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Update on Fosun's financial position

MasWolf

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All the facts and quotes are drawn from the four articles/reports linked at the bottom of this post:

"Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Fosun International Limited (HKG:656) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt A Problem?​

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Fosun International

What Is Fosun International's Debt?​

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Fosun International had debt of CN¥228.7b at the end of December 2022, a reduction from CN¥243.4b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥157.8b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥70.9b.
debt-equity-history-analysisSEHK:656 Debt to Equity History May 6th 2023

How Strong Is Fosun International's Balance Sheet?​

According to the last reported balance sheet, Fosun International had liabilities of CN¥372.4b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥251.1b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥157.8b as well as receivables valued at CN¥62.5b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥403.2b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥39.0b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Fosun International would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today."

My emphasis. So far Fosun have stayed afloat simply by selling assets, which allowed for a small reduction in overall debt, and allowed for their credit rating to be moved up to "stable" from "negative" in the three quarters preceding the last financial report in the spring of this year. Their plan is to further reduce overall debt, by paying off bond maturities through further asset sales. Both Thomas Cook, acquired only a few years ago, and Club Med are being actively touted for sale, with heavy weights Rothschild trying to find a buyer. According to the S&P report, Fosun will continue to look to sell assests and concentrate on so-called core businesses. What is core and what is peripheral in terms of Fosun's portfolio is difficult to establish, as they are a corporate entity that has spread into many diverse areas. And after all it wasnt so long ago that Jeff Shi was reassuring us that Wolves were a "legacy" project, that Fosun were wholly commited to.

Debt and a lack of easily saleable assets is not Fosun's only pressing problem, however. In the last year's financial report, Fosun's earnings before interest and tax, (EBIT) reportedly ran at a loss, which, of course, puts the debt mountain into a different perspective. A company making good annual profits is putting debt to good use in turning a profit and growing the company. But the opposite holds true.

Generally the financial press/industry view Fosun pessimistically, (what Simply Wall Street call an intense disaffinity for Fosun stock), and their share price is at a five year low. Fosun however predict a near 50% rise in earnings for the current financial year, and look to further sell assets to reduce debt.

Are Wolves one of those assets? From all the above recently revealed financial figures, such a sale certainly cannot be ruled out.

Here are the articles to have a look at:



https://news.sky.com/story/chinese-...ital-goods/hkg-656/fosun-international-shares
I'm a simpleton - is what you have written good news or bad news?
 

MasWolf

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If you want Fosun to continue owning Wolves and invest in the club, it’s terrible news. If you want Fosun to sell the club as quickly as possible, it’s good news. Fosun are in deep doo doo.
I'd prefer the latter for sure. However, the grass isn't always greener. If we got American owners, I'd really not like that. On the other hand, the Saudis are most welcome!
 

wolfslair

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How long before we see Fosun sell Wolves, and the usual farewell video with Guo sat down, dressed in his Wolves gear, saying how he will always be a Wolf… what utter *******s
“Wolves ay we….. one pack…… What other slogan did I forget?”

is what it will go like haha
 

Sussex Wolf

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I'd prefer the latter for sure. However, the grass isn't always greener. If we got American owners, I'd really not like that. On the other hand, the Saudis are most welcome!

It’s an interesting choice. Agree with @Wolf316 comment. While Saudis will throw money at the club without worrying about a financial return, there will always be the risk that they leave at short notice when they have a better opportunity, or that there is a geopolitical storm which gets in the way. American investors come in all shapes and sizes. Some are well financed and professional, some are funded by debt, and clueless. The former may be better long term than Saudis, the latter could be far worse than Fosun, even in their financially stricken times.
 

wolvesjoe

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I'm a simpleton - is what you have written good news or bad news?
I think Fosun's time is done is the basic takeaway from the latest news and analysis, which is what the articles quoted imply.

The problem is how to sell the club to new owners, who are capable of keeping Wolves in the PL, and with an outside chance of challenging for Europe or a cup. It is not at all clear that Fosun have the ability to wait around for the ideal buyer, given the pressures of debt servicing they are under.

It is, however, also important to remember that the new version of FFP/FS will make running a club easier in a financial sense. Allowed losses are limited now to £105m in the PL, and 60m Euros over any given 3 year period. There is also a cap on player wages and amortised transfer fees of 70%, (first fully in force in the 25/26 season). Again the financial burden on owners reduced.

In other words, it is going to be somewhat less of a gamble or risk to own a PL club in future.

For Wolves, the most important task, which should have been done years ago, is to expand the ground, and that will be the
real test of new owners in my view.
 

kentish wolf

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If Fosun hang on I can only see us struggling at best and relegated at worst.
The honeymoon is over and although they are not the Bhatti's.imho. it will tough times again.
New owners are a risk but what choice do us lifelong fans have?
I have seen unbelievably awful.Wolves teams in th 80s (Chorley)
I hope and prey that we don't return.,to those goddam terrible times!
 

oldgolded

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How long before we see Fosun sell Wolves, and the usual farewell video with Guo sat down, dressed in his Wolves gear, saying how he will always be a Wolf… what utter *******s
The modern game does make you very cynical.
 

