Comparative results table

[marrs-guitar]

(...AKA it's an international weekend with no Wolves game...)

While the league table is taking shape at 8 games in, the impact of the "luck" of the fixture computer is still too significant to use the real league table as the sole basis for a team's performance to date.

To combat this I decided to look at how teams were performing in comparison to their results in the exact same fixtures last season.

Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 8 games):
5 points down on last season (10 pts vs 15 pts from the same fixtures last season)

Comparative results table:
Liverpool (91 pts needed for title)
Manchester City
Chelsea
Arsenal (65 pts needed for CL)
Tottenham
Manchester Utd
Leicester
Crystal Palace
Wolves (9th on 52 pts; i.e. 57 points of last season less the 5 points we are down to date)
West Ham
Everton
Newcastle
Bournemouth
Watford
Burnley
Southampton
Brighton (38 pts needed for safety)
Norwich
Sheffield Utd
Aston Villa
(Note: the 3 promoted clubs' performance has been compared with the equivalent fixtures of the 3 relegated clubs; for this purpose, I compared like-for-like i.e. the "strongest" relegated side (Cardiff; 18th place) are used for the "strongest promoted side (Norwich, 1st place) and so on).

Comments:
On average, Crystal Palace are the most improved side to date (ave. 0.625 points up per fixture), while Manchester City are the worst comparatively (earning ave. 1 point less per fixture).

Wolves are the (joint) 16th worst performer in this comparison (ave. 0.625 points down per fixture), the same as Everton. Only Watford, Tottenham and Manchester City have worse figures here.

...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 18th(!). This arises as we won 42 pts in the equivalent 30 fixtures last season which we still have to come. Earning an ave. 0.625 fewer points per fixture would mean only gaining 23.25 pts in the forthcoming 30 fixtures to add to our 10 points to date.

The positive is that 8 fixtures provides such a limited sample size that firm conclusions cannot yet be drawn. Let's see how this progresses from matchday to matchday...

 

[Lowveld Wolf]

I would snatch your hand off for an 8th place finish, marrs, however I guarantee that the final table won't look like that!

 

[OLDGOLD]

Marrs it's good work, but the sample is small, there are different teams in the league this year etc etc.
What I am really saying is...have a beer.

 

[wallace]

That's a whole bunch of ifs, buts and maybes. Lets play the games and see where we finish.

 

[VancouverWolf]

I would snatch your hand off for an 8th place finish, marrs, however I guarantee that the final table won't look like that!

Yeah.....I’d take 8th. I’m not in the least worried, I just feel it would be great with a couple good cup runs.

 

[Tipton Wolves]

We have played most of the top half of the league. We didn't by this time last year.

 

[arctic rime]

Wolves will finish top half and have a great run in one of the cups , in my humble opinion of course

 

[Pagey]

I would snatch your hand off for an 8th place finish, marrs, however I guarantee that the final table won't look like that!

But in the table above we are 9th?

 

[Deleted member LP 3925]

I love the way Villa are bottom. Great work by a Wolves supporter

 

[glorybox]

I have considered producing a comparative table which recalculates the points earned so far for each team relevant to where each opponent finished last season. I have started it in a fashion but time is against me. Any volunteers to complete this who have a lot of time on their hands ..?

 

[Vicious Sid]

Yeah.....I’d take 8th. I’m not in the least worried, I just feel it would be great with a couple good cup runs.

just stand back and see what that means in the context of our record of the last 40 years.
we'll accept 8th in the prem as long as we have two cup runs as well !
not criticising, i'm still hoping for top 6.

 

[WasStefan]

Whilst i like the thread, any analysis is fundamentally flawed until half of the season is played.

 

[Deleted member 8913]

Good work and I am sure we will all like to see your updates. However I would caution that the past is no guarantee of the future ...after eight games wolves have not repeated a single result so prediction based on last seasons results is likely to be fun but wildly inaccurate ...

Last season we certainly exceeded expectations with those wins and the away win against Manchester City should convince us anything can happen in any game...which is why I am always nervous wreck.

