Do we expect a very different summer window?

[Sussex Wolf]

Have heard that Saudi clubs are looking at Fabio

Thank goodness

PSR has absolutely nothing to do with any owners external finances.
Every club has to keep spending below 90% of turnover this year 2023/4, 80% next year 2024/5, and 70% the year after that 2025/6. The spending includes the writing down of a player's transfer fee over a maximum of 5 years plus the player's wages.
Some clubs used to put their players on 8 year contracts and write the transfer fee off over 8 years, that isn’t allowed anymore. Those clubs budgets and financial planning have been hit hard.
All the Premier league clubs have a number of players on big wages and/or contracts that last longer than next year and the year after that.
So if you've got down to 90% this year you're going to have to cut costs for next year and the year after.
If you can't get rid of expensive surplus players off the books it's likely to cost you a 10 points deduction at least each year..
At the same time there have been limits imposed on the number of players that can be loaned out.

The above is the perfect recipe for a nightmare conundrum which can make some Agent or Club, that doesn't yet appreciate that the brakes have been applied to the gravy train, make what would previously have been a demand that would have been met, completely screw up a deal.

The TV deals also haven't even gone up by the level of inflation compared to the previous deal.

This is only if you are playing in Europe. At the moment, these are not part of the PL PSR. That might change, but hasn’t yet.

 

[CelebrityWolf]

Seems fairly clear we will be running a tight ship from here on out thanks to the nonsense of FFP which amazingly people are celebrating other clubs falling foul of. People hopefully are aware that we will be losing Neto and probably somebody else in the summer, hopefully the incomings compensate for the proven players we lose. .

Some years it will work fine, others years it won't. Fosuns initial dream is well and truly over.

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

I know some people think PSR is a smokescreen and some think it's real, but I can't see how the amount of money we have to spend can change during the window unless someone high up is deciding we can't lose up to the limits. That's what makes no sense to me. It's got to be very frustrating to Hobbs and O'Neil to get told we've got £10m, then £5, then nothing (having shipped out two big earners). Very reminiscent of the summer in fact.

 

[wolfslair]

if Wolves don’t keep up with inflation they’re effectively reducing prices. i don’t like it, but that’s that.

But to do so in more successive years and the largest %age across the rest of the league?

Where is the extra money going after being told it would lead to us being more competitive?

 

[Starsky]

I know some people think PSR is a smokescreen and some think it's real, but I can't see how the amount of money we have to spend can change during the window unless someone high up is deciding we can't lose up to the limits. That's what makes no sense to me. It's got to be very frustrating to Hobbs and O'Neil to get told we've got £10m, then £5, then nothing (having shipped out two big earners). Very reminiscent of the summer in fact.

Agree with that. Whether we have no money or loads to spend in Jan- it is what it is.

However, that quote from GON a week or so ago on how the situation is not as it was when he last spoke( to the journos) is concerning. As you say, how can it change so much at that stage?

I am positive that at some point over the next 6 months, it will become evident that we don't have a pot to **** in under Fosun, full stop - even if we have cleared the FFP/PSR hurdles from this year.

 

[Wisdomwolf]

Agree with that. Whether we have no money or loads to spend in Jan- it is what it is.

However, that quote from GON a week or so ago on how the situation is not as it was when he last spoke( to the journos) is concerning. As you say, how can it change so much at that stage?

I am positive that at some point over the next 6 months, it will become evident that we don't have a pot to **** in under Fosun, full stop - even if we have cleared the FFP/PSR hurdles from this year.

A little wager that wont be the case. Also can Mixers stop referring to Fosun’s ‘problems’ without articulating clearly what they are. As someone with relative proximity to their business, they are in the best place they have been in for years. Sorry if this does not suit the narrative.

 

[Wolf in Kenilworth]

Agree with that. Whether we have no money or loads to spend in Jan- it is what it is.

However, that quote from GON a week or so ago on how the situation is not as it was when he last spoke( to the journos) is concerning. As you say, how can it change so much at that stage?

