Burnley Verdict

[JOSWolf]

I remember the pelters I got on here for saying we had the worst squad depth in the Premier League. Now Gaz is saying it's the entire English professional divisions.

You better believe I'll be petty enough to dig out those posters haha. Actually had people arguing with me that our squad was no worse than Man United's, Chelsea's, Fulham's, Forest's etc.

Said posters wont like you doing this but said posters are quite happy to dig other posters posts out on other topics at times!

 

[we love jez moxey]

Because if you look after every game and then think about it, it tends to reflect what you saw?

People tend to get hyperbolic about games, especially if they were drinking. Case in point today, really.

Can't you just say what you saw? Why do you need a bogus stat to explain it?
I can just imagine people (drunk other otherwise) sat in the pub after the game moaning that we've won, but the xG was crap!!

 

[WeAreTheWolvesII]

Said posters wont like you doing this but said posters are quite happy to dig other posters posts out on other topics at times!

Just a terrible situation to be in. Watching a brilliant opportunity slip by because of something we all saw coming a mile off.

The worst thing about it is that we didn't even have to do anything. If we'd have done nothing, and kept Sasa and Silva, we'd have been better off. They actively made us worse.

It was self sabotage.

 

[wolfslair]

I remember the pelters I got on here for saying we had the worst squad depth in the Premier League. Now Gaz is saying it's the entire English professional divisions.

You better believe I'll be petty enough to dig out those posters haha. Actually had people arguing with me that our squad was no worse than Man United's, Chelsea's, Fulham's, Forest's etc.

People have chewed a lot of us out for saying we didn’t have enough strength in depth….

Now GON is frustrated enough to say it, let’s see if the Jeff apologists are so quick to do so now Gary has said it publicly!!!!!!

 

[Norway Wolves]

Take a point, not brilliant but we never win at Burnley, Lemina was unlucky and RAN should've scored again.

Chiwome had a good game, Sa MOTD by a mile.

On a side note, I'm quite pleased we haven't got to play Burnley again this year both times the love in for Burnley (probably more so Kompany) has been unbearable spent a lot more than the other promoted teams and seems to avoid any sort of criticism from the media.

He is a young player that we all want to do well, but Chiwome didn’t have a good game.

 

[wolvesjoe]

I remember the pelters I got on here for saying we had the worst squad depth in the Premier League. Now Gaz is saying it's the entire English professional divisions.

You better believe I'll be petty enough to dig out those posters haha. Actually had people arguing with me that our squad was no worse than Man United's, Chelsea's, Fulham's, Forest's etc.

The yahoos who always support the board, no matter how stupid their policy might be, are in general not worth debating with, as they are
not open to rational discussion or acceptance of reality.

There are plenty of intelligent people to debate with, thankfully.

 

[brianm]

Can't you just say what you saw? Why do you need a bogus stat to explain it?
I can just imagine people (drunk other otherwise) sat in the pub after the game moaning that we've won, but the xG was crap!!

Of course the result is what matters, but using xG to do a gut check on quality of chances for each team is reasonably useful. Much moreso than possession, shots, shots on target, etc.

There are problems with it, but it is a metric with more correlation to how a game felt than others.

You could also just talk total ****ing nonsense about the game, which is also quite common. Probably get some people saying wolves should have shipped four goals, for instance, just because they remember a few chances for Burnley.

 

[Rhyl Wolf]

People have chewed a lot of us out for saying we didn’t have enough strength in depth….

Now GON is frustrated enough to say it, let’s see if the Jeff apologists are so quick to do so now Gary has said it publicly!!!!!!

I do hope this doesn't descend into a Gary/Hobbs against the club scenario. Sadly, there will only be one winner - those holding the purse strings. GON's frustration is tangible. One way or another, it's going to be an interesting summer down the Mol.

 

[WinchWolf]

I do hope this doesn't descend into a Gary/Hobbs against the club scenario. Sadly, there will only be one winner - those holding the purse strings. GON's frustration is tangible. One way or another, it's going to be an interesting summer down the Mol.

