Manchester United or City? Ten Premier League title race pointers | Jamie Jackson

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<div class="track"><img alt="" src="http://hits.guardian.co.uk/b/ss/guardiangu-feeds/1/H.24.1.1/3979?ns=guardian&pageName=Manchester+United+or+City%3F+Ten+Premier+League+title+race+pointers+%7C+Jami%3AArticle%3A1730475&ch=Football&c3=Guardian&c4=Premier+League+2011-12%2CManchester+United+%28Football%29%2CManchester+City+%28Football%29%2CPremier+League+%28Football%29%2CFootball%2CSport&c5=Unclassified%2CPremier+League&c6=Jamie+Jackson&c7=12-Apr-12&c8=1730475&c9=Article&c10=Comment&c11=Football&c13=&c25=Sport+blog&c30=content&c42=Sport&h2=GU%2FSport%2FFootball%2FPremier+League+2011-12" width="1" height="1" /></div><p class="standfirst">Manchester United may be five points above Manchester City at the top of the table but a 20th title is far from guaranteed</p><h2>1) City's stuttering away form</h2><p>Roberto Mancini's stellar side have been dire away from home this calendar year. Of their 16 road-trips this season City have won just seven, drawn four and lost five, dropping 23 of a possible 48 points. Run through City's strongest XI this season and the record seems more damning: Joe Hart, Micah Richards, Vincent Kompany, Joleon Lescott, Gaël Clichy, Nigel de Jong, Gareth Barry, Samir Nasri, Yaya Touré, David Silva, and Sergio Agüero should have done better. They will hope for an improvement at Norwich City, at 12.45pm, on Saturday.</p><h2>2) United's bouncebackability</h2><p>One of Sir Alex Ferguson's most trusted mantras is how his serial-winning sides instantly return from a reverse. Immediately after United's defeat to Wigan Athletic – 1-0 on Wednesday – the Scot was at it again: "We have to get over the disappointment of tonight." At the turn of the year United lost 3-2 to Blackburn Rovers at Old Trafford then travelled to Newcastle United and were beaten 3-0. Ferguson will use this as motivation and remind his players how they cannot afford to lose a second league game on the bounce again.</p><h2>3) Mancini's risky mind games</h2><p>The Italian presented a poker-face following City's 4-0 win over West Bromwich Albion and United's defeat at Wigan, saying: "The title race is finished because United is a fantastic team and they have a fantastic spirit." Do not believe this – Mancini knows City are very much back in it, especially as they are at Norwich 24 hours before United host Aston Villa on Sunday, so a win for Agüero and company would pile the pressure on. Blues supporters will hope that Mancini informed his players what he was about to say, and why, otherwise his ploy to get under the skin of Ferguson and his squad could have a negative affect on his own band.</p><h2>4) Difficulty of respective run-ins</h2><p>United play Villa (home), Everton (h), City (away), Swansea City (h) and Sunderland (a). City's final five are Norwich (a), Wolverhampton Wanderers (a), United (h), Newcastle United (a), and Queens Park Rangers (h). Given City's poor record on the road, Mancini will be concerned that three of City's final matches are away from Manchester and that two of these are up next: any stumble and United stroll to a 20th championship.</p><h2>5) The Manchester derby</h2><p>This 163rd meeting will be a powder-keg occasion and Rio Ferdinand, Ryan Giggs, Wayne Rooney, Paul Scholes and the rest of the senior United players need no reminder of how the club was humiliated 6-1 in the reverse fixture this season. Even if the points gap is still five come 30 April, the derby could be a major factor in who wins the championship. Despite that victory in October, City's recent record is poor: only two league wins going back to 2002.</p><h2>6) Explosive nature of Tevez and Balotelli</h2><p>Carlos Tevez scored his first league goal for the club against West Bromwich, with the football brain and killer touches once again evident. But his six-month hiatus has hurt City, as have the mood swings of Mario Balotelli, whose genuine goal threat – he has 17 in 33 games – makes him so complicated to manage. The Italian could return for the United game after his three-match suspension. Perhaps Mancini's joke that United have "fantastic" spirit while his side do not was a message to the pair that now is payback time for the disruption caused this season.</p><h2>7) Rooney and United's 1-0 wins</h2><p>Ferguson's man-management can hardly be argued with so the sight of Wayne Rooney stewing on the bench, pulled off 10 minutes into the second half at Wigan, suggests his star man required a rocket ahead of the run-in. Rooney has 22 league goals and scored in United's previous outing, the 2-0 win over Queens Park Rangers on Sunday, so he hardly lacks form. Rooney will fume that he was replaced but the striker is now wise enough to know he is invaluable if United are going to squeeze the wins by the odd goal that are their hallmark. The club's 99 1-0 wins in the 20 seasons of the Premier League is second only to Chelsea's 101.</p><h2>8) Who will get the rub of the green?</h2><p>Until Wednesday recent fortune was with United. Danny Murphy was denied a penalty at Old Trafford when Michael Carrick felled him in the area, and United went on to beat Fulham 1-0 at the end of March. It was a similar situation against QPR on Sunday, after Shaun Derry was sent off and a penalty awarded despite Ashley Young going down when also starting from an offside position. At Wigan though, this luck turned. United had a case for Shaun Maloney's winner coming from a corner that should have been their goalkick, and they also had a clear penalty refused when Maynor Figueroa handled. As Ferguson said: "Last Sunday we got a break and it evens itself out over the season."</p><h2>9) Goal difference</h2><p>The 4-0 win over West Bromwich was not only a first league victory since Chelsea were defeated 2-1 three weeks ago but the margin allowed City to raise their goal difference above their rivals. The Blues' is +53 while United's is +50. If United slip up further then goal difference becomes worth an extra point if they end the campaign level. The Premier League has never been decided this way, but Mancini and Ferguson will tell their respective sides to pile on the goals if possible, just in case.</p><h2>10) City's 44-year psychological barrier</h2><p>This is a non-factor as the title is still United's to lose, so the ghosts of Mike Summerbee, Francis Lee and Colin Bell do not stalk Mancini's men. But if this changes, Hart, Richards, Barry and company could feel the excitement that 2012 could replace 1968 as the last time City were champions. If so, expect Ferguson to start mentioning pressure in dispatches, and Ferdinand, Rooney, Carrick et al to follow.</p><div class="related" style="float: left; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;"><ul><li><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/premier-league-2011-12">Premier League 2011-12</a></li><li><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/manchester-united">Manchester United</a></li><li><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/manchestercity">Manchester City</a></li><li><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/premierleague">Premier League</a></li></ul></div><div class="author"><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/jamiejackson">Jamie Jackson</a></div><br/><div class="terms"><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk">guardian.co.uk</a> &copy; 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. 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