Bacon Sandwich

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A few thoughts…

First of all congratulations to @wolvesjoe
If only the supposed ‘journalists’ who cover Wolves could do this amount of work. Alarming that the most in-depth reporting on the club’s owners is on a fan forum

Get rid of this idea that Wolves are a ‘prized asset’/’the jewel in the crown’ of Fosun. They have £38bn of debt. Selling Wolves for £380m is 1% of that. Last year Fosun sold its stake in Nanjing Iron and Steel for around £1.6bn

Fosun do not care about the long term value of Wolves. They don’t care if we are relegated. They need money NOW. If the bailiffs are banging on your door £100 now is far more use than £350 in 12 months’ time. That’s the position Fosun are in: bonds are maturing all the time. The need cash to make the repayments.

Get rid of the idea that they are astute businessmen (Wolves Fashion? Wolves Records?) They have built a house of cards on a sea of debt.

Don’t be surprised if the Chinese authorities arrest Guo one day. They have done it to businessmen with a far higher profile than Guo.

Get rid of the idea that the CCP won’t let Fosun fail. Evergrande has just filed for bankruptcy in the US. Xi Jinping’s buzzword now is ‘common prosperity’ not the success of companies like Fosun.

Don’t believe Fosun’s balance sheet. Do you believe Jeff Shi’s letter? So why do you believe Fosun’s accounts? Look at Carillion here. How many small businesses got shafted after doing business with them, based on the audit by KPMG (who were paid £29m for audit work by the company)

Too long? Can’t be ***** to read? Ten words.
However **** Fosun’s financial position appears to be, it’s ****ter
 

Urko

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1692884037879.png
Could be bull who knows
 

MasWolf

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I really do think thats a very odd way round.
Not really. From what I have seen over the past few years, Americans buy a football club to make money and don't want to invest. Saudis buy football clubs for soft power and making money from them isn't their objective. The Saudi owners pump money into their clubs, Americans do not.
 

AndyY

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Not really. From what I have seen over the past few years, Americans buy a football club to make money and don't want to invest. Saudis buy football clubs for soft power and making money from them isn't their objective. The Saudi owners pump money into their clubs, Americans do not.
Fine, I am not a fan of Saudi politics, and i do understand "realpolitik".
 

Flump

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Saudis buy football clubs for soft power and making money from them isn't their objective. The Saudi owners pump money into their clubs, Americans do not.

I think you mean the Saudi PIF buy clubs for soft power, rather than "Saudis".

PIF bought Newcastle to pump money in. They wouldn't want to, or likely even be allowed to, buy another PL club.

There are other people in Saudi Arabia who might buy a PL club, but they, obviously, might well do things differently and have different motivations.
 

MasWolf

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I think you mean the Saudi PIF buy clubs for soft power, rather than "Saudis".

PIF bought Newcastle to pump money in. They wouldn't want to, or likely even be allowed to, buy another PL club.

There are other people in Saudi Arabia who might buy a PL club, but they, obviously, might well do things differently and have different motivations.
Ah yes, perhaps I should be saying Middle Eastern investment instead of limiting to Saudi
 

WKFWolf

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All the facts and quotes are drawn from the four articles/reports linked at the bottom of this post:

"Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Fosun International Limited (HKG:656) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt A Problem?​

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Fosun International

What Is Fosun International's Debt?​

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Fosun International had debt of CN¥228.7b at the end of December 2022, a reduction from CN¥243.4b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥157.8b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥70.9b.
debt-equity-history-analysisSEHK:656 Debt to Equity History May 6th 2023

How Strong Is Fosun International's Balance Sheet?​

According to the last reported balance sheet, Fosun International had liabilities of CN¥372.4b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥251.1b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥157.8b as well as receivables valued at CN¥62.5b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥403.2b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥39.0b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Fosun International would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today."

My emphasis. So far Fosun have stayed afloat simply by selling assets, which allowed for a small reduction in overall debt, and allowed for their credit rating to be moved up to "stable" from "negative" in the three quarters preceding the last financial report in the spring of this year. Their plan is to further reduce overall debt, by paying off bond maturities through further asset sales. Both Thomas Cook, acquired only a few years ago, and Club Med are being actively touted for sale, with heavy weights Rothschild trying to find a buyer. According to the S&P report, Fosun will continue to look to sell assests and concentrate on so-called core businesses. What is core and what is peripheral in terms of Fosun's portfolio is difficult to establish, as they are a corporate entity that has spread into many diverse areas. And after all it wasnt so long ago that Jeff Shi was reassuring us that Wolves were a "legacy" project, that Fosun were wholly commited to.