I am positive that at some point over the next 6 months, it will become evident that we don't have a pot to **** in under Fosun, full stop - even if we have cleared the FFP/PSR hurdles from this year.

We’ll be clear of FFP by circa £30 million so amortised spend could be £150 million if we wanted it to…..which won’t happen.
Add a Neto sale for PAS profit of whatever he is sold for less his own £3 million amortisation and we are absolutely laughing.

FOSUN then either take that as shareholder funds or reinvest.

We are close in the this period and they don’t want to take any risks which is more than fair enough. Again, come July 1st we are clear and able to invest again…..if we want to.

 

[Skrilla]

A little wager that wont be the case. Also can Mixers stop referring to Fosun’s ‘problems’ without articulating clearly what they are. As someone with relative proximity to their business, they are in the best place they have been in for years. Sorry if this does not suit the narrative.

A few have made their minds up about the owners, and won't change it regardless of what happens. If we spend in the summer, they won't admit they were wrong, just go back into hiding until they find something else to moan about.

I suppose they'd prefer West Brom's owners who won't spend a penny.

 

[North West Wanderer]

But to do so in more successive years and the largest %age across the rest of the league?

Where is the extra money going after being told it would lead to us being more competitive?

thinking of then progress we made very quickly, from championship also fans to top 10 premier league? something has to give.

My seat is £33 a game, that’s cheap

 

[JohnB]

Out Permanent

Sasa, Sarabia, Semedo, Neto, Hodge, Guedes, Podence, Sa

Out Loan

Silva

In

Doyle, Lemina, New CF, New Winger, New RB, New GK.

Hope we keep Cunha, Neto and RAN - but expect (at least) one to go.

Sa to go to Saudi?

Semedo and Sarabia to go to free up wages? Traore?

Silva price not high enough so another year on loan to avoid FFP loss?

Mosquera to start? Can we go to a back 4?

Squad

New GK, Bentley, King
New RB, Doc
RAN, Bueno,
Kilman, Mosquera, Dawson, Toti, Bueno
Lemina, Gomes, Doyle, Traore
Chiquinho, Cunha, Hwang, New CF, Fraser, Bellegarde, New Winger

plus Chirewa, Enso, Noah, Pond, Lembikisa, Griffiths, Hubner

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

Players that we could sell

Ait-Nouri 60m, Sa 30m, Kilman 40m, Fabio 10m, Sasa 10m, Semedo 15m, Bueno 10m, Neto 70m, Guedes 15m, Hoever 1m, Jordao free, Podence 10m, Chem 1m, Bolla 1m

We are clear and of FFP in the future do not worry.

Way over £250m if we really wanted to cash in on some of our major assets

No I’m not saying sell all of them.

Most likely to be

Hodge, Hoever, Chem, Jordao, Bolla, Neto, Sa, Fabio, Sasa, Podence, Guedes, Semedo (only 12 months left on contract)

Over £160m and that puts us in a very good position to spend for coming years.

 

[Cousins78]

Players that we could sell

Ait-Nouri 60m, Sa 30m, Kilman 40m, Fabio 10m, Sasa 10m, Semedo 15m, Bueno 10m, Neto 70m, Guedes 15m, Hoever 1m, Jordao free, Podence 10m, Chem 1m, Bolla 1m

We are clear and of FFP in the future do not worry.

Way over £250m if we really wanted to cash in on some of our major assets

No I’m not saying sell all of them.

Most likely to be

Hodge, Hoever, Chem, Jordao, Bolla, Neto, Sa, Fabio, Sasa, Podence, Guedes, Semedo (only 12 months left on contract)

Over £160m and that puts us in a very good position to spend for coming years.

