Why is Neves so undervalued?

[Werewolf of Wombourne]

I can't get my head around why Ruben is so undervalued in the football world. Most on here I reckon think we can get £40m tops for him and I've even seen some estimates of £25-30m. Yet you look at comparable players and they are valued much higher. For example

Mason Mount - valued at 65m Euro's with one year left on his contract. Scored 3 and had 2 assists this season. only started 51% of games for Chelsea but there's going to be a bidding war and he's likely to go for over £60m
Declan Rice - valued at 80m Euro's with one year left on his contract. 4 goals and 2 assists this season. touted as going for closer to £100m
Moises Caicedo - valued at 55m Euro's. 4 years left on his contract but only goal and 1 assist this season. Arsenal were willing to pay £70m last season

Ruben Neves - valued at 40m Euro's. Same length of contract as Mount and Rice. 6 goals and 1 assist this season. Touted by the press as going for £35m maybe. yet I would state with confidence that Neves is better than all 3 of the above

 

[Flump]

West Ham have a contract extension clause for Rice, so it's not really 1 year even though everyone keeps making that comparison.

What it comes down to, is how much is that player worth for 1 year? If a club can get him for free in a year, why would they pay £50m for that 1 extra year?

I.e. if we sold Neves, how much would you be happy for Wolves to pay as a fee to loan him back for 1 year? £10m? More?

 

[Minimalist]

Yeah, I’ve been surprised we haven’t had a big big bid for him over the last 3 seasons. I’d imagine we’d have sold for £60m at any point in the past. Peanuts for the top clubs.

 

[Werewolf of Wombourne]

West Ham have a contract extension clause for Rice, so it's not really 1 year even though everyone keeps making that comparison.

What it comes down to, is how much is that player worth for 1 year? If a club can get him for free in a year, why would they pay £50m for that 1 extra year?

I.e. if we sold Neves, how much would you be happy for Wolves to pay as a fee to loan him back for 1 year? £10m? More?

But you could say that about Mount and that isn't going to stop him from going for a big fee this summer

 

[Black Coffee]

English Tax on the players mentioned but the value of 40-45M is about right for Ruben in his situation.

The reality is we know how great Ruben is but most Don't nor has bigger name value in the PL than Rice or Mount. Mount is from the Chelsea academy and a England International as is Rice but he is also a England regular. Outside Wolves fans there is little noise about Ruben compared to the other two.

It might not be 'fair' I suppose but it's the reality of the situation.

 

[Flump]

But you could say that about Mount and that isn't going to stop him from going for a big fee this summer

Firstly, he hasn't gone for a big fee yet, so it's just paper talk at the moment.

But also, there's obviously the English premium with him, and (if you believe the gossip columns) multiple big CL clubs are interested in him - you've said yourself there could be a bidding war, which is answering your own question.

 

[Alex Rae The Substitute]

I took a MUFC supporting mate on Saturday who was raving about Neves before and after the game saying he really hopes the tenuous links to them signing him are true.

But lots of other mates seem to be a bit on the fence about him that I speak to. Think it comes down to the fact he’s a deep lying midfielder who does actually do a lot of stuff that goes unnoticed.

What I do hear a lot is the cliched “he only scores long-range goals”… which hasn’t really been the case for some time. So perhaps neutral fans don’t really know what he’s about.

Either way, he is a god-like figure for me, I will be gutted when he goes. Hope he’s treated better than Jota should he ever return in a different shirt.

 

[Werewolf of Wombourne]

Firstly, he hasn't gone for a big fee yet, so it's just paper talk at the moment.

But also, there's obviously the English premium with him, and (if you believe the gossip columns) multiple big CL clubs are interested in him - you've said yourself there could be a bidding war, which is answering your own question.

My question is less about why there is a bidding war for Mount. It's more why there hasn't ever been for Ruben

 

[Halesowen wwfc]

English tax,
Commercial benefits,
Not a regular in his national team,
Perception that the style of play he dictates is not a system other teams want to deploy (could argue that would be why many of our players are unlikely to secure a big money move away from us),
One year left on contract, can sign up in jan on a pre agreement for free,

In no particular order.

 

[SA Wolf]

Mount is an attacking midfielder, Neves defensive. Attackers are far more valuable as we've seen ourselves this season. Also has an 'English premium'.
Wet Sham have an option on Rice, so not a direct contract comparison. Also English and imo a better all-round player than Neves.
Caicedo is a more like for like comparison, but younger than Neves. Not sure about his contract length at Brighton!

