Spending £30m+ on a centre back is a huge gamble we probably shouldn't take!

[WolfLing]

We could have spent £30m+ on Sven Botman last summer. He may have been a very good signing. But Max Kilman might still be sitting on our bench as a result.

How much is Max Kilman worth now?

It's too much to spend on a position where there are too many variables. Potentially too much of a risk for a club of our size, with a strategy that provides limited transfer funds.

Our current starting three centre backs cost a total of £6.1m, Saiss - £3.6m, Coady £2.5m and Kilman - Free.

Contrast that to the Spurs back 3 yesterday made up of Romero - £42m obligation, Sanchez - £38m and Davies - £11.4m. £91.4m in total.

Spurs fans were bemoaning the fact that their best CB is missing, Eric Dier, a £4.5m signing from Sporting.

Centre back is one of those positions where if you spend a lot of money on the finished article, it can pay off (van Dijk - £76m, Dias - £62m, Laporte - £59m, Rudiger - £31.5m).

But the jury is still out on a number of players who have gone for big fees (Maguire - £78m, White - £52m, Stones - £50m, Ake - £40m, Varane - £36m, Konate - £36m).

Or they just haven't fulfilled the hope their big fee commanded (Sanchez - £38m, Bailly - £36m, Lindelof - £31m, Mina - £27m, Keane - £26m, Godfrey - £25m).

I don't think we are at the level yet where we can invest so much money into a position where other teams have proven it is so difficult to get it right.

Players at CB develop so differently and so much later than in other positions. Sometimes it's more about timing and opportunity (see Kilman and to a lesser extent Toti).

I think we would be much better off investing any money we have elsewhere in our team and hoping that the likes of Toti, Sanderson, Marques and Mosquera can develop into functional Premier League central defenders (or maybe better).

Or looking for potential stars of the future for lower and less risky fees.

Players like Mahammed Salisu before he signed for Southampton. He looked an absolute car-crash when he first joined them (and when we played them last season), but he is blossoming into a real Rolls-Royce defender this year. Left-footed centre-backs generally command a premium and it wouldn't surprise me if he goes for big money to a top side soon (or Newcastle!). He cost Southampton £11m, which was probably a lot for what they were buying, but he will be worth a lot more if/when they sell him.

Or an experienced centre back for a bargain price like Jonny Evans to Leicester for £3.6m.

We could do a lot worse than Tarkowski on a free!!

 

[sillytuna]

We spent 25m on a full back and it still took 12-15 months for him to settle. First few games were awful too.

Part of the problem is if you're buying from outside the English leagues then the player also has to acclimatise and you don't know if they will.

Any time we spend a lot of money it's a risk. Just look at a certain italian striker. Total disaster. I much, much prefer our focus on youth to big signings.

 

[WolfLing]

We spent 25m on a full back and it still took 12-15 months for him to settle. First few games were awful too.

Part of the problem is if you're buying from outside the English leagues then the player also has to acclimatise and you don't know if they will.

Any time we spend a lot of money it's a risk. Just look at a certain italian striker. Total disaster. I much, much prefer our focus on youth to big signings.

Yes, agree, whenever you spend big, it is somewhat of a risk.

If a player goes for a big fee at CB, if they do well they will probably hold their value, or command slightly more. But they are unlikely to improve their value dramatically if the initial fee was very large.

Semedo and Silva are good examples. Semedo is doing well and as a wing/fullback has probably at best held his value.

But if Silva improves and fulfils his potential over the next few seasons, as a young forward player, we could probably sell him for more than we paid for him, however inflated the initial fee was.

I just think that a big fee for a centre back is more of a risk to the initial investment than big outlays in midfield or forward positions, especially when you can get arguably the same output for less far more often at CB than you can in other positions.

 

[Deleted member (smith)]

10th August 2018

Max Kilman, Alexander Molberg and James Pardington have joined Wolves Academy in a triple deadline day transfer.​

Left-back Kilman joins on a two-year deal from Maidenhead United having made one National League appearance last season against Gateshead.
Molberg, a Danish centre half, has signed on loan until January from Hobro IK in his home nation.
Meanwhile, goalkeeper James Pardington has joined until the end of the season after leaving Rushall Olympic.
All three new signings will be available for selection as Rob Edwards’ side begin their campaign at Reading on Saturday.




not free, not found under a bush….cost estimated at 500,000 . Could have got slabhead for 80 million but small time Jeff had a different vision.

