Do we expect a very different summer window?

[wolfgar]

The last two windows gave been pretty sobering really. We’ve got shot of far more players than we’ve brought in, and yet we have done ok out on the pitch despite all the chaos leading into the season. The charges issued to Everton and Forest would indicate our evasive action on spending to have been wise?

I was just thinking back to Jeffs letter and his suggestion we would be much freer to spend this summer once FFP ****ed off? Presumably any spending that will take place will only start in July, but I just wondered what peoples expectations/feelings are on the summer? Are you feeling excited or setting expectations fairly low again?

Speaking to mates, I know quite a few who are excited and think we’ll be splashing out a bit. I know others who think we’ll be sold and that there will be much more upheaval than people think? Whatever happens I don’t imagine we will spend any more money than we generate through sales? Likely Neto, but perhaps also a few others?

Personally I wouldn’t be surprised if its a more frustrating summer than many people seem to be expecting and am setting my expectations accordingly? For sure we will sign some players, but we will also likely lose some very good ones too and our aim must be to improve the squad overall, not weaken it again. Not easy if we are running things tightly. That we didn’t spend this window just gone wasn’t hugely surprising, but people might be less forgiving of a slow and cautious summer ?

 

[Wolf in the sun]

i think everything points to an exciting Summer window but do i trust Shi etc to do that ? Honestly, no, everything is set up for it but just not sure

Everything just feels like we are being sold

 

[wolfgar]

i think everything points to an exciting Summer window but do i trust Shi etc to do that ? Honestly, no, everything is set up for it but just not sure

Everything just feels like we are being sold

I am just refusing to get too excited anymore. Really thought we were going to back Lopetegui last summer, and Gyokeres and Scott would have been fantastic signings by the looks? Circumstances changed of course, understandably so in retrospect, but people will expect something to get excited about this summer. Be interesting to see if thats delivered?

 

[DDPPwolf313]

Honestly, I feel that out of touch with finances and what FFP means from one season to the next I struggle to have any kind of expectation.

Comments from Jeff and co have turned out to be either false hope or just good old bull****.

On the plus side, I find myself giving less of a **** about how much we spend compared to Fulham, villa, forest etc and view every player as they could be the next Lemina, Gomes, Toti, Neto. It's kind of refreshing.

I've always assumed the more you spend the higher up the league you inevitably finish (unless you're a basket case of a club) but in recent years has this changed a bit? Would we have dumped players like Hwang, Semedo and Sarabia before they found form if it was easier to do so? Just a bit of a side thought

 

[Starsky]

Sell Neto for c60m and invest half.

 

[WeAreTheWolvesII]

We will sell Neto, and maybe Ait-Nouri, and make a net profit.

That doesn’t have to be a problem, but that’s what I believe will happen.

Jeff’s words of being more financially free this summer will prove to be rubbish.

 

[wolfgar]

Sell Neto for c60m and invest half.

It would not shock me to see us turn a profit this summer and reduce the wage bill further

 

[sc91]

Hands are generally tied for the foreseeable future, which is fine for what we are, don't live beyond our means.

 

[wolfgar]

We will sell Neto, and maybe Ait-Nouri, and make a net profit.

That doesn’t have to be a problem, but that’s what I believe will happen.

Jeff’s words of being more financially free this summer will prove to be rubbish.

Yeah its an interesting statement, because it could be interpreted (and has by some I think) as the taps being turned back on somewhat, but I don’t thinks thats what it is?

 

[clivewolves]

For Wolves probably not much different. Big transfers out, smaller ones in.

For the Premier League in general this window has been dull and I hope the summer is more active. Get the money flowing. I like the craziness. If Forest and Chelsea want to blow hundreds of millions on players let 'em.

 

[WolfLing]

A lot will depend on potential sales of the dead wood players, and big players like Neto.

A lot of clubs, even the big boys, are still getting their houses in order to try and comply with the 80% cap on wages and amortised transfer spend. On that basis, will any of them have enough spare room to buy Neto? Or does he go to somewhere like PSG?

Elsewhere, we will still need to get the dead wood off the books to make sure we are comfortably inside the 80% squad cost rules for next season.

Our squad only needs a couple of quality additions to really push on in my opinion. If we concentrate on recruiting the right players, at the right price, it will put us in a very good place. Some returning loan players could help supplement the squad too.

