European Qualification?

[rincewind]

This narrative always makes me smile. Yes, we had several dubious VAR calls and some apologies as a result.

However.

If any one of those calls had gone the other way then nothing that took place after that point would have been the same. Absolutely everything would have changed. You can’t just say we should have had 9 (or 8) points without acknowledging the fact that nothing remains the same if a decision is changed.

If we had been given a penalty v Man U then the ball would have gone on the spot for the kick and every player would have been in a different position so nothing that did actually occur would have occurred.

Its fallacy to keep repeating “we were denied 9 points” without understanding that the alternative reality would be completely different to what the actual reality is.

<and breathe>

In the Utd case it was so late that the game would almost certainly have ended in a draw as would Sheffield. Yes, they would have played out slightly differently but odds are we would have 2 more points. Others yes, there was plenty of time for things to fall out differently.

 

[Darvo]

I think the injuries to our key attacking players have shifted the odds against … probably by too much.

Real shame, cos with a fully fit Neto, Cunha and Hwang, I fancied our chances.

 

[Rowzed]

I think the injuries to our key attacking players have shifted the odds against … probably by too much.

Real shame, cos with a fully fit Neto, Cunha and Hwang, I fancied our chances.

The silver lining, if there is one, is that our other players are developing a real fighting spirit and GON is proving his worth in the best way possible.

When they come back we will have a seriously competitive team

 

[Stafford]

our our most realistic chance is if 8th spot opens up, which also massively increases villas chances of Champions league football?

 

[WickedWolfie]

Origi needs to keep his nose out of our business

Hmmm.... Don't post after being in the pub lol.... Was supposed to be originally.

 

[Werewolf of Wombourne]

In the Utd case it was so late that the game would almost certainly have ended in a draw as would Sheffield. Yes, they would have played out slightly differently but odds are we would have 2 more points. Others yes, there was plenty of time for things to fall out differently.

You can add in Fulham to that list as well, possibly the worst decision of the lot for me. So that's 3 guaranteed points to add to the total

 

[Axle]

I think the injuries to our key attacking players have shifted the odds against … probably by too much.

Real shame, cos with a fully fit Neto, Cunha and Hwang, I fancied our chances.

Yeah but it could be that thhe international break has come at the right time and we would get the players back just in time for the run in?

Remember we don't have any more league games until end of March. IF we can beat Coventry we are looking quite well placed for the run in as we will have players back at the right time.

 

[maws]

This narrative always makes me smile. Yes, we had several dubious VAR calls and some apologies as a result.

However.

If any one of those calls had gone the other way then nothing that took place after that point would have been the same. Absolutely everything would have changed. You can’t just say we should have had 9 (or 8) points without acknowledging the fact that nothing remains the same if a decision is changed.

If we had been given a penalty v Man U then the ball would have gone on the spot for the kick and every player would have been in a different position so nothing that did actually occur would have occurred.

Its fallacy to keep repeating “we were denied 9 points” without understanding that the alternative reality would be completely different to what the actual reality is.

<and breathe>

I agree as all the calls bar one are onfiield calls not VAR, the only exception being United away as that would’ve been so late in the game I think we would have held on to a point.

 

[Ginger Chimp]

You can add in Fulham to that list as well, possibly the worst decision of the lot for me. So that's 3 guaranteed points to add to the total

It's not though, is it? Because if the Utd one happened then the other two would NOT have happened as they did. Everything changes after the first changed decision.

Nothing would have been the same after you change one of the decisions. People would have done different things in different places at different times, scores would have changed, traffic patterns would have changed, attendances would be different, what you ate would have changed. Nothing remains the same after you change one decision because the events immediately after that change of decision put people and words and things in a different "orbit" and that changes absolutely everything that follows.

Would there have been other VAR controversies? Maybe, who can tell, but they wouldn't have been the ones we got in the way we got them.



Don't worry, I'll move on from this topic now.

 

[SA Wolf]

I agree as all the calls bar one are onfiield calls not VAR, the only exception being United away as that would’ve been so late in the game I think we would have held on to a point.

Assuming we scored the penalty.

None of those points were guaranteed in the event of the calls being different. Ginger Chimp makes the cases far more eloquently than I could.

