Medium term view of Premier League

[ShifnalWolf]

I wonder what the top half of the Premier League will look over the next 4 to 5 years, regardless of Wolves' ambitions. I have but together a couple of ideas, as i really don't know what will happen.

A) Will the Top 10 continue as it is, being a Top 6 of Utd/City/Spurs/L'Pool/Arsenal/Chelsea with then the remainder of the top 10 consisting of a couple of the larger spenders (Everton/Leicester) plus a couple of surprise one-off seasons (Burnley).

B) Will the strain of Europe increase, meaning that although the Top 4 will always be filled by one of the Big 6, 5th/6th may be up for grabs as the Big 6 teams (who know they won't make CL) de-prioritise the league to avoid EL, thus opening it up for the 2nd tier spenders (Everton/Leicester/Wolves)

C) Will the Big 6 gradually be pulled back, with small teams breaking the top 4 (Leicester 15/16) on more regularity.

D) Anything else!

 

[Chungster]

European Super League hopefully.....

Bluffs need calling. Boils need lancing.

Sooner the better for me.

 

[OscillatingWildly]

Arsenal and Chelsea look most vulnerable as it stands (I am not saying we are currently in contention to fill that void, for the avoidance of doubt). Arsenal need the appointment of Emery to work otherwise it could be a slow drift from just about making the Champions League spots to just about making the Europa League spots to nothing. Their board aren't ever going to go on a serious spree to try and match the Manchester clubs so it's all about smart buys and getting the best out of the key players they already own. I like the new manager, but it's pressure from day one for him. Far from convinced Leno is going to work out for them, that could be a misstep already.

Chelsea are trying to work towards some form of self-sufficiency, again the days of Abramovich sticking his hand in his pocket for £100m+ net of signings seem to be gone. If they are going down that road then they need a bigger ground to increase revenue...only they can't build one and they can't move either. Again, could be heading for some form of drift.

The other four should be golden for a while although you can never discount a shocker of a season somewhere. Spurs wouldn't look too handy if Kane got injured in early September and was out for months on end, for instance.

I don't see big teams trying to avoid the Europa League, they have big enough squads to deal with it.

The big change over the last few years has been the significant decline in quality in the bottom half of the table. I look at teams who finished between say, 9th and 14th in years gone past and at present none of the current candidates match up. Have a look at the Everton team who we beat towards the end of 2003/4, they finished 17th on 39 points:

Martyn; Hibbert, Yobo, Weir, Pistone; Osman, Carsley, Nyarko, McFadden; Radzinski, Rooney

That looks quite a bit better to me than what Bournemouth, Watford, Palace and Brighton send out. Whether this trend continues, we'll have to see. I think a critical factor is the number of smallish clubs who've made it up to the PL and stayed there - absolutely fair play to them for that, it's all on merit, but clubs tend to have a natural ceiling. There's no way that clubs such as that will ever have the same pull as the likes of Villa, Leeds, Forest, Sheff Wed etc if they were to manage to become a stable PL club (in as much as such a thing even exists).

 

[1312]

We'll win the league

 

[JonahWolf]

Can’t see it being anything other than ‘A’ atm, due to global revenue and FFP.

Look how comparatively **** Man U have been over the last few years, yet they can still throw around huge wage bills to stay around the top, while churning out millions in interest payments for the Glazer’s almost 100% leveraged takeover.

If Fosun really can get us to catch on overseas, with on-field success breeding off-field and vice-versa, then yes I can see there being a ‘top 7’ or sneaking into the spot of any of the big clubs failing.
I’m sure this is what KT was referencing when talking about Spurs.
British people know they’ve been a big club historically, but not so much further afield until very recently since the prem went global.
The recent crop of young, exciting players, playing good football has propelled them into the global eye, and consequently further up the rich list.

I’d assume that’s what we’re after.

 

[glorybox]

European Super League hopefully.....

Bluffs need calling. Boils need lancing.

Sooner the better for me.

Would be happy for the big 6 to **** off to Europe full time so we can have a proper competitive EPL again.

