Stats

[northnorfolkwolf]

The game now is dominated by stats/facts. Just about everything that happens in a match has a stat. Some are useful, some mildly interesting, some imo just a load of old crap. I'm not sure if we've ever had a thread dedicated to stats or, in fact, if we need one but it might be fun to see some as they occur throughout a season. Can I start by sharing the fact that Villa's 0-0 draw today was the first ever goal less game for Unai Emery in his 97 Prem matches as a manager. It perhaps does go to prove that the Prem is now more attack-focussed and the top teams play a higher line and take more risks? I await to be astounded!

 

[Chris H]

There are 10 types of people in the world, those who understand binary and those that don’t.

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

2.5 hours into this and perhaps there is little interest in a dedicated stats thread? Fair enough. Just 1 more Unai Emery stat - he is averaging 2 pts a game with Villa (46 games, 92 pts). No manager in the Prem has averaged 2 pts a game , having played 40+ games.

 

[JohnB]

2.5 hours into this and perhaps there is little interest in a dedicated stats thread? Fair enough. Just 1 more Unai Emery stat - he is averaging 2 pts a game with Villa (46 games, 92 pts). No manager in the Prem has averaged 2 pts a game , having played 40+ games.

Who cares about Villa?

My stat is Villa under Emery would be relegated if they played Wolves every week. 2 points from 3 games.

 

[Krispy Kreme]

Correlation does not equal causation.

 

[jrpb-3]

63% of all stats are made up on the spot

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

The game now is dominated by stats/facts. Just about everything that happens in a match has a stat. Some are useful, some mildly interesting, some imo just a load of old crap. I'm not sure if we've ever had a thread dedicated to stats or, in fact, if we need one but it might be fun to see some as they occur throughout a season. Can I start by sharing the fact that Villa's 0-0 draw today was the first ever goal less game for Unai Emery in his 97 Prem matches as a manager. It perhaps does go to prove that the Prem is now more attack-focussed and the top teams play a higher line and take more risks? I await to be astounded!

 

[CelebrityWolf]

98% of Mix posters are insanely jealous of Aston Villa

 

[Olivergoldblack]

View attachment 39747

That spike in the 50s and 60s was probably down to us lol

 

[Wolf in Kenilworth]

View attachment 39747

Football only started in 1992, didn’t it?

 

[SA Wolf]

The stat that annoys me the most is the one they show during every game and that's the 'win probability'. Rarely works out and then, lo and behold, they show it again after a goal has been scored and hey-presto, it's changed. Who'da thunk that would happen!

 

[giantwolf]

I have a Wolves related one for you.........

Our first three goals of the season were all scored by substitutes. That made us the first team in the history of the premier league to do this.

Interesting, but utterly useless!

 

[theweave]

2.5 hours into this and perhaps there is little interest in a dedicated stats thread? Fair enough. Just 1 more Unai Emery stat - he is averaging 2 pts a game with Villa (46 games, 92 pts). No manager in the Prem has averaged 2 pts a game , having played 40+ games.

Pep and Klopp?

 

[Zico]

The stat that annoys me the most is the one they show during every game and that's the 'win probability'. Rarely works out and then, lo and behold, they show it again after a goal has been scored and hey-presto, it's changed. Who'da thunk that would happen!

Like the relegation probability that some were posting last season. Changed after every game, almost as if it was meaningless.

 

[Scallywolf]

The stat that annoys me the most is the one they show during every game and that's the 'win probability'. Rarely works out and then, lo and behold, they show it again after a goal has been scored and hey-presto, it's changed. Who'da thunk that would happen!

The game is not over until the referee blows his whistle.

What was our win probability in the 90th minute v Spurs at the Mol in November? We were losing 1-0 and our substitute (Sarabia) changed the game in a matter of minutes and we won 2-1.

