Do we expect a very different summer window?

[Black Country Wanderer]

One thing I can say is the season tickets will still go up but will the product on the pitch increase to a better standard?

I am not so sure we will . I can see like last season a couple of players going Like Neto, RAN, or Kilman that then leaves us rebuilding again and most likely putting around half the money we receive in sales back into the team.

Prices everywhere go up with no increase in quality
We all have a choice we can buy or not
This season has been the most entertaining since early Nuno days
We probably havent improved massively on quality,just seem to be attacking more effectively in most games
If your thinking a 10% rise in ticket prices will ensure a 10% improvement on the pitch your probably going to be disappointed

 

[Adrian_Monk]

Another fire sale and yet another annual increase in season and match day ticket prices would be a bold strategy……

Reading some of the posts on here, there are certain people who would probably welcome it

 

[Werewolf of Wombourne]

You mean to say in the 26 days between the 7th January (when Sasa was loaned out) and the 1st February, they could only find four targets who might fit the bill?

Those are only the ones we know about. In addition‘might fit the bill’ isn’t what we were after, we were after players within our budget that GON thought would definitely fit the bill and improve the team. I have no doubt we could have brought someone like n if we didn’t care how good they were, wether they’d fit our style of play and whether GON wanted them

 

[Bankswolf The Third]

I do wonder if the rules will slightly be tweaked I mean listening to talksport yesterday Jim White sounded like he was about to cry with how bored he was.

 

[Skrilla]

I think we’re in a much better position because we can match our losses from 21/22 (£46.1m) plus whatever profits we made this year in excess of ~£10m, expecting that number to be marginally higher though.

It will of course also depend if we can find permanent suitors for the likes of Silva, Guedes, Sasa and a few of the younger lads that are unlikely to make the cut here.

The club will be keeping a keen eye on the likes of Mosquera, Lembikisa, Chiquinho in the hopes they can compete for the first team next season as well.

In my mind, I think we need a top quality striker and better forward options behind our current starters. Quite happy with our midfield, wingbacks, and centre backs in terms of quality and depth. An upgrade on Sa would be nice as well, especially if he’s still wanted by the Saudi’s.

 

[Thank you Sir Jack]

The market very much has the feeling of clubs having ingested liquid paraffin. Everyone is afraid to move in case the floodgates open.

 

[JohnB]

Clubs will be limited in spending. The odd player will go for big money. Saudi still spending (assuming still safe to go to region).

For Wolves will depend on sale price of Neto or RAN. We won’t be spending big on a player but will buy 4 £15m players - who could be great or could be terrible.

Hobbs will be pictured in late August with more house renovations as we’re seeking new full backs.

 

[Willywolf]

Tbh, I’m prepared for it being a quiet summer, other than noise about Neto, Cunha, Hwang and Kilman leaving. I think if Fraser shows promise, then he will be backed as the 9 for next season. Midfield looks safe, other than poachers come for Gomes. I foresee more out than in again tbh. I just feel it’s all business and profitable transactions from here.

 

[BlahBlah]

I do wonder if the rules will slightly be tweaked I mean listening to talksport yesterday Jim White sounded like he was about to cry with how bored he was.

But was he bored because clubs are all in a mess and need a year to get themselves straight, rather than rules needing tweaking?
We've seen years when money doesn't seem to matter and clubs have just kept spending with no punishment.....they see Man CIty get away with it once and think nothing is going to happen.
Suddenly, Everton, and now Everton again and Forest, and the magic money tree dries up overnight.

We know about ourselves because we had to be really open about it in the summer, and we know Newcastle, Villa and Forest have all fessed up to having to change tactics.....but the rest of the clubs also seem to be very conservative as well. The drop in business has been gigantic. But poor Jim White !

 

[Jd132]

I don't think the £105mill rolling losses will ever be a problem for us again if we stick to the 90% (23/24), 80% (24/25) and 70% (25/26) ratio of spend vs turnover in the new PSR regulations.

If we do comply with the regulations (and we seem to be implementing them with gusto), we will start seeing sizeable profits, which will also have the secondary benefit of meeting Guo's initial objective for his investment.

To date in the PL our turnover has averaged at £166.25mill and we have hovered between 95% and 102% being spent on amortised fees and wages. For 23/24, we will surely have got that beneath 90% or maybe already hit 80%.

