Estimated Points Total

[Me Babbies]

I posted this earlier on the Maths Thread but I like the Logic so I've given it a thread, which I will update every few games.

Rather than replicate what others have done I've used the current PPG & the PPG from the last 5 games as a form guide, I've then taken an average of the season PPG & the last 5 PPG, & applied this to the number of remaining games to get a end of season Estimated points total.

As I its been covered already that teams will not win all their remaining games even if its because they will play each other at some point.

After tonights game we look to be on target to achieve a record points total for this division (110pts) but more importantly based on current form we only need to clear 80pts for promotion (19pts more) & 90pts to win the league (29pts more).

Sorry I was buzzing after getting home after tonights game and needed to get this out LOL.

 

[MolineuxMixer]

121

 

[306NOTOUT]

I’d love to win promotion at Villa Park

 

[Netherton Wolf]

I’d love to win promotion at Villa Park

nooo its got to be at the Mol

 

[Mark Rankines Lovechild]

This looks brilliant.
I don’t know what it tells me but it looks brilliant. We are at the top.

 

[Howler]

110 is a bit cheeky.

Around 100 is more realistic, we are tracking for 97 on https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/ but it has increased 5 points (from 92 to 97) in the past week alone so looking good for the century.

 

[kaohsiungwolf]

If it helps, after 26 games in Reading's record season they had 65 points by this point.. I'm not sure about breaking the record, but if we keep this up it'll be close.

http://www.footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=league_full

 

[Bondi Wolf]

110 is a bit cheeky.

Around 100 is more realistic, we are tracking for 97 on https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/ but it has increased 5 points (from 92 to 97) in the past week alone so looking good for the century.

Finishing on 97 requires a significant drop in form to 1.8 points per game. I can see us about level with Reading's total. The 538 methodology above is overly complicated in my opinion.

 

[Stratman Wolves]

Finishing on 97 requires a significant drop in form to 1.8 points per game. I can see us about level with Reading's total. The 538 methodology above is overly complicated in my opinion.

Been a rough couple years for 538.

 

[JadeWolf]

Fair play @Me Babbies! Love the work you've done on this! Be good if you could keep us updated on how it looks after each game.

 

[Edgmond Wolf]

Lots and lots of points....

 

[Deleted member 6754 (removed at own request)]

I posted this earlier on the Maths Thread but I like the Logic so I've given it a thread, which I will update every few games.

Rather than replicate what others have done I've used the current PPG & the PPG from the last 5 games as a form guide, I've then taken an average of the season PPG & the last 5 PPG, & applied this to the number of remaining games to get a end of season Estimated points total.

As I its been covered already that teams will not win all their remaining games even if its because they will play each other at some point.

After tonights game we look to be on target to achieve a record points total for this division (110pts) but more importantly based on current form we only need to clear 80pts for promotion (19pts more) & 90pts to win the league (29pts more).

Sorry I was buzzing after getting home after tonights game and needed to get this out LOL.

View attachment 3235

I like your approach, but coming from a critical mathematician, I would amend you model slightly. I would account for the "form is temporary, class is permanent" factor and put more weighting to the season PPG in your average. Maybe weight it 3:1 in favour of season PPG. Just because some of the bottom teams have hit a little form recently, doesn't mean it will continue like that.

 

[harry-molineux25]

Imagine if we win promotion/the league against Blues in April. Beautiful

 

[oldgoldheart]

I posted this earlier on the Maths Thread but I like the Logic so I've given it a thread, which I will update every few games.

Rather than replicate what others have done I've used the current PPG & the PPG from the last 5 games as a form guide, I've then taken an average of the season PPG & the last 5 PPG, & applied this to the number of remaining games to get a end of season Estimated points total.

As I its been covered already that teams will not win all their remaining games even if its because they will play each other at some point.

After tonights game we look to be on target to achieve a record points total for this division (110pts) but more importantly based on current form we only need to clear 80pts for promotion (19pts more) & 90pts to win the league (29pts more).

Sorry I was buzzing after getting home after tonights game and needed to get this out LOL.

View attachment 3235

The flaw, as i am sure you appreciate, is that past form is no guide to the future. If it was then most teams may as well give up now. So, the one thing we can be sure of is that the table is wrong.

 

[Clifton Wolf]

Out current PPG is 2.34 which over 46 games takes us to 107/108 points. If we hit that total we will be promoted with about 6 games to go!

