Premier League predictions – our right and wrong calls | John Ashdown

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<div class="track"><img alt="" src="http://hits.guardian.co.uk/b/ss/guardiangu-feeds/1/H.24.1.1/31627?ns=guardian&pageName=Premier+League+predictions+*+our+right+and+wrong+calls+%7C+John+Ashdown%3AArticle%3A1745419&ch=Football&c3=GU.co.uk&c4=Premier+League+2011-12%2CPremier+League+%28Football%29%2CFootball%2CSport&c5=Unclassified%2CPremier+League&c6=John+Ashdown&c7=12-May-15&c8=1745419&c9=Article&c10=Analysis%2CComment&c11=Football&c13=&c25=Sport+blog&c30=content&c42=Sport&h2=GU%2FSport%2FFootball%2FPremier+League+2011-12" width="1" height="1" /></div><p class="standfirst">Our writers may have predicted Manchester United to pip City to the title and until the last minute of the season they were spot-on</p><p>Come with us now on a journey through time and space. Well, time anyway. Let's go back to August 2011 – London was rioting, Barack Obama was polishing off the final slices of his 50th birthday cake, Mr&nbsp;Popper's Penguins was playing to half-empty multiplexes across the land, and we were predicting just what was going to happen in the forthcoming Premier League season.</p><p>In our defence, we were predicting a full picture from an incomplete jigsaw. We had a few bits of sky, three corners and a couple of what might have been sheep on a hillside, but some key pieces were missing. Arsenal, for example, had yet to sign Mikel Arteta, Yossi Benayoun, Per Mertesacker or André Santos. Raul Meireles was still at Liverpool, Scott Parker at West Ham United, José Enrique at Newcastle United.</p><p>Things took shape quickly – by the end of September, six games in, the two Manchester clubs were first and second, Newcastle had already impressed and sat unbeaten in fourth, while Bolton Wanderers and Blackburn Rovers filled two of the relegation spots – but back then we were just really reliant only on our incredible wealth of tactical knowledge, unerring ability to read the game and astonishing insight into the workings of the managerial mind.</p><p>Enough excuses for you? OK, then. Back in August, when we asked our writers to predict what the final table would look like, then added everything up and divided by whatever in a process that seemed fairly mathematical at the time, this is what we came up with (actual positions in brackets):</p><p><strong>1</strong> Manchester Utd (2)</p><p><strong>2</strong> Manchester City (1)</p><p><strong>3</strong> Chelsea (6)</p><p><strong>4</strong> Liverpool (8)</p><p><strong>5</strong> Arsenal (3)</p><p><strong>6</strong> Tottenham (4)</p><p><strong>7</strong> Everton (7)</p><p><strong>8</strong> Sunderland (13)</p><p><strong>9 </strong>Fulham (9)</p><p><strong>10</strong> Stoke (14)</p><p><strong>11</strong> Bolton (18)</p><p><strong>12</strong> Aston Villa (16)</p><p><strong>13</strong> West Bromwich (10)</p><p><strong>14</strong> Newcastle (5)</p><p><strong>15</strong> Wolves (20)</p><p><strong>16</strong> Norwich (12)</p><p><strong>17</strong> QPR (17)</p><p><strong>18</strong> Wigan (15)</p><p><strong>19</strong> Blackburn (19)</p><p><strong>20</strong> Swansea (11)</p><p>So, OK, we got the big one wrong. The most obvious mis-prediction was in the title race, where we had the Manchester clubs in the wrong order (although, until the 94th-minute at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday, we had it bang on). We over-rated Bolton and Wolves by a considerable margin and under-rated Newcastle and Swansea by nine places each. Four teams – Everton, Fulham, QPR and Blackburn – we had spot-on.</p><p>Why did we think United would pip City? "A personal hunch is that their squad, in its current size, might find the combination of going for the title and playing their first season in the Champions League a little too heavy going – but that it will be a close-run thing," wrote Daniel Taylor, who, like the rest of us, was yet to know just what a close run thing it would be.</p><p>Our United preview did strike a note of caution, however: "The problem for a club of United's size is that they should always be looking for vast rather than marginal improvement and, unless something changes, the various knock-backs for Samir Nasri and Wesley Sneijder are threatening to thwart real, significant progress."</p><p>We didn't reckon much to Newcastle's chances, but we were hardly alone. "The decision to sell Nolan will come back to haunt the Toon. 15th," reckoned Corinthian11. "They have no chance of finishing in the top half, I'd predict that they will flirt with relegation," said Chasm. " But Newcastle fans were more optimistic. "I've seen some say 17th? Relegation? Struggle season?," wrote ShareCertificate. "I think you give the teams we will be up against outside the top six far too much credit. We will do better than that. How much better, we shall see."</p><p>While our predicted tables brought Swansea out bottom, Scott Murray's preview was not all doom and gloom. "A relegation scrap is on the cards, though the Swans have the tools to survive," he wrote, "especially if they stick to their principles and keep passing it around at pace."</p><p>And what of the teams we over-rated? Why were we expecting a mid-table finish for Wolverhampton Wanderers? "Wolves should be much better equipped than the three promoted clubs and also capable of competing on a level footing with the likes of Newcastle United, West Bromwich Albion, Blackburn Rovers, Wigan Athletic and Bolton Wanderers," we wrote. And we were half-right – Wolves essentially achieved the same as Blackburn and Bolton.</p><p>Below the line optimism was not in short supply. "If we can avoid injuries to key players and perhaps rub-up against the financial envelope before the transfer window we can perhaps look forward to the end of the season without the dread and nerves that this season was able to inflict," wrote VegasWolves, who was again half-right. Wolves had a stress-free final day.</p><p>"Realistically Bolton should have enough to keep clear of a relegation battle," we said in our preview, although Paul Doyle <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/video/2011/aug/02/bolton-wanderers-premier-league-video" title="">at the very end of the accompanying video</a> fingered the Trotters for relegation. Why were Arsenal set to miss out on the top four? "Arsenal have not yet been as aggressive and decisive in the market as suggested by the promise from Wenger that they would be 'very active'," wrote Amy Lawrence. "There is still a lot to do, with, astonishingly, the defence barely touched thus far. Where is the new robust centre-half, the experienced left-back to replace Gaël Clichy, the alternative to Alex Song in defensive midfield and the goalkeeper to prevent any more sightings of Almunia if injury strikes again?"</p><p>So there we are. We had our reasons. We'll get it right next year. Possibly.</p><div class="related" style="float: left; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;"><ul><li><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/premier-league-2011-12">Premier League 2011-12</a></li><li><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/premierleague">Premier League</a></li></ul></div><div class="author"><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/johnashdown">John Ashdown</a></div><br/><div class="terms"><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk">guardian.co.uk</a> &copy; 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. 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