Fabio Silva

[Contrarian]

You can't see it but the experts can.

So there's these experts who can spot football skills that ordinary people can't? Cool! So what do they say about Vitinha? Ait-Noiri? Corbeanu? Semedo? Lets use the power of these experts, it will cut out all the risk as they can tell us how good a player is without anybody having to see them play.

Are these experts seeing things that we can't see with Cutrone, too? We need to know. Get him back and give him time if they are. Sell him off in they are not. Obvious, isn't it?

 

[WickedWolfie]

i think a loan deal for both Vitina and Silva, with a manager like our Mick at Cardiff, in a few years both will be Premier regulars, hopefully with us. just not right now,

Mick is absolutely the last manager l would loan any player, particularly a young foreign one, whose game is based on skill and technique rather than effort, physique and power, to.

 

[Contrarian]

That's a bit disingenuous though. Those were the only goals he scored that season. The next season, when he was Silva's age, he didn't score a single goal.

You are right there are examples of players that have outperformed Silva at this age, but if you look at current top scorers and even top Premier League scorers of all time, the evidence is that they are not scoring loads at Silva's age

Updated with top scorers of all time

View attachment 19914

Thats "survival bias" though. You're looking at strikers who we know turned out well and working backwards. What you need to provide is a list of 18 year old hyped up wonderkids and where they ended up. All those who score a goal or 2 at a high level at a young age...what is the percentage success rate.

What you've done there is like listing all the FA Cup winners and saying "Every team that won it, won it without losing a match. Southampton have not lost a match, therefore they will win the FA Cup". False logic.

"Every striker succesful at age 25, scored none at age 18" does not mean that "every striker who scored none at 18, turned out succesful at 25".


Remember Jake Cassidy? "Jake Cassidy's scoring record has been incredible in September and he is increasingly looking like a player with a great future in the game." Why isn't he in your list? And Glen Crowe.

The Football League | News | npower League 1 | npower League 1 news | Cassidy named Player of the Month

Tranmere Rovers striker Jake Cassidy has been named npower League 1 Player of the Month for September

web.archive.org

 

[Deleted member LP 3925]

Mick is absolutely the last manager l would loan any player, particularly a young foreign one, whose game is based on skill and technique rather than effort, physique and power, to.

After last night’s lack of effort, by ‘eck, six months down pit playing for Mick is exactly what bugger lugs needs, grafting.
There’s brass in muck.

 

[The Wolf In The North]

After last night’s lack of effort, by ‘eck, six months down pit playing for Mick is exactly what bugger lugs needs, grafting.
There’s brass in muck.

God, can you imagine. Vitinha took a nudge against Southampton and afterwards looked like he was reconsidering his career path. One training session with Cardiff and he'd be off to live in a caravan in Holland in his underpants with Marco Boogers.

 

[rincewind]

It's pretty clear that Fabio and the other youngsters are going to get plenty of stick while the team aren't doing well. It struck me that the Hoever and RAN did well enough against Saints and Silva looked more likely to score than Willian.
Vitinha was poor but out of position.
Rightly or wrongly the club are clearly trying to build a side good enough to compete near the top in a couple of years. The young players shouldn't be playing as much as they have and certainly not all together but a combination of injuries and poor form of the more experienced players has caused the current situation.
The club have I believe said it's a transition season. Personally think it was the wrong year to make such a change but they have. Hopefully everyone on the mix wants all these youngsters to succeed at Wolves and will be eating humble pie in a year or two, rather like Neto.

 

[Bondi Wolf]

Thats "survival bias" though. You're looking at strikers who we know turned out well and working backwards. What you need to provide is a list of 18 year old hyped up wonderkids and where they ended up. All those who score a goal or 2 at a high level at a young age...what is the percentage success rate.

No, there are two different claims here that you've mixed up

1. "Players that are good at 18 will turn out to be great" (your point). And yes that's not true as with Jake Cassidy
2. "Players that become great are already proving themselves at 18". Untrue.

I'm demonstrating that point 2 is incorrect. Very few of the best forwards, either now or of all time, were great when they were 18. Therefore performance at 18 is not at all predictive of future greatness (in both claims).