 

[Deleted member 4594]

We'll have points coming out of our backsides by May. More points than you can shake a stick at. More points than we know what to do with. Points everywhere. Literally drowning in points.

 

[Oh When the Wolves]

All players will be proving worth for prem so I doubt complacency will kick in too much

 

[wolvesultra]

459

 

[Netherton Wolf]

121

I’m with you

 

[Guzeppi]

We'll have points coming out of our backsides by May. More points than you can shake a stick at. More points than we know what to do with. Points everywhere. Literally drowning in points.

I got the point.

 

[Me Babbies]

The flaw, as i am sure you appreciate, is that past form is no guide to the future. If it was then most teams may as well give up now. So, the one thing we can be sure of is that the table is wrong.

Yes I agree form is no long term guide but likewise points in the bag also doesn’t mean you are guaranteed to get anymore going forward AKA Cardiff four games ago.
This is why I’m taking the average of form & season PPG for my estimations.
I also want to test weighting of the form games to get a closer view of the estimated PPG going forward.

The key important message here is the word Estimation though.

I am pretty sure that based on this model we only need 19 more points for promotion though

 

[Bondi Wolf]

Been a rough couple years for 538.

it sure has

 

[Uncle Festa]

102

 

[donwolf]

Can anyone remember the season when Brentord were on a really good run and looked like getting promotion. Didn' their owner then say that if they went up Warburton would be replaced and all the squad replaced by Italians ( I think). Strangely they didn' get promoted

 

[oldgoldheart]

Yes I agree form is no long term guide but likewise points in the bag also doesn’t mean you are guaranteed to get anymore going forward AKA Cardiff four games ago.
This is why I’m taking the average of form & season PPG for my estimations.
I also want to test weighting of the form games to get a closer view of the estimated PPG going forward.

The key important message here is the word Estimation though.

I am pretty sure that based on this model we only need 19 more points for promotion though

It will be interesting to see. In 2002 we got 83 points and finished third. 80 is a very very low total. My own view is that we need 90. That effectively means ten wins and 30 more points

 

[North West Wanderer]

I can see us dropping points as we secure promotion, and I can see the teams below all beating each other.
I’ll go for 103.

 

[Mugwump]

106. We are quite comfortably the best Wolves side since we wont the league cup by a long way.

 

[Dudleywolf]

107

 

[oldgoldheart]

100

 

[Wenlock Wolf]

The Reading record points target will become a bigger incentive as the season goes on .... I think we'll only grow stronger so, yes why can't we set a new record? I'll say 109.
As we know, we're almost top of every stat, the one which does irk me is leading scorer in the league .... can't see us getting that though, as so many contribute to our goals tally.
I have champagne on ice for the promotion party ....

 

[Me Babbies]

The Reading record points target will become a bigger incentive as the season goes on .... I think we'll only grow stronger so, yes why can't we set a new record? I'll say 109.
As we know, we're almost top of every stat, the one which does irk me is leading scorer in the league .... can't see us getting that though, as so many contribute to our goals tally.
I have champagne on ice for the promotion party ....

I agree but I'd prefer to have three in the top goal scorers charts though rather than one who scores all your goals.
shows the strength of the team and that if that one player gets injured or becomes a transfer target in January (from Prem clubs) we are not necessarily weakened.

 

[RichB]

You just know that Nuno will have the thought of breaking the record in his mind. The guy obviously sets the highest of standards and based on ppg were on track. Arguably we have a harder run in than our run so far but is there anyone in the league we should fear. We need 46 points from 20 games to hit 107 and at 12 points clear of even 2nd place the players need a challenge

* Barnsley A
* Forest H.
Ipswich A
Sheff U H
* QPR H
* Preston A
* Norwich H
Fulham A
* Reading H
Leeds A
Villa A
* Burton H
Boro A
* Hull H
Cardiff A
Derby H
* Blues H
* Bolton A
* Sheff W H
* Sunderland A (Nothing’s gonna stop the promotion party)


60 points up for grabs giving a total achievable 121 points.
I genuinely don’t see that we should fear anyone in this league and think we could beat any of them. We ain’t gonna win every game though obviously.

I’ve starred the games I see as those we should be expecting 3 points and nothing less. This gives us 36 points. So to get the record we need 10 points of a possible 24 to break the record.