Stats mean nothing to me and I find a lot of them a waste of time. One stat that really annoys me is that a certain club hasn’t beaten a certain club in 30 years, when one of the clubs has played in a different league for most of that time!

 

[AndyWolves]

Like the relegation probability that some were posting last season. Changed after every game, almost as if it was meaningless.

Probability of events happening changes as other events happen.

Your odds of winning the lottery twice would significantly reduce after your first win.

If you really want to break your brain look up the monty hall problem.

 

[SA Wolf]

The game is not over until the referee blows his whistle.

What was our win probability in the 90th minute v Spurs at the Mol in November? We were losing 1-0 and our substitute (Sarabia) changed the game in a matter of minutes and we won 2-1.

Stats mean nothing to me and I find a lot of them a waste of time. One stat that really annoys me is that a certain club hasn’t beaten a certain club in 30 years, when one of the clubs has played in a different league for most of that time!

Yep, another daft one, for sure.

 

[goldfish]

My stat, which I don't actually have to hand to back me up, is that Emery often starts well at new clubs, but his record tends to get worse after a while, especially in the League.

 

[Flump]

The stat that annoys me the most is the one they show during every game and that's the 'win probability'. Rarely works out and then, lo and behold, they show it again after a goal has been scored and hey-presto, it's changed. Who'da thunk that would happen!

It should be pretty obvious that in a sport as low scoring as football, scoring a goal will have a big impact on the win probability!

 

[Zico]

Probability of events happening changes as other events happen.

Your odds of winning the lottery twice would significantly reduce after your first win.

If you really want to break your brain look up the monty hall problem.

I'm aware of all that. But those are real probabilities. Those relegation probabilities are basically made up.

 

[goldfish]

An interesting thing I heard about XG....

There are many different models for calculating XG, and they're all trademarked by the companies that provide them, meaning the methods aren't open to scrutiny. This is a very bad situation as it can't lead to scrutiny of potentially shonky methods.

One shonky method which apparently is used is adding together the XG for chances that are linked. For example, if there's a goalmouth scramble that results in three chances which you'd expect to be scored 6 times out of 10, some XG methods add those together to give an XG of 1.8. But that's nonsense, because the last two chances only come about if previous chances are missed. If I've done my maths correctly, the right XG here is 0.936:

• First chance is XG of 0.6
• Second chance only comes about 4 times out of 10. It's scored 60% of those times. 60% of 40% = 24.
• XG of first chance + XG of second chance if first chance is missed is 0.84
• So the third chance only comes about 16 out of 100 times, and is scored 60% of those 16 times. 60% of 16% = 9.6
• XG of first chance + XG of second chance if first chance is missed +XG of third chance if first two chances are missed = 0.6+0.24+0.096= 0.936

So some models are overstating the XG by a factor of 2. That's astonishingly bad!

 

[giantwolf]

My stat, which I don't actually have to hand to back me up, is that Emery often starts well at new clubs, but his record tends to get worse after a while, especially in the League.

Wouldn't that be the case for most managers.......... hence why they get sacked?

 

[goldfish]

Wouldn't that be the case for most managers.......... hence why they get sacked?

To a degree, but I think it's especially stark for Emery, and happens over a longer period (i.e. he does well for a long period, well beyond the standard 'new manager bounce').

 

[Flump]

Probability of events happening changes as other events happen.

Your odds of winning the lottery twice would significantly reduce after your first win.

If you really want to break your brain look up the monty hall problem.

Your odds of winning the lottery twice increase sharply if you've won once.

They're still so small as to be effectively zero though.

 

[Zico]

Your odds of winning the lottery twice increase sharply if you've won once.

They're still so small as to be effectively zero though.

I think he means the odds decrease, the probability increases.

 

[Axle]

Stats are the same as mini skirts.

It’s what they cover up that is most important.

 

[WolfLing]

Here's an unbelievable one....

Timo Werner has more Champions League goals than Ronaldo (R9, the original Ronaldo).

