The 20 goal a season striker myth

[northnorfolkwolf]

If we are all honest we would all have loved to have brought in a top striker in the window. We're all kidding ourselves by trying to make out it doesn't matter; it's all ok. We know that if Bonatini gets injured we're going to have to hash something together up top which is not ideal. I don't think Bonatini is a 20 goal a season striker in the way that say Jermaine Defoe is. A fit Defoe in this team pretty much guarantees us top 2. We needed that striker but I still think we have the quality to be in the mix come the New Year when I'm sure Fosun will rectify their error (and whichever way Jeff sugar coats it, it was a big error.)

 

[Deleted member 3518]

Ultimately a meaningless statistic without taking account of total number of goals scored, conceded and final position. Clearly a team set-up to not concede will likely score less goals but potentially be more successful.

Would be interested to see what the statistics show for goals conceded against final position or some formula which compares goals scored / conceded.

 

[lostwolf]

Indeed. Also of course nobody can say we won't have one. Bonatini might well get 20, he might get 19 with 15 each from Cav. Jota and Costa - I think that might get us over the line!

I think ditching the existing strikers was a mistake, one I'm sure with the benefit of hindsight Jeff, Thelwell and Nuno wouldn't repeat.

I can, however, see Bonatini and Jota scoring 20 between them, Costa and Cav each getting into double figures and the likes of Doherty, Baath (from set pieces), Neves, Marshall and Douglas chipping in with a few. This might be enough - fingers crossed.

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

Looking back the average for a top 2 finish over the last 4 seasons is F78 and A40. The defensive option was Boro F63 A31, the most positive one Bournemouth F98 A45 (let's ignore how many were dodgy pens).

Bonatini 15, Cav 15, Jota 15, Neves 10, Bright 10 (once Nuno buys him scoring boots for Christmas), CHs 10, WBs5 gives us 80, without even putting in Costa and the January striker! Relax.

 

[kennyB]

Looking back the average for a top 2 finish over the last 4 seasons is F78 and A40. The defensive option was Boro F63 A31, the most positive one Bournemouth F98 A45 (let's ignore how many were dodgy pens).

Bonatini 15, Cav 15, Jota 15, Neves 10, Bright 10 (once Nuno buys him scoring boots for Christmas), CHs 10, WBs5 gives us 80, without even putting in Costa and the January striker! Relax.

A lot of assumptions there SYHO.

 

[WISAW]

We'll get someone on loan, people need to chill out.

 

[WISAW]

Damn, I've just realised there is no loan window any more! Still no need to panic we've enough quality within the squad, and especially on the wings to share the goal burden. Playing the way we do with 1 upfront who brings other players into the game means we don't have to rely on a centre forward for our goals as much.

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

A lot of assumptions there SYHO.

Confident predictions mate, I always try to enjoy the start of the season as the rest is so often a disappointment!

 

[rincewind]

Suspect the PSV deal was "in the bag" before we let Dicko go. The last minute collapse of that left us scrambling (unsuccessfully). Finding a forward fit our style immediately narrows the field - players like Hugill and Rhodes don't fit.
If our best 11 stay fit and available we may well get away with it. Clearly we would be better with adequate cover though.

 

[lostwolf]

Looking back the average for a top 2 finish over the last 4 seasons is F78 and A40. The defensive option was Boro F63 A31, the most positive one Bournemouth F98 A45 (let's ignore how many were dodgy pens).

Bonatini 15, Cav 15, Jota 15, Neves 10, Bright 10 (once Nuno buys him scoring boots for Christmas), CHs 10, WBs5 gives us 80, without even putting in Costa and the January striker! Relax.

Haha, I hope you're right but I think you're being very optimistic.

Bright won't get more than 5 IMO, I love him but goal scoring isn't his game, I can't see Jota scoring that many (take a look at his record), Neves will score some beauties but I doubt that many and the rest seem optimistic too. Cav and Costa could make up the deficit though, I can see them contributing lots in our new formation and style of play. Also, if we learn how to set up to defend from set plays we won't ship many. It's looking good but a 20+ striker would've helped.

 

[HKWolf]

I would have loved us to have bought a 20 goal a season man, but if buying him means we have to make our whole system revolve around him, then I am happy we haven't. I firmly believe the fluid system we currently play will not only get us promoted but win the league.