But we aren't going to be able to let that rise again which means we are going to need to keep reducing spend, unless we improve our turnover, which unfortnately seems pretty static.

Getting the amortised spend and wages for Fabio, Podence, Guedes, Hoever and Sasa off the books would probably do the job of getting us to the 70%.

And with the 70% in mind, I think Doyle being purchased, Semedo being sold or extending his contract and the purchase of a new striker, might be about it for a quiet Summer.

 

[hollo]

You mean to say in the 26 days between the 7th January (when Sasa was loaned out) and the 1st February, they could only find four targets who might fit the bill?

And that's a great point. Does he not trust himself to scout players from other leagues where players are cheaper? Dutch, Swiss or beigian leagues for e.g.

 

[Madmalc]

The summer transfer window will depend on the punishments Everton and Forest receive.

If, as is likely, it's more points deductions, with even a potential relegation or two, the Summer transfer window could be even deader than this one, across the whole premier league.

Those players whose contracts are ending and who are hopeful of securing larger weekly wages as free agents may be sadly disappointed.

I expect we'll be linked to every player being touted around at 30m+ or even 50m+. That will only be a barometer of the desperation of Agents to make some sort of income and a reflection of how far away some clubs are from complying with the Financial regulations to avoid future points deductions.

Most club owners who have their finances in order will not be putting their hands in their pockets to help rivals out.

The new Financial rules seem to be applying across Europe, so there's the chance that even the Saudis will offer lower transfer fees.

There may even be the mutual termination of contracts going on, to reduce costs in future years if there's the financial headroom to do it in the Summer.

The gravy train has had the brakes applied and I don't see the owners viewing the prospect of owning profitable Football clubs voting to release those brakes.

That's just my opinion.

 

[Sussex Wolf]

I’m expecting further sales, albeit at a slower rate than last summer. But equally I’m expecting we will spend more than last summer too. That might include 1 or 2 players with reasonably large fees (20-30m), and likely 3 to 4 players on smaller (under 10m) fees. It’s possible that the headline incoming and outgoing totals are similar, but assuming wages are roughly balanced, amortisation of the incoming fees will help the club to balance the books, perhaps with a modest profit again.

Something to watch out for though, is the impact of the UEFA FFP rules which cap net transfer spending and wages as a % of turnover. If Wolves harbour hopes of playing in Europe, then the club will want to stay compliant with those restrictions too, and that will become more onerous than the PL PSR limits if they remain unchanged.

 

[QB Wolf]

I’m expecting further sales, albeit at a slower rate than last summer. But equally I’m expecting we will spend more than last summer too. That might include 1 or 2 players with reasonably large fees (20-30m), and likely 3 to 4 players on smaller (under 10m) fees. It’s possible that the headline incoming and outgoing totals are similar, but assuming wages are roughly balanced, amortisation of the incoming fees will help the club to balance the books, perhaps with a modest profit again.

Something to watch out for though, is the impact of the UEFA FFP rules which cap net transfer spending and wages as a % of turnover. If Wolves harbour hopes of playing in Europe, then the club will want to stay compliant with those restrictions too, and that will become more onerous than the PL PSR limits if they remain unchanged.

No way are we spending £100m next summer.

 

[wolfgar]

No way are we spending £100m next summer.

We’ll be looking at generating a profit on spend overall, in which case we’d need to be making quite a few sales. I reckon it’ll be more like £50 million.

 

[Madmalc]

We’ll be looking at generating a profit on spend overall, in which case we’d need to be making quite a few sales. I reckon it’ll be more like £50 million.

I wouldn't be surprised if most of the Limited business in the Summer is loans.

 

[Don Corleone]

I think our days of big spending will be few and far between if at all and in that I’m referring to this summer as the OP mentioned.
Neto and Ait Nouri I think will both move on as I can see will Sa. Keep an eye on Toti and Dawson as well as I wouldn’t be surprised by either of them leaving.
Silva needs a permanent home and it’s not at Wolves, the lad should never have been bought but not his fault. Still could have applied himself better when called upon.
So, we ought to generate £110m ish in fees, net off any sell on fees, call it £90m to reinvest? Plus potential money from Guedes?
For me we need four players now never mind selling four to then just replace them.
I just hope we invest wisely and don’t waste money like we have before.
But… I do think we’ll be a different Wolves next season with GON having a full pre season and new players to integrate into the first team squad.
An interesting summer rather than an exciting one I’d say.
COYW!