 

[Golden Arrow]

In the Utd case it was so late that the game would almost certainly have ended in a draw as would Sheffield. Yes, they would have played out slightly differently but odds are we would have 2 more points. Others yes, there was plenty of time for things to fall out differently.

You're assuming we would have converted the spot kick.
All ifs and buts but we are where we are and just have to just accept things and move on.

 

[maws]

Assuming we scored the penalty.

None of those points were guaranteed in the event of the calls being different. Ginger Chimp makes the cases far more eloquently than I could.

Good point, we probably would have missed it that night we missed everything else!!

 

[Ginger Chimp]

You're assuming we would have converted the spot kick.
All ifs and buts but we are where we are and just have to just accept things and move on.

And that's the key point: we are where we are BECAUSE of those VAR decisions. Those decisions (and the subsequent events) have led us to where we are now. Had we not had those decisions we might be in a much worse place.

(OR better ... both are equally likely)

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

And that's the key point: we are where we are BECAUSE of those VAR decisions. Those decisions (and the subsequent events) have led us to where we are now. Had we not had those decisions we might be in a much worse place.

(OR better ... both are equally likely)

The thing for me is that we aren't there because of VAR decisions, the most you can argue is that we're there because of VAR non-decisions. By and large though we hate VAR and want rid of it, so better to move on, or at least just blame bad refs not VAR.

 

[nomadwolf]

"...It is possible - though highly unlikely - England could have 11 teams in European competition next season. They would be the usual seven spots, plus an extra Champions League place and the winners of all three European competitions (if they finished outside a European position)..."

West Ham boost England's chance of fifth Champions League spot

The Premier League seems likely to pick up a fifth Champions League spot next season thanks to West Ham's victory over Freiburg in the Europa League last 16.

www.bbc.com

 

[Streathamwolf]

This narrative always makes me smile. Yes, we had several dubious VAR calls and some apologies as a result.

However.

If any one of those calls had gone the other way then nothing that took place after that point would have been the same. Absolutely everything would have changed. You can’t just say we should have had 9 (or 7) points without acknowledging the fact that nothing remains the same if a decision is changed.

If we had been given a penalty v Man U then the ball would have gone on the spot for the kick and every player would have been in a different position so nothing that did actually occur would have occurred.

Its fallacy to keep repeating “we were denied 9 points” without understanding that the alternative reality would be completely different to what the actual reality is.

<and breathe>

It is also unrealistically pessimistic to suggest none of those points would have come our way. Your M Utd example; if we had scored they would probably be on 45 and we on 42. You can no more dismiss the 7 points (in my mind) we lost due to VAR than you can assume we get the lot. What you can say is we got hammered by that run of bad decisions and, sliding doors moments or not, we would be better off with better decision making. Even H Webb agreed, quite frequently!

 

[groundhogwolf]

It's not though, is it? Because if the Utd one happened then the other two would NOT have happened as they did. Everything changes after the first changed decision.

Nothing would have been the same after you change one of the decisions. People would have done different things in different places at different times, scores would have changed, traffic patterns would have changed, attendances would be different, what you ate would have changed. Nothing remains the same after you change one decision because the events immediately after that change of decision put people and words and things in a different "orbit" and that changes absolutely everything that follows.

Would there have been other VAR controversies? Maybe, who can tell, but they wouldn't have been the ones we got in the way we got them.



Don't worry, I'll move on from this topic now.

On first read of your post I disagreed completely, however the defiant attitude of this squad of players only happens if they have something to generate this feeling of injustice, namely the early season ridiculous refereeing and var decisions, can’t have one without the other.

 

[Bryce]

Villa City and Liverpool away . One point max
Arsenal at home is a point max
Luton Bournemouth West Ham 5 to 7 points
Burnley away bogey team happy with a point
Forest away probably a point max
Palace home 3 points
Total 12 to 14 points

Not enough for 7th.

Cup for me is the sensible route. 3 wins

 

[Streathamwolf]

Villa City and Liverpool away . One point max
Arsenal at home is a point max
Luton Bournemouth West Ham 5 to 7 points
Burnley away bogey team happy with a point
Forest away probably a point max
Palace home 3 points
Total 12 to 14 points

Not enough for 7th.