My point is that a lot of discussion on this thread is "Silva isn't good enough now so he never will be". That cannot be concluded based on the evidence and nobody should be claiming it. Nobody really knows if he will turn out to be good or not, but there is no way of knowing from current performance that he won't be good.

It's especially misleading when you say "Alan Shearer scored a hattrick on his debut" because it's using an anecdote to try to claim that good players are proving themselves at a young age and therefore claim that because Silva hasn't done so he won't be a good player

 

[Deleted member 9202LYK]

He will, as long as he ignores those who know more than Nuno, Jeff and the rest of the coaching staff, scouts and the same people at Porto.

Jeff is a coach now as well? He’s so versatile.

 

[Krispy Kreme]

Not only did Fabio not set the price, we can't even attribute it all to being his value anyway.

Reported 7 million went to Mendes.

People should be complaining about the agent fees not the fee for a young kid.

 

[WS10Wolf]

What was Raul’s career looking like at 18?

 

[David Moyes eyebrows]

So there's these experts who can spot football skills that ordinary people can't? Cool! So what do they say about Vitinha? Ait-Noiri? Corbeanu? Semedo? Lets use the power of these experts, it will cut out all the risk as they can tell us how good a player is without anybody having to see them play.

Are these experts seeing things that we can't see with Cutrone, too? We need to know. Get him back and give him time if they are. Sell him off in they are not. Obvious, isn't it?

In a word YES. That's why they are paid professionals and you and I are not.

Are you suggesting you are equally qualified to make these judgement calls?

Watching a game once a week does not make anyone an expert. Being involved in the game full time at all levels for many years certainly helps. Watching all the training sessions and being around players all day everyday also helps. They see things we don't.

The link I posted was the opinion of one of the most respected scouts in the world.

I see the crux of our disagreement lies in the fact I put my faith in and trust the judgement of top experts, whilst you think you know better than them.

We could well have one of the world's best strikers on our hands in a few years if we nurture him well, yet some people seem hell bent on destroying his confidence.

Don't blame the kid just because of his price tag, that's not his doing. He's just a kid trying his best.

Don't blame the kid because Nuno plays him, again that's not his fault.

Chem Campbell and Theo Corbeanu are the same age and yet don't get any stick simply because they're not as good as Fabio so don't get in the squad.

 

[David Moyes eyebrows]

Not only did Fabio not set the price, we can't even attribute it all to being his value anyway.

Reported 7 million went to Mendes.

People should be complaining about the agent fees not the fee for a young kid.

Mendes was reportedly owed money by Porto from previous deals, his "fee" wasn't just for this one transaction apparently.

 

[Lisas Husband]

Jeff is a coach now as well? He’s so versatile.

No. Neither are the scouts.
But he probably has a crack at it.

 

[CodsallWolf]

What was Raul’s career looking like at 18?

No-one spent 35 million on Raul when he was 18.

 

[Fenrir_]

No-one spent 35 million on Raul when he was 18.

What's that got to do with it?

 

[Bugsy911]

What's that got to do with it?

It's got everything to do with it it when it's a huge chunk of our transfer budget where we are woefully short in other areas for a player who right now offers us nothing at all.

 

[Fenrir_]

It's got everything to do with it it when it's a huge chunk of our transfer budget where we are woefully short in other areas for a player who right now offers us nothing at all.

It's got nothing to do with it. If you want to argue about transfer strategy/policy that's one thing, anyone JUDGING Silva on his transfer fee is an idiot

 

[Joshwolf218]

It's got nothing to do with it. If you want to argue about transfer strategy/policy that's one thing, anyone JUDGING Silva on his transfer fee is an idiot

another point is we don’t know the transfer kitty how do we know that we couldn’t get anyone else in or didn’t attempt to etc?

 

[Bugsy911]

It's got nothing to do with it. If you want to argue about transfer strategy/policy that's one thing, anyone JUDGING Silva on his transfer fee is an idiot

So you are now throwing insults at me calling me an idiot because I have a different opinion ?

Silva offers us nothing and I doubt he ever will and yes £35m on him you would expect far far better especially at the detriment of the larger team / squad.

 

[chignalwolf]

Mick is absolutely the last manager l would loan any player, particularly a young foreign one, whose game is based on skill and technique rather than effort, physique and power, to.

