Lack of goals in many teams.

[theweave]

Has 5 subs mads a difference this season ? able to throw on fresh defenders ?
Opposition can put on more attacking players too, but guess they won't in general be the top quality ones ?

I think the fact that on the whole players are fitter and faster than they used to be so more able to get back and defend , or can break faster from defense means in general its much less common for teams to get attackers outnumbering defenders very often in games

Don't think it's changing the defenders, more likely replacing midfielders. Who in previous years wouldn't have been able to track back later in games

 

[tamwolf]

Yep. I don't watch any team other than Wolves these days. Would honestly rather watch songs of praise than Forest v Bournemouth.

Forest V Bournemouth would probably be a decent game as neither team can defend.

 

[NorthWolf]

Also this pulling players down when they make a break, the take one for the team crap, is stopping quite a few goals being scored on the break.

This coupled with five subs means that the yellow card for doing it is even less of a deterrent.

 

[Wolf in the Lions' Den]

From Mat Osman (brother of Richard, bassist of Suede and Palace fan) today:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1642829453779693571

Pretty accurate, I thought, though I can't bear to compulsively check relegation rivals' forums when we've lost!

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

Best thread on the Mix for some time imo. WolfLing brilliant analysis above. Well worth reading for those that missed it. It really has brought home to me the massive importance a reliable goal scorer is to a team. They really don't exist much anymore tbh. The way the game is now the 20 goal a season striker is perhaps over (bar freaks like Haarland) so teams like Wolves need a 10-12 goal a season man up top complimented by 3 or 4 others chipping in with a few each. Whilst this doesn't seem much it would have moved us up from a relegation candidate to perhaps 7th or 8th. I look forward to reading more on this thread as it develops further.

 

[Bryce]

And conceding goals loses games. Which way do you think is easier to control?

Throw eight bodies forward to try and score

Throw eight bodies back and try to stop the opposition

You play to your strengths then.
3 at the back
Lemina holding
Semedo Nunes Neves RAN/Bueno
Cunha/Podence Costa /Raul

Traore Neto Hwang when fit off the bench
Boubacar Moutinho to give fresh kegs last 20 yo shore up the games .

Not difficult and far more in tune with how this squad was built and their strengths

 

[Sussex Wolf]

Modern footballing tactics come from the ethos that having possession of the ball means that the opposition can't score.

Which is a sound concept. But it relies on being able to do something with the possession of the ball.

Our success under Nuno was heavily reliant on defending soundly as a unit, with very little possession of the ball, then explosively counter-attacking when the opportunity arose. By doing that, we conceded a lot of shots on our own goal, which was countered by a third covering centre-back to block a lot of these efforts (Coady) and a very good shot-stopping goalkeeper who rarely left his goal-line (Patricio).

By doing that, you are catching the opposition out of shape defensively and relying on fast-paced, high tempo counter attacks to score your goals. It's what people refer to when they talk about 'transitions'. Effectively one team turning-over possession.

Looking at the most successful teams in the PL recently....

Liverpool's success was built on a mixture of possession-based football and high-pressing/counter attacking to win the ball back quickly, high up the pitch, and then attack in the transition phase.

All the players have to work very hard to make this successful. You have to have the right players to do that and it took Klopp a few seasons to get there. Very few teams can copy this style, as you need to plan for a while to get to the point where the squad can cope with the demands. Then if you don't refresh the squad, the demands catch up with you, as Liverpool are finding this season.

Man City's success is built on slower-tempo build-up play with a lot of possession and intricate movement in the final third to create opportunities. To do this, teams are reliant on high-quality attacking players who will make their possession count in the final third. Similar to Arsenal this season too.

We are one of a number of sides who now try and play the same way as the possession, slow-tempo based top clubs, but without the same quality they have in the forward areas. Over the course of a season, doing this means it's highly likely that you will underperform teams playing the same way, with better quality.

But there's also not a lot of mileage long-term playing the Nuno style. One bad season where it doesn't click and all of a sudden, you're in trouble. Everton this season would be a good example of a very low average possession side for whom it hasn't clicked going forward, which leaves you a little bit exposed.

We saw under Nuno. Against teams that came and attacked us, often the better sides, we could pick them off using the space they left in behind. Against the poorer sides, who let us have the ball and defended deep as a unit, we really struggled.

We are almost in a similar predicament now. Teams know we struggle to create anything, so are happy to let us knock it around, get ourselves out of shape, then just pick us off in the transition.

Our average possession this season has been the highest since our PL return.

We've had more than 60% possession in 7 league games so far this season....

Leeds Away - 60% - Loss
Bournemouth Away - 66% - Draw
West Ham Away - 61% - Loss
Leicester Home - 61% - Loss
Bournemouth Home - 68% - Loss
Leeds Home - 66% - Loss
Forest Away - 72% - Draw

If we have too much of the ball at the moment, we're doomed!