 

[Flea]

Wages will be a big concern going forward.Not just for us but for every club it seems.
I don´t know who is earning the most at us..but I expect Cunha and Sarabia being in that bracket.
This means there is a cherry on top if we flog them.
On the other hand,I don´t see other clubs spending much on transfers as well..it is a little bit of a general dilemma.

If we are approached regarding Cunha,and if the bid is of acceptable substance..I can see the logic if we decide to sell.
I think Sarabia will move on in a not distant future.He seems to be on big wages and at 32 there is limited quality remaining for us.

Wages will be a much bigger thing going forward I think.

 

[YouGottaRaulWithIt]

We can all speculate, but given Fosun's problems we will probably have to continue cost cutting, or at least sell to buy.

If we can attract the likes of Joao Gomes and find bargains like Doyle, then we will be fine. Hopefully the days of splurging on 'star players' that don't want to be here are over.

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

Have heard that Saudi clubs are looking at Fabio

Thank goodness

 

[QB Wolf]

People have been saying for years the bubble will burst, are we seeing the start of it, it may actually be a good thing.

 

[QB Wolf]

Have heard that Saudi clubs are looking at Fabio

Thank goodness

Have there been any big moves to Saudi in Jan?

 

[YouGottaRaulWithIt]

Have heard that Saudi clubs are looking at Fabio

Thank goodness

Are they admiring his hair?

 

[Ironfistedmonk]

I think we lose a few this summer, most probably Neto, Ait-Nouri and Sarabia on top of those we are looking to move on like Guedes, Sasa and maybe Fabio. It's how we re-invest that is key and we've done alright these last few years with Hobbs, hopefully no more billy big *******s 30-40 mill signings who don't want to come, and more 10-20mill signings looking to make a name for themselves

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

Any big moves to Saudi in Jan?

No way

 

[OLDGOLD]

People talking of a static market and still thinking we will get 80 million for Neto and RAN. I don't see it. That may be year current value, but if no clubs are buying, the offers won't be that high. We send they then have a choice to stick or twist. Interesting times.

 

[Cousins78]

Judging by o'neils comments we must have just escaped ffp by a whisker. Will soon find out when the accounts come out

 

[WolvesinBrum]

If only that were true. We've got players we spent £100m on that are worth £40m if we were very lucky.

I'm convinced that Fabio and more recently Guedes are the reasons Guo has turned the tap off for now.

 

[WolvesinBrum]

I think we lose a few this summer, most probably Neto, Ait-Nouri and Sarabia on top of those we are looking to move on like Guedes, Sasa and maybe Fabio. It's how we re-invest that is key and we've done alright these last few years with Hobbs, hopefully no more billy big *******s 30-40 mill signings who don't want to come, and more 10-20mill signings looking to make a name for themselves

I generally agree but look at the quality and unfolding potential we are getting for Cunha at £40 million.

If we do spend bigger, we really have to get it absolutely right - it is possible.

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

Judging by o'neils comments we must have just escaped ffp by a whisker. Will soon find out when the accounts come out

I think that must be the case, and the sale of Neves saved us. However just to continue to confuse everyone, that won't be in the accounts published for 22/23, so they'll be interesting but not exactly definitive about where we are.

What's more difficult is where we are at in 23/24, you'd imagine the sales have us more headroom than we seemed to have in January, but then we do need to turn a profit this season.

 

[Madmalc]

We can all speculate, but given Fosun's problems we will probably have to continue cost cutting, or at least sell to buy.

If we can attract the likes of Joao Gomes and find bargains like Doyle, then we will be fine. Hopefully the days of splurging on 'star players' that don't want to be here are over.

PSR has absolutely nothing to do with any owners external finances.
Every club has to keep spending below 90% of turnover this year 2023/4, 80% next year 2024/5, and 70% the year after that 2025/6. The spending includes the writing down of a player's transfer fee over a maximum of 5 years plus the player's wages.
Some clubs used to put their players on 8 year contracts and write the transfer fee off over 8 years, that isn’t allowed anymore. Those clubs budgets and financial planning have been hit hard.
All the Premier league clubs have a number of players on big wages and/or contracts that last longer than next year and the year after that.
So if you've got down to 90% this year you're going to have to cut costs for next year and the year after.
If you can't get rid of expensive surplus players off the books it's likely to cost you a 10 points deduction at least each year..
At the same time there have been limits imposed on the number of players that can be loaned out.