 

[Peszkywolf]

Anyone can beat anyone in the prem this season...
Except Liverpool. And Watford might carry on their poor form.
Maybe it means the necessary points for 6th will be lower if everyone's sharing the points??

 

[Direwolf]

I think it is more interesting to analyse who we have actually played home and away so far and how they are performing this season and their present league form and league position. Draws against Palace and Leicester are relatively decent results where as the loss to Everton was poor and the draw at home to Manchester was disappointing.

 

[marrs-guitar]

Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 9 games):
7 points down on last season (11 pts vs 18 pts from the same fixtures last season)

Comparative results table:
Liverpool (91 pts needed for the title)
Manchester City
Chelsea
Manchester Utd (64 pts needed for CL)
Arsenal
Tottenham
Leicester
Crystal Palace
Everton
Wolves (10th on 50 pts)
Newcastle
West Ham
Bournemouth
Watford
Burnley
Southampton
Norwich (36 pts needed for survival)
Brighton
Sheffield Utd
Aston Villa

Comments on trend:
On average, Crystal Palace and Leicester are the most improved sides to date of those in the league last year (ave. 0.556 points up per fixture), though Aston Villa are gaining 1 point per fixture more than their direct comparison (Huddersfield) did last season. Tottenham are now the worst side comparatively (earning ave. 1 point less per fixture).

Wolves are the (joint) 17th worst performer in this comparison (ave. 0.778 points down per fixture), together with Watford. Tottenham and Manchester City are the only sides with worse figures here.

...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 19th.

 

[marrs-guitar]

Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 10 games):
9 points down on last season (12 pts vs 21 pts from the same fixtures last season)

Comparative results table:
Liverpool (91 pts needed for the title)
Manchester City
Chelsea
Manchester Utd (65 pts needed for CL)
Arsenal
Tottenham
Leicester
Everton
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
Wolves (11th on 48 pts)
West Ham
Bournemouth
Watford
Burnley
Southampton
Norwich (36 pts needed for survival)
Brighton
Sheffield Utd
Aston Villa

Comments on trend:
On average, Leicester are the most improved side to date of those in the league last year (ave. 0.5 points up per fixture), though Aston Villa are gaining 0.9 point per fixture more than their direct comparison (Huddersfield) did last season.

Wolves and Tottenham are now the worst sides comparatively (earning ave. 0.9 point less per fixture).

...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 20th.

 

[Contrarian]

I get that we are on course to finish lower than last season. But I don't get how we can possibly be doing worse than Watford? They must be falling well short of last season? And everybody says we had the most difficult season start, not them.

 

[marrs-guitar]

I get that we are on course to finish lower than last season. But I don't get how we can possibly be doing worse than Watford? They must be falling well short of last season? And everybody says we had the most difficult season start, not them.

Watford are "only" actually down 5 points on their equivalent results from last season. Here are the teams doing worse in full:

1 point less: Bournemouth, Brighton, Man Utd
2 points less: Everton
5 points less: Watford
6 points less: Arsenal, West Ham
8 points less: Man City
9 points less: Tottenham, Wolves

 

[Contrarian]

Watford are "only" actually down 5 points on their equivalent results from last season. Here are the teams doing worse in full:

1 point less: Bournemouth, Brighton, Man Utd
2 points less: Everton
5 points less: Watford
6 points less: Arsenal, West Ham
8 points less: Man City
9 points less: Tottenham, Wolves

That is a bit worrying, when put like that! Watford could turn it round, performance wise they look ahead of Newcastle and Southampton at least. Presumably the newly promoted teams can't really be calculated in. Although I see you've based it on position, it feels like Norwich are performing similar to Fulham, Sheff Utd similar to us and Villa are last seasons Cardiff. Hopefully.

 

[Deleted member 8913]

This is not worrying ...this thread is just total nonsense..

Let me explain....we have played ten games ....not a single result has been the same as last year...this the assumption that our next w8 will reflect last year is statistical nonsense too.