You play too much championship manager

 

[Skrilla]

New GK, Bentley, King
New RB, Doc
RAN, Bueno,
Kilman, Mosquera, Dawson, Toti, Bueno
Lemina, Gomes, Doyle, Traore
Chiquinho, Cunha, Hwang, New CF, Fraser, Bellegarde, New Winger

Pretty much how I see it too. Semedo has done well this year but with a year left on his deal and now being 30, I'd cash in if possible and look to find a more attacking right wing back. I'd love Kabore if Man City don't want him. I could see us getting Ramsdale if Arsenal come back in for Neto with a serious offer. There's a Mexican striker in Holland who scores a goal a game, could be a decent Raul replacement... perhaps a tad unrealistic though.

As for Neto's replacement (if he goes), Roony Bardghji is going to be special, could we convince him with regular gametime? The lad Brentford tried to sign in the summer, Bakayoko, is also a massive talent. The one thing we have over the top clubs is the guarantee of playing.

 

[Deleted member 13560twfw]

I hope this summer, we are more proactive, and not wait until the last minute. Pardon me, if this fact is wrong. Yet will FFP allow us, give us around £30-£50 million to spend. Considering at the end of the financial year. And onto another three years. Some people are more clued up on this FFP stuff than me. Neto being sold, is an anxious prospect for me, as he is, probably our best player at the moment. Along with Hwang.

 

[DJLWolf]

After seeing how comfortable we've been this season after a huge cost cutting process, there is absolutely no way Fosun will now consider a hefty spend in the summer just to hope to finish 3 or 4 places higher in the league.Frankly, it's hard to argue with that logic, as hard as it is to take as a fan.

We will sell Neto and Ait Nouri as well as a few others (Sarabia, Sasa, Silva) and then spend about 70-80% of those sales on replacements.

I would expect us to make a 25-40 million profit again this summer.

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

You play too much championship manager

Never played it

 

[wolfgar]

After seeing how comfortable we've been this season after a huge cost cutting process, there is absolutely no way Fosun will now consider a hefty spend in the summer just to hope to finish 3 or 4 places higher in the league.Frankly, it's hard to argue with that logic, as hard as it is to take as a fan.

We will sell Neto and Ait Nouri as well as a few others (Sarabia, Sasa, Silva) and then spend about 70-80% of those sales on replacements.

I would expect us to make a 25-40 million profit again this summer.

This is kinda how I’m expecting things. Neto we know is highly likely to move on and it seems like there could be a lot of interest in Ait Nouri so wouldn’t be shocked there? Depends on whether clubs can match what we would want I suppose? Sarabia is on huge wages so could see that, and I think Semedo and/or Sa are also perhaps possibles to be moved on if there is some decent interest?

Decent deals for Sasa, Guedes and Podence would certainly be a big help and boost the kitty (think Silva will be loaned out again if I’m honest). I have a feeling we’ll also consider selling the likes of Hodge and Cundle and perhaps loaning out Traore?

New GK, RB, CM, Winger and Striker to come in? 10-15 million range. Perhaps a loan or two?

 

[sillytuna]

Not sure we'll see the amount of changes being discussed here. The team are playing well and just neto being sold, plus loans or sales of deadwood, is all that is needed.

Additionally it'll be harder to move players on anyway.

There will still be a market for top players like neto but the level below that is going to change significantly, especially wages. This will work well for us but expect the market to be very awkward in late june and august.

Only reason to move sarabia on is wages. He's settled down and he'd need to find a club who'd match them anyway, which seems tricky.

As much as I criticise semedo, most of this season he's played very well.

We're a football club, not a financial company or championship manager. Big changes now aren't required. Neto, deadwood out. Couple of youngsters and cheap experienced.squad players in.

 

[wolfgar]

Not sure we'll see the amount of changes being discussed here. The team are playing well and just neto being sold, plus loans or sales of deadwood, is all that is needed.

Additionally it'll be harder to move players on anyway.

There will still be a market for top players like neto but the level below that is going to change significantly, especially wages. This will work well for us but expect the market to be very awkward in late june and august.

Only reason to move sarabia on is wages. He's settled down and he'd need to find a club who'd match them anyway, which seems tricky.

As much as I criticise semedo, most of this season he's played very well.

We're a football club, not a financial company or championship manager. Big changes now aren't required. Neto, deadwood out. Couple of youngsters and cheap experienced.squad players in.