I believe it is well understood that Wolves can only afford to shop in the bargain store and hope to develop and all the talk of Tarkovsky, Ming’s etc is fully misguided and highly unlikely with that strategy.Not to say small time Jeff didn’t approve Moutinho which is a reminder cost is salary plus transfer fee over the contract.

 

[Flump]

I think defenders perhaps even more than other positions, are dependent on having good/well organised players around them to play well, or at least to be seen to be playing well.

I.e. put Kilman in the Norwich or Leeds teams, and I expect he'd look pretty poor. With attacking players they can show their quality and catch the eye even in a poor side, but that's much harder for a CB to do.

 

[woop woop barmy army]

This is the beauty of football and why we love it and also pull our hair out.

spending 30 million on a defender doesn't guarantee the player will be a success.

But then it might take signing 20 Max Killman type players to be a hit

We've just got a balance it and get it right.

 

[WolfLing]

not free, not found under a bush….cost estimated at 500,000 . Could have got slabhead for 80 million but small time Jeff had a different vision.

£500,000? That would have been the record sale for a National League club at the time!

Most sources including all the articles at the time quote the fee as 'undisclosed'. If it were anywhere close to a record fee received by a National League side, it would have been reported.

My guess is it was nowhere near that. So nominal, it was closer to 'free' than you would think!

 

[WolfLing]

This is the beauty of football and why we love it and also pull our hair out.

spending 30 million on a defender doesn't guarantee the player will be a success.

But then it might take signing 20 Max Killman type players to be a hit

We've just got a balance it and get it right.

I do think there appears to be a sweet-spot for players, where the fee paid isn't too much for expectations to be too high.

It's that £5m-£20m level, where most of the success stories sit.

Anything less than £5m and they are generally ones for the future, with no expectation at all. Anything more and unless they are world-beaters from day 1, the club will be criticised (Semedo and Silva).

I do think the club are aware of this and it's where some of the reluctance to spend big comes from!

 

[Deleted member (smith)]

£500,000? That would have been the record sale for a National League club at the time!

Most sources including all the articles at the time quote the fee as 'undisclosed'. If it were anywhere close to a record fee received by a National League side, it would have been reported.

My guess is it was nowhere near that. So nominal, it was closer to 'free' than you would think!

undisclosed is probably about right and free May be closer that 500 k ( not even sure where I read that) but you know he played futsal (what is that ?) for England and had to give that up …. Must have had to beat off Barcelona , City and Chelsea to get him.

 

[Axle]

Strange thing with Maguire is that he looks really good for England but toss for ManUre.

I would always have him in the England team irrespective of club form, because he clearly loves playing for us and does a very capable job (team of the tournament in Euros)

The players around him are decent at both levels, so why is he so not justifying his fee there?

Got to be the coaching. Or lack of it at club level.

 

[Ned]

I’d say the £30m could be put to better, more urgent use.

 

[reanswolf]

Personally I've not really felt CB should be apriority for some time now.

 

[OLDGOLD]

Personally I've not really felt CB should be apriority for some time now.

CM and striker seem to be the ones. I think we are well stocked elsewhere.

 

[Boss Hogg]

Personally I've not really felt CB should be apriority for some time now.

Saiss, Marcal and Boly will all likely depart in the Summer so I think we do need at least one CB with a bit of experience

 

[CelebrityWolf]

Not sure I really follow? We still need a CB. Boly will likely be gone in the summer, Saiss doesn't have a contract offer yet, it is doubtful Coady will be effective if we go to a back four. Kilman is great. Toti is young and raw and still has a long way to go before being considered established or even consistently good enough.

 

[Alex Rae The Substitute]

Right now I’d sooner we drop £30m on a striker.

I’d like to caveat this by saying it would need to be a more experienced player than Silva type signing (love to Fabio though, still hoping he fulfills his potential), we really need a here and now striker to work with Raul and take some of the burden.

 

[OLDGOLD]

Saiss, Marcal and Boly will all likely depart in the Summer so I think we do need at least one CB with a bit of experience

Indeed. If they go. But currently we are well stocked there.

 

[Streathamwolf]

Kilman, Coasy, Saiss, Toti, Mosquera, Boly, with back up from Donk and Marcal and Sanderson in the wings means, imo, we don't need any more CBs. The point about spending above a certain level for a CB being a risky investment is a good one though.