The only players capable of scoring 20 a season and playing in our setup are top top players and not poachers like Gayle, Rhodes etc. I think in January if we are looking good this will be addressed and our transfer record will not only be broken but probably demolished.

I think sorting out our disgusting defence from last year was our top priority this summer and thankfully it has been addressed and will now allow Costa and co to wreak havoc with confidence and not get criticised for not tracking back.

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

Looking back the average for a top 2 finish over the last 4 seasons is F78 and A40. The defensive option was Boro F63 A31, the most positive one Bournemouth F98 A45 (let's ignore how many were dodgy pens).

Bonatini 15, Cav 15, Jota 15, Neves 10, Bright 10 (once Nuno buys him scoring boots for Christmas), CHs 10, WBs5 gives us 80, without even putting in Costa and the January striker! Relax.

No chance! I think Neves has only ever scored 4? Bright, under 5 if we're lucky. Cav may not get the game time when Costa gets back so 5 at best. Jota is not a goal scorer, perhaps 5? I'll give Bonatini 15 but no more imo; so about half of what you are predicting. We need a goalscorer in January who can hit the ground running straight away. I don't think we'll let a shed load of goals in but we'll do well to hit the average of 78 imo.

 

[WW1963]

No chance! I think Neves has only ever scored 4? Bright, under 5 if we're lucky. Cav may not get the game time when Costa gets back so 5 at best. Jota is not a goal scorer, perhaps 5? I'll give Bonatini 15 but no more imo; so about half of what you are predicting. We need a goalscorer in January who can hit the ground running straight away. I don't think we'll let a shed load of goals in but we'll do well to hit the average of 78 imo.

This.

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

No chance! I think Neves has only ever scored 4? Bright, under 5 if we're lucky. Cav may not get the game time when Costa gets back so 5 at best. Jota is not a goal scorer, perhaps 5? I'll give Bonatini 15 but no more imo; so about half of what you are predicting. We need a goalscorer in January who can hit the ground running straight away. I don't think we'll let a shed load of goals in but we'll do well to hit the average of 78 imo.

This.

Probably right you pair of miserable buggers

 

[turner845]

Looking back the average for a top 2 finish over the last 4 seasons is F78 and A40. The defensive option was Boro F63 A31, the most positive one Bournemouth F98 A45 (let's ignore how many were dodgy pens).

Bonatini 15, Cav 15, Jota 15, Neves 10, Bright 10 (once Nuno buys him scoring boots for Christmas), CHs 10, WBs5 gives us 80, without even putting in Costa and the January striker! Relax.

As others have said your predictions are way over the top, especially in relation to Bright who has never scored a league goal and Neves who sits deep. Yes he might score the odd goal from distance but no chance of him hitting double figures - he had only ever scored 4 goals in 92 appearances before joining us. Also this time last season Bodvarsson had also scored 2 goals (which is the same as what Bonatini is on now) and only went on to score one more all season. The same could easily happen to Bonatini this season. I also see people saying that Costa is going to score amount of goals when in reality we don't know how he will comeback from injury. He also didn't score as many goals as some like to make out, as when you take away his 2 cup goals and 3 penalties he only scored 7 league goals from open play.

 

[Summer_Wolf]

We'll get someone on loan, people need to chill out.

There is no loan window

 

[The Doog read Voltaire]

Hey, first post so go easy on me

A few people have suggested x player will get x amount of goals to make up for not having a 20 goal a season striker so I thought I’d look into it in a bit more depth. Having done so, as it stands I personally think we’ve potentially got a similar amount of forward line goals in us as Newcastle last yr, certainly not a million miles off anyway…quite a statement you might think, but hear me out!

http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/newcastle-united/2016-17/top-scorers.html

Assuming the above is correct, last year Dwight Gayle scored 23 in the league, Richie scored 12 and Perez 9. After those they had a few players on 5, a couple on 4 etc. They finished with a total of 85 goals. I’d argue that 3 - 5 goals over a season is average in terms of 'team goals' (defenders/midfielders etc.), so if you look In terms of Newcastle’s main goal threat/their most potent players = 44 goals. That would suggest around the 40 goal mark from your forwards is what you’re looking for in an auto promotion team, a few others with five and so on.