 

[reanswolf]

Just a slight lack of mobility perhaps, though he very very rarely gets caught in possession.

It’s weird, I adore him so much I want him to get his dream Barcelona move. He deserves only the very best.

 

[steve vena]

But you could say that about Mount and that isn't going to stop him from going for a big fee this summer

I think Mount is very average.

 

[SakosRightFoot]

Just a slight lack of mobility perhaps, though he very very rarely gets caught in possession.

It’s weird, I adore him so much I want him to get his dream Barcelona move. He deserves only the very best.

Yep I think this is it. He's got unreal passing range, comfortable on the ball, his fitness does seem to have improved but if you look at the tactics of the big teams where does he fit? I love him but he's not Rodri level at City, he's probably a touch too slow in possession for Liverpool and not the destructor of Fabinho. Is he better than Eriksen or Casemiro, Partey or Xhaka? Maybe the latter but Arsenal seem to want Caicedo as a more energetic option so where does he go?

 

[Black Country Wanderer]

Mount and Rice both home grown premiums on them, plus they are not seen as defensive midfielders
Neves really only wants Barca and pretty much everyone knows this
He hasnt had the greatest season either in comparison to past ones
We tend to look at him as maybe a better player than others see ,as good as he is for us maybe hes not such a good fit with the top table

 

[Werewolf of Wombourne]

Yep I think this is it. He's got unreal passing range, comfortable on the ball, his fitness does seem to have improved but if you look at the tactics of the big teams where does he fit? I love him but he's not Rodri level at City, he's probably a touch too slow in possession for Liverpool and not the destructor of Fabinho. Is he better than Eriksen or Casemiro, Partey or Xhaka? Maybe the latter but Arsenal seem to want Caicedo as a more energetic option so where does he go?

But is the perception of him being slow in possession due to us moving away from the quick counter we played under Nuno? When Jota, Traore and Raul were in their pomp together Neves could spring the defence really quickly with one pass without dwelling on the ball or waiting.

 

[SakosRightFoot]

But is the perception of him being slow in possession due to us moving away from the quick counter we played under Nuno? When Jota, Traore and Raul were in their pomp together Neves could spring the defence really quickly with one pass without dwelling on the ball or waiting.

Maybe. I'm guessing at the top level of scouting its probably along the lines of he drops deep to get posession, that was why we switched to 3-5-2 halfway through the first season because Neves couldn't get on the ball in a 2 man midfield. So whilst he's great with ball at feet looking downfield, i'm supposing the issue is the areas hes effective. Like I say I love him, and his defensive stats are actually pretty good its a mystery why hes not more highly sought after

 

[Superted]

I'm not sure it's much to do with his percieved ability, moreso that other clubs know we signed him for £16m 6 years ago, with a new contract in between so with 1 year left he's only worth a couple of million to us in accounting terms.

Something I'd not considered before as to why players entering the last year of their contracts often go for cut price. There's an element of risk in that you wouldn't ideally want them to walk away without receiving a fee so there's a bit of "desperation" (for want of a better word), but I also think it's because the buying clubs know that the selling club can accept a lower fee and still retain a similar or better profit margin.

If you have a player signed for £40m on a 4-year deal, after 2 years his book value is £20m and his amortisation for that year is another £10m, you sell him on for £40m and you're +£30m for that year (£20m profit on trading plus no additional amortisation).

If you sell him the following year for £35m, his book value is £10m and you have the final £10m amortisation cost then you're +£35m for that year (£25m profit on trading plus no additional amortisation). Lower fee but greater net positive in the accounts.

If we'd signed Neves for £30m-£40m a couple of years ago then I'd be very unhappy to be getting less than £50m but as it is, I think we'd be very lucky to get much more than £40m, which still represents a healthy profit for us this year, when other clubs will be aware of his worth to us in financial terms.

 

[Alex Rae The Substitute]

As much as I rate the bloke and want to keep him, I think we’ll likely only get circa £25-30m for him this summer tops.

I sincerely hope the mad talk of a swap deal for some Barca cast offs isn’t true either.

 

[Rauls Headband]

I took a MUFC supporting mate on Saturday who was raving about Neves before and after the game saying he really hopes the tenuous links to them signing him are true.