 

[wolvesjoe]

At any one time or period, some stats are revealing, others irrelevant or even misleading.
The trick is to work out which is which.

This season, Wolves seem to have benefitted from two sets of stats being noticed and acted upon :

1. Back 4 was surrendering far too much space behind the full backs. We switched to the 3 centrebacks
and saw a marked improvement in chances yielded.

2. Wolves were starting far too cautiously and falling behind to the opening goal. There are signs that this
has been addressed with tentatively positive results.

Both fairly straightforward, it has to be said, but vital in terms of outcomes. The more unusual and buried patterns,
a la Freakonomics or those found in any of Malcolm Gladwell's books tend to emerge only over longer timespans.

 

[AndyWolves]

Corners are largely pointless and rarely result in a goal

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

The stat that annoys me the most is the one they show during every game and that's the 'win probability'. Rarely works out and then, lo and behold, they show it again after a goal has been scored and hey-presto, it's changed. Who'da thunk that would happen!

Thanks for this. Your contribution is exactly why I started this thread. I'm totally fed up being bombarded with stats every game. It's ****ing obvious - the team in the lead's win probability is going to be more than the team losing, esp with 20 minutes to go! Wolves have won more free kicks in the final third than any other team this season or Wolves defenders average height is more than any other team - what total *******s.

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

I have a Wolves related one for you.........

Our first three goals of the season were all scored by substitutes. That made us the first team in the history of the premier league to do this.

Interesting, but utterly useless!

Brilliant - this is what we want! Thanks.

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

Corners are largely pointless and rarely result in a goal

Did you know - Wolves are the only side not to have let a goal in from a corner this season?! Actually this is a pretty good stat/fact. Stats don't necessarily have to be all bad/crap, though I am struggling to think of some that are genuinely useful!

 

[AndyWolves]

Did you know - Wolves are the only side not to have let a goal in from a corner this season?! Actually this is a pretty good stat/fact. Stats don't necessarily have to be all bad/crap, though I am struggling to think of some that are genuinely useful!

Stats aren't good or bad. It's the way they're used that's the problem

 

[thommo1984]

STAT!

Newcastle haven't scored a result-altering goal (equaliser or winner) after the 64th minute of any match this season.

 

[Ginger Chimp]

STAT!

Newcastle haven't scored a result-altering goal (equaliser or winner) after the 64th minute of any match this season.

Now, THAT’S a stat.

 

[Flump]

Thanks for this. Your contribution is exactly why I started this thread. I'm totally fed up being bombarded with stats every game. It's ****ing obvious - the team in the lead's win probability is going to be more than the team losing, esp with 20 minutes to go! Wolves have won more free kicks in the final third than any other team this season or Wolves defenders average height is more than any other team - what total *******s.

You know, if I had to guess your view on any new stat, I think I'd have got this right! The point isn't just that if a team is winning they're more likely to win, it's how goals and time change that.

For example, let's say we're 1-0 up away against City, if it's after 1 minute, I expect we still wouldn't be favourites to win the match (although may well be to draw). If it's after 90 mins, then obviously we would be favourites. I don't really have any intuitive way of knowing at what minute in the match we would become favourites, but that stat would be interesting, to me.

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

You know, if I had to guess your view on any new stat, I think I'd have got this right! The point isn't just that if a team is winning they're more likely to win, it's how goals and time change that.

For example, let's say we're 1-0 up away against City, if it's after 1 minute, I expect we still wouldn't be favourites to win the match (although may well be to draw). If it's after 90 mins, then obviously we would be favourites. I don't really have any intuitive way of knowing at what minute in the match we would become favourites, but that stat would be interesting, to me.

How many others on here would also be interested to know that? Now that would be an interesting stat!

 

[CelebrityWolf]

Reading this thread it seems a lot of people don't understand what statistics are.

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

Reading this thread it seems a lot of people don't understand what statistics are.

Well I started the thread, please explain?