Cup for me is the sensible route. 3 wins

I think, based on our season we will get at least 1 more good win against the odds. 15 to 17 points,possibly enough

 

[Chris H]

Villa City and Liverpool away . One point max
Arsenal at home is a point max
Luton Bournemouth West Ham 5 to 7 points
Burnley away bogey team happy with a point
Forest away probably a point max
Palace home 3 points
Total 12 to 14 points

Not enough for 7th.

Cup for me is the sensible route. 3 wins

So the league is unrealistic because we can’t get more than a point against Man City or Liverpool but beating likely 1, possibly both of them as part of the “easy” 3 wins to win the cup is more realistic?

 

[SuperGran]

Villa City and Liverpool away . One point max
Arsenal at home is a point max
Luton Bournemouth West Ham 5 to 7 points
Burnley away bogey team happy with a point
Forest away probably a point max
Palace home 3 points
Total 12 to 14 points

Not enough for 7th.

Cup for me is the sensible route. 3 wins

Against the teams you said 1 point max ?

 

[Bryce]

So the league is unrealistic because we can’t get more than a point against Man City or Liverpool but beating likely 1, possibly both of them as part of the “easy” 3 wins to win the cup is more realistic?

We can beat anyone in a one off game .

Would I prefer to play a big team in the league or the cup it’s a cup every time
Look at Liverpool away last season it man united in our last cup quarter final

 

[Aurum Lupus]

lose to Coventry, end up in 14th still a good season

Talk for yourself, one of my best mates is a Cov fan I'll get pelters forever if they beat us! He's already messaged saying they will, which got a very diplomatic response.

 

[CelebrityWolf]

This narrative always makes me smile. Yes, we had several dubious VAR calls and some apologies as a result.

However.

If any one of those calls had gone the other way then nothing that took place after that point would have been the same. Absolutely everything would have changed. You can’t just say we should have had 9 (or 7) points without acknowledging the fact that nothing remains the same if a decision is changed.

If we had been given a penalty v Man U then the ball would have gone on the spot for the kick and every player would have been in a different position so nothing that did actually occur would have occurred.

Its fallacy to keep repeating “we were denied 9 points” without understanding that the alternative reality would be completely different to what the actual reality is.

<and breathe>

Think there is an argument to be made that some of the awful decisions against us early season galvanized this squad and brought us together sooner than many would have expected.

 

[Ginger Chimp]

Think there is an argument to be made that some of the awful decisions against us early season galvanized this squad and brought us together sooner than many would have expected.

Absolutely. One of the points I was labouring was if those decisions had not happened the way they did, we might not be where we are today.

 

[Chris H]

We can beat anyone in a one off game .

Would I prefer to play a big team in the league or the cup it’s a cup every time
Look at Liverpool away last season it man united in our last cup quarter final

I agree we can beat anyone in a one off game, I just think at this moment in time the cup is by no means an easier route to Europe than the league because there are only 3 games but you have to win them all.

We could lose against the top 3 in the but still get Europe, so n the cup there’s only 3 games but we have to win all of them.

Let’s see what happens Saturday first, and with the other ties. For me at the moment we’re still more likely to finish 7th or 8th than we are to win the cup.

 

[Kashmire Hawker]

West Ham United thrashing Freiberg is very important on the coefficient front and the battle for the extra Champions League spot, which will of course drop European places down the table.

Villa beating Ajax in the Conference League tonight would be even better.

The avenues for us being on a European adventure open up a little bit more.

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

West Ham United thrashing Freiberg is very important on the coefficient front and the battle for the extra Champions League spot, which will of course drop European places down the table.

Villa beating Ajax in the Conference League tonight would be even better.

The avenues for us being on a European adventure open up a little bit more.

Villa now winning. 3 English sides winning tonight has to be good news. Do you know if the England games have any bearing on this co-efficient or is it just club games?

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

Isn't every game a 'one off' (until we're in Europe)?

 

[Ercall Wolves]

After tonight I think if a team who finishes in the top 7 wins the FA cup then 8th place in the league also gets a European place

 

[kidder_wolf_II]

After tonight I think if a team who finishes in the top 7 wins the FA cup then 8th place in the league also gets a European place

Nope. Still no guarantee England get the extra spot via the UEFA rankings yet.