If you compare our front four -

Last year Costa got 10 in the league, Cav 6 (personally I think that Cav can add a couple more to that total this season, so far he looks better than last year, he’s got 1 in 4 in the league so far, plus he scored in the Leicester game so I think that’s reasonable if he can stay pretty fit etc. given the way we’ll be set up this year; likewise I expect a couple more from Costa as well, like Cav he’s also going to be playing more of an inside forward role as opposed to mainly being on the wing as he was last season/he has better players around him now).

In terms of the new boys, Jota got 8 in 27 for Porto last year, where he mainly played a wing role I think, and he previously scored 12 in 31 for Paços de Ferreira so I think 10 in 46 is a reasonable/conservative assumption in my opinion given minor injuries/not playing every game; none of them will obviously.

If we also go conservative with Bonatini and only give him say 12, despite his recent career average being better than that and the fact that he’s already got 2 in 5, that’s 36 goals as a main forward threat. Personally, with the way we’ll be set up, over a season, I think those four could score 40 between them. In other words, we’re not miles off forwards wise as a team as things stand right now, esp if you give the likes of Bright, Zyro etc. a few each plus the wingbacks and other midfielders and defenders.

What’s more, it’s not like we’ve got to go the whole season like that, we’ve just got to stay in contact with the top two until Jan when we can add more depth/goals to that already quite potent forward line (surely we’d do that in Jan?). Even with the inevitable injuries we’ll suffer, I think we have enough of a goal threat as it stands to keep us in contention because the goals are more evenly distributed. Which is also a point in itself - it’s interesting how much Newcastle relied on Dwight Gayle last year. If he’d have got a serious injury, that’s half of Newcastle’s goal threat gone just like that…

What do you think?

 

[Guzeppi]

Don't worry, we'll get there.
There's a whole cast waiting... oops, wait a minute.

 

[merseawolf]

Hey, first post so go easy on me

A few people have suggested x player will get x amount of goals to make up for not having a 20 goal a season striker so I thought I’d look into it in a bit more depth. Having done so, as it stands I personally think we’ve potentially got a similar amount of forward line goals in us as Newcastle last yr, certainly not a million miles off anyway…quite a statement you might think, but hear me out!

http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/newcastle-united/2016-17/top-scorers.html

Assuming the above is correct, last year Dwight Gayle scored 23 in the league, Richie scored 12 and Perez 9. After those they had a few players on 5, a couple on 4 etc. They finished with a total of 85 goals. I’d argue that 3 - 5 goals over a season is average in terms of 'team goals' (defenders/midfielders etc.), so if you look In terms of Newcastle’s main goal threat/their most potent players = 44 goals. That would suggest around the 40 goal mark from your forwards is what you’re looking for in an auto promotion team, a few others with five and so on.

If you compare our front four -

Last year Costa got 10 in the league, Cav 6 (personally I think that Cav can add a couple more to that total this season, so far he looks better than last year, he’s got 1 in 4 in the league so far, plus he scored in the Leicester game so I think that’s reasonable if he can stay pretty fit etc. given the way we’ll be set up this year; likewise I expect a couple more from Costa as well, like Cav he’s also going to be playing more of an inside forward role as opposed to mainly being on the wing as he was last season/he has better players around him now).

In terms of the new boys, Jota got 8 in 27 for Porto last year, where he mainly played a wing role I think, and he previously scored 12 in 31 for Paços de Ferreira so I think 10 in 46 is a reasonable/conservative assumption in my opinion given minor injuries/not playing every game; none of them will obviously.

If we also go conservative with Bonatini and only give him say 12, despite his recent career average being better than that and the fact that he’s already got 2 in 5, that’s 36 goals as a main forward threat. Personally, with the way we’ll be set up, over a season, I think those four could score 40 between them. In other words, we’re not miles off forwards wise as a team as things stand right now, esp if you give the likes of Bright, Zyro etc. a few each plus the wingbacks and other midfielders and defenders.

What’s more, it’s not like we’ve got to go the whole season like that, we’ve just got to stay in contact with the top two until Jan when we can add more depth/goals to that already quite potent forward line (surely we’d do that in Jan?). Even with the inevitable injuries we’ll suffer, I think we have enough of a goal threat as it stands to keep us in contention because the goals are more evenly distributed. Which is also a point in itself - it’s interesting how much Newcastle relied on Dwight Gayle last year. If he’d have got a serious injury, that’s half of Newcastle’s goal threat gone just like that…

What do you think?