The above is the perfect recipe for a nightmare conundrum which can make some Agent or Club, that doesn't yet appreciate that the brakes have been applied to the gravy train, make what would previously have been a demand that would have been met, completely screw up a deal.

The TV deals also haven't even gone up by the level of inflation compared to the previous deal.

 

[WeAreTheWolvesII]

Johnny Phillips told us in that tweet.

The issues at Wolves are not simply FFP, there are 'other factors at play' and we are 'answerable to the wider ownership strategy in Shanghai'.

We were nowhere near as close as some on here believe. Remember, Percy, often first on our news, said we were after a £10m striker in November (Durosinmi) and that some funds were available.

Do you honestly believe we sign nobody if we were 18th?

From Phillips' comments, we basically don't know what will happen, it's all guesswork.

However, we do have a quote from Jeff that said we will be 'more financially free' this summer.

In FFP they have the perfect way to justify doing very little though among a lot of our support, but ultimately we don't know.

 

[Skrilla]

Johnny Phillips told us in that tweet.

The issues at Wolves are not simply FFP, there are 'other factors at play' and we are 'answerable to the wider ownership strategy in Shanghai'.

We were nowhere near as close as some on here believe. Remember, Percy, often first on our news, said we were after a £10m striker in November (Durosinmi) and that some funds were available.

Do you honestly believe we sign nobody if we were 18th?

From Phillips' comments, we basically don't know what will happen, it's all guesswork.

However, we do have a quote from Jeff that said we will be 'more financially free' this summer.

In FFP they have the perfect way to justify doing very little though among a lot of our support, but ultimately we don't know.

Can you clarify how FFP is an excuse? Percy said we have losses of £70m from last season, and £46m from the year before that. That's roughly £115m in losses over two years, meaning we absolutely had to turn a profit of at least £10m this year. Is Percy lying? Am I imagining two clubs being punished for breaching FFP?

Profits aren't simply a case of deducting player expenditure against player sales either, we have continually mounting amortisation fees to pay every year, and the wage bill last summer was probably as high as it's ever been. Nunes and Collins sales produced a small profit between them, but Neves alone saved us from being where Forest and Everton are now.

Of course if we were 18th we would have done an obligation or two if we had to, the point is we aren't 18th, we're miles off that, so why waste our summer budget on overpriced dross. They can afford to match the losses from 21/22 in the summer, so yes there is no excuses then, and I think they will spend big if the right player becomes available.

This conspiracy you've pushed for months about FFP being a smokescreen literally makes zero sense.

 

[Wisdomwolf]

I think it will be one of two windows:

1) Not dissimilar to last summer, 3-4 new names around the £15m mark, but no marquee signing (Nunes style). Maybe a big name out unfortunately (Neto, RAN, Gomes)

2) No new faces and a bit of an exodus, with all signs pointing to a Fosun exit


I can’t see many teams going big next summer. P&S is obviously a real thing, and punishments are seemingly being handed out now (Everton), and clubs are cutting their cloth accordingly. Even Man Utd, arguably still the biggest club on earth, are facing spending limitations.

I half caught the most recent Price of Football Podcast as I was falling asleep the other night, and they were saying that PL teams have something like £1bn in transfer interest payments to clear, and we’re now in a phase where those payments will need to paid down before any big spending takes place.

My gut feel though, don’t get excited about a crazy spending spree at Molineux next summer.

Agree, and not just Wolves

 

[North West Wanderer]

Prices everywhere go up with no increase in quality
We all have a choice we can buy or not
This season has been the most entertaining since early Nuno days
We probably havent improved massively on quality,just seem to be attacking more effectively in most games
If your thinking a 10% rise in ticket prices will ensure a 10% improvement on the pitch your probably going to be disappointed

if Wolves don’t keep up with inflation they’re effectively reducing prices. i don’t like it, but that’s that.

 

[Wisdomwolf]

Clubs will be limited in spending. The odd player will go for big money. Saudi still spending (assuming still safe to go to region).

For Wolves will depend on sale price of Neto or RAN. We won’t be spending big on a player but will buy 4 £15m players - who could be great or could be terrible.

Hobbs will be pictured in late August with more house renovations as we’re seeking new full backs.