So currently only the top 6 are guaranteed a place in Europe.

Then the league will get an extra place each time one of the following happens.

Extra place if Liverpool, city or Utd win the cup (assuming they all finish in the top 6)

Extra place if England finish in the top 2 of the UEFA rankings

Extra place if West Ham finish in a European spot And end up qualifying for the CL via winning the Europa league

So potentially 9th place could get Europa conference league.

 

[Kashmire Hawker]

Villa now winning. 3 English sides winning tonight has to be good news. Do you know if the England games have any bearing on this co-efficient or is it just club games?

This is all about club performances. The Three Lions have no bearing.

Even better tonight is that Bayer Levukusen are 1-2 down v Carabag and as it stands are heading out of the Europa League 3-4 on aggregate. That will mean only Bayern and Dortmund left in European Competition whilst England have 5.

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

This is all about club performances. The Three Lions have no bearing.

Even better tonight is that Bayer Levukusen are 1-2 down v Carabag and as it stands are heading out of the Europa League 3-4 on aggregate. That will mean only Bayern and Dortmund left in European Competition whilst England have 5.

Thanks.

 

[Titch]

Nope. Still no guarantee England get the extra spot via the UEFA rankings yet.

So currently only the top 6 are guaranteed a place in Europe.

Then the league will get an extra place each time one of the following happens.

Extra place if Liverpool, city or Utd win the cup (assuming they all finish in the top 6)

Extra place if England finish in the top 2 of the UEFA rankings

Extra place if West Ham finish in a European spot And end up qualifying for the CL via winning the Europa league

So potentially 9th place could get Europa conference league.

What if Villa win the conference league and finish in the top 4?

 

[sedgwolf1980]

It's not though, is it? Because if the Utd one happened then the other two would NOT have happened as they did. Everything changes after the first changed decision.

Nothing would have been the same after you change one of the decisions. People would have done different things in different places at different times, scores would have changed, traffic patterns would have changed, attendances would be different, what you ate would have changed. Nothing remains the same after you change one decision because the events immediately after that change of decision put people and words and things in a different "orbit" and that changes absolutely everything that follows.

Would there have been other VAR controversies? Maybe, who can tell, but they wouldn't have been the ones we got in the way we got them.



Don't worry, I'll move on from this topic now.

100%. The butterfly effect.

Always amazes me how people never recognise that. Anyway, let’s not totally derail the thread.

 

[kidder_wolf_II]

What if Villa win the conference league and finish in the top 4?

Good Question. I will try and explain this as simple as possible without confusing both of us lol

So as you know you can’t qualify for 2 European competitions. If you do you enter the higher of the 2 tournaments with the place for the lower one going back to its “owner” to distribute how they see fit.

So in West Ham’s case if they finish in the likely 7th or 8th spot and win the Europa League, they will take the CL spot awarded to them by UEFA. The place in the Europa League or Europa League conference which is owned by The FA/PL which has Already been moved from the FA Cup and League cup (due to top 6 clubs winning those cups) will just be moved further down the league to the team below.

With Aston Villa it’s the exact opposite. They finish 4th (or possibly 5th) and take the CL spot owned by The Premier League and the Europa League place offered to them by UEFA for winning the Conference league goes back to Uefa to redistribute accordingly. Probably to one of the Lower ranked European countries who normally only get a qualifying spot for the Europa League.

 

[wesley]

Updated rankings as of this morning

Link

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

Updated rankings as of this morning

Link

Thanks for this. This is the table that we are all now so interested in. I assume it changes after every round of European matches? Can anyone explain how the table works? England are : Clubs 6/8 Pts 122 Ave 15.250.

 

[hristisenas]

English clubs closing in on fifth Champions League spot for next season

Five English clubs remain in Europe while only three from Germany remain and West Ham’s 5-0 defeat of Freiburg helped boost England’s coefficient score

www.theguardian.com

 

[Oliwolf44]

While it may benefit us and i will certainly love it if wolves get any european football and will forgo this moan but.... looking with a complete neutral head, 8 teams is a bit ridiculous. nearly half the clubs in your top league play in europe lol