Difficult to predict really I guess, and what the market will look like exactly? I can’t see anyone leaving us without us thinking its a very good deal and having a decent replacement in mind. I’m not sure some other clubs will be in that boat exactly?

 

[sillytuna]

Difficult to predict really I guess, and what the market will look like exactly? I can’t see anyone leaving us without us thinking its a very good deal and having a decent replacement in mind. I’m not sure some other clubs will be in that boat exactly?

Yep. As long as we can sell neto and loan/sell deadwood, I think we'll be in a good position.

The problem is other clubs and players need to agree to come and we may find we get a year of stand offs while they understand the salary situ has changed then panic moves.

 

[arctic rime]

I think it’s going to be surprising , we are in an excellent position compared to many

 

[hollo]

Ait nouri must be sold at 30 million or more as angers stand to get 9 million. It has to be worth our while.

A lot hinges on whether guedes and mosquera play well at villareal. If they do well in Spain we could get half our money back on guedes, and massive profit on mosquera. That could mean 30 million in the coffers.

 

[rincewind]

I see a lot of optimism with prices we will command or our players. The market will be depressed so generally big prices are unlikely. Personally I think the club would be delighted if they can clear the outstanding payments on Guedes, Silva and Podence. Some profit on Semedo. Small fees for Hodge and Cundle.
Our main hope for a big sale will be the likely sale of Neto. If the Saudis give Liverpool big money for Sala they might come for him. PSG are also possible as are Man City. Unlikely to be getting £50 million + from anywhere else. Of course part ex for players is a possibility. The sell on for RAN makes his sale unlikely next year I feel.
On a more positive note there will be some relative bargains out there if we really have our house in order. A big fee for Neto could bring in 2 or 3 really good players.
Of course, wages are also an important factor and could still strangle some purchases.

 

[wolvesjoe]

A little wager that wont be the case. Also can Mixers stop referring to Fosun’s ‘problems’ without articulating clearly what they are. As someone with relative proximity to their business, they are in the best place they have been in for years. Sorry if this does not suit the narrative.

Fosun have sold most of their best assets to lower debt.

Classic "strategy" of a failing company.

 

[YouGottaRaulWithIt]

Is it too early to start a summer transfer window thread? ... or have we started already?

 

[QB Wolf]

I see a lot of optimism with prices we will command or our players. The market will be depressed so generally big prices are unlikely. Personally I think the club would be delighted if they can clear the outstanding payments on Guedes, Silva and Podence. Some profit on Semedo. Small fees for Hodge and Cundle.
Our main hope for a big sale will be the likely sale of Neto. If the Saudis give Liverpool big money for Sala they might come for him. PSG are also possible as are Man City. Unlikely to be getting £50 million + from anywhere else. Of course part ex for players is a possibility. The sell on for RAN makes his sale unlikely next year I feel.
On a more positive note there will be some relative bargains out there if we really have our house in order. A big fee for Neto could bring in 2 or 3 really good players.
Of course, wages are also an important factor and could still strangle some purchases.

Hopefully wages will also begin to tumble

 

[hollo]

Fosun have sold most of their best assets to lower debt.

Classic "strategy" of a failing company.

They sold 5% of shares in one of the leading Portuguese banks for a billion.

Unfortunately, they won't be using any of it to rebuild the John Ireland stand.

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

They sold 5% of shares in one of the leading Portuguese banks for a billion.

Unfortunately, they won't be using any of it to rebuild the John Ireland stand.

Don’t think people realise Wolves to Fosun are very much small fish in the portfolio. Guo comes and goes.

 

[Bill McCai]

They sold 5% of shares in one of the leading Portuguese banks for a billion.

Unfortunately, they won't be using any of it to rebuild the John Ireland stand.

More like $256m

 

[Madmalc]

If the market is as dead or even worse than this January, I hope the NHS have enough counsellors to deal with the depression just some of the mixers will need help with, never mind the fans of the other 16 clubs who don't get relegated.