cannockwolves
Just doesn't shut up
- Joined
- Jun 30, 2005
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We have all spoke about the age-old question of who has more fans and what is our potential. Well, I have an answer, but before I start I want to issue a note of caution.
Market Research is not perfect and as we have seen in elections making predictions on small sample sizes can be risky, but in the absence of anything else governments, businesses, and football clubs use research to inform strategic decisions.
Now for the interesting bit.
I have worked in Data and Data analysis roles for more than twenty years and I have access to certain tools and pooled market research data. I don’t want to go into too much detail about what it is, but trust me when I say lots of major businesses buy into this research package and it’s about as good as it gets (but not perfect)
I have been playing with a tool that gives me access to thousands of data points, and one of these data elements relates to ‘Sports Team Followed’ This is an unprompted research question which basically means people are not given a list to choose from, they have to say which teams comes into their head first.
The beauty of this research is the small samples can be statistically grossed up to give an indication of ‘Market Size’ – in this case, how big the market researchers believe the different levels of support each team can call, and I have to say there are some interesting results.
I am not going to publish detail tables but will give you some headlines.
Firstly as you would expect Manchester United have the biggest support in the UK (estimated at just under 8m supporters), Liverpool are next at just over 5m). Then Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Newcastle United are followed by West Ham (with an estimated fan base of 1.7m supporters across the country!). Interestingly Manchester City are 8th just under the Hammers. I have to say the Hammers surprised me.
Everton have an estimate of 1.1m fans, Southampton 700k and our lads – Wolves have an estimated fan base of 690,000. Remember this is based on market research where people have self-volunteered the sports team they support and then these samples have been statistically grossed up based on populations.
What is interesting is when you look back a year ago our support was estimated at 600,000 fans so maybe the premier league factor is working as we are seeing a fairly dramatic growth?
Outside the Premier League, there are some interesting results. The research puts Leeds on 1.5m fans (more than double ourselves). The two Glasgow clubs are about the same as Leeds (with Rangers having a slight edge).
Then there is our European cup winning neighbours, estimated to have just under 1.1m fans. So yes the researchers at a well-known market research company believe they are the biggest club in the Midlands, but not double or treble the size of Wolves as some of their knuckle draggers would have you believe.
What has surprised me is Forrest and Norwich. Based on this research both have considerably bigger fan bases than Wolves at about 850,000 fans! As you move down the list there are not many surprises – Portsmouth, Bristol, Reading, and even Swansea are considered bigger than the Albion (who have 300,000 fewer fans than Wolves!) Coventry are bigger than Blues.
I am not making any big claims to the accuracy of this research, the methodology is sound and big companies use this sort of stuff to make big decisions, but I accept there is a very big difference with people identifying as supporting a club and actually buying a ticket (Reading is a very good example where some geographical affiliation is not matched by a tradition of going to the game).
But this research does give you some broad sense of scale and in Wolves case a direction of travel. Premier League exposure is making more people (who are taking research questionnaires) to think about the Wolves as their team.
It really would not surprise me at all if Laurie and his advisors have not used research like this to inform the stadium capacity proposals, without it you only have gut feel.
Market Research is not perfect and as we have seen in elections making predictions on small sample sizes can be risky, but in the absence of anything else governments, businesses, and football clubs use research to inform strategic decisions.
Now for the interesting bit.
I have worked in Data and Data analysis roles for more than twenty years and I have access to certain tools and pooled market research data. I don’t want to go into too much detail about what it is, but trust me when I say lots of major businesses buy into this research package and it’s about as good as it gets (but not perfect)
I have been playing with a tool that gives me access to thousands of data points, and one of these data elements relates to ‘Sports Team Followed’ This is an unprompted research question which basically means people are not given a list to choose from, they have to say which teams comes into their head first.
The beauty of this research is the small samples can be statistically grossed up to give an indication of ‘Market Size’ – in this case, how big the market researchers believe the different levels of support each team can call, and I have to say there are some interesting results.
I am not going to publish detail tables but will give you some headlines.
Firstly as you would expect Manchester United have the biggest support in the UK (estimated at just under 8m supporters), Liverpool are next at just over 5m). Then Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Newcastle United are followed by West Ham (with an estimated fan base of 1.7m supporters across the country!). Interestingly Manchester City are 8th just under the Hammers. I have to say the Hammers surprised me.
Everton have an estimate of 1.1m fans, Southampton 700k and our lads – Wolves have an estimated fan base of 690,000. Remember this is based on market research where people have self-volunteered the sports team they support and then these samples have been statistically grossed up based on populations.
What is interesting is when you look back a year ago our support was estimated at 600,000 fans so maybe the premier league factor is working as we are seeing a fairly dramatic growth?
Outside the Premier League, there are some interesting results. The research puts Leeds on 1.5m fans (more than double ourselves). The two Glasgow clubs are about the same as Leeds (with Rangers having a slight edge).
Then there is our European cup winning neighbours, estimated to have just under 1.1m fans. So yes the researchers at a well-known market research company believe they are the biggest club in the Midlands, but not double or treble the size of Wolves as some of their knuckle draggers would have you believe.
What has surprised me is Forrest and Norwich. Based on this research both have considerably bigger fan bases than Wolves at about 850,000 fans! As you move down the list there are not many surprises – Portsmouth, Bristol, Reading, and even Swansea are considered bigger than the Albion (who have 300,000 fewer fans than Wolves!) Coventry are bigger than Blues.
I am not making any big claims to the accuracy of this research, the methodology is sound and big companies use this sort of stuff to make big decisions, but I accept there is a very big difference with people identifying as supporting a club and actually buying a ticket (Reading is a very good example where some geographical affiliation is not matched by a tradition of going to the game).
But this research does give you some broad sense of scale and in Wolves case a direction of travel. Premier League exposure is making more people (who are taking research questionnaires) to think about the Wolves as their team.
It really would not surprise me at all if Laurie and his advisors have not used research like this to inform the stadium capacity proposals, without it you only have gut feel.
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