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The Parallax View

Axle

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This is not a Nuno in or out thread, but it is one that offers a view whereby histories and expectations are taken into account and allow us to place the last 3+ years within context.

1) It may well be that the team over-achieved in the first year of return to the PL. Many commentators have talked about the naivete of Wolves which allowed them to play so fluidly against top opposition. This was less so against lower teams, which was not always consistent with the way we played in the Champ, where there were times when we were bullied, but others where we were just so much better.

2) If we did over-achieve, then the team were largely doing the same in the second. First game back after lockdown we won easily at West Ham. As the European season continued to impinge, domestic performances fell away, suggesting that a lot of the good results were run on adrenaline.

3) After achieving the same finish in the second season, but not qualifying for Europe, anything after that is going to feel like an anti-climax for the players, especially as the team is directly affected by lack of crowds (see Liverpool as another example).

4) The loss of Raul is the most fascinating thing to me. We were still playing OK with him, but as we lost our best players (and sold a few, e.g. Jota who was NOT a first team starter, but could have adequately filled in for him) the results dried up. The question is, would another team in our position manage to get the same results and finish position that we are currently on target for? I.e. has Nuno adjusted to extenuating circumstances to make the team get points and safety in a situation which no-one could have foreseen? The central question is: Would we have done worse with another manager and has Nuno just tried - mostly successfully - adjust to circumstances and pick up what is necessary for continuation of the project?

5) If we have over-achieved in the first seasons, would fans have accepted 3x mid table finishes (10-12) in the first three seasons back in the PL? It seems as if everything is relative and teams should improve each season, which is a nice idea, but in football there are always winners and losers and they are not always consistent year-to-year.
 
D

Deleted member yltz11841

Guest
This is not a Nuno in or out thread, but it is one that offers a view whereby histories and expectations are taken into account and allow us to place the last 3+ years within context.

1) It may well be that the team over-achieved in the first year of return to the PL. Many commentators have talked about the naivete of Wolves which allowed them to play so fluidly against top opposition. This was less so against lower teams, which was not always consistent with the way we played in the Champ, where there were times when we were bullied, but others where we were just so much better.

2) If we did over-achieve, then the team were largely doing the same in the second. First game back after lockdown we won easily at West Ham. As the European season continued to impinge, domestic performances fell away, suggesting that a lot of the good results were run on adrenaline.

3) After achieving the same finish in the second season, but not qualifying for Europe, anything after that is going to feel like an anti-climax for the players, especially as the team is directly affected by lack of crowds (see Liverpool as another example).

4) The loss of Raul is the most fascinating thing to me. We were still playing OK with him, but as we lost our best players (and sold a few, e.g. Jota who was NOT a first team starter, but could have adequately filled in for him) the results dried up. The question is, would another team in our position manage to get the same results and finish position that we are currently on target for? I.e. has Nuno adjusted to extenuating circumstances to make the team get points and safety in a situation which no-one could have foreseen? The central question is: Would we have done worse with another manager and has Nuno just tried - mostly successfully - adjust to circumstances and pick up what is necessary for continuation of the project?

5) If we have over-achieved in the first seasons, would fans have accepted 3x mid table finishes (10-12) in the first three seasons back in the PL? It seems as if everything is relative and teams should improve each season, which is a nice idea, but in football there are always winners and losers and they are not always consistent year-to-year.
1)agree
2)Agree
3)i'd argue VVD missing is more important to them than the crowd, he is that good.
4)partly disagree, Raul is the difference between 0-points and 1 point once we inevitably go behind, and as every place is worth basically 2million I am not sure the owners see it as consolidation.(no excuse for lack of effort)
5)Play as we used to and id accept staying up in any position, play as we are and i struggle to be bothered to even watch now especially the first half of games.
 
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Chisels_n_ommers

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Year 1 I think was on par. We were the best side to come up out of the championship for many years.

Year 2, we over achieved because of the Europe campaign, number of games and small squad.

