been better if we had them creating them and chipping in then doing it all themselves.
Come the next window Wolfheart and depending on Wolves league position will determine IMV how people will react when they look back at the window just closed. Placed in a good position it could be argued a striker wasn't needed whereas if the opposite exists dare say there will me much moaning about what was needed but missed?

All we can now do is hope that the squad does what's needed but I'm in full agreement with you. A striker would have added competition, cover and options all of which Wolves don't have. Hope Bonatini stays injury and suspension free and if not that those limited options if called upon can do what's required.
 

Black Country Wanderer

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It's not a myth.

You can get promoted without a 20 goal a season striker but the fact is that it's easier to go up with one.

We need to stop papering over the cracks.

We would've had a better chance of promotion with a top striker.

Now we're having to rely our creative midfielders to find the net more often than expected.

Both seasons Wolves got promoted we had 40 goals between our front men. Now we need the likes of Jota, Cav, Bonatini to score 10-15 each. Possible. Yes.

But it would've been better if we had them creating them and chipping in then doing it all themselves.

Not trying to paper over anything,it was a mistake not to bring a striker in for sure,we pretty much all agree on that
All i'm doing is pointing out that we don't HAVE to have a 20 goal striker,and even if we bought one it guarantees nothing
Indeed as some have suggested we may already have one,plus Costa ,Cav and Jota ,but i do agree we should have bought at least another one in ,whether or not he could score 20 plus is irrelevant ,as long as he could score double figures it could be good enough
 
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turner845

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Who is to say that Bonatini is not our 20 goal striker. He has scored two already and he is not even match fit.
This time last season Bodvarsson had also scored 2 goals and everyone thought that be was going to hit 20+ goals. He then only scored one more all season.
 

Skrilla

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I think Bonatini can score 15-20, if he keeps fit. The problem is, what happens when he picks up an injury? We needed someone the ball would stick to up front, so even though Jota and Cavaleiro can play there it would leave us very light in attack.
 

North West Wanderer

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I think it shows only one thing, that you need goals to go up.

We have that.
I'd have liked one more, but so be it.
 

Ian C

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I still think Zyro can fill the striker role, plus there's also Wilson and Cavaliero. I'd rather any of these get a game in front of a Dicko or Bod.

I guess we'll have to suck it and see until January.
 

BN1Wolves

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I can see Jota Cav and Bona getting at 6-10 between them over the next six games easily .
 

The Professional

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All good posts and points made so far. I'm feeling a bit better now about our chances of being able to stay around the top 6 to 8 places by January, without the fabled '20 goal striker' that we didn't get. I will hold my hand up and admit I was absolutely gutted that we didn't bring another good striker in. I would have been happy even with Hugill or Rhodes as competition for Leo up front.
That's all over now, and although it's going to be difficult, I think we will be able to win our fair share of games with this squad (injuries permitting.) I think Donovan Wilson will have a larger role to play now, at least until January.
 
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Essex Wolf

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Apologies if mentioned before but just read that Wolves apparently put in a late bid to take Chris Martin from Derby. Decent enough championship striker with a strike rate of just under 1 in 3 but not sure he would have been suitable for the way Wolves play? However if they did put in a bid then along with the apparent bids for Okaka, Remy and almost done deal of Locadia it really does indicate that a forward was wanted irrespective of what is now being said.

To help clarify things I would love to know what Nuno has to say on it all. Is he happy with the squad he has or would he have felt better with another striker? I know what Jeff has said and deep down I hope he is spot on but he isn't the team coach. Nuno doesn't say much and I actually like it this way so accept he may say nothing on the ssue but this is one situation it would be very interesting to have his views on.

The very fact Wolves were apparently in for so many strikers says to me Nuno wanted one.
 

Black Country Wanderer

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Apologies if mentioned before but just read that Wolves apparently put in a late bid to take Chris Martin from Derby. Decent enough championship striker with a strike rate of just under 1 in 3 but not sure he would have been suitable for the way Wolves play? However if they did put in a bid then along with the apparent bids for Okaka, Remy and almost done deal of Locadia it really does indicate that a forward was wanted irrespective of what is now being said.

To help clarify things I would love to know what Nuno has to say on it all. Is he happy with the squad he has or would he have felt better with another striker? I know what Jeff has said and deep down I hope he is spot on but he isn't the team coach. Nuno doesn't say much and I actually like it this way so accept he may say nothing on the ssue but this is one situation it would be very interesting to have his views on.

The very fact Wolves were apparently in for so many strikers says to me Nuno wanted one.
I'm sure Nuno wanted one at least,i'm equally sure the club wanted at least one despite what JS says,the fact we tried for so many tells you that
We tried and failed,we weren't alone in that,it happens,but what irks most is the fact we had so much time to do it,and left it so late to fail
 

SingYourHeartsOut

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Apologies if mentioned before but just read that Wolves apparently put in a late bid to take Chris Martin from Derby. Decent enough championship striker with a strike rate of just under 1 in 3 but not sure he would have been suitable for the way Wolves play? However if they did put in a bid then along with the apparent bids for Okaka, Remy and almost done deal of Locadia it really does indicate that a forward was wanted irrespective of what is now being said.