 

[RichB]

You just know that Nuno will have the thought of breaking the record in his mind. The guy obviously sets the highest of standards and based on ppg were on track. Arguably we have a harder run in than our run so far but is there anyone in the league we should fear. We need 46 points from 20 games to hit 107 and at 12 points clear of even 2nd place the players need a challenge

* Barnsley A
* Forest H.
Ipswich A
Sheff U H
* QPR H
* Preston A
* Norwich H
Fulham A
* Reading H
Leeds A
Villa A
* Burton H
Boro A
* Hull H
Cardiff A
Derby H
* Blues H
* Bolton A
* Sheff W H
* Sunderland A (Nothing’s gonna stop the promotion party)


60 points up for grabs giving a total achievable 121 points.
I genuinely don’t see that we should fear anyone in this league and think we could beat any of them. We ain’t gonna win every game though obviously.

I’ve starred the games I see as those we should be expecting 3 points and nothing less. This gives us 36 points. So to get the record we need 10 points of a possible 24 to break the record.

I’d be interested to see what other people thought we could get in the remaining games. I’ve broken down in blocks of 5 games.


Barnsley A 3
Forest H. 3
Ipswich A 1
Sheff U H 3
QPR H 3
13/15

Preston A 3
Norwich H. 3
Fulham A. 1
Reading H 3
Leeds A. 1
11/15

Villa A. 1
Burton H 3
Boro A. 1
Hull H 3
Cardiff A. 1
9/15


Derby H. 1
Blues H 3
Bolton A 3
Sheff W H 3
Sunderland A 3
13/15


I’ve given us 46/60. Perhaps being over confident in some games and maybe under confident in others. I could see us continuing unbeaten but it’s a tall order and even the 46 above is ambitious which is the minimum to break the record.

If anyone’s interested in the bet. Skybet have the market at 6/1 for us to break the record. I’ve had £20 on it for a bit of fun.

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

Sporting Index are back up to date and they have us on 98.5 - 100.5 which is less than most of us seem to think.

They have Derby second on 79 - 81 though so maybe they think we'll ease off having won the title when we beat them on 10th April.

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

We'll have points coming out of our backsides by May. More points than you can shake a stick at. More points than we know what to do with. Points everywhere. Literally drowning in points.

Spadesful of points as Edgy would say! I reckon we'll be promoted by the end of the month if my calculations are correct!

 

[northnorfolkwolf]

106. We are quite comfortably the best Wolves side since we wont the league cup by a long way.

When did we win the League Cup by a long way???!!!!

 

[mcwolf]

can you factor in will wolves win promotion before or after the boggies are relegated ?

 

[goldeneyed]

10 more wins as soon as possible is what I am focusing on, anything else is a bonus. So 91 pts plus. Every chance of 100 points but there may be a tail off once we know we have been promoted.

 

[Yout85]

I like your approach, but coming from a critical mathematician, I would amend you model slightly. I would account for the "form is temporary, class is permanent" factor and put more weighting to the season PPG in your average. Maybe weight it 3:1 in favour of season PPG. Just because some of the bottom teams have hit a little form recently, doesn't mean it will continue like that.

It would be interesting to apply both models (3:1 & 1:1) to the team top of the league after 26 games for the past however many seasons, and see which is closer to what actually happened.

I'd do it myself.... but you know... can't be *****.

My suspicion is that the 3:1 model would be more accurate

 

[SavageWolf]

I posted this earlier on the Maths Thread but I like the Logic so I've given it a thread, which I will update every few games.

Rather than replicate what others have done I've used the current PPG & the PPG from the last 5 games as a form guide, I've then taken an average of the season PPG & the last 5 PPG, & applied this to the number of remaining games to get a end of season Estimated points total.

As I its been covered already that teams will not win all their remaining games even if its because they will play each other at some point.

After tonights game we look to be on target to achieve a record points total for this division (110pts) but more importantly based on current form we only need to clear 80pts for promotion (19pts more) & 90pts to win the league (29pts more).

Sorry I was buzzing after getting home after tonights game and needed to get this out LOL.

View attachment 3235

110 points would be very nice indeed and as I'd love us to get the record amount of points I'll go with this.
Do you know what the record difference is between the top 2 in the championship at the end of the season?
I'd like us to win it by 20+ points - as insane as it sounds we're almost that far ahead already.