But possession-based football is still probably a better long-term strategy than Nuno-ball and the downside probably isn't as low.

Playing in a way where your team is comfortable on the ball and good at maintaining possession means if you do stumble upon the right attacking formula, the foundations for success are already there.

Partly what has seen Arsenal go from 8th, 8th, 5th under Arteta's previous 2 and a half seasons, to probably winning the league this season, certainly a minimum of runners-up.

But I think teams like Brighton in previous seasons and Chelsea this season have also struggled from the same issues we have. They have good technical players who are very comfortable on the ball, but they just haven't cracked that attacking formula to turn the possession into goals. So it leads to a decrease in overall goals, as teams struggle to convert their possession into goals. The more possession they have without scoring, the fewer they will concede too, so a double whammy.

But as Newcastle (10th highest average possession), Fulham (11th highest average possession) and Brighton (2nd highest average possession) have proven this season, once you crack it, the upside is very high.

Generally speaking, the teams with the lowest average possession are the teams who struggle.

Bournemouth 20th possession, 16th
Forest 19th possession, 15th
Palace 17th possession, 12th
West Ham 16th possession, 14th
Everton 15th possession, 18th
Southampton 14th possession, 20th

Leicester and Brentford are the real outliers. Leicester 8th highest average possession in the league, sitting 19th, and Brentford 18th for possession, but sitting 7th in the league.

We are 7th for highest average possession, in the top 10 with the Sky 6, Newcastle, Brighton and Leicester. We just need to find the formula to do something with that possession!

Great post, and agree. I think for a while in February we looked to have really good attacking spells, with the kind of movement which opened up defences, and we even started scoring a little more. But it couldn’t be sustained for an entire game, and since JL started chopping and changing starting 11’s it seems to have vanished all together.

 

[CelebrityWolf]

You play to your strengths then.
3 at the back
Lemina holding
Semedo Nunes Neves RAN/Bueno
Cunha/Podence Costa /Raul

Traore Neto Hwang when fit off the bench
Boubacar Moutinho to give fresh kegs last 20 yo shore up the games .

Not difficult and far more in tune with how this squad was built and their strengths

Three at the back is a problem though. Our full backs just don't produce and in that system they have to. RAN is easily the most productive going forward but is being frozen out. Semedo is about as productive as Sa from an attacking standpoint.

 

[CelebrityWolf]

So we are playing for a 0-0 then every game?

Reminds me of the Hoddle days,

Ask most fans I would rather see attacking football and loose a few and win a few maybe 4-3 & 3-2 than the bore fest it is now. Look back to Bruno first 3 games everything one was so happy and we lost 2 and drew 1. We was on the front foot all the time.

I don't disagree. I was just stating how managers see it.

 

[Werewolf of Wombourne]

Under Nuno wasn't we toward the bottom for possession yet 7th in the league.

I know which one I would take now.

Funny, though, I remember that being the main criticism of Nuno. That we didn't have much possession

 

[WickedWolfie]

Modern footballing tactics come from the ethos that having possession of the ball means that the opposition can't score.

Which is a sound concept. But it relies on being able to do something with the possession of the ball.

Our success under Nuno was heavily reliant on defending soundly as a unit, with very little possession of the ball, then explosively counter-attacking when the opportunity arose. By doing that, we conceded a lot of shots on our own goal, which was countered by a third covering centre-back to block a lot of these efforts (Coady) and a very good shot-stopping goalkeeper who rarely left his goal-line (Patricio).

By doing that, you are catching the opposition out of shape defensively and relying on fast-paced, high tempo counter attacks to score your goals. It's what people refer to when they talk about 'transitions'. Effectively one team turning-over possession.

Looking at the most successful teams in the PL recently....

Liverpool's success was built on a mixture of possession-based football and high-pressing/counter attacking to win the ball back quickly, high up the pitch, and then attack in the transition phase.

All the players have to work very hard to make this successful. You have to have the right players to do that and it took Klopp a few seasons to get there. Very few teams can copy this style, as you need to plan for a while to get to the point where the squad can cope with the demands. Then if you don't refresh the squad, the demands catch up with you, as Liverpool are finding this season.

Man City's success is built on slower-tempo build-up play with a lot of possession and intricate movement in the final third to create opportunities. To do this, teams are reliant on high-quality attacking players who will make their possession count in the final third. Similar to Arsenal this season too.

We are one of a number of sides who now try and play the same way as the possession, slow-tempo based top clubs, but without the same quality they have in the forward areas. Over the course of a season, doing this means it's highly likely that you will underperform teams playing the same way, with better quality.

But there's also not a lot of mileage long-term playing the Nuno style. One bad season where it doesn't click and all of a sudden, you're in trouble. Everton this season would be a good example of a very low average possession side for whom it hasn't clicked going forward, which leaves you a little bit exposed.