Debt and a lack of easily saleable assets is not Fosun's only pressing problem, however. In the last year's financial report, Fosun's earnings before interest and tax, (EBIT) reportedly ran at a loss, which, of course, puts the debt mountain into a different perspective. A company making good annual profits is putting debt to good use in turning a profit and growing the company. But the opposite holds true.

Generally the financial press/industry view Fosun pessimistically, (what Simply Wall Street call an intense disaffinity for Fosun stock), and their share price is at a five year low. Fosun however predict a near 50% rise in earnings for the current financial year, and look to further sell assets to reduce debt.

Are Wolves one of those assets? From all the above recently revealed financial figures, such a sale certainly cannot be ruled out.

Here are the articles to have a look at:



https://news.sky.com/story/chinese-...ital-goods/hkg-656/fosun-international-shares
brilliant post mate, might be worth a short summary at the end for people who scan read posts
 

AndyY

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I'm not a fan of Saudi politics either, but my concern here is the club.
I dont think Wolves will be sold until the ManUre sale is complete, and then one of the losing parties there "may" look elsewhere.
 

Monk

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From a mate with no connection to the club.

Chinese whispers


I did post on another thread that my source had also heard whispers but nothing concrete about new owners so I wouldn't totally discount the above post out of hand - more than likely maybe nothing but then again may have something.
 
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Bankswolf The Third

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If these new owners cant afford the asking price how can they afford the club full stop?
Hope its bull
 
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If these new owners cant afford the asking price how can they afford the club full stop?
Hope its bull
Nobody’s said they CAN’T afford the price it maybe they didn’t want to pay the asking price. Personally I hope it’s true - this club are going nowhere with Fosun in charge so for me the sooner they’re gone the better #FosunOut
 

wolvesjoe

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Fosun need cash, which has been a factor on the scott transfer and now in the nunes deal. It's not unusual for highly stressed companies.
 

YouGottaRaulWithIt

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Not really. From what I have seen over the past few years, Americans buy a football club to make money and don't want to invest. Saudis buy football clubs for soft power and making money from them isn't their objective. The Saudi owners pump money into their clubs, Americans do not.
Todd Boehly does.
 

YouGottaRaulWithIt

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I think he is the exception mate. Middle Eastern owners seem to be buying football clubs for soft power, not profit.
Stan Kroenke is American. Arsenal have spent loads.

John Henry (Liverpool), Wes Edens, also American, owns half of Villa, are spending too.

Even William Foley (Bournemouth), Alan Pace (Burnley), Josh Harris, David Blitzer and John Textor (Palace) are spending this summer. All American.

I dont think the Glazers have done much at United though. Hang on, aren't they buying Semedo?
 

MasWolf

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Stan Kroenke is American. Arsenal have spent loads.

John Henry (Liverpool), Wes Edens, also American, owns half of Villa, are spending too.

Even William Foley (Bournemouth), Alan Pace (Burnley), Josh Harris, David Blitzer and John Textor (Palace) are spending this summer. All American.

I dont think the Glazers have done much at United though. Hang on, aren't they buying Semedo?
Spending this summer and sustained spending over a number of years are two completely different things. Look at Man City and PSG. They spend money like it's water. They have no interest in recouping that money. I'm pretty sure all those American owners you have mentioned would want their money made back.
 

Wolf 82

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I think the Americans are seeing much more opportunity in the Premier League now than they used too.. football clubs valuations are ballooning, more people watching in North America will lead to higher TV revenues.. Premier League is THE undisputed premium football product right now.

I think American investors are probably a better situation for us atm.. not that I would say no to extreme Middle Eastern wealth though.
 

sc91

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Spending this summer and sustained spending over a number of years are two completely different things. Look at Man City and PSG. They spend money like it's water. They have no interest in recouping that money. I'm pretty sure all those American owners you have mentioned would want their money made back.
Yeah, they're pretty much banging the doors down....
 

Madmalc

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Business is all about confidence, just as money is all about confidence.
You only accept money if you believe you can use it to buy stuff.
Fosun had a pretty steep revenue and earnings per share growth being quoted to give confidence to its creditors (the debts owed) based on its balance sheet in 2022.
Fosun spent big at Wolves in January 2023. This wasn't planned.
Where are Fosun against their forecast based on continuing in business as a going concern to finance that 2022 balance sheet.
Well as of the1st of August 2023, the financial analyst(s) are saying they're on target to deliver.
To deliver Wolves has to tow the line with FFP, which also coincides with it being self sustaining.
Screen shot of where the analysts believe Fosun are at on the1st of August 2023, seven months into 2023:
1692901739774.png
 

Sevenwolves

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I can honestly say that I am totally baffled by what’s going on. I understand the Chinese economic challenges but you dont but you’re way out of that by selling a couple of wolves midfielders. Selling the club would make more sense but if you want to do that and maximise value you don’t set us up for relegation. #confused!
 
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