 

[OscillatingWildly]

Would be happy for the big 6 to **** off to Europe full time so we can have a proper competitive EPL again.

I always think this is a bit of a myth.

1970-1979: 4 x titles for Liverpool
1980-1989: 6 x titles for Liverpool
1990-1999: 5 x titles for Man Utd

The idea that "anyone could win the league" doesn't quite ring true. Maybe theoretically they could, but what was borne out was that the dominant force at the time tended to actually win it.

Given no-one has retained the title in England since 2008/9 and we've had four different winners in the last decade, you would have to say there's more variance in our league than there is in Germany (Bayern have won every title since 2013) or Italy (Juventus since 2012), and arguably Spain too given that largely runs on the Barca/Real duopoly, although Atletico have been doing their level best to muscle in.

There have also been numerous times over the last couple of decades where people have said "the Big Four is impossible to break into" and yet teams do fall out of it over time. Spurs were a standing joke 15 years ago for example, had been for ages, and yet they haven't required a massive outside investment to become a regular top four team.

There are aspects to the Premier League that are unpalatable and it would be perverse to pretend right now that there isn't a gap between the top six and everyone else. But this isn't necessarily anything new, I don't see the point in hankering for a past which either didn't really exist or is so far back in the mists of time that it's an irrelevance.

 

[glorybox]

I always think this is a bit of a myth.

1970-1979: 4 x titles for Liverpool
1980-1989: 6 x titles for Liverpool
1990-1999: 5 x titles for Man Utd

The idea that "anyone could win the league" doesn't quite ring true. Maybe theoretically they could, but what was borne out was that the dominant force at the time tended to actually win it.

Given no-one has retained the title in England since 2008/9 and we've had four different winners in the last decade, you would have to say there's more variance in our league than there is in Germany (Bayern have won every title since 2013) or Italy (Juventus since 2012), and arguably Spain too given that largely runs on the Barca/Real duopoly, although Atletico have been doing their level best to muscle in.

There have also been numerous times over the last couple of decades where people have said "the Big Four is impossible to break into" and yet teams do fall out of it over time. Spurs were a standing joke 15 years ago for example, had been for ages, and yet they haven't required a massive outside investment to become a regular top four team.

There are aspects to the Premier League that are unpalatable and it would be perverse to pretend right now that there isn't a gap between the top six and everyone else. But this isn't necessarily anything new, I don't see the point in hankering for a past which either didn't really exist or is so far back in the mists of time that it's an irrelevance.

I take your point but a quick glance at the league's top 6 from say 2000 backwards shows a constantly changing top 6 albeit Man U, Liverpool and Arsenal were generally mainstays. Now it's rare for any team to break that top 6, which was a top 4 before Spurs and Man City joined in.

 

[Chris H]

I take your point but a quick glance at the league's top 6 from say 2000 backwards shows a constantly changing top 6 albeit Man U, Liverpool and Arsenal were generally mainstays. Now it's rare for any team to break that top 6, which was a top 4 before Spurs and Man City joined in.

What you've said is true, but is that not because it just used to be a top 3 or 4 and the fact its now a top 6 is more diverse in itself?

 

[ShropshireLad]

I have a feeling that both Arsenal and Spurs will be struggling to be in the top 6 this coming season. Arsenal have a new manager who likes old players and Spurs new ground could be a stumbling block for a couple of seasons.

Of course I could be wrong on both counts but I've staked my £5 with Jennings to be in the Top 6 so one of them is likely to miss out. Or me!

 

[Chungster]

I always think this is a bit of a myth.

1970-1979: 4 x titles for Liverpool
1980-1989: 6 x titles for Liverpool
1990-1999: 5 x titles for Man Utd

The idea that "anyone could win the league" doesn't quite ring true. Maybe theoretically they could, but what was borne out was that the dominant force at the time tended to actually win it.

Given no-one has retained the title in England since 2008/9 and we've had four different winners in the last decade, you would have to say there's more variance in our league than there is in Germany (Bayern have won every title since 2013) or Italy (Juventus since 2012), and arguably Spain too given that largely runs on the Barca/Real duopoly, although Atletico have been doing their level best to muscle in.