I don't agree Wicked because i think Silva could do with the right way to put in the effort, physique and power, and then play the skill and technique stuff,
Plus we have always had an Irishman in any successful Wolves team, So Mick is the man to get Paddy O'Silva playing to his best,
I rest my case Sir

 

[Fenrir_]

another point is we don’t know the transfer kitty how do we know that we couldn’t get anyone else in or didn’t attempt to etc?

Apparently we tried to get Carlos Vinicius for around £45m, Benfica refused the offer, we spent on Silva, sorted out a new contract for Jimenez and Benfica got knocked out of the CL and suddenly were open to selling Vinicius. It is worth considering if we'd got him that we may not have extended Jimenez's contract and instead cashed in

 

[Deleted member 11332]

Apparently we tried to get Carlos Vinicius for around £45m, Benfica refused the offer, we spent on Silva, sorted out a new contract for Jimenez and Benfica got knocked out of the CL and suddenly were open to selling Vinicius. It is worth considering if we'd got him that we may not have extended Jimenez's contract and instead cashed in

Think that's exactly what would have happened if we got him and it'd have been some come down in quality.

 

[Fenrir_]

So you are now throwing insults at me calling me an idiot because I have a different opinion ?

Silva offers us nothing and I doubt he ever will and yes £35m on him you would expect far far better especially at the detriment of the larger team / squad.

No, I'm calling you an idiot if you're judging Silva on his price tag. He won't be at the same level as a 25 year old who costs £35m, that's not down to any opinion, that's a fact. He has to grow to become that level, but his ceiling is much, much higher than a 25 year old that costs £35m. With Silva it's the long game, not the now, and his value will be proven (or not) over the next few seasons

If you disagree with where the money went that's one thing and that is down to your opinion, if you're expecting an 18 year old to contribute like a seasoned player because of his fee...

 

[WickedWolfie]

I don't agree Wicked because i think Silva could do with the right way to put in the effort, physique and power, and then play the skill and technique stuff,
Plus we have always had an Irishman in any successful Wolves team, So Mick is the man to get Paddy O'Silva playing to his best,
I rest my case Sir

Paddy O'Silva bejassus.... lol

 

[1972 i began]

It's pretty clear that Fabio and the other youngsters are going to get plenty of stick while the team aren't doing well. It struck me that the Hoever and RAN did well enough against Saints and Silva looked more likely to score than Willian.
Vitinha was poor but out of position.
Rightly or wrongly the club are clearly trying to build a side good enough to compete near the top in a couple of years. The young players shouldn't be playing as much as they have and certainly not all together but a combination of injuries and poor form of the more experienced players has caused the current situation.
The club have I believe said it's a transition season. Personally think it was the wrong year to make such a change but they have. Hopefully everyone on the mix wants all these youngsters to succeed at Wolves and will be eating humble pie in a year or two, rather like Neto.

I've got the tin of custard ready.

Seriously.

Glad I'm not in the Silva is rubbish camp to be honest.Yeah I agree he ay pulling up any tree's at the minute,but he's NOT got the experience of Willian and he reckons it'll tek HIM time to adjust to the pace of the premier.So let's try and give him the backing Nuno is giving him.Nuno said he's working hard in training and that's all the matters at the minute.According to most of yow lot,wim safe from relegation anyway.So let Nuno experiment with his new formation and we will go for it next season.Hopefully with fans in the ground.I reckon young fabio would have loved the South bank shouting him name out loud.

 

[Norwegian Wolf]

Not only did Fabio not set the price, we can't even attribute it all to being his value anyway.

Reported 7 million went to Mendes.

People should be complaining about the agent fees not the fee for a young kid.

I don't care about the fee, I'm complaining about picking him when he is not up to and us playing with 10 men.

 

[Norwegian Wolf]

In a word YES. That's why they are paid professionals and you and I are not.

Are you suggesting you are equally qualified to make these judgement calls?

Watching a game once a week does not make anyone an expert. Being involved in the game full time at all levels for many years certainly helps. Watching all the training sessions and being around players all day everyday also helps. They see things we don't.