There'll be quite a few clubs watching with interest in case they need a new manager. GON has done a surprisingly (IMHO) amazing job, he won't be hanging around here for long.

 

[we love jez moxey]

Of course the result is what matters, but using xG to do a gut check on quality of chances for each team is reasonably useful. Much moreso than possession, shots, shots on target, etc.

There are problems with it, but it is a metric with more correlation to how a game felt than others.

You could also just talk total ****ing nonsense about the game, which is also quite common. Probably get some people on her saying wolves should have shipped four goals, for instance, just because they remember a few chances for Burnley.

Is xG generated by AI or statisticians grading chances based on set metrics?
I genuinely don't know.
I'm massively into stats, just this one I struggle with.

 

[Axle]

People have chewed a lot of us out for saying we didn’t have enough strength in depth….

Now GON is frustrated enough to say it, let’s see if the Jeff apologists are so quick to do so now Gary has said it publicly!!!!!!

This is true. Plenty of people on here say ‘can’t you see this is a tactic of the club,’

OK. Yet the tactic is wrong and has been for probably three seasons now

 

[wolfslair]

Of course the result is what matters, but using xG to do a gut check on quality of chances for each team is reasonably useful. Much moreso than possession, shots, shots on target, etc.

There are problems with it, but it is a metric with more correlation to how a game felt than others.

You could also just talk total ****ing nonsense about the game, which is also quite common.

Xg isn’t a stat to hang your hat on to judge a performance on……,

Pass %age
Passes in the final third
Pass %age in final third
Successful dribbles

Are all great indicators of how well you played.

Xg can be 1.0 from only having one shot……. It is a very flawed metric to judge a performance.

So sorry mate, but it isn’t a deciding factor on if you played well…….

You could play total dog ****, 60% pass accuracy, give away 24 shots on goal, create only one 1v1 and have an xg of one …….

 

[wolfslair]

I do hope this doesn't descend into a Gary/Hobbs against the club scenario. Sadly, there will only be one winner - those holding the purse strings. GON's frustration is tangible. One way or another, it's going to be an interesting summer down the Mol.

Hobbs has ALOT of admirers and the sharks will smell blood in the water based on that……

We lose Hobbs, the Jeff has ****ed up on a par with spending £35m on a generational talent we could have had for less than £9m the summer before…….

 

[brianm]

Is xG generated by AI or statisticians grading chances based on set metrics?
I genuinely don't know.
I'm massively into stats, just this one I struggle with.

It's people scoring chances based on some criteria including location of the shot/action, whether they were under pressure, etc.

For instance, a penalty is 0.79.

 

[we love jez moxey]

It's people scoring chances based on some criteria including location of the shot/action, whether they were under pressure, etc.

For instance, a penalty is 0.79.

So you're basing your opinion on how a game (that you actually saw!!) went on how someone else judged how good your opportunities were?

It makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

[arctic rime]

Good point

 

[brianm]

Xg isn’t a stat to hang your hat on to judge a performance on……,

Pass %age
Passes in the final third
Pass %age in final third
Successful dribbles

Are all great indicators of how well you played.

Xg can be 1.0 from only having one shot……. It is a very flawed metric to judge a performance.

So sorry mate, but it isn’t a deciding factor on if you played well…….

You could play total dog ****, 60% pass accuracy, give away 24 shots on goal, create only one 1v1 and have an xg of one …….

It's definitely flawed. Some cases where it doesn't tell the story are where a team scores early off a less than stellar chance and then the other side racks up a decent xG number despite never being that close to scoring. In general, a team will get a decent xG if they are chasing a game.

I also think it's total nonsense to use it over a season like Poch recently where he said the advanced stats suggest they should be fourth.

However, on a game to game it's not worthless, imo. One thing it does well is account for a good counter-attacking team who generate a few very high percentage chances and concede a lot of lower percentage chances, ending up in a fairly even game.