There have also been numerous times over the last couple of decades where people have said "the Big Four is impossible to break into" and yet teams do fall out of it over time. Spurs were a standing joke 15 years ago for example, had been for ages, and yet they haven't required a massive outside investment to become a regular top four team.

There are aspects to the Premier League that are unpalatable and it would be perverse to pretend right now that there isn't a gap between the top six and everyone else. But this isn't necessarily anything new, I don't see the point in hankering for a past which either didn't really exist or is so far back in the mists of time that it's an irrelevance.

Of course hegemony has always populated the upper reaches of football.

And yes, this has always been the source of frustration and consternation for those in the shallows.

But pre-Premier league I don’t remember anyone objecting to Liverpool’s dominance on any other grounds than their superior scouting, coaching, youth set-up and shrewd purchasing (and indeed on-selling) of talent. Liverpool were never prolific net spenders.

In short, we were envious of their boot room brains rather than their board room brawn.

Now, we have simply been one of many, waiting in line to waggle our scrawny provincial tushes in front of the latest oligarch to roll through town looking for a bit of rough trade or stumble on an overlooked diamond in the dirt.

Looks like we may have dropped lucky. Steak dinner and a soft bed for the night. Maybe a lot longer.

What I’m asking myself now is ‘at what cost’? Do I really want a place at that table? How shiny will that silver really be?

Because, and you’ll know this as well as I do, the terrain is very, very different when you’re pitching in with the high rollers.

I remember phoning a mate of mine, a battle-weary City fan of long-standing, as loyal and embittered as they come, shortly after the Aguero miracle-moment…the moment that every fan longs for – redemption mixed with a healthy slug of revenge. All those years of taunting, mockery, patronising belittlement at the hands of the evil nemesis. All over. Finished. Settled. Sweetness beyond words or measure.

When he answered the phone I expected to hear tears, primeval screams of cathartic release, furniture going through patio windows….

He picked up. It was eerily quiet.

“How does it feel?” I said. “The best ever surely….?”

“Don’t get me wrong,” he replied. “It’s good but it’s not as good as I dreamt it would be. It’s not 1968 good. It doesn’t feel the same any more. Football’s not the same any more.”

And that’s when it started with me……my footballing mid-life crisis…..questioning the actual quality and intrinsic value of what I was watching.

What if that was us? What if I ended up watching us win the Champions League final in the local British Legion, supping a pint of mild, because I had no chance of a ticket and probably couldn’t afford one even if I could get my hands on one.

What if that moment of moments was not even in the same division as watching us win a third tier trophy at Wembley in 1974? Because that was when football really mattered….when it was unsullied, undiluted, raw and truly, gloriously, outrageously beautiful. When it didn’t feel like I was paying through the nose to watch some grotesque corporate cartoon porn flick.

I know. It's just me isn't it?

Prozac is probably the answer.

 

[Sedgley Gold N Black]

Chelsea with the off the field stuff surrounding Abramovic, Arsenal post Wenger and Spurs with an expensive new home to pay for are all going to be quite vulnerable in the next few years.

It really depends though if anyone can stay with City though imo, I think Liverpool have gone about putting themselves in a good position and Utd obviously have the resources to match them if every they can realise how to put them to good use again post Fergie.

I think few will be desperately trying to hang on trying to use technicalities like FFP, the distribution of TV money or push for a European super league as they come under threat from new rivals to close the shop.

As for those rivals, I think Leicester blew their chance by selling Kante to Chelsea after winning the league, with him they could have qualified again for the CL imo which would have been just as huge as the league win itself in terms of breaking into the elite clubs.

West Ham just seem to think having a big ground and throwing money around without any plan is enough, which it isn’t as they all have a biggish ground and plenty of money. You’ve got to be smarter not just try and mimic them.

Everton’s interesting as they are trying to be smarter it seems but does Moshiri have the money to put Everton in the same league as the top 4-6? His net wealth suggests not.