Much better to spread the goals around from all over the squad rather than rely on a main striker in my opinion. I think Costa is going to be massive for us this season. He will surely enjoy his football more now with like-minded footballers around him. Marshall too i think will come in and make a positive impact. Personally i was more pleased to see another midfielder come in than a second rate striker like some names were banded about.

 

[kennyB]

Don't forget penalties and own goals!

 

[Pengwern]

With N'Daiye now here, we'll have a defence as mean as 'Boro's last season, so the 2:1 ratio of goals scored vs conceded that you need for top 2 is attainable without scoring many more than 60. Nuno is teaching them how to manage games, so I see quite a few clean sheets and narrow victories. Leo, Michal & Donovan's collective total could = over 20 easily and that's just one position. The other two forward positions could easily harvest the same, so that's 40 before you start with the other 7 outfield positions. That's my way of looking at it - by positions rather than individuals.

 

[Wolvesfcneil]

Don't worry, we'll get there.
There's a whole cast waiting... oops, wait a minute.

You don't get actors like that anymore unfortunately

 

[goldeneyed]

Don't worry, we'll get there.
There's a whole cast waiting... oops, wait a minute.

Hmm having a striker or two would be equivalent to having a mast and sail perhaps.

 

[nomadwolf]

Striking striker stats from Mr Spiers re Leo (11 goals in 19 games) & Jota (9 in 19 games)...

To contrast that with Wolves' striker woes over the past couple of seasons, since January 2016...six strikers – Nouha Dicko, Adam Le Fondre, Bjorn Sigurdarsson, Jon Dadi Bodvarsson, Paul Gladon and Joe Mason – netted 13 goals in 138 games between them.

https://www.expressandstar.com/spor...bolton-1--player-ratings/#zOKi3uIbA6yZjDCG.99

 

[Ian]

Striking striker stats from Mr Spiers re Leo (11 goals in 19 games) & Jota (9 in 19 games)...

To contrast that with Wolves' striker woes over the past couple of seasons, since January 2016...six strikers – Nouha Dicko, Adam Le Fondre, Bjorn Sigurdarsson, Jon Dadi Bodvarsson, Paul Gladon and Joe Mason – netted 13 goals in 138 games between them.

https://www.expressandstar.com/spor...bolton-1--player-ratings/#zOKi3uIbA6yZjDCG.99

Can't argue with those facts!
I still remember numerous posts about we shouldnt be selling our "strikers" to rivals as we dont want to strengthen them.

 

[JadeWolf]

What's better? Having one striker get 20 goals, and your next top scorer getting 5 or 6, or having 3 players scoring between 10-15? I'd say the latter, defo! I mean looking at it honestly, I think by the end of the season, as things stand:

Bonatini- 20+
Jota- 15+
Cavaleiro- 10+
Costa- 10+

There's 50 goals at least!

 

[we love jez moxey]

Who would bet against Cavaleiro , Jota and Bonatini all reaching 20 goals?
The way Cavaleiro is playing he looks like scoring every game!

 

[oldgoldheart]

I thought id take a look at this over the last 5 seasons to see if it holds water
Every man and his dog has been calling for us to sign a proven 20 goal a season striker,as every promotion team has to have one apparently,well do they?
If you have one does it guarantee promotion? Lets take a look

Teams promoted in last 5 seasons without one
2016/17 Huddersfield top scorer 12 goals
2015/16 Middlesborough top scorer 8 goals
2014/15 Norwich top scorer 18 goals
2013/14 QPR top scorer 17 goals
2012/13 Cardiff top scorer 8 goals
2012/13 Hull top scorer 9 goals

Teams not promoted in last 5 seasons with one
2016/17 Leeds Bristol City
2015/16 Fulham
2014/15 Ipswich Blackburn (2)
2013/14 Leeds Watford Blackburn Bournemouth
2012/13 Blackburn Watford Burnley Leicester

Conclusions
Having one is handy but guarantees nothing
Not having one makes it difficult but far from impossible
The team gets you promoted not one player

But we might have a 20 goal striker. Bonatini has 11 already with 28 games left. When we powered through div 1 no one scored 20 goals. I reckon it helps but overall goals count for far more.