 

[brianm]

So you're basing your opinion on how a game (that you actually saw!!) went on how someone else judged how good your opportunities were?

It makes absolutely no sense to me.

No?

It felt a pretty even game to me. The stats back that up. That's about as much as I'd use it today.

If someone told me Wolves got battered today, I might also use it to defend the notion that's not true.

 

[wolfslair]

It's definitely flawed. Some cases where it doesn't tell the story are where a team scores early off a less than stellar chance and then the other side racks up a decent xG number despite never being that close to scoring. In general, a team will get a decent xG if they are chasing a game.

I also think it's total nonsense to use it over a season like Poch recently where he said the advanced stats suggest they should be fourth.

However, on a game to game it's not worthless, imo. One thing it does well is account for a good counter-attacking team who generate a few very high percentage chances and concede a lot of lower percentage chances, ending up in a fairly even game.

I agree with your last point, but XG has to be paired with stats for pass accuracy, dribbles/take ons and also ones relating to how a ball is progressed positively too.

 

[JadeWolf]

Hard fought point. Had some good chances to pinch it but Sa made some important saves at the other end. Burnley are a very poor side, we just weren’t quite at it enough to punish them.

 

[Pengwern]

Sa & Semedo were our best players alongside RAN. Toti, Lemina were OK & the rest meh. Ref not so good. RAN might have scored. Just got back.

 

[Adrian_Monk]

It isn't just O'Neil getting frustrated. Some of our senior players have a very different demeanor at the moment, the look of players who feel like they have done their bit but the club haven't done theirs and they're wondering what the point is. Performances are slipping, and who can blame them? Mentally and physically they've been run into the ground - and fans wonder why the likes of Boly and Moutinho didn't want to play and risk injury?! It goes both ways.

I can see a few getting on to their agents in the summer. Subterfuge and deceit might be fine in the CCP but it doesn't work at a top flight football club. Shi, Guo or whoever it is who's really running the club has spat in the face of the team spirit O'Neil and his team have cultivated this season.

 

[Incognito]

I still don't understand why Doherty played tonight. Even more unfathomable is how RAN missed another sitter. However, he really has been the one shining lights these past few weeks. Not only sublime on the ball but tons of heart and work rate. He definitely has stood up to be counted when the going has got tough, with all the injuries. Same unfortunately cannot be said for Sarabia and, less so, Lemina, who was better today, back in in usual midfield position and could have scored, but was still below par. Massive to have Cunha back. Hopefully the other notable absentees return very soon. Some of the stick for Chiwome undeserved. Twice, he should have been played a pass, which may have seen him score. Once in the first half, Sarabia, and then RAN second half. He also worked his socks off. Despite all the injuries, I do feel GON could pick a better starting XI, Doc in there today, a case in point.

 

[QB Wolf]

It doesn't read like a criticism of the club to me, just a statement of the facts, we needed more players we couldn't afford them, all these people basking in their told you so glory, keep banging the same drum, like they were the only ones that knew, but everyone knew it's not a massive secret, why will GON get in trouble, Shi and Guo Guangchang, will be more aware of the situation and the constraints the club had in January than anyone.

Sa man of the match.

 

[brianm]

I still don't understand why Doherty played tonight. Even more unfathomable is how RAN missed another sitter. However, he really has been the one shining lights these past few weeks. Not only sublime on the ball but tons of heart and work rate. He definitely has stood up to be counted when the going has got tough, with all the injuries. Same unfortunately cannot be said for Sarabia and, less so, Lemina, who was better today, back in in usual midfield position and could have scored, but was still below par. Massive to have Cunha back. Hopefully the other notable absentees return very soon. Some of the stick for Chiwome undeserved. Twice, he should have been played a pass, which may have seen him score. Once in the first half, Sarabia, and then RAN second half. He also worked his socks off. Despite all the injuries, I do feel GON could pick a better starting XI, Doc in there today, a case in point.

Doc in the box has scored goals for the team before. It's not totally insane to think maybe he can sneak one off a bit of chaos from a set piece or something.