The current table reflects current results and is a far better indication of how we are doing...certainly not as good as last year but who knows because form changes rapidly in football.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that results to date suggest we will not get a top four champions league spot.

 

[Chiswick_Wolf]

Early on in the season I always like to use Goal Difference as a bit of a guide as to whether a team's league position is somewhat distorted based on - maybe who they've played etc. We'd be 10th based on GD currently. GD also suggests Palace and West Ham are probably a bit higher than their play has suggested. No one is really worse off. So we’re more or less where we should be. With points so tight between teams, league position is a bit of a distorted measure anyway.

I also notice that in XPoint terms we should be 9th. So again it’s generally pointing to us being there or there abouts. Our XG puts us low - 13th. XA puts us 8th. In other words, if we can start scoring a few more, we should be in a good place.

I know plenty will say “the table never lies” well early on in the season it doesn’t necessarily tell the full story.

 

[marrs-guitar]

Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 11 games):
9 points down on last season (13 pts vs 22 pts from the same fixtures last season)

Comparative results table:
Liverpool (91 pts needed for the title)
Manchester City
Chelsea
Arsenal (63 pts needed for CL)
Manchester Utd
Tottenham
Leicester
Everton
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Wolves (11th on 48 pts)
Bournemouth
Watford
West Ham
Burnley
Southampton
Brighton (36 pts needed for survival)
Norwich
Sheffield Utd
Aston Villa

Comments on trend:
On average, Leicester and Newcastle are the most improved sides to date of those in the league last year (ave. 0.73 points up per fixture), though Aston Villa are gaining 0.82 points per fixture more than their direct comparison (Huddersfield) did last season.

Tottenham are now the outright worst side comparatively (earning ave. 1 point less per fixture). Wolves and West Ham then have the next worst comparative records (both earning 0.82 points less per fixture than last season)

...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 19th.

 

[Benny78]

Crazy. We really should’ve converted a couple of the draws which would put us top 5. It’s a fascinating moment in the season.

 

[marrs-guitar]

Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 12 games):
6 points down on last season (16 pts vs 22 pts from the same fixtures last season)

Comparative results table:
Liverpool (90 pts needed for the title)
Manchester City
Chelsea
Arsenal (63 pts needed for CL)
Manchester Utd
Leicester
Tottenham
Everton
Newcastle
Wolves (10th on 51 pts)
Crystal Palace
Bournemouth
Watford
West Ham
Burnley
Southampton
Brighton (36 pts needed for survival)
Norwich
Sheffield Utd
Aston Villa

Comments on trend:
On average, Leicester and Newcastle remain the most improved sides to date of those in the league last year (ave. 0.667 points up per fixture).

Tottenham remain the worst side comparatively (earning ave. 1.08 point less per fixture), with Manchester City and West Ham following (both earning 0.75 points less per fixture than last season).

Wolves saw an improvement for the first time since winning at the Etihad and are on average now "just" 0.5 points down on last season
...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 14th.

 

[SBDJ]

That is a bit worrying, when put like that!

I'm not worried

 

[Me Babbies]

Crazy. We really should’ve converted a couple of the draws which would put us top 5. It’s a fascinating moment in the season.

yeah 2 points at Leicester (VAR Hand ball - last year is a win)
Saints at home (not the handball goal but the 2nd VAR goal - last year is a win)
would have taken us to 22 points & clear 5th place 3 points of off 4th...

 

[madwolf]

so many if and buts, as always run with Nuno’s mantra.... one game at a time.

 

[SA Wolf]

yeah 2 points at Leicester (VAR Hand ball - last year is a win)
Saints at home (not the handball goal but the 2nd VAR goal - last year is a win)
would have taken us to 22 points & clear 5th place 3 points of off 4th...

Wouldn't it have taken us to 20 points? We drew each match not lost!

