Expected Goals, Goals Against and Points.

[bennymacca]

We know lots of websites, including the BBC, are referring to expected goals (xG), expected goals against (xGA) and expected points (xPTS). I don't have full access to OPTA (the daddy of these websites) but I thought this website was fascinating: EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2019/2020 season | Understat.com

I think these average expected goals and points seem to be a bit skewed by teams that every now and then dish out a goal rout, or have a mare but they do make interesting analysis. xPTS had us in 6th place last season, ahead of Arsenal.

This season: It suggests that Man City are not doing as badly against Liverpool as it might seem, Everton, Southampton, Watford and Man United have been hard done to by results and that Newcastle and West Ham have been flattered by their results. It's saying Wolves are where we belong based on expected points. However it shows that, like last season, our defence is pushing us up the table, with xGA putting us in 5th whereas xG is trending below our postion at 8th.


compare this with last season's results for xPTS

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[bennymacca]

so… statistically speaking while we can always strengthen our defence further, we need more goal chances to move up the table... which means we need more threat from our wingbacks, forwards and midfielders. I wonder what options there are to improve this in the transfer market?

 

[Southdownswolf]

Always think these xg, xga, pg tips things are a load of rubbish.
It's football, some days you do well, some you don't.
We don't need more goal chances, we need more goals (and/or to concede less) and excel spreadsheets aren't needed to prove it.

 

[Black Country Wanderer]

Well basically its telling us how it is,we miss more chances than we give away
We are creating the openings but either having them saved or missing them
We dont give much away at the back and its usually a good strike that pierces our defence
Nothing we dont already know tbh

 

[Pagey]

So statistics say we finished last season where we deserved, and currently lie in the position that we should be this year. Wow, aren't statistics insightful?

 

[North Bank]

Don't get me wrong, it's an interested take on it but I've never been a fan of the "expected" goal stats and even less so after the Brighton home game last season.
We had something like 25-30 shots to their 1 or 2 and it finished 0-0, of course you'd "expect" to score at least 2 or 3 from 30 shots but it just didn't happen that day and Brighton could quite easily have scored 1 of their handfull and won the game.

 

[bennymacca]

Don't get me wrong, it's an interested take on it but I've never been a fan of the "expected" goal stats and even less so after the Brighton home game last season.
We had something like 25-30 shots to their 1 or 2 and it finished 0-0, of course you'd "expect" to score at least 2 or 3 from 30 shots but it just didn't happen that day and Brighton could quite easily have scored 1 of their handfull and won the game.

I agree it doesn't tell you much more than the League Table, goals for/ against and points do. It is obvious that the team that scores more goals wins and some teams have players that are on form and score their chances.
I think it does provide extra insight on which teams get lucky or don't
Man City are not finishing their chances while Leicester are.
Man Utd are not defending well but Leicester are.

 

[oldgoldheart]

What it might do is give a perspective on how the season could pan out. Maybe liverpool and leicester will see results drift back to the “expected level”? I still think city are the best team and the season is not yet over

 

[merseawolf]

What it might do is give a perspective on how the season could pan out. Maybe liverpool and leicester will see results drift back to the “expected level”? I still think city are the best team and the season is not yet over

All these stars are interesting. Interested to hear why you think City are the best team still. From what i have seen of them they look vulnerable. No settled back four makes for them being much easier to get at compared to Liverpool in my opinion. If it’s watching beautiful passing moves with interchanging movement then i agree they are still the best but that doesn’t win you points. Very much doubt Liverpool will lose enough points for the others to catch up. The great thing in Leicester’s position is they can focus entirely on the league.

 

[Poztin]

Possession. Now there’s a pointless stat...