marrs-guitar
Just doesn't shut up
- Joined
- Aug 22, 2005
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(...AKA it's an international weekend with no Wolves game...)
While the league table is taking shape at 8 games in, the impact of the "luck" of the fixture computer is still too significant to use the real league table as the sole basis for a team's performance to date.
To combat this I decided to look at how teams were performing in comparison to their results in the exact same fixtures last season.
Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 8 games):
5 points down on last season (10 pts vs 15 pts from the same fixtures last season)
Comparative results table:
Liverpool (91 pts needed for title)
Manchester City
Chelsea
Arsenal (65 pts needed for CL)
Tottenham
Manchester Utd
Leicester
Crystal Palace
Wolves (9th on 52 pts; i.e. 57 points of last season less the 5 points we are down to date)
West Ham
Everton
Newcastle
Bournemouth
Watford
Burnley
Southampton
Brighton (38 pts needed for safety)
Norwich
Sheffield Utd
Aston Villa
(Note: the 3 promoted clubs' performance has been compared with the equivalent fixtures of the 3 relegated clubs; for this purpose, I compared like-for-like i.e. the "strongest" relegated side (Cardiff; 18th place) are used for the "strongest promoted side (Norwich, 1st place) and so on).
Comments:
On average, Crystal Palace are the most improved side to date (ave. 0.625 points up per fixture), while Manchester City are the worst comparatively (earning ave. 1 point less per fixture).
Wolves are the (joint) 16th worst performer in this comparison (ave. 0.625 points down per fixture), the same as Everton. Only Watford, Tottenham and Manchester City have worse figures here.
...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 18th(!). This arises as we won 42 pts in the equivalent 30 fixtures last season which we still have to come. Earning an ave. 0.625 fewer points per fixture would mean only gaining 23.25 pts in the forthcoming 30 fixtures to add to our 10 points to date.
The positive is that 8 fixtures provides such a limited sample size that firm conclusions cannot yet be drawn. Let's see how this progresses from matchday to matchday...
While the league table is taking shape at 8 games in, the impact of the "luck" of the fixture computer is still too significant to use the real league table as the sole basis for a team's performance to date.
To combat this I decided to look at how teams were performing in comparison to their results in the exact same fixtures last season.
Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 8 games):
5 points down on last season (10 pts vs 15 pts from the same fixtures last season)
Comparative results table:
Liverpool (91 pts needed for title)
Manchester City
Chelsea
Arsenal (65 pts needed for CL)
Tottenham
Manchester Utd
Leicester
Crystal Palace
Wolves (9th on 52 pts; i.e. 57 points of last season less the 5 points we are down to date)
West Ham
Everton
Newcastle
Bournemouth
Watford
Burnley
Southampton
Brighton (38 pts needed for safety)
Norwich
Sheffield Utd
Aston Villa
(Note: the 3 promoted clubs' performance has been compared with the equivalent fixtures of the 3 relegated clubs; for this purpose, I compared like-for-like i.e. the "strongest" relegated side (Cardiff; 18th place) are used for the "strongest promoted side (Norwich, 1st place) and so on).
Comments:
On average, Crystal Palace are the most improved side to date (ave. 0.625 points up per fixture), while Manchester City are the worst comparatively (earning ave. 1 point less per fixture).
Wolves are the (joint) 16th worst performer in this comparison (ave. 0.625 points down per fixture), the same as Everton. Only Watford, Tottenham and Manchester City have worse figures here.
...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 18th(!). This arises as we won 42 pts in the equivalent 30 fixtures last season which we still have to come. Earning an ave. 0.625 fewer points per fixture would mean only gaining 23.25 pts in the forthcoming 30 fixtures to add to our 10 points to date.
The positive is that 8 fixtures provides such a limited sample size that firm conclusions cannot yet be drawn. Let's see how this progresses from matchday to matchday...
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