But lots of other mates seem to be a bit on the fence about him that I speak to. Think it comes down to the fact he’s a deep lying midfielder who does actually do a lot of stuff that goes unnoticed.

What I do hear a lot is the cliched “he only scores long-range goals”… which hasn’t really been the case for some time. So perhaps neutral fans don’t really know what he’s about.

Either way, he is a god-like figure for me, I will be gutted when he goes. Hope he’s treated better than Jota should he ever return in a different shirt.

You're right, he hasn't scored at all for a while (2 since December?) never mind long range goals!

Joking aside.

We all know the class he's brought the team as a defensive midfielder, and maybe that's part of the issue. The current game tends to want midfielders to be more mobile, which isn't Neves strongest point.

Thats said when he has played much higher (which he's not often been able to do when paired with Mouthino), and closer to our front players, he is superb, but we just haven't played him that way very often either, I feel sometimes his defensive abilities have been used to paper over and protect our back line frailties.

All that has possibly made him overlooked and maybe undervalued

 

[DJLWolf]

I think the top clubs think he isn't mobile enough to be a very top player and despite me absolutely loving the bloke like all Wolves fans, they may have a point.

I've always thought neves would fit like a glove in Italy so it's a shame they have no money!

20 years ago an AC Milan or a Juventus would have paid a fortune for him.

 

[JohnB]

Mainly because Wolves don’t have the exposure of London/Top 6 clubs (Pahlinha now worth loads due to being at Fulham).

Coupled with one year left, not a goalscorer (although still 5-6 goals per season), not big and pacey (fitness stamina are fine it is that pure physicality and acceleration he is lacking) and due to this doesn’t fit in Top 6 sides perfectly where they are looking for a single person to break-up attacks and pass to creative players not be a deep lying playmaker.

On the positive it has meant he’s stayed 1-2 years longer than expected and still a chance over another year (unless Barca take him on loan and promise us a payment in the future with no guarantees….).

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

Teams don’t want to pay Wolves money for some reason Neves is worth probably near 70m awesome all round midfielder to get 40m is thanks for service good luck pittance to high end clubs who seem to overlook him bizarre much better than Fred, Xhaka, Gallagher, Henderson who currently play bigger clubs

Absolute bargain for wherever he ends up

 

[Flea]

Neves is not undervalued.
The market sets the value,and it never lies at any given point.
Problem is that Wolves fans has a tendency to overvalue Ruben Neves.
A good player no doubt.
The second coming of Pirlo?
I don´t think so.

 

[glorybox]

Neves is not undervalued.
The market sets the value,and it never lies at any given point.
Problem is that Wolves fans has a tendency to overvalue Ruben Neves.
A good player no doubt.
The second coming of Pirlo?
I don´t think so.

Cue Ruben moving to a Super League 6 team and getting creamed over weekly by commentators. With better plyers around him and more options in front of him he will be better than you ever imagined.

 

[VancouverWolf]

I guess the bottom line answer to the OP‘s question is that maybe other clubs just don’t value him as we do……we’re biased.

Even if he was free, how many PL clubs would make him their automatic No. 1 midfielder?.

 

[KBWWFC]

1 year left on contract.

Doesn't score goals.

No team is splashing silly money on a defensive midfielder. They never have, they never will.

 

[Dan G WWFC]

Defensive midfielder, 1 year left on his deal and none home grown. It's really not that complicated.

Also, he's a top player and should be at a top club but he's not going to star for them.

 

[Ponty]

Rice is a far more dynamic player. He breaks up play and can carry the ball really well. He’s never going to be a big scorer or assist goals directly in much the same way Rodri doesn’t for City. His passing may not be as good as Neves but his impact on games is regularly more significant. As for Mount, like everyone at Chelsea he had a poor season, but he has proved he can score regularly at a high level for both Chelsea and England which makes a player extremely valuable. If you can’t see that I’m afraid you need to take off the gold blinkers.

 

[chignalwolf]

probably one of the top players we have had for decades in his position, BUT while he was suspended we looked a really well balance side
without him, might just be a coincidence but it did show, personally i think if these Chinese owners had kept to there forecast and investment in the Club, Stadium and squad he would have been here for years, we could / should be where Newcastle are now,
just another great new dawn gone,

 

[waveney wolf]

As good as he looks at wolves , he maybe a big fish in a small pond ....he didn't shine in the world cup , and in a bigger team ,he may only be an average player...and not blessed with pace.