We saw under Nuno. Against teams that came and attacked us, often the better sides, we could pick them off using the space they left in behind. Against the poorer sides, who let us have the ball and defended deep as a unit, we really struggled.

We are almost in a similar predicament now. Teams know we struggle to create anything, so are happy to let us knock it around, get ourselves out of shape, then just pick us off in the transition.

Our average possession this season has been the highest since our PL return.

We've had more than 60% possession in 7 league games so far this season....

Leeds Away - 60% - Loss
Bournemouth Away - 66% - Draw
West Ham Away - 61% - Loss
Leicester Home - 61% - Loss
Bournemouth Home - 68% - Loss
Leeds Home - 66% - Loss
Forest Away - 72% - Draw

If we have too much of the ball at the moment, we're doomed!

But possession-based football is still probably a better long-term strategy than Nuno-ball and the downside probably isn't as low.

Playing in a way where your team is comfortable on the ball and good at maintaining possession means if you do stumble upon the right attacking formula, the foundations for success are already there.

Partly what has seen Arsenal go from 8th, 8th, 5th under Arteta's previous 2 and a half seasons, to probably winning the league this season, certainly a minimum of runners-up.

But I think teams like Brighton in previous seasons and Chelsea this season have also struggled from the same issues we have. They have good technical players who are very comfortable on the ball, but they just haven't cracked that attacking formula to turn the possession into goals. So it leads to a decrease in overall goals, as teams struggle to convert their possession into goals. The more possession they have without scoring, the fewer they will concede too, so a double whammy.

But as Newcastle (10th highest average possession), Fulham (11th highest average possession) and Brighton (2nd highest average possession) have proven this season, once you crack it, the upside is very high.

Generally speaking, the teams with the lowest average possession are the teams who struggle.

Bournemouth 20th possession, 16th
Forest 19th possession, 15th
Palace 17th possession, 12th
West Ham 16th possession, 14th
Everton 15th possession, 18th
Southampton 14th possession, 20th

Leicester and Brentford are the real outliers. Leicester 8th highest average possession in the league, sitting 19th, and Brentford 18th for possession, but sitting 7th in the league.

We are 7th for highest average possession, in the top 10 with the Sky 6, Newcastle, Brighton and Leicester. We just need to find the formula to do something with that possession!

Re your penultimate para Leicester never replaced Vardy and Brentford have been able to continue playing Toney... The big difference between the two teams. Sadly we are more in the Leicester camp....

 

[WolfLing]

Re your penultimate para Leicester never replaced Vardy and Brentford have been able to continue playing Toney... The big difference between the two teams. Sadly we are more in the Leicester camp....

Yeah, Vardy 36 and Daka nowhere near as effective. It's not just Vardy, Leicester's recruitment and contract renewals all round have been terrible.

Never replaced Schmeichel, a very underrated goalkeeper.

Best central defenders (Evans & Soyuncu) and best central midfielder (Tielemans) all out of contract this summer.

Most effective players overall (Maddison) due to be sold this summer.

If they do manage to stay up this season, I think the writing is on the wall for next.

Leicester and Liverpool this season showing that keeping the same players and improving their contracts long-term just doesn't really work. They get the the point where what they are paid is too much based on their value to the team.

It's why if we stay up we must have a huge clear-out.

And yeah, take Toney out of Brentford and I think they really struggle. Still have a small hope it will be us that takes him off their hands!

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

The resoundingly clear evidence from this thread is that splashing the cash on a decent CF (if you can find one), or produce a Robbie Keane or get lucky with someone cheap like Bully, is the difference between fighting relegation or top half. Assuming we stay up (?) I'd spend a big % of the income from sales this summer and focus on one decent striker (again if we can find one). Imv with a 10-15 goal a season striker we have enough quality in those remaining - Dawson, Bueno, Gomes, Lemina, B Traore, Neto to certainly aim for top 10 next season.

 

[Superted]

I agree with this and also think it is mental, like the points scoring was changed to stop this from being a thing and it is still a thing!

Do we need to go to 0.5 points for a draw and 5 for a win?

Bonus point for scoring 3+ goals should do it.

In speedway you used to get an extra point for an away win, 4 rather than 3 (home advantage is even more important), and you got bonus points for winning by a greater margin of points which was also a greater or lesser margin depending on whether you were home or away. It was very complicated but seemed to work reasonably well.

They've changed it this year to an even more complicated system where you get a bonus point for winning on aggregate over the home and away fixtures and if you're level you have a super heat to decide who gets the bonus point.

That would be quite funny (apart from for us Wolves fans as we're useless at penalties), to have a penalty shoot out after the second fixture to decide who gets the bonus point.