 

[ShropshireLad]

Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 11 games):
9 points down on last season (13 pts vs 22 pts from the same fixtures last season)
Comments on trend:
On average, Leicester and Newcastle are the most improved sides to date of those in the league last year (ave. 0.73 points up per fixture), though Aston Villa are gaining 0.82 points per fixture more than their direct comparison (Huddersfield) did last season.

Tottenham are now the outright worst side comparatively (earning ave. 1 point less per fixture). Wolves and West Ham then have the next worst comparative records (both earning 0.82 points less per fixture than last season)

...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 19th.

I am interested in comparative performances but on a more positive note, we only gained four points last season from our six fixtures against the relegated teams. This season we've already won three points from one fixture against the promoted teams.

The future is bright, the future is old gold...

 

[Me Babbies]

Wouldn't it have taken us to 20 points? We drew each match not lost!

doh yeah,
I need to stop working while on the mix.
its getting in the way lol.

 

[marrs-guitar]

Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 13 games):
4 points down on last season (19 pts vs 23 pts from the same fixtures last season)

Comparative results table:
Liverpool (90 pts needed for the title)
Manchester City
Chelsea
Leicester (63 pts needed to guarantee CL)
Arsenal
Manchester Utd
Tottenham
Wolves (8th on 53 pts)
Everton
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Bournemouth
Watford
Burnley
West Ham
Southampton
Norwich (38 pts needed for survival)
Brighton
Sheffield Utd
Aston Villa

Comments on trend:
Leicester are the outright most improved side to date on average (ave. 0.769 points up per fixture), equalling 10 points more in total.

Tottenham remain the worst side comparatively (earning ave. 1 point less per fixture), with Manchester City and West Ham again following on (both earning 0.692 points less per fixture than last season).

Wolves recorded an improved result for the second successive game and are on average now "just" 0.307 points down on last season
...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 14th.

 

[SA Wolf]

Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 13 games):
4 points down on last season (19 pts vs 23 pts from the same fixtures last season)

Comparative results table:
Liverpool (90 pts needed for the title)
Manchester City
Chelsea
Leicester (63 pts needed to guarantee CL)
Arsenal
Manchester Utd
Tottenham
Wolves (8th on 53 pts)
Everton
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Bournemouth
Watford
Burnley
West Ham
Southampton
Norwich (38 pts needed for survival)
Brighton
Sheffield Utd
Aston Villa

Comments on trend:
Leicester are the outright most improved sides to date on average (ave. 0.769 points up per fixture), equalling 10 points more in total.

Tottenham remain the worst side comparatively (earning ave. 1 point less per fixture), with Manchester City and West Ham again following on (both earning 0.692 points less per fixture than last season).

Wolves recorded an improved result for the second successive game and are on average now "just" 0.307 points down on last season
...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 14th.

Interesting. Love seeing the Villa bottom, although they will move up following last night's result. Thanks for doing this, marrs.

 

[marrs-guitar]

Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 14 games):
6 points down on last season (20 pts vs 26 pts from the same fixtures last season)

Comparative results table:
Liverpool (91 pts needed for the title)
Manchester City
Chelsea
Leicester (61 pts needed for the CL)
Arsenal
Manchester Utd
Tottenham
Wolves (8th on 51 pts)
Everton
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
Bournemouth
West Ham
Burnley
Watford
Southampton
Norwich (38 pts needed for survival)
Brighton
Sheffield Utd
Aston Villa

Comments on trend:
Leicester remain the outright most improved side to date on average (ave. 0.929 points up per fixture), equalling 13 points more in total.

Tottenham remain the worst side comparatively (earning ave. 0.929 point less per fixture), followed by Arsenal (earning 0.714 points less per fixture than last season).

After two improved comparative results in the last two matchdays, Wolves recorded a negative comparative result (we won the equivalent game last season) and so fall back to minus 6 on last season's equivalent results.
Overall, we are gaining an ave. 0.429 less per fixture...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 16th.