Also, I think Kilman would look good in pretty much any team now, his confidence on the ball and his timing with tackles would always stand out.

 

[WolfLing]

Right now I’d sooner we drop £30m on a striker.

And spending money on a striker is always way more exciting anyway!

 

[Streathamwolf]

Saiss, Marcal and Boly will all likely depart in the Summer so I think we do need at least one CB with a bit of experience

This is guess work though. Boly may well go but I would be surprised and disappointed if Saiss goes.

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

If you think Sanderson coming through too. Hoever is RB / CB and not forgetting Marques. Maybe it would be sensible to keep Saiss on sell Boly and bring in another CB to replace him. Also we’ve not seen much of Mosquera. Bottom line is why spend money when we don’t have to.. We’re keeping clean sheets at Man Utd and Tottenham we can’t be that bad?? We need to improve our attacking stats. That is where I’d be wanting to invest more money.

Marcal likely to leave, I’m hoping we can keep Saiss. Looks like Moutinho could also leave on a free

 

[WolfLing]

Not sure I really follow? We still need a CB. Boly will likely be gone in the summer, Saiss doesn't have a contract offer yet, it is doubtful Coady will be effective if we go to a back four. Kilman is great. Toti is young and raw and still has a long way to go before being considered established or even consistently good enough.

If we do lose Saiss and Boly, we probably will need to buy another CB.

My point is, we should specifically look for a low risk, value signing at CB, not a big fee.

Some good free transfers up for grabs. A lot of players with 1 year left on their deals too (Caleta-Car being one).

Save the money for the positions where it makes more of a difference!!

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

If we do lose Saiss and Boly, we probably will need to buy another CB.

My point is, we should specifically look for a low risk, value signing at CB, not a big fee.

Some good free transfers up for grabs. A lot of players with 1 year left on their deals too (Caleta-Car being one).

Save the money for the positions where it makes more of a difference!!

There's always decent CHs going and if they are coming in to be back up or part of the squad you can think of the likes of Mee and Tarkowski if Burnley go down and look how good Craig Dawson has been at WHU. CH has never been an issue as we are well stocked but it will be if some leave in the summer.

 

[Keyser Soze]

I agree with the narrative of this thread, and spending £30M+ on a CB for a club with our finances would be a gamble when we perhaps need more firepower elsewhere and a defence that can be a success at PL can be put together far cheaper, as we have done. The risk to reward is different to other positions

There's perhaps a handful of young CB's where Fosun may be tempted to invest, those with enough potential to get into a VVD price bracket in the future... we're lead to believe a Botman or a Badiashile are such CB's and if we were to spend that kind of money on them they will become those £70/80M CB's... but we're going on reputation alone here and the gamble remains, unless our scouts are convinced they will become an elite CB

If we do lose Boly, Saiss & Marcal this summer, and are left with Coady, Kilman plus one of Toti, Sanderson or Mosquera (with maybe Marques) then we may still feel that investment gamble on a big money, young CB would then be perhaps worth it and would likely be coming in to start and replace Saiss and have more chance of reaching that high resale value

But it also depends on our overall budget this summer, and if a £30M CB means no target man, midfielder etc. then again, the OP is right and we need that money for those positions if its an either/or situation, but a future elite CB for £30M could still be argued for in certain circumstances, if things went that way

 

[lets all have a disco]

This is guess work though. Boly may well go but I would be surprised and disappointed if Saiss goes.

Saiss will probably get a better longer term offer being on a free that what we will offer him, and it will be from a decent side....... Seville mentioned...

 

[the 15th Wanderer]

We spent 25m on a full back and it still took 12-15 months for him to settle. First few games were awful too.

Part of the problem is if you're buying from outside the English leagues then the player also has to acclimatise and you don't know if they will.

Any time we spend a lot of money it's a risk. Just look at a certain italian striker. Total disaster. I much, much prefer our focus on youth to big signings.

Semedo was always decent I do agree he has got better and has arguably been our best player this season.
When he first came he was criticised for every error due to the perceived high fee and pining for Docherty.

 

[OLDGOLD]

Saiss will probably get a better longer term offer being on a free that what we will offer him, and it will be from a decent side....... Seville mentioned...

It would be sad I he went to Seville because we were unable to orange a deal to keep him.....

 

[cannockwolves]

Do we need a new centre back now we have seen Gomes can slot into the back three. I would prefer to offer Saiss a new contract and bring back Sanderson.