We are already streamlined and will be more so when some of the big earning dead wood players are off the books permanently.

Most sides still have to go through the pain of slashing wages and numbers, which already puts us at a competitive advantage when it comes to competing for transfers.

 

[Cousins78]

Neto and RAN prob gone for circa 90 mill, guedes, silva, sasa, finding permanent homes prob get another 30 mill if we are lucky. Can see a surprise too maybe Sa. reckon we will spend 70 mill on 3 or 4 players and get a couple of loans in deadline day. Mosquera and Chiquinho back integrated back in the squad.

 

[Oh When the Wolves]

Not really.

We have an inability to find a half decent striker on the entire planet for 10 million

If Neto goes, we need to also find a wide player. If ait nouri goes too then god help us

 

[Werewolf of Wombourne]

I think there are too many outside factors to consider to be able to make an informed judgement about what type of window it will be.

It looks on face value that there will have to be a kind of reset over transfer fees and that most clubs will not be in a position to spend big in the next few windows until the new PSR has worked itself out. You'd like to think that there may be a reset in player wages but I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.

The big x factor is the Saudi League. If they come again in the summer then there may be a big cash injection into the Premier league and clubs may be able to spend bigger

I think wages will be our biggest challenge. I'd love us to go for someone like Callum Wilson and Newcastle would be willing to sell for a price within our range but I just don't think we'd be able to match his wage demands.

 

[WolfInSheep'sClothing]

The last time we had an amazing summer window we ended up bottom until January.
We can't easily buy 5 players that are better than the ones we have got. Gradual improvements and getting the best out of what we have got is what I want to see. We seemingly haven't done that this window.

 

[wwbug]

No exciting summer window. Fosun pulled all the plugs out to avoid relegation last winter. That was/is their priority.
May be Fosun have put us in mothballs or in the bottom drawer. Were is Shi ? Where is Mendes ?
May be they are going to sell us , which would be easier now than at any time in their ownership.
We had a small squad in December - its smaller this February .
Why is that ? Why did we prioritise letting people go out this winter ?

 

[OLDGOLD]

Neto and RAN prob gone for circa 90 mill, guedes, silva, sasa, finding permanent homes prob get another 30 mill if we are lucky. Can see a surprise too maybe Sa. reckon we will spend 70 mill on 3 or 4 players and get a couple of loans in deadline day. Mosquera and Chiquinho back integrated back in the squad.

This is roughly my thinking as well. Perhaps spend 2 thirds of what we get in. A couple of reasonably well known players and some youngsters, perhaps south American, another couple of under 23 players moving up. Not sure how long such a system can keep you competing though...

 

[Rangiora Wolf]

No. I can see the stars being shipped out to highest bidder to be replaced by cheaper promising players. Some will then be moved out at a later date for a profit as well.

 

[Mardenboroughs Shoulder]

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Homecoming for Neves?

 

[Rangiora Wolf]

This is roughly my thinking as well. Perhaps spend 2 thirds of what we get in. A couple of reasonably well known players and some youngsters, perhaps south American, another couple of under 23 players moving up. Not sure how long such a system can keep you competing though...

As long as its enough to stay in PL, they wont care.

 

[Plovdiv Wolf]

I worry about Neto. Such good player for Wolves

 

[Ned]

We have been spoiled in the past but that was to secure our PL status when we first went up. Every other window except the crucial one last January has been to maintain where we are, it’s hard to see it changing. If we went and spent £100m this summer, where would it ultimately take us? That’s how Fosun are now seeing it, they’ve realised that FFP is crippling and making it genuinely impossible to break into the top 6/7 and stay there.

So, no, I don’t see a different summer, sadly. Or any window until the financial rules are changed to allow fair competition.

 

[Chisels_n_ommers]

We'll follow the crowd and be happy to stay in our safety slot.

Like Fulham, Palace, Bournemouth, Brentford etc.

If we think we are in danger, we'll spend a bit more (like Palace have had to spend a bit, just to settle the nerves).

If not, we'll carry on safely.

If one of our players gets sold for a wedge (like Nunes) we'll put some back in to replace them.

If not we'll carry on safely.