Dean Saunders was a paid professional. Managed 5 clubs. And he was involved in the game full time at all levels for many years. And he watched all the training sessions. And he was around players all day everyday. I guess he was one of the real experts. Joey Barton was a manager this season, Jonathan Woodgate currently is. The list is endless.

 

[Norwegian Wolf]

No-one spent 35 million on Raul when he was 18.

Poor Raul, perhaps he didn't have an agent who could get one club (that he had a very close relationship) to pay that much to another club (that he had a close relationship with).

 

[I'm the Wanderer]

It feels as if we paid the huge fee just to get him ready for another team in a few years.

 

[Norwegian Wolf]

It's got nothing to do with it. If you want to argue about transfer strategy/policy that's one thing, anyone JUDGING Silva on his transfer fee is an idiot

Anyone giving Silva a free pass to be schooled in public just because we paid 35 million for him and/or assuming he must be good because he cost 35 million, is also in cloud cuckoo land too.

 

[SA Wolf]

Imo, we can't separate Silva from his transfer fee and therefore must judge him accordingly. Similarly, he has been described as a 'generational talent', a 'wonderkid' and compared to Cristiano Ronaldo. With all of that comes increased expectation, over and above a player that is signed for a nominal fee from Stockport County.
In the same way that if I spend £250k on a Ferrari, I expect it to perform better than a £20k Ford.
Call me an 'idiot' if you like, but for time immemorial, players have been compared to the price they cost in the market place. 'The first £100,000 teenager', the first million pound player' etc... If price didn't matter and equate to value, there would be no transfer market.

 

[KildareWolf]

Jorge Mendes is the biggest problem in the club lining his pockets bringing in players of his own! No way should we be so limited to nearly having to buy players from one agent as soon as we are linked to somebody you nearly know whether it’s gonna happen or not due to who the agent is! Better players out there than Fabio Silva but Jorge got him in and at a ridiculous price to get himself a pay day

 

[Hoganstolemywife]

Jorge Mendes is the biggest problem in the club lining his pockets bringing in players of his own! No way should we be so limited to nearly having to buy players from one agent as soon as we are linked to somebody you nearly know whether it’s gonna happen or not due to who the agent is! Better players out there than Fabio Silva but Jorge got him in and at a ridiculous price to get himself a pay day

Whilst I agree that super agents are a pox on football, we should perhaps remember we are only in the premier League because of our close ties with the leading one in world football.

If you get into bed with the devil...etc.

 

[Fenrir_]

Imo, we can't separate Silva from his transfer fee and therefore must judge him accordingly. Similarly, he has been described as a 'generational talent', a 'wonderkid' and compared to Cristiano Ronaldo. With all of that comes increased expectation, over and above a player that is signed for a nominal fee from Stockport County.
In the same way that if I spend £250k on a Ferrari, I expect it to perform better than a £20k Ford.
Call me an 'idiot' if you like, but for time immemorial, players have been compared to the price they cost in the market place. 'The first £100,000 teenager', the first million pound player' etc... If price didn't matter and equate to value, there would be no transfer market.

Can't compare it to cars can you really, unless you work backwards. A few years ago you could have spent £25k on a nearly new Jag XF or you could have spent £25k on an old E-Type. One would have served you straight away and been a nice modern car, but now a few years on, one of them is worth £100k, the other, maybe £10k and not interesting to anyone anymore

I understand the fee being mentioned to an extent because it's a lot of money, more than we paid for Raúl, but is anyone seriously expecting him to look a £35m player now when he takes to the field or a straight swap for Jimenez? If they are they've paid no attention to how fees have changed over recent years. Man U have just spent a similar amount on Amad Diallo, who got on on the wing against Southampton? ****ing Daniel James! Potential costs, and it costs a lot, a lot more than it did 10-15 years ago. Silva has been bought with more than half an eye on him being worth £80m-£100m or more in a couple of years, and even then he won't produce the same as a 29 year old of similar value. Prices of youngsters have skyrocketed because of potential future value, Silva is for that future

(Which we'll also need to be tapping into because of FFFP*)

*Not a typo

 

[Contrarian]

No, there are two different claims here that you've mixed up

1. "Players that are good at 18 will turn out to be great" (your point). And yes that's not true as with Jake Cassidy
2. "Players that become great are already proving themselves at 18". Untrue.

