Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

[Phitsanulok (Poole) Wolf]

Having plenty of time on my hands at present, I was interested in seeing which players starting a match were part of the most successful line-ups. For instance, Matt Hill has started 5 games in which we secured a total of 11 points (three wins and two draws). His average points for game started therefore is 2.20 points. Conversely in the 26 games he did not start in the points gain was 52 giving an average of 2.00 points. A loose deduction is that we gain marginally more points when Hill starts than when he doesn’t.

This is of course just statistics and when players have started very few times the results are skewed. For instance you could say when Reid and Vokes start we always get 3 points and when Quashie and Friend start we always lose. More interesting are the results of players with more starts through the season.

From that we can take a view that we gain more points when Ikeme plays instead of
Hennessey.
We get a marginally better return when Iwelumo starts than when Keogh starts.

More significantly in my view are the statistics from Jones and Edwards. Jones starting gives a 2.26 points average return but Edwards starting gives only 1.27 points average. Jarvis is also a rather disappointing 1.69 and I wasn’t surprised by any of these findings. The players who have started the most games are obviously close to our average return with Kightly Foley, Blake and, surprisingly to some, Collins scoring well.
Hopefully I haven’t made too many mistakes.
Here is the full chart: I’ll get me tin hat ready

*********Starts*****In*****Out
Reid******1 start - 3.00 in ** 2.00 out
Vokes*****1 start - 3.00 in ** 2.00 out
Gray***** 4 starts - 2.50 in ** 1.96 out
Elokobi*** 3 starts - 2.33 in ** 2.00 out
Jones**** 23 starts - 2.26 in ** 1.37 out
Ikeme**** 12 starts - 2.25 in ** 1.89 out
Looms**** 18 starts - 2.22 in ** 1.84 out
Hill****** 5 starts - 2.20 in ** 2.00 out
Kites***** 29 starts - 2.14 in ** 0.50 out
Mancienne * 8 starts - 2.13 in ** 2.00 out
Foley***** 30 starts - 2.10 in ** 0.00 out
Collins*** 20 starts - 2.10 in ** 2.27 out
Blake **** 30 starts - 2.10 in ** 0.00 out
Craddock** 4 starts - 2 00 in ** 2.03 out
Shackell*** 3 starts - 2.00 in ** 2.03 out
Henry***** 30 starts - 2.00 in **3.00 out
Stearman** 29 starts - 1.97 in ** 3.00 out
Ward***** 27 starts - 1.96 in ** 2.50 out
Keogh**** 14 starts - 1.93 in ** 2.11 out
Henners*** 19 starts - 1.89 in ** 2.25 out
Carlos**** 5 starts - 1.80 in ** 2.07 out
Jarvis*** 13 starts - 1.69 in ** 2.27 out
Edwards** 11 starts - 1.27 in ** 2.45 out
Quashie** 1 start - 0.00 in ** 2.10 out
Friend*** 1 start - 0.00 in ** 2.10 out

 

[glasgowwolf]

Really interesting.....

 

[Edgmond Wolf]

Not sure it actually means anything other than you had time to burn??

I still know who I want to play on saturday without all this...?

 

[GoldenHorseshoe]

Basically, never start Edwards, always start Jones.
Get big Chris back in.

 

[Edgmond Wolf]

Basically, never start Edwards, always start Jones.
Get big Chris back in.

Thats statistics for you......

Iwelumo has gone off the boil.....so we need to start either Keogh or Vokes...(Please let this thread just run as is and NOT become another Keogh thread)

Yes Jones in the middle provided he does not go missing...

Edwards seems to do better when he comes off the bench and puts that energy to good use...the same might be said of Vokes....wonder sub but tires if he starts...

 

[kford wolf]

Thank you for posting this Poole - can't beat a good stat.

 

[glasgowwolf]

Thats statistics for you......

Iwelumo has gone off the boil.....so we need to start either Keogh or Vokes...(Please let this thread just run as is and NOT become another Keogh thread)

Yes Jones in the middle provided he does not go missing...

Edwards seems to do better when he comes off the bench and puts that energy to good use...the same might be said of Vokes....wonder sub but tires if he starts...

Edgmond agree with you

 

[WolvesAreBoringOnCeefax]

Although stats can be stated to prove whatever point you want, this does seem to have at least some significance, you can't disagree with the fact that Jones and Edwards have had numerous starts each, and when Jones plays we gain many more points.. however, it doesn't take into account the other players on the pitch at the time, which is why it's only of limited use. I could be in a winning team if the other 10 players were world superstars, and equally Kaka might well be on the losing side if his teammates were all Sunday League standard. Cheers for posting it.

 

[Atlas 1951]

Although stats can be stated to prove whatever point you want, this does seem to have at least some significance, you can't disagree with the fact that Jones and Edwards have had numerous starts each, and when Jones plays we gain many more points.. however, it doesn't take into account the other players on the pitch at the time, which is why it's only of limited use. I could be in a winning team if the other 10 players were world superstars, and equally Kaka might well be on the losing side if his teammates were all Sunday League standard. Cheers for posting it.

If you've got any more free time, Poole Wolf, I think it would be very instructive to see a similar table, but using partnerships, rather than individual players. Centre-half, centre-forward and central midfield partnerships, right-wing/right-back, left-wing/left-back and also right-wing/left wing. Then again, I suppose that most of these partnerships have one player close to ever-present.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Thank you for posting this Poole - can't beat a good stat.