That leaves one other, imo, who are going about things in a different way and are effectively the innovators at the moment, the disrupters, who are gaining a competitive edge through it but at the same time, which is unusual, have resources to potentially match anyone.

 

[Big Nosed Wolf]

I always think this is a bit of a myth.

1970-1979: 4 x titles for Liverpool
1980-1989: 6 x titles for Liverpool
1990-1999: 5 x titles for Man Utd

The idea that "anyone could win the league" doesn't quite ring true. Maybe theoretically they could, but what was borne out was that the dominant force at the time tended to actually win it.

Given no-one has retained the title in England since 2008/9 and we've had four different winners in the last decade, you would have to say there's more variance in our league than there is in Germany (Bayern have won every title since 2013) or Italy (Juventus since 2012), and arguably Spain too given that largely runs on the Barca/Real duopoly, although Atletico have been doing their level best to muscle in.

There have also been numerous times over the last couple of decades where people have said "the Big Four is impossible to break into" and yet teams do fall out of it over time. Spurs were a standing joke 15 years ago for example, had been for ages, and yet they haven't required a massive outside investment to become a regular top four team.

There are aspects to the Premier League that are unpalatable and it would be perverse to pretend right now that there isn't a gap between the top six and everyone else. But this isn't necessarily anything new, I don't see the point in hankering for a past which either didn't really exist or is so far back in the mists of time that it's an irrelevance.

Yes but although there was domination it was still about football.

Remember the formation of the PL was instigated by Greg Dyke who at that time was head of LWT. His approach to the 'big 5' was all about exclusive TV coverage for those five. He wanted only those clubs on TV as he wrote off the rest of the league as unimportant. He wanted to cherry pick, It was all about using football to promote TV and make money for said TV and the 'few'. This breakaway league -which became the PL - would only distribute the swag between those 'few'.

Then bring in the lamentable FA (whose blessing the 'few' wanted to make them 'credible') whose relationship with the FL had always been 'iffy' and they did just that, gave them their 'credibility.' The FA wanted the FL to become weaker and that was a major driving force.It was Arsenal's then chairman David Dein who approached the FA and held talks to check out their 'receptiveness'.

Enter the loss making (at that time) Sky who, with a bit of 'advice' from the supplier of the dishes for SKyTV Alan Sugar (would you believe it eh?) who came in with a bigger offer and hey presto, the game had been sold to make money for a few first and **** everyone else in the game. Supporters signed up their droves to this new 'revolution' and watched as the game became more and more corporate. The cost of attending games spiraled for them in spite of huge money coming in to the game. Club's and football is/are now used as vehicles for ego, corporate dick rubbing, TV ratings and increasingly, global politics above that which it used to be about. Something much more important. Local identity and genuine affinity between player, club and the Town/City to which they all belonged.

That's why at Molineux now there will be (by me at least) muted praise for any success. We have been forced to join in the gorging or stay a remote FL outfit. When those who could have done something about it the FA and FL put institutionalised vendetta above the good of the game. They stood by while the Pimps knocked seven colours of **** out of their dames, squeezing every drop of filthy coinage from them.

As good as the football might be (and lets not forget the growth of falling over on the pitch and the 'gamemanship')whatever is achieved by the club now will always be tainted by the brothel it now operates in.

Jez wasn't correct about many things and he himself looked after Jez first but one thing I did agree with him on was his statement about those at the 'top table' in the PL only caring about the 'chosen' few.

We need to get rid of the current hijackers but I've been saying that for years but it's like ****ing in the wind. In the end of course it's the fans who keep it going as much as anything else. If the majority stopped hoovering up the nonsense we might see some change for the better.

 

[OscillatingWildly]

That's the market we're in now (probably slightly inflated from these figures, as they're from 2016/17):

Illustrative of how things have moved on even since 2012. Back then we had Johnson, O'Hara and Doyle on around £40k a week, then a big gap back to the rest of the squad. Now an AVERAGE wage of £40k a week across your whole squad will see you in the bottom eight payers (we won't be this time, of course).