If we're gunning for the top 8 or 9 (or even higher!) we'll sit on our hands and hope for the best. We won't go for it...too much money to break in. Everton had aspirations of doing that. Forest had ideas of rising too, like excited kids let loose on a playground.

This is the way the Prem is all set up and the Prem is predictable and we are established - and the patterns have been plain to see since we got established (just like Palace are).

 

[Oliwolf44]

We will sell Neto and buy some younger players to keep the production line rolling.
Will be fine with it if i can see the smart thinking and planning there.
Eg. the defender coming through to replace an ageing dawson (is this mosquera? bueno?)
the heir apparent to Lemina who is now 30
the winger to replace Neto (chiquinho, enso?)
the striker coming in

 

[Oliwolf44]

So, no, I don’t see a different summer, sadly. Or any window until the financial rules are changed to allow fair competition.

i disagree re the financial rules. you are assuming that if there were none we would spend loads to get into top 8 and also assuming the others stay where they are.
My point would be with no financial rules the others would spend even more than us and the gap would widen further.
City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Utd, Newcastle, Villa, Liverpool, Tottenham, even forest and bournemouth i think would spend more than us without restrictions and spending doesnt always result in higher finishes look at Man Utd they have spent over a billion on their team and its slightly better than ours.

 

[Minimalist]

If we could recoup £50m for Guedes, Podence, Silva & Sasa it would be a good start.

 

[Golden Arrow]

Hands are generally tied for the foreseeable future, which is fine for what we are, don't live beyond our means.

How long is the "forseeable future" as quite honestly I havn't got a clue on where Wolverhampton Wanderers are regarding finances?
There's speculation and counter speculation about PSR, FFP and the club being prepared for sale.

So this forsseable future could be a year, two years or more for all I know.
My mind tells me that we will need to sell before we can buy, so if that is the case Neto and maybe Cunha and Ait Nouri will be saleable assets come the summer, so that money can be generated for possible purchases.

 

[Ned]

i disagree re the financial rules. you are assuming that if there were none we would spend loads to get into top 8 and also assuming the others stay where they are.
My point would be with no financial rules the others would spend even more than us and the gap would widen further.
City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Utd, Newcastle, Villa, Liverpool, Tottenham, even forest and bournemouth i think would spend more than us without restrictions and spending doesnt always result in higher finishes look at Man Utd they have spent over a billion on their team and its slightly better than ours.

I’m not saying we will, I’m saying that we won’t have a different transfer window until we have the freedom to do so if we want.

 

[Black Country Wanderer]

In answer to the OP yes i do expect a more frustrating window than many others do
At the moment we have over £110 mil in losses already breaking FFP rules in 2 seasons of a 3 season period
No one knows yet what the new rules will be for next season but most likely to be 90% of total running costs

We have no idea how the finances rack up for this season
Everyone is saying we made a big profit,im not so sure
Yes we sold Neves and Nunes plus others for a profit,but we dont know how much JL and his mob cost us,and there will be a cost,nor how much GON and his staff have cost,all that comes with a price tag
Yes we have cut the wage bill down,but not as significantly as people think,the previous January window bought in our 2 highest earners with Sarabia and Cunha,plus 3/4 other players all earning decent salaries

All this signals to me that, until we lose the two big loss making seasons, we cant spend without selling our best players
So Neto,RAN possibly Kilman/Sa are all up for grabs this summer and will need replacing probably with much cheaper options
Im not saying thats necessarily a bad thing if we can keep finding gems ,but its a hard pill to swallow if things go wrong

We have seen in this window how every club is being effected by this, and ignoring it will only end up with points deductions,so we have to follow the rules as much as no one likes them,and we will be severely curtailed in the spending stakes no matter what

 

[Flump]

I think we'll be over the very worst of the pain.

But I think to some extent, how the league as a whole is will be the "new normal". No one was really able to spend serious money this window, apparently even Man Utd were pushing against their spending ceiling. The stepped decreases down to 80% and 70% will be a big change for most.

 

[Ned]

Hands are generally tied for the foreseeable future, which is fine for what we are, don't live beyond our means.

Yea this is where I’m at too. We can cripple ourselves if we want so we can mount a season or two challenge for Europe but until we have revenue streams coming from around the world it would be short sighted and would lead to another version of last season eventually. Build from the bottom up on solid foundations and we might see a regular shift eventually.