And yet you don't like me, what an odd world we live in.

As for the stats, it's instructive enough in showing that Jarvis isn't as influential as a lot of people think, we generally do fine without him, we struggle mostly without Kightly, both this season and last, despite the stick he seems to be increasingly attracting.

 

[djackl]

This stat, while impressive, is of incredibly dubious value to say the least.

 

[Phitsanulok (Poole) Wolf]

Actually I've been a bit unkind to Edwards he should be 1.55 in and 2.30 out. But he still keeps the same position. The pairings are self evident in a sense because Foley, Stearman, Kightly, Henry and Ebanks-Blake always play so the differences are in who pairs with them at Full Back, Central Defence, Midfield, Wing or Up-Front. Keeper is the only position you can make a direct comparison.

 

[arthur williams]

Thanks for that, perhaps if you still have enough time on your hands, you might be able to do the same exercise but showing certain pairings.

For instance, Blake/Iwelumo, Collins/Stearman Jarvis/Kightley etc etc

 

[Phitsanulok (Poole) Wolf]

The statistics have born out my gut instinct that Jones is needed for creativity, Edwards can be a liability when he starts and Jarvis is an impact player. Also some of the supporting cast such as Gray and Hill have made decent contributions without looking like they would set the world on fire.
Vokes, Reid, Quashie, Shackell and Friend have not had a chance really this season.

 

[Atlas 1951]

As for the stats, it's instructive enough in showing that Jarvis isn't as influential as a lot of people think, we generally do fine without him, we struggle mostly without Kightly, both this season and last, despite the stick he seems to be increasingly attracting.

But seven assists in thirteen starts would suggest a much greater influence. His good work in matches such as Bristol City (A), Blackpool (A) and Norwich (H) was undone by poor defending.

 

[Dewsburywolf]

equally Kaka might well be on the losing side if his teammates were all Sunday League standard.

So that's why he didn't sign for Citeh.

 

[WolvesAreBoringOnCeefax]

:d

 

[Neptune]

took me a while to figure out who Looms was

aside from who else is in the team, these numbers are also skewed by who the oppponent is (mostly for those with fewer appearances)

If Hill has only started against lesser competition, while Quashie has only started away to Reading, then numbers would be affected by this

Still, thanks Poole. This was...diverting

 

[WolvesAreBoringOnCeefax]

We need to rate the opposition and the class of the other players in the team at the time, and then scale that into the calculation for each game using an elaborate equation and then average these scores to compare them accurately... piece of cake.

 

[Phitsanulok (Poole) Wolf]

After Burnley game:

*********Starts*****In*****Out
Reid******1 start - 3.00 in ** 1.87 out
Gray***** 4 starts - 2.50 in ** 1.83 out
Elokobi*** 3 starts - 2.33 in ** 1.86 out
Jones**** 23 starts - 2.26 in ** 1.10 out
Ikeme**** 12 starts - 2.25 in ** 1.71 out
Hill****** 5 starts - 2.20 in ** 1.85 out
Iwelumo** 18 starts - 2.17 in ** 1.84 out
Mancienne * 8 starts - 2.13 in ** 2.00 out
Kites***** 31 starts - 2.00 in ** 0.50 out
Craddock** 4 starts - 2 00 in ** 1.89 out
Shackell*** 3 starts - 2.00 in ** 1.90 out
Foley***** 32 starts – 1.97 in ** 0.00 out
Blake **** 32 starts – 1.97 in ** 0.00 out
Collins*** 20 starts – 1.95 in ** 1.85 out
Keogh**** 14 starts - 1.93 in ** 1.89 out
Ward***** 29 starts - 1.90 in ** 2.00 out
Henry***** 32 starts – 1.88 in **3.00 out
Stearman** 31 starts - 1.84 in ** 3.00 out
Carlos**** 5 starts - 1.80 in ** 1.92 out
Henners*** 21 starts - 1.71 in ** 2.25 out
Edwards** 11 starts - 1.55 in ** 2.09 out
Vokes*****2 start – 1.50 in ** 1.93 out
Jarvis*** 15 starts - 1.47 in ** 2.27 out
Berra****2 starts – 0.00 in ** 2.03 out
Friend*** 1 start - 0.00 in ** 1.96 out
Quashie** 3 starts - 0.00 in ** 2.10 out

Jones absence (we get far less points when he doesn't start) and Jarvis and Quashie's presence reflected clearly.

 

[UNCLE REMUS]

Most telling statistic we have 7 points from 9 games. Absolute relegation fodder.

Regardless of who plays.

 

[cookie]

Poole- did you read my post the other day? I used the lies, damn lies quote.
Fair play mate0- wonderful quote isn't it. Good old Mr Benjamin Disraeli!

 

[molineux man]

Most telling statistic we have 7 points from 9 points. Absolute relegation fodder.

Regardless of who plays.

I wish we did have 7 points from 9 points

 

[Hatch End Wolf]

7 points from a possible 27. Much, much worse!!!

 

[Bevan]

We might be in relegation form, but fortunately we cannot get relegated. Whatever happens the worst that can happen is we'll still be in the Championship next season.

 

[16Matt16]

Now thats a relief!