 

[The Wolf In The North]

The trouble is, Neves' current value is basically whatever Barcelona say it is. Because he's made it clear that's where he wants to go. Newcastle could bid £100m on the 1st June, Neves could refuse to agree terms. Barca know this, and know we prefer a quick sale, so will bid low and feign disinterest. We're pretty screwed on this one, as we either keep a player who wants to be elsewhere for a year and get no money for him (and pay his wages) or we sell him for £20-30m lower than he's realistically worth just to get some cash in the account, and even that might not happen until August. There's going to be no miracle sale. In fact, if Barca say "£15m and done deal now" in June it would be sickening but might be worth it overall, rather than wait up to two months for £5-£10m more that might not even come.

 

[wwbug]

I think Mount is very average.

I could see Mount “disappearing” in another team .
Rice if far more positive and influential.
I think Neves has suffered from being in a relatively dull team , with low attacking options.

 

[lobodelsur]

The market sets the value,and it never lies at any given point.

There is so much evidence that disproves that point - and I'm not talking exclusively about football here.

 

[OLDGOLD]

Neves is not undervalued.
The market sets the value,and it never lies at any given point.
Problem is that Wolves fans has a tendency to overvalue Ruben Neves.
A good player no doubt.
The second coming of Pirlo?
I don´t think so.

Thanks for that. Glad I am not the only one. I agree with that except the 2nd sentence .

 

[WickedWolfie]

Neves is not undervalued.
The market sets the value,and it never lies at any given point.
Problem is that Wolves fans has a tendency to overvalue Ruben Neves.
A good player no doubt.
The second coming of Pirlo?
I don´t think so.

The same rubbish was said about Jota....

 

[lobodelsur]

No team is splashing silly money on a defensive midfielder. They never have, they never will.

Really ? Rodri 80 m euros; Kalvin Phillips 60 m euros - and both at the same club.

 

[glorybox]

There is so much evidence that disproves that point - and I'm not talking exclusively about football here.

Assumed Andy Carroll was in your mind somewhere

 

[Sussex Wolf]

West Ham have a contract extension clause for Rice, so it's not really 1 year even though everyone keeps making that comparison.

What it comes down to, is how much is that player worth for 1 year? If a club can get him for free in a year, why would they pay £50m for that 1 extra year?

I.e. if we sold Neves, how much would you be happy for Wolves to pay as a fee to loan him back for 1 year? £10m? More?

While I understand the logic, it’s not really that simple in reality. Some examples of why it can be more complicated…

If a club needs the player for the coming season, then waiting for a year may cost them more. eg if at risk of PL relegation

If multiple clubs are already interested in the same player, then waiting 12 months may mean never signing the player.

A coach may make signing a particular player they admire a red line, forcing the club to act sooner rather than later.

The player may sign a significant contract extension in the absence of a move, pushing up his value further.

Before the 12 months passes, another club may develop an urgent need to buy a player of that profile due to injury or sale, creating competition where it doesn’t currently exist.

etc…

I’m not saying Neves ticks any or all of those boxes, but they illustrate why waiting 12 months or paying only what you’d pay for a 12 month loan, may significantly under value a player. Fundamentally you could apply your logic to Rice and say why wouldn’t a club just wait 12-18 months to sign him on the cheap?

 

[Madmalc]

Ever since his fellow midfielder from Portugal joined us, he has realised that the key to a long footballing career doesn't rest on beating yourself up and moving very quickly.
I'm not knocking him here, the passes he makes are off the scale, the best we've ever seen.
However, to really catch the eye you have to put yourself about.
According to another thread he's become more mobile and covered more ground per match in the last two seasons.
Apparently that's made him more appealing to potential buyers.
Of course we've always known we've been lucky to have such a brilliant player in the Old Gold.
It's what you do with the ball that matters.

 

[Deleted member (smith)]

Valuing a player may not be an exact science but depend on multiple factors.

The value may depend on his quality , his age and the needs of the purchasing team, the length of his contract and most importantly his salary demands, and his resale value during the contract.

A Player whose salary reflects his full value has no transfer value but that doesn’t mean he is a bad player…And a player with a high transfer value means he is underpaid.? If neves goes on a four year contract for 40 million doesn’t that mean you could pay him 40 million more over the contract if he is already with you or if you could get him on a free.