 

[clivewolves]

Make the goals bigger or limit the size of goalkeepers to being no taller than Podence.

 

[wwbug]

Does this just prove that to do well you have to score . Having no natural goalscorer that is fit or capable doesn’t help .

 

[wwbug]

Perhaps we make another step towards attacking football . 4 points for a win !

 

[Eastyorksyeltz]

Perhaps we make another step towards attacking football . 4 points for a win !

I suspect many within the contemporary game would simply see it as "more to lose" and play even more defensively.

 

[Gasman]

Also this pulling players down when they make a break, the take one for the team crap, is stopping quite a few goals being scored on the break.

This coupled with five subs means that the yellow card for doing it is even less of a deterrent.

Yeah professional fouls like this need a sin bin imv.

 

[Abbobrom]

In my initial post I listed the games played by the bottom ten and the goals scored.

After this week's matches 288 have been played and 277 goals scored.

There was a gap of eleven, exactly the same as today. None of this bottom group are scoring the number off goals to be certain of staying up.

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

In my initial post I listed the games played by the bottom ten and the goals scored.

After this week's matches 288 have been played and 277 goals scored.

There was a gap of eleven, exactly the same as today. None of this bottom group are scoring the number off goals to be certain of staying up.

Nothing will change this season. None of the bottom sides will rarely score more than 1 so defence imo is key to holding on for a narrow win or a draw. Of the 9 bottom sides only Palace, WHU (unbelievably after tonight!) and Everton have conceded less than us and all the other 5 considerably more. The fact that we can keep the goals out, and after this weeks results, gives me more hope now that we can beat the drop.

 

[Wolf in the Lions' Den]

On MOTD they had the stat that our last 12 PL goals have all been scored by different players. It seemed remarkable (not necessarily remarkably good!) so I had to look them up myself. It must include the two OGs by Bednarek and Matip, as the previous goal was Podence against Wet Spam:

Nunes, Podence, Cunha, Jonny, Hwang, Adama, Sarabia, Joao Gomes, Bednarek OG, Neves, Dawson, Matip OG.

Would love to see Costa, Raul and Neto join that list before the end of the season!

 

[Jay Jay de Wolf]

It's great that we Wolves are mathematically safe now
But if Southampton score another goal against Forest we will be joint lowest scorer's in the PL with them a this moment in time
That surely tells a tale of our season with the lack or shortage of goals

 

[Jay Jay de Wolf]

No lack of goals today in Premier League games 18 goals and still counting in the 3 PL games so far

 

[Jay Jay de Wolf]

It's great that we Wolves are mathematically safe now
But if Southampton score another goal against Forest we will be joint lowest scorer's in the PL with them a this moment in time
That surely tells a tale of our season with the lack or shortage of goals

Southampton have scored another against Forest making us joint lowest scorers in the PL with them now

 

[old wittonian]

Southampton have scored another against Forest making us joint lowest scorers in the PL with them now

We must be doing something right. We've got 40 points thus far and can't be relegated.

 

[Jay Jay de Wolf]

It's great that we Wolves are mathematically safe now
But if Southampton score another goal against Forest we will be joint lowest scorer's in the PL with them a this moment in time
That surely tells a tale of our season with the lack or shortage of goals

We must be doing something right. We've got 40 points thus far and can't be relegated.

Yes @old wittonian credit where it's due to our defensive performance's of our team there with 4 clean sheets in last 4 home games
Has seen us safe thankfully but doubt if we'll get away with us being the lowest scorers in PL next season and stay up

 

[Me Babbies]

Bonus point for scoring 3+ goals should do it.

How's about 1 point for a 0:0 draw but 2 points for a score draw.

Or even a penalty shootout at the end of every league game for a bonus point?

 

[WolfInSheep'sClothing]

I think its the patient style of football many teams have chosen to play. Keep the ball for the sake of keeping the ball and hope the goals come. Managers trying to get teams to play perfectionist football and games becoming as dull as dishwater.
I mean the 4 goals we scored under Lage first part of the season were really nice when they came, but there were only 4 of them in 12 games.

 

[Ned]

I wonder whether players being such athletes nowadays has had an impact, sides can get back into their defensive shape so much faster and pace is usually a feature of at least 1 player in a back line to stop breaks.

Barring that, teams build from the back and are happy to manage games by falling over and rolling around injured. I wonder whether you could make a rule that all initial assessments and subsequent treatment (other than the genuine bad injuries) have to be off the pitch or when play is going on.

 

[WickedWolfie]

How's about 1 point for a 0:0 draw but 2 points for a score draw.

Or even a penalty shootout at the end of every league game for a bonus point?

Great, the increasing "Yankification" of the game would continue. Just because bloody basketball and ice hockey have stupidly high scores that doesn't mean that a 0-0 draw in "soccer" is either undesirable or unentertaining.