He was also pretty fresh.

 

[Ian]

That’s Gaz’s letter of resignation then.

Wonder who comes in next?

Rob Edward’s

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

The lads are giving it everything.
We know the issues with the squad.
Squad depth has probably caused the injuries as well as making it impossible to cope with them.

No complaints from me though, they did their best, tiredness caused a lack of quality at times and Burnley are much better than they're getting credit for, much improved.

 

[JadeWolf]

It doesn't read like a criticism of the club to me, just a statement of the facts, we needed more players we couldn't afford them, all these people basking in their told you so glory, keep banging the same drum, like they were the only ones that knew, but everyone knew it's not a massive secret, why will GON get in trouble, Shi and Guo Guangchang, will be more aware of the situation and the constraints the club had in January than anyone.

Sa man of the match.

Far too sensible, and you know it!

 

[Mugwump]

He's bang on.

Shi and FOSUN have been amateurish the last few seasons.

While he is spot on, this isn't another lopetegui situation. He knew what he was getting into when he got the job so while I understand his frustration, he isnt really in a position to complain about it because he knew from day one we had very little money to spend.

We apparently have more room to move in the summer, so if we don't back him a bit more then he should just walk away if he thinks he can do better elsewhere. I would.

 

[Mugwump]

I remember the pelters I got on here for saying we had the worst squad depth in the Premier League. Now Gaz is saying it's the entire English professional divisions.

You better believe I'll be petty enough to dig out those posters haha. Actually had people arguing with me that our squad was no worse than Man United's, Chelsea's, Fulham's, Forest's etc.

I don't think our depth is that poor apart from in the forwards. Playing 3 up front basically like we do you need at least 5 premier league players to play the way we do or you get the injuries like we have got.

 

[Contrarian]

Xg isn’t a stat to hang your hat on to judge a performance on……,

Pass %age
Passes in the final third
Pass %age in final third
Successful dribbles

Are all great indicators of how well you played.

Xg can be 1.0 from only having one shot……. It is a very flawed metric to judge a performance.

So sorry mate, but it isn’t a deciding factor on if you played well…….

You could play total dog ****, 60% pass accuracy, give away 24 shots on goal, create only one 1v1 and have an xg of one …….

No more flawed than any of those other stats you list. For example, Adama was sometimes top of the succesful dribbles chart for all of Europes top leagues. Wouldn't have been in the top 50 most valued attackers though. And I've heard coaches say that "most tackles" for a defender is not a good stat, because the best defenders can neutralise opponents by good positioning and so on. Pass % and possession tend to be wastes of time, literally.

You could say that results and hence position is the only stat that matters. However, there are even those who don't accept that we are the 10th best club in England, with 10 worse than us in this league! Apparently , we are so much worse run than many clubs beneath us.

 

[Monketron]

Is xG generated by AI or statisticians grading chances based on set metrics?
I genuinely don't know.
I'm massively into stats, just this one I struggle with.

There are databases which log every shot ever taken (not ever, but from like the last 6-7 years, still talking millions of data points), and the location / outcome of that shot (did it score or not). When someone has a shot from the same place it will check the database of all shots from that same location and check the historical chances of a goal having been scored from shots at that exact same location. The shot is given a 1% (0.01) to 100% (1.0) xG chance of a goal depending on what the database says.

Early xG only really did that and and while it was a hell of a lot better than just looking at shots on target (which doesn't distinguish between shots from 40 yards away or shots from 4 yards away) it still didn't really give any meaningful data as there's so many other factors that can determine how good, statistically, the chance you just created was.

Nowadays the xG model is far more complicated and depending on the database can hold information like: was it the players stronger or weaker foot, are there players in the way of the shot when it was taken, did the player have time on the shot or was it a reaction shot, was the keeper in a good place, etc. Which can all factor into how 'good' that chance was and assign it the right xG value. These sort of models are so big and complex they can only be run by AI now. The equations used are constantly updated too.