To help clarify things I would love to know what Nuno has to say on it all. Is he happy with the squad he has or would he have felt better with another striker? I know what Jeff has said and deep down I hope he is spot on but he isn't the team coach. Nuno doesn't say much and I actually like it this way so accept he may say nothing on the ssue but this is one situation it would be very interesting to have his views on.

The very fact Wolves were apparently in for so many strikers says to me Nuno wanted one.

At the risk of turning this into yet another argument on the same point....

Nobody has said we didn't want a striker.

The point is not did we want one, it's can we cope without one (assuming we don't have one which nobody knows!)
 
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Essex Wolf

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I'm sure Nuno wanted one at least,i'm equally sure the club wanted at least one despite what JS says,the fact we tried for so many tells you that
We tried and failed,we weren't alone in that,it happens,but what irks most is the fact we had so much time to do it,and left it so late to fail
I think most would agree that Nuno wanted one and fact so many were looked at does back up my POV and what you say. It's often said it's better to have tried and failed than never try at all so the club can't be criticised for trying but why was it all left so late? Either the club/someone was overly confident or fate conspired against us? If it was over confidence it could be argued the old arrogance breeds contempt comment?

Even accepting many deals go through late in the day and maybe Wolves were just unlucky, although they say you make your own luck, the sales and loaning out of so many strikers could turn out a bad idea/mistake but we can only hope not. Whilst some will argue the likes of Bod, Dicko and Mason were not suited to what Nuno wanted etc they at least still offered cover if not much else. I would have said retaining just one of those three would have been a smart move if another striker wasn't forthcoming.
 
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Essex Wolf

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At the risk of turning this into yet another argument on the same point....

Nobody has said we didn't want a striker.

The point is not did we want one, it's can we cope without one (assuming we don't have one which nobody knows!)
SYHO, calm down. I'm not here to start any argument.

Your comment in bold above begs the question of why did Jeff make comment that a striker wasn't the most important signing yet the club were by all accounts ready to sign Locadia and ended up scrabbling about to make a signing at the last minute?

Time will tell whether Wolves will/can cope without one but is it a risk that was worth taking?
 

SingYourHeartsOut

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SYHO, calm down. I'm not here to start any argument.

Your comment in bold above begs the question of why did Jeff make comment that a striker wasn't the most important signing yet the club were by all accounts ready to sign Locadia and ended up scrabbling about to make a signing at the last minute?

Time will tell whether Wolves will/can cope without one but is it a risk that was worth taking?

Oh the irony! :D
All I'm saying is could you please stop suggesting that anyone at the club didn't want to make it happen, we just missed out.
 
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Essex Wolf

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Oh the irony! :D
All I'm saying is could you please stop suggesting that anyone at the club didn't want to make it happen, we just missed out.
I've already said in another post I was in a foul mood the other day and lost it. I now have my reasonable head on, I think.

But SYHO I'm not suggesting anyone at the club didn't want it to happen. In fact I'm sure Nuno did want it to happen or else why would he have ever alluded to it? I'm just confused that after all the apparent effort that went into signing a striker Jeff should then say it was not the most important player to sign?:confused: No disrespect meant to Jeff here but feel confident in saying I think Nuno has a better idea of what's needed for where. It's the contradictory/contrary comments that has confused me.
 

SingYourHeartsOut

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I've already said in another post I was in a foul mood the other day and lost it. I now have my reasonable head on, I think.

But SYHO I'm not suggesting anyone at the club didn't want it to happen. In fact I'm sure Nuno did want it to happen or else why would he have ever alluded to it? I'm just confused that after all the apparent effort that went into signing a striker Jeff should then say it was not the most important player to sign?:confused: No disrespect meant to Jeff here but feel confident in saying I think Nuno has a better idea of what's needed for where. It's the contradictory/contrary comments that has confused me.

OK mate, I think you're making heavy weather of it.

Did Nuno want a striker? Yes
Did Jeff want to get him one? Yes
Was it Jeff's no.1 priority? Well he says not but who knows really, maybe that's just being politic?
Was it Nuno's? Who knows?
Did we fail to get what we wanted? Yes
Was is bad planning or did we just get screwed over at the last minute? We don't know enough to say.

I don't see where the contradiction is
 

Black Country Wanderer

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No need for animosity folks we all want the same thing
We may have different views on the subject,and that's what debate is all about,its good to talk :)
 

astraltrader

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I still think that a lot of the frustration felt due to our failure to sign a new striker or two, was greatly magnified by the decision to sell Dicko before this had been achieved.
Bonatini and Dicko was far better than just Bonatini! ;)
 
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