Year 3 we are Villa without Grealish, Palace without Saha, Southampton without Ings. We have lost momentum and joined the mediocre pack.

Nuno has got as many points as you would expect from the remaining group of players. The remaining players are run of the mill. The ones missing are the difference, as with those other clubs.

How have we got 41 points with this side (which a few are saying) ? Is that shrewd coaching or poor coaching? Because this side, bereft of the Rauls, Jonnys, Neto/Podence, Boly, (let alone Jota and Doc) isn't lower than it should be. Has Nuno over achieved dragging it to 41 points (stinking the place out in the process)?
 

Contrarian

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Great points. I think we did overachieve to an extent in both those seasons. Well, if not over achieve, then we hit our absolute maximum possible.

In hindsight, having hardly any injuries at all may well have been the difference between us and those team finishing 11/12/13th. As Chisels_n_ommers says, many teams in this bracket have one (or two) classy players who lift them. When those players are missing, they fall down the table. Leicester had Vardy missing much of the time, Southampton Ings, Everton Richarlison etc. So the other way to look at it is those teams dropped beneath us rather than us rising above them. Sounds crazy, but A finished higher than B is exactly the same as B finished lower than A.

This season, we learnt the hard way how injuries to just 1 or 2 key players break the whole team dynamic. It would be churlish and irrational not to allow other teams the same leeway we expect for ours. Where we are is not just about us ;)

Having said that, I still believe some cracks were showing long ago - in the start of last season when we started badly and that 2-5 defeat to Chelsea shocked us all. We had the occasional misfire where we were abysmal for the first hour then finally got going towards the end to rescue a point or win all 3. Just less of them, but they were there. And increasing in frequency, so gradually you may not notice. Until by middle of this season, it became the norm.

Post lockdown, our performances , in my opinion, had already fallen noticably from that first season. We'd lost Jonny, but still had Raul. It's a matter of degree. All the worst aspects of the current performance problems were there, only less often. Mostly. The Sheff U match, for example, was the overall performance really that different a year ago to the one a week ago? I don't think so. Back then, they got the late winner, this time we got it. Other than that, minimal creativity and little intent to get forward. Which we see most of the time now.

We have 41 points because on our day, if we set out even more super-ultra-bionic defensive than normal, we are well organised and very very hard to break down. Hence we snatch points here or there by hanging on grimly and on occasion. hitting the opponent for a breakaway goal (we have pace that Fulham/Sheff U/Brighton just don't have) when they have over-committed to try and break our 11 man defence down. (eg Leeds twice, Chelsea twice, Leicester 0-0, Sheff U, Fulham...). We are, thankfully, good enough to grind out just enough points if needed.
 
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clivewolves

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I don't really believe in overachieving or underachieving. You finish where you deserve to finish. We deserved to win the title in the Championship. We deserved to finish 7th twice. Wherever we finish this season we'll deserve that too.
 

Leamwolf

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I don't really believe in overachieving or underachieving. You finish where you deserve to finish. We deserved to win the title in the Championship. We deserved to finish 7th twice. Wherever we finish this season we'll deserve that too.
I echo this sentiment.

a team doesn’t over achieve in a league campaign, it finishes where it deserves to based upon their performances compared to the league around them.

But to do it two seasons in a row cannot be over achieving as for two straight seasons you finished in exactly the same spot, means for two years to finish 7th best in the top league is a great achievement and is the level you DESERVED!!! It also shows the season before was no fluke...... like Sheffield united have shown this campaign......

people who keep saying we “over achieved” are actually playing down the quality of that squad and the fantastic seasons they had, as to overachieve means you finished in a position better than the sum of your parts and actually they weren’t good enough to finish where the did.....

we did it for two seasons which means it wasn’t fluke, luck or overachieving! For two seasons it was a quality side delivering consistency across two gruelling campaigns......
 

Jamwolf

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I think that we are extremely lucky to be 12th at the moment.
 

Mile End Wanderer

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If we had got Europa we would of struggled more so in the league I’d say
 
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