 

[marrs-guitar]

Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 15 games):
6 points down on last season (23 pts vs 29 pts from the same fixtures last season)

Comparative results table:
Liverpool (91 pts needed for the title)
Manchester City
Chelsea
Leicester (62 pts needed for the CL)
Manchester Utd
Arsenal
Tottenham
Wolves (8th on 51 pts)
Everton
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
Bournemouth
West Ham
Southampton
Burnley
Watford
Brighton (37 pts needed for survival)
Norwich
Sheffield Utd
Aston Villa

Comments on trend:
Leicester remain the outright most improved side to date on average (ave. 0.866 points up per fixture), equalling 13 points more in total.

Tottenham remain the worst side comparatively (earning ave. just over 1 point less per fixture), followed by Arsenal (earning 0.733 points less per fixture than last season).

Wolves did all they could this matchday, winning a fixture also won last season and so limiting the points loss to minus 6.
Overall, we are gaining an ave. 0.4 less per fixture...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 15th.

 

[WolfInSheep'sClothing]

Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 15 games):
6 points down on last season (23 pts vs 29 pts from the same fixtures last season)

Comparative results table:
Liverpool (91 pts needed for the title)
Manchester City
Chelsea
Leicester (62 pts needed for the CL)
Manchester Utd
Arsenal
Tottenham
Wolves (8th on 51 pts)
Everton
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
Bournemouth
West Ham
Southampton
Burnley
Watford
Brighton (37 pts needed for survival)
Norwich
Sheffield Utd
Aston Villa

Comments on trend:
Leicester remain the outright most improved sides to date on average (ave. 0.866 points up per fixture), equalling 13 points more in total.

Tottenham remain the worst side comparatively (earning ave. just over 1 point less per fixture), followed by Arsenal (earning 0.733 points less per fixture than last season).

Wolves did all they could this matchday, winning a fixture also won last season and so limiting the points loss to minus 6.
Overall, we are gaining an ave. 0.4 less per fixture...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 15th.

Next couple of fixtures coming up are Brighton away and tottenham at home. Last year we got 0 points against these two. It's not really possible for us to get -0.8 points over these two fixtures. I'm not sure who you are comparing Norwich with but depending on the club this could be the same. Man city at home we got a point against last season but liverpool beat us twice.
From that run of games, I don't think it is possible to achieve -0.8 points per game, and I wonder how plausible it is at other parts of the season too.

 

[marrs-guitar]

Wolves' comparative performance to date (after 16 games):
5 points down on last season (24 pts vs 29 pts from the same fixtures last season)

Comparative results table:
Liverpool (88 pts needed for the title)
Manchester City
Chelsea
Leicester (65 pts needed for the CL)
Manchester Utd
Arsenal
Tottenham
Wolves (8th on 52 pts)
Crystal Palace
Everton
Newcastle
Bournemouth
Southampton
Burnley
West Ham
Watford
Sheffield Utd (38 pts needed for survival)
Brighton
Norwich
Aston Villa

Comments on trend:
Leicester remain the outright most improved side to date on average (ave. 0.813 points up per fixture), equalling 13 points more in total.

Tottenham remain the worst side comparatively (earning ave. 1 point less per fixture), now followed by Manchester City (earning 0.688 points less per fixture than last season).

Wolves improved on the equivalent game by gaining a point from Brighton (last season: 0-1 loss), thereby cutting the overall figure to minus 5.
Overall, we are gaining an ave. 0.313 less per fixture...if you applied this trend across the remaining fixtures, Wolves would finish 13th.

 

[itsmee]

obviously a lot if hard work went into this analysis
But you cant analyse like this its meaningless
It doesnt work
Wolves wont
You have too much time on your hands
You need a beer
Stop!! (Please)
Enjoy the Wolves matches mate

 

[SA Wolf]

Thanks for this Marrs. Always interesting and of course it's the only way to compare one season with another.

 

[Bondi Wolf]

Great analysis Marrs. At almost halfway through this is a good indication of how we are doing. I think we will be close to this apart from a couple of teams that either sink or get their mojo

8th with a Europe run is brilliant in my view

Keep us informed and show your forecasts at the end of the season please.