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

Just to ask a question of fact, are the rules changing for next season? Feel like I heard PSR was going in the bin and the PL was going to align with UEFA FFP and have an 80% rule? That surely makes a huge difference, but I've lost track of it's happening?

 

[Ned]

I think we'll be over the very worst of the pain.

But I think to some extent, how the league as a whole is will be the "new normal". No one was really able to spend serious money this window, apparently even Man Utd were pushing against their spending ceiling. The stepped decreases down to 80% and 70% will be a big change for most.

Yep. Hobbs and co need to be very careful with the PR side of things going in to the summer because the “fire sale” of players who were already leaving the club will convince many that we will “go again” as it’s the end of the 3 year cycle (I think).

 

[Oliwolf44]

I’m not saying we will, I’m saying that we won’t have a different transfer window until we have the freedom to do so if we want.

yeah i dont think fosun have the appetite to challenge and would rather turn a profit so i agree the windows will be the same. i just dont think this argument about fair competition is so valid, it hasnt stopped anyone bar probably Newcastle.
It didnt stop us qualifying for Europe under Nuno, it hasnt stopped Villa, west ham winning the conference league, Leicester winning the league then dropping all the way down, brighton establishing themselves.
Sure it means the big clubs will always be roughly top 6, but they would be there with rules or not. just add in newcastle if there were no rules.
I would argue that because there was no application of rules in 2000-2020 it enabled the big clubs to drive up fees that others cant afford and only through a sovereign wealth fund/abramovich can you bridge that gap.

 

[Werewolf of Wombourne]

Yea this is where I’m at too. We can cripple ourselves if we want so we can mount a season or two challenge for Europe but until we have revenue streams coming from around the world it would be short sighted and would lead to another version of last season eventually. Build from the bottom up on solid foundations and we might see a regular shift eventually.

This in spades!

I think a lot of our supporters don't understand just how far behind the top established Premier League clubs we were in terms of off the pitch activities. 40 years of mostly being out of the top flight can't be made up in a few seasons of being in the Premier League. It will take a generation of being in the Prem to catch up and grow our worldwide brand to the point where our income streams match the levels we need them to be to compete with the likes of Spurs. That is Jeff Shi's remit, he has to build the whole of the club, not just the first team.

Maybe its a legacy of the area we come from or being in the lower leagues for so many years but way too many of our fans have a parochial view of how a club should be run. The League of Gentleman approach is outdated and dangerous to our future. We can't just be a local club for local people. we have to become a worldwide club, no matter how much it upsets the status quo ante bellum pre FOSUN some fans long for.

 

[Black Country Wanderer]

Just to ask a question of fact, are the rules changing for next season? Feel like I heard PSR was going in the bin and the PL was going to align with UEFA FFP and have an 80% rule? That surely makes a huge difference, but I've lost track of it's happening?

Theres a meeting this month to decide i believe
The intention is to align ourselves with UEFA rules which is 70% of operational costs
The consensus is we go in 3 stages 90% 80% then in 3 years 70%
This has yet to be agreed but will almost certainly go ahead

 

[wolfgar]

If we could recoup £50m for Guedes, Podence, Silva & Sasa it would be a good start.

I'd be dancing cartwheels

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

Theres a meeting this month to decide i believe
The intention is to align ourselves with UEFA rules which is 70% of operational costs
The consensus is we go in 3 stages 90% 80% then in 3 years 70%
This has yet to be agreed but will almost certainly go ahead

Thanks. So that's a massive change really. Going from a potential to make big losses (if we wanted to) into having to make a substantial profit (assuming other costs don't amount to 30%). If I've got it right we're already in 90% for UEFA aren't we, so seems a bit odd to start at 90% next season rather than go one year behind?

 

[WolvesAndCows]

I'd expect 3 or 4 players to come in, plus Mosquera to be part of the squad. A big player may be sold for big money, plus a few outsiders like Guedes, Silva and Sasa. It will all even itself out and we'll break even, come the end of the window

 

[lets all have a disco]

We need a bit of a cull , similar to last season but with players who have come to an end with us....too many players out on loan.....you could include some of the senior kids in this group as well......this could set us up for another cycle of players and development players.....this is before we start on the first team squad....they will be quite a few outs again next summer...