Different companies use different models which is why 2 different sites can sometimes show slightly different xG's for the same match.

 

[JadeWolf]

I don't think our depth is that poor apart from in the forwards. Playing 3 up front basically like we do you need at least 5 premier league players to play the way we do or you get the injuries like we have got.

Effectively we have 9 PL forwards (Cunha, Hwang, Neto, Bellegarde, Sarabia, Guedes, Podence, Fabio, Sasa). For a variety of reasons, some you can blame the club and some not, only one of those was available to start today.

 

[CelebrityWolf]

Can't you just say what you saw? Why do you need a bogus stat to explain it?
I can just imagine people (drunk other otherwise) sat in the pub after the game moaning that we've won, but the xG was crap!!

Why the **** does it matter?? People can look at it whatever way they want.

 

[we love jez moxey]

Why the **** does it matter?? People can look at it whatever way they want.

Just makes me cringe that's all.

 

[WeAreTheWolvesII]

Effectively we have 9 PL forwards (Cunha, Hwang, Neto, Bellegarde, Sarabia, Guedes, Podence, Fabio, Sasa). For a variety of reasons, some you can blame the club and some not, only one of those was available to start today.

If we did ‘have’ those forwards then nobody would be moaning as our front three would’ve been Podence, Silva and Sarabia - probably enough to beat Burnley.

We actually have five forwards, and that’s being generous allowing Bellegarde to be classed as a forward when he’s a midfielder in the eyes of some. Either way, not enough.

Gary O’Neil made his position clear on the situation tonight.

If you think he is wrong, fair enough.

Worst squad depth in the 92 remember, according to our manager.

 

[VancouverWolf]

It doesn't read like a criticism of the club to me, just a statement of the facts, we needed more players we couldn't afford them, all these people basking in their told you so glory, keep banging the same drum, like they were the only ones that knew, but everyone knew it's not a massive secret, why will GON get in trouble, Shi and Guo Guangchang, will be more aware of the situation and the constraints the club had in January than anyone.

Sa man of the match.

Yes to this.

 

[sedgwolf1980]

Throw in Sasa and Silva, even Podence, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with our squad depth. That’s not even including Guedes either.

That list alone also shows that, by and large, investment hasn’t been the issue either.

The problem is a feast and famine attitude, that has stemmed from poor management at the top. Shi is extremely lucky Lopetegui dug him out the **** last season and even luckier GON done the same this.

 

[SA Wolf]

We all know that the squad depth, especially in the forward areas is the problem. The players are giving everything, but GON is either shoe-horning players into the side (for all his merits, RAN doesn't have the composure to play up front) or playing kids who are not ready (Chiwome, Fraser etc...). Couple that with senior players below their bests (Lemina and Sarabia) and we have the sort of disappointing performance that we saw against Cov, Villa and last night.
Without Sa and this is another match where the fans question whether Wolves can raise their game against the also-rans ala Burnley in the past and Huddersfield, Sheff Utd etc.... He produced some magnificent saves which kept us in the game. Semedo had a decent game overall, but the brain-fades that he seemed to have eliminated from his game, returned in big style for the Burnley goal.
Sarabia was anonymous for the most part, but crossed for RAN to score and Traore was abysmal when he came on.
GON said that the players are knackered and he pushed for reinforcements in January. Well, we don't have reinforcements and with 8 matches still to play, this bunch need to dig into reserves to prevent the season ending on 42 points.
The good news is that Hwang and Dawson are close to a return and with seeing Cunha back last night; there is some light. However, having a Premier League squad, so short of quality away from the first 11 is embarrassing and is down to Fosun's mismanagement. This must be remedied in the summer, otherwise expect more of these performances and a relegation fight next season.

 

[Oh When the Wolves]

Terrible.

Too slow passing. Kilman passing horrific. Sarabia absolutely shocking , and a total lack of desire to beat the second worst team in the league

What a waste this season looks like being due to fosun, but GON must take responsibly for our dire tactics last night