 

[Nige100]

Striking striker stats from Mr Spiers re Leo (11 goals in 19 games) & Jota (9 in 19 games)...

To contrast that with Wolves' striker woes over the past couple of seasons, since January 2016...six strikers – Nouha Dicko, Adam Le Fondre, Bjorn Sigurdarsson, Jon Dadi Bodvarsson, Paul Gladon and Joe Mason – netted 13 goals in 138 games between them.

https://www.expressandstar.com/spor...bolton-1--player-ratings/#zOKi3uIbA6yZjDCG.99

Incredible stats just shows what dross we have to put up with.

 

[Deak77]

There are goals coming from everywhere in this team,only Ruddy and Coady out of yesterday's starting 11 haven' scored yet. We've also seen goals from Vinagre,Bright ,Costa and N'Diaye among others.

I was as concerned as everyone else that we hadnt signed another striker,but from what we've seen so far I don't particularly think it's a problem!

 

[GoldenHorseshoe]

Striking striker stats from Mr Spiers re Leo (11 goals in 19 games) & Jota (9 in 19 games)...

To contrast that with Wolves' striker woes over the past couple of seasons, since January 2016...six strikers – Nouha Dicko, Adam Le Fondre, Bjorn Sigurdarsson, Jon Dadi Bodvarsson, Paul Gladon and Joe Mason – netted 13 goals in 138 games between them.

https://www.expressandstar.com/sport/football/wolverhampton-wanderers-fc/2017/11/26/wolves-5-bolton-1--player-inratings/#zOKi3uIbA6yZjDCG.99

Luckily we had dangerous to chip in a few.

 

[meeee67]

Hello to all.....not posted before but...scoring goals wins games, not conceding goals wins titles.
Oh and the answer to the main question in my opinion..... nice chap but an average footballer

 

[Tefal]

Looking back the average for a top 2 finish over the last 4 seasons is F78 and A40. The defensive option was Boro F63 A31, the most positive one Bournemouth F98 A45 (let's ignore how many were dodgy pens).

Bonatini 15, Cav 15, Jota 15, Neves 10, Bright 10 (once Nuno buys him scoring boots for Christmas), CHs 10, WBs5 gives us 80, without even putting in Costa and the January striker! Relax.

Well predicted SYHO - not too far from what we are seeing before our very eyes.
What more do you have in your crystal ball?

 

[Plastic Shrapnel]

It's been pointed out above, but I think the converse argument is more persuasive:

2015-16
Burnley - Gray - 23 (plus 2 for Brentford at start of season)
Hull - Hernandez - 20

2014-15
Watford - Deeney - 21
Bournemouth - Wilson - 20

2013-14
Leicester - Nugent - 20
Burnley - Ings - 22

2012-13 (Bit of a freak year - only year where neither of the automatic sides had a 20 goal striker)
Crystal Palace - Murray - 30

So no it isn't necessarily the be all and end all, but it certainly helps if you want top 2.

Great post to counter the argument. But you have to ask before the seasons where they banged them in, how many of those were PROVEN 20 a season goal scorers?

Murray is a no, proven he can score at lower levels, but has only managed 20+ in one Championship season.

Ings certainly a no.

Nugent, not proven to score 20, but in the season before hit double figures.

Wilson is a no too.

Deeney hit around 20 three years running at this level, of course that then proves a 20 a season striker isn't the guarantee.

Hernandez and Gray also were in no way a proven 20 a season strikers.

 

[Deleted member 3751]

When going on about a 20 a season striker during the transfer window I was one of those thinking our front line between them would get plenty of goals... and haven't they just?!! We're getting goals from bloody everywhere. When was the last time we had four different scorers two matches running?

 

[sillytuna]

If you check the top scorer charts, our top three scorers also have more assists than any other players around them.

Says something about how we play.

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

Well predicted SYHO - not too far from what we are seeing before our very eyes.
What more do you have in your crystal ball?

Thanks - I'm fairly confident we'll be promoted - call me Nostradamus!

Currently on target for 97 by my calculations - probably owe Bonatini and Jota an apology in fairness, although I do hope Bright has been a good boy and asked Santa for those scoring boots!