I'm demonstrating that point 2 is incorrect. Very few of the best forwards, either now or of all time, were great when they were 18. Therefore performance at 18 is not at all predictive of future greatness (in both claims).

My point is that a lot of discussion on this thread is "Silva isn't good enough now so he never will be". That cannot be concluded based on the evidence and nobody should be claiming it. Nobody really knows if he will turn out to be good or not, but there is no way of knowing from current performance that he won't be good.

It's especially misleading when you say "Alan Shearer scored a hattrick on his debut" because it's using an anecdote to try to claim that good players are proving themselves at a young age and therefore claim that because Silva hasn't done so he won't be a good player

Ah. OK. I now get your point on great strikers not proving themselves at 18. It was not something I'd thought, though I get that some do.

My point still stands though, that because a striker is *not* proving themselves at 18, means you can conclude nothing on where they will end up.

The anecdote on Shearer was not being used as anything.. other than an anecdote. Because there have been reams of anecdotes the other way - lethal strikers who were doing not much at 18. If you look hard enough, you can find a player to "prove" any point you want. It all means nothing on the player being discussed here.

The range of a players ultimate level becomes easier to assess over time. At 18, many players have potential to end up anywhere from Premier League to Midland Alliance level. But 22, you are getting a better idea, maybe now you have it down to Championship to League 2. By 26, 99% have found their level and will play out their careers there.

The risk is therefore much higher when you buy an 18 year old. It's like paying £10 for a lottery ticket where the prizes range from £1 to £1000. You could win big time..or lose out. Buying a player at 25 is less risky. Like the £10 ticket where the prize ranges from £8 to £100. Less loss, less win.

 

[Contrarian]

Can't compare it to cars can you really, unless you work backwards. A few years ago you could have spent £25k on a nearly new Jag XF or you could have spent £25k on an old E-Type. One would have served you straight away and been a nice modern car, but now a few years on, one of them is worth £100k, the other, maybe £10k and not interesting to anyone anymore

I understand the fee being mentioned to an extent because it's a lot of money, more than we paid for Raúl, but is anyone seriously expecting him to look a £35m player now when he takes to the field or a straight swap for Jimenez? If they are they've paid no attention to how fees have changed over recent years. Man U have just spent a similar amount on Amad Diallo, who got on on the wing against Southampton? ****ing Daniel James! Potential costs, and it costs a lot, a lot more than it did 10-15 years ago. Silva has been bought with more than half an eye on him being worth £80m-£100m or more in a couple of years, and even then he won't produce the same as a 29 year old of similar value. Prices of youngsters have skyrocketed because of potential future value, Silva is for that future

What you can't compare, absolutely, is our budget and financial resources vs Man Utd. Or Chelsea, or Man City. When they speculate £35M on a teenager, they still have a squad of 20 World and International class players available if that teenager doesn't work out. It's not a significant chunk of your budget that will restrict other transfer needs that may emerge, like it was for us.

 

[Wolf 82]

Has anyone stopped the ask themselves how Silva keeps getting good chances and Jose isn’t getting any chances at all? He does have an instinct about him.. his finishing isn’t there yet on the big stage, but for such a “lightweight, slow, overrated individual”.. he does seem to get himself in some pretty good positions.
I think it’s too early to tell if he will succeed at the top level or not, but we’ve seen plenty enough to suggest that he might.
So put the knives away for a while longer yet.

 

[Deleted member LP 3925]

Mick: By ‘eck, TC, we’ve got this prodigious talent on loan for the rest of the season, he’s a ‘generational’ talent

TC: what, like Deadly Dave?

Mick: What do you suggest we do with him first?

TC: errrm, squat thrusts?

 

[Contrarian]

Seems reasonable to say that we won't really even begin to know how good he is until he is 21 or 22. Would the Silva supporters go along with that?

In which case, we need another primary striker, for those 4 years, then, don't we?

Jose, maybe? If Raul comes back, that is. If not then we will Jose (maybe?) and one other. Or we presume that our solitary striker will never get injured, or lose form, and be available for 38 (or 46...) matches a seaso, while we wait 4 years to see how Fabio turns out.

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

Once Silva bulks up and becomes more of a physical threat he will become a better player. Needs to improve his finishing also