We need to upgrade Central midfield if we lose Moutinho - I still think Palhinha is Bruno's type of player. They have committed to Hwang but Bruno has already said that he wants a more physical option up front.

I think there will be four purchases in the summer - Hwang we know about, someone like Palhinha in the centre, a physical striker (no idea who), and the obvious Adama Trincao swap deal that looks likely.

Keep Saiss, let Marcel and Boly go bring back Sanderson, Giles, MGW and we will be fine.

 

[JayStringer]

To be honest, I would rather spend 20-35 million on a midfielder than a defender. Get the midfield options right and the sky is the limit for BrunoBall.

 

[Gold Flag Flying High]

I think we need a top cb I can see saiss marcal bolly going, but it doesn’t mean we have to spend big I agree, plenty of bargains to be had, even younger cb at good prices out there too.

 

[JohnB]

Great post.

Completely agree…..with 5 at the back. One question though, if Bruno wants 4 at the back then what‘s the view? How many of our CBs would you confidently play in a back 4 for a season?

Not being negative just wondering.

 

[A3wolf]

Great post.

Completely agree…..with 5 at the back. One question though, if Bruno wants 4 at the back then what‘s the view? How many of our CBs would you confidently play in a back 4 for a season?

Not being negative just wondering.

Agree on this, most if not all shine in a 3 cb scenario and may not be suited to a 2. Other issue we have is in particular nor is our talismanic leader Coady imo. For these reasons I wouldn’t change to 4 at the back and use the funds for midfield and upfront.

 

[WolfLing]

Great post.

Completely agree…..with 5 at the back. One question though, if Bruno wants 4 at the back then what‘s the view? How many of our CBs would you confidently play in a back 4 for a season?

Not being negative just wondering.

I don’t know. But if we had a big, combative, holding, defensive midfield player (like Palhinha), alongside Neves and one other in a 4-3-3, then it could offer more protection and make a difference.

 

[WickedWolfie]

We could have spent £30m+ on Sven Botman last summer. He may have been a very good signing. But Max Kilman might still be sitting on our bench as a result.

How much is Max Kilman worth now?

It's too much to spend on a position where there are too many variables. Potentially too much of a risk for a club of our size, with a strategy that provides limited transfer funds.

Our current starting three centre backs cost a total of £6.1m, Saiss - £3.6m, Coady £2.5m and Kilman - Free.

Contrast that to the Spurs back 3 yesterday made up of Romero - £42m obligation, Sanchez - £38m and Davies - £11.4m. £91.4m in total.

Spurs fans were bemoaning the fact that their best CB is missing, Eric Dier, a £4.5m signing from Sporting.

Centre back is one of those positions where if you spend a lot of money on the finished article, it can pay off (van Dijk - £76m, Dias - £62m, Laporte - £59m, Rudiger - £31.5m).

But the jury is still out on a number of players who have gone for big fees (Maguire - £78m, White - £52m, Stones - £50m, Ake - £40m, Varane - £36m, Konate - £36m).

Or they just haven't fulfilled the hope their big fee commanded (Sanchez - £38m, Bailly - £36m, Lindelof - £31m, Mina - £27m, Keane - £26m, Godfrey - £25m).

I don't think we are at the level yet where we can invest so much money into a position where other teams have proven it is so difficult to get it right.

Players at CB develop so differently and so much later than in other positions. Sometimes it's more about timing and opportunity (see Kilman and to a lesser extent Toti).

I think we would be much better off investing any money we have elsewhere in our team and hoping that the likes of Toti, Sanderson, Marques and Mosquera can develop into functional Premier League central defenders (or maybe better).

Or looking for potential stars of the future for lower and less risky fees.

Players like Mahammed Salisu before he signed for Southampton. He looked an absolute car-crash when he first joined them (and when we played them last season), but he is blossoming into a real Rolls-Royce defender this year. Left-footed centre-backs generally command a premium and it wouldn't surprise me if he goes for big money to a top side soon (or Newcastle!). He cost Southampton £11m, which was probably a lot for what they were buying, but he will be worth a lot more if/when they sell him.

Or an experienced centre back for a bargain price like Jonny Evans to Leicester for £3.6m.

We could do a lot worse than Tarkowski on a free!!

In some ways l agree... But what would a Tarkowski want in wages and where is he on the downwards slope?

 

[Mugwump]

Great post.