Expect more of the Saudi money to shift to France in terms of club investment and better vfm. Monaco and Marseille almost certainly will be acquired. France also offers more players from Islamic backgrounds.

 

[hollo]

Johnny Phillips told us in that tweet.

The issues at Wolves are not simply FFP, there are 'other factors at play' and we are 'answerable to the wider ownership strategy in Shanghai'.

We were nowhere near as close as some on here believe. Remember, Percy, often first on our news, said we were after a £10m striker in November (Durosinmi) and that some funds were available.

Do you honestly believe we sign nobody if we were 18th?

From Phillips' comments, we basically don't know what will happen, it's all guesswork.

However, we do have a quote from Jeff that said we will be 'more financially free' this summer.

In FFP they have the perfect way to justify doing very little though among a lot of our support, but ultimately we don't know.

You get extra merit payments for league position so they are losing money by not bringing in a striker.

 

[Mugwump]

We will sell Neto, and maybe Ait-Nouri, and make a net profit.

That doesn’t have to be a problem, but that’s what I believe will happen.

Jeff’s words of being more financially free this summer will prove to be rubbish.

To make any decent money on RAN we first have to pay Angers 9 million to buyout the 50% buyout clause on his contract.

 

[Jd132]

I went through the published accounts for the last few years to pull out the turnover, amortised player registrations, salaries and profit. I then worked out the spend on amortisation and wages as a percentage against turnover for those years and worked out the three year rolling losses.

The numbers in red for 22/23 and 23/24 are educated guesses for based on information coming out of the club. And then the numbers for 24/25 and beyond show the kind of amortised spend and wages we will be able to have, if turnover stays broadly the same and we need to hit the 70% mark.

The conclusion is, spending and wages will have to continue to reduce, whilst the profits will soar. Sticking to this, is probably what Guo wants, and, given they are the regulations, realistically it is right for the club to pursue this course.

In terms of transfer activity, I am guessing we will be able to hit the 70% by moving on Fabio, Sasa, Guedes and Podence, releasing their amortised fees and wages from the pot. But we aren't going to want to spend all of that as it would simply replace those fees and wages, when we need to reduce the spend.

So I think it is likely to be a frugal summer again until we are confident we are well within the 70%. But even then, with the 70% millstone, we will never be able to spend like we did in the first few years, unless our turnover improves drastically.

 

[Wisdomwolf]

View attachment 40258
I went through the published accounts for the last few years to pull out the turnover, amortised player registrations, salaries and profit. I then worked out the spend on amortisation and wages as a percentage against turnover for those years and worked out the three year rolling losses.

The numbers in red for 22/23 and 23/24 are educated guesses for based on information coming out of the club. And then the numbers for 24/25 and beyond show the kind of amortised spend and wages we will be able to have, if turnover stays broadly the same and we need to hit the 70% mark.

The conclusion is, spending and wages will have to continue to reduce, whilst the profits will soar. Sticking to this, is probably what Guo wants, and, given they are the regulations, realistically it is right for the club to pursue this course.

In terms of transfer activity, I am guessing we will be able to hit the 70% by moving on Fabio, Sasa, Guedes and Podence, releasing their amortised fees and wages from the pot. But we aren't going to want to spend all of that as it would simply replace those fees and wages, when we need to reduce the spend.

So I think it is likely to be a frugal summer again until we are confident we are well within the 70%. But even then, with the 70% millstone, we will never be able to spend like we did in the first few years, unless our turnover improves drastically.

This is an extract from The Mag which is a good, informed fans source run by NUFC fans. They also attribute comments to Richard Masters, PL CEO. The 70% will remain the UEFA rule, so if you play in Europe that’s the threshold and domestically looks like 85%.

Clubs meeting over 2 days later this month, and seen in part as a sop to the imminent arrival of the football regulator.

The Premier League is set to bring in a similar rule, but with an 85 per cent limit.

The clubs are also expected to be presented with proposed measures that would replace the PSR rules, which have a ceiling of £105 million for financial losses over a rolling three-year period.

The Times has been told that some proposals include clubs needing to maintain “working capital” of £25 million, to be sure they can meet any short-term financial demands, and to pass a “liquidity test”, which demonstrates that they can cover their debts in the longer term.

The new measures would also potentially require clubs to demonstrate that they could cope with any significant financial setbacks — such as the sudden loss of a big sponsor or a big drop in income as a result of a dip in performances on the field.