Big Six Bias?

[Lycaon]

Big Six Bias, is it fact or fiction?
Often read on here and other fan forums that the top teams have an unnatural advantage when it comes to them getting the rub of the green against lesser rivals, is there really an aspect of the game which is that corrupt?
Or, is it simply a case that their possession stats, shots to goal ratio etc is that more greater hence a better chance of decisions going their way due to the law of averages?
Personally, I don’t know, but Wolves have had a pretty decent track record against these so called bigger teams over the last few years both home and away.

 

[Flump]

Don't know, but would be reasonably simple to check mathematically, compare the number of penalties received by an unfashionable but very good team (Leicester this season) against the number of a similarly performing "big 6" team, (say Man Utd & Chelsea this year), then do so for several more years.

This year the pens are Leicester 10, Man Utd 9, Chelsea 9.

However, you'd need to look at other normal seasons too - I did see a piece of research saying that the main difference in performance from the lack of fans and reduction in home bias, is that you no longer get favourable treatment from refs when playing at empty home grounds.

 

[Fenrir_]

Don't know, but would be reasonably simple to check mathematically, compare the number of penalties received by an unfashionable but very good team (Leicester this season) against the number of a similarly performing "big 6" team, (say Man Utd & Chelsea this year), then do so for several more years.

This year the pens are Leicester 10, Man Utd 9, Chelsea 9.

However, you'd need to look at other normal seasons too - I did see a piece of research saying that the main difference in performance from the lack of fans and reduction in home bias, is that you no longer get favourable treatment from refs when playing at empty home grounds.

Think you'd also need to compare when in the season things happen. Give a dodgy penalty against Man U in an early game and they still have plenty of time to get themselves into their 'rightful' place. If they're struggling to make top four or top six though with five games left, do they seem to get more help then? (With other matches as well as their own)

 

[SA Wolf]

Fiction - been investigated several times and never proven. Easy excuse for the also-rans to use when not able to close the gap.

 

[Contrarian]

Hard to prove objectively. But over the decades, there is definitely a broad "big club" bias in general. Not every match, not every season, but it is there. And it is not really deliberate, just the nature of things. It's just safer to give a controversial *for* , say Liverpool at Anfield than it is *against* Liverpool at Anfield.

It's the same everywhere. Watching Bundesliga, I don't even need to figure out the teams based on their colours. Within minutes, a player on one side falls over nothing and gets a free kick, meanwhile a far worse crunching tackle with follow through on the other side and the ref waves "play on". It's Bayern who get the soft free kick and the opponents who dont. La Liga is even worse. Real and Barca get every 50/50. Always have done.

It also applies through the leagues. If we were playing a non-league club, the ref will think a lot harder before giving a decision against us, than for us. I've heard refs even admit, many decisions in a game a difficult in real time. So they just assume the "better player" was fouled. Which means Man U players get an advantage v Us. And Brighton players v Swindon and so on.

Liverpool once did go something like a decade conceding only 1 penalty at Anfield, I believe. Again, the extreme number Man Utd got and so on. Funny how the same clubs crop up again and again!

It could be tested objectively and I would love to see this study done. With video technology it is easy to change kit colours and anonyise players. They could get a load of clips of incidents from the last few years, with the teams and players anonymised so the refs don't know who they are. Then ask them what decision they would give. I don't think they would do this because they know the result and it would be embarrasing. For a start, a lot of decisions would be split almost randomly as the laws are so open to subjectivity in the first place. But mainly, a lot of decisions that went for the big clubs in real life, would go against them if the refs didn't know who they were watching.

 

[Contrarian]

Fiction - been investigated several times and never proven. Easy excuse for the also-rans to use when not able to close the gap.

Saw a mini-documentary on Youtube that showed studies had pretty much proven that referees gave a home advantage. When crowds were in, of course.

 

[Oliwolf44]

Its a convenient excuse. If you dont get the ball in the box you dont win penalties. People talk about Wolves being more 'professional', which i hate by the way (just encouraging more diving), but Wolves never get men in the box.
The top teams tend to play on the front foot rather than counter attack. You are always getting more penalties for consistently applying pressure inside the penalty area.

 

[bod101]

have they been punished for the super league saga yet?

 

[Oliwolf44]

What i would argue, ties back in to this media created big 6. If the Soucek red card vs Fulham (elbow given by Mike Dean), is for a big 6 side that isnt given. Purely down to media coverage, every slight penalty for/against the big 6 is analysed to death and there is a big media storm because they know the controversy brings eyeballs consuming the media.
This added coverage brings pressure to referees and so on, so there is a knock on effect. I thing this is the biggest effect, so I would say a referee does not consciously favour the big 6, but the amount of pressure on them maybe draws them into making certain decisions.

 

[Oliwolf44]

have they been punished for the super league saga yet?

I get the feeling everyone is holding their breath in anticipation. However i believe punishment to be unlikely, despite it being most certainly deserved

 

[SA Wolf]

Saw a mini-documentary on Youtube that showed studies had pretty much proven that referees gave a home advantage. When crowds were in, of course.

This is not 'Big 6 bias', though.

 

[Super Ted]

have they been punished for the super league saga yet?

Punished? Never.

They will be lorded for changing their mind.

(I know your post was sarcastic )

 

[Lycaon]

Punished? Never.

They will be lorded for changing their mind.

(I know your post was sarcastic )

Tend to agree, maybe some punitive action might be taken once the dust has settled.

Probably more surprising though is the fact that there’s no statements coming out from the “Faithful Fourteen” keeping up the pressure and pushing for sanctions recently?

 

[Axle]

have they been punished for the super league saga yet?

Yeah that’s gone very quiet this week.

A lot of expert image management going on there l think.

 

[Deleted member 8455jwf]

Posted this in VAR thread but no big 6 bias with regards to that.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387345521380048897