Completely agree…..with 5 at the back. One question though, if Bruno wants 4 at the back then what‘s the view? How many of our CBs would you confidently play in a back 4 for a season?

Not being negative just wondering.

That's the thing, everyone seems to write off Coady in a back 4 when every other center half is in the same boat as him. We haven't really seen any of them perform well in a 4 to know.

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

If Burnley go down offer them 40m for Cornet & Weghorst then if we’re after a cheap defender maybe Rob Holding could play in a back 3 for us if Boly or Saiss leave…. Wouldn’t cost too much either. Then should leave enough cash for either Palhinha or someone else in the midfield

 

[JayStringer]

I've said it before, will say it again. I have no fears about a Coady/Kilman back two. Bruno's more aggressive defending and pressing approach has shown that many of the things generally accepted about Coady for years aren't true. Could he play in a back two under Nuno? Maybe not. Can he play in one under Bruno? Yep.

The whole "can Coady play in a four" issue is an argument from the past.

The big loss in switching to a four now would be what do we do with Saiss? His forward passing in the three has been a key ingredient to our success this season, and switching to a four would lose that outlet. But if switching also to a well-balanced midfield three, that's not a problem, because the passing can come from the deepest midfielder.

With Coady and Kilman proven, with Gomes doing well, with Saiss as an option to re-sign, with Mosquera and Sanderson still to come in and prove themselves...I'm entirely relaxed about our centrebacks. I do expect an upgrade in the summer, in all probability, but I don't think we need one.

Far more pressing IMO is to bring in one or two midfielders -one of them first team ready at 20-35 million- to give Bruno tactical options. The Spurs game showed what can be achieved with a well-balanced three. Two mobile runners with an eye for a pass on either side of Neves and the sky is the limit. With the midfield three sorted, Bruno can then change the front and backline options as needed game-to-game, 532/352 one week, 433 the next, with three midfielders who know their roles as the fulcrum.

 

[JayStringer]

If Burnley go down offer them 40m for Cornet & Weghorst then if we’re after a cheap defender maybe Rob Holding could play in a back 3 for us if Boly or Saiss leave…. Wouldn’t cost too much either. Then should leave enough cash for either Palhinha or someone else in the midfield

I'll be honest, I don't think I'd sign anyone from Burnley at this point, with the exception of Dwight McNeil. There's a reason they are where they are.

 

[Bill S Preston Esq.]

I do think there appears to be a sweet-spot for players, where the fee paid isn't too much for expectations to be too high.

It's that £5m-£20m level, where most of the success stories sit.

Anything less than £5m and they are generally ones for the future, with no expectation at all. Anything more and unless they are world-beaters from day 1, the club will be criticised (Semedo and Silva).

I do think the club are aware of this and it's where some of the reluctance to spend big comes from!

We've spent some big fees on players that took time to bed in or in some cases didn't bed in at all. Semedo and Cutrone spring to mind.

It's not my money and even I cringe when we spend big money. I much prefer what clearly looks like a bargain.

 

[Bill S Preston Esq.]

I've said it before, will say it again. I have no fears about a Coady/Kilman back two. Bruno's more aggressive defending and pressing approach has shown that many of the things generally accepted about Coady for years aren't true. Could he play in a back two under Nuno? Maybe not. Can he play in one under Bruno? Yep.

The whole "can Coady play in a four" issue is an argument from the past.

The big loss in switching to a four now would be what do we do with Saiss? His forward passing in the three has been a key ingredient to our success this season, and switching to a four would lose that outlet. But if switching also to a well-balanced midfield three, that's not a problem, because the passing can come from the deepest midfielder.

With Coady and Kilman proven, with Gomes doing well, with Saiss as an option to re-sign, with Mosquera and Sanderson still to come in and prove themselves...I'm entirely relaxed about our centrebacks. I do expect an upgrade in the summer, in all probability, but I don't think we need one.

Far more pressing IMO is to bring in one or two midfielders -one of them first team ready at 20-35 million- to give Bruno tactical options. The Spurs game showed what can be achieved with a well-balanced three. Two mobile runners with an eye for a pass on either side of Neves and the sky is the limit. With the midfield three sorted, Bruno can then change the front and backline options as needed game-to-game, 532/352 one week, 433 the next, with three midfielders who know their roles as the fulcrum.

We now have a sweeper keeper too which helps with Coady's lack of electrifying pace.