Burnley Verdict

[SingYourHeartsOut]

A stiff criticism of one of our best players, but undeniably true. A player couldn't ask for better chances than the one-on-ones against Villa and Burnley, yet he panicked and slapped both of them straight at the keeper when the opposite bottom corner was yawning. He scores those two, and we might well have been sitting on as many as 47 points. Seeing as we are fashioning him to be one of our main attacking outlets, he seriously needs to work on his finishing in training.

Obviously it would be nice if he had scored either of his chances v Villa and Burnley, but since we've scored 5 goals since the start of March and he's got 3 of them, with the other 2 being Hugo and an o.g. he doesn't seem like the obvious place to start looking for the problem!

 

[WeAreTheWolvesII]

Ait-Nouri gets more leeway because he's been our only source of hope for the past few games.

Yes he has to score but without him it would be so bad.

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

Ait-Nouri gets more leeway because he's been our only source of hope for the past few games.

Yes he has to score but without him it would be so bad.

Another shocker from Sarabia to be honest I expected more from him last night

 

[wolfslair]

I think the position he's been playing in the last couple of matches unleashes the best from him. And that is more central, further forward. The only problem is that his finishing is not that of a forward.

Mate last night the keeper played it perfectly!!!

He was strong, waited to go down and when he did he made himself very big!

If that was trafford in goal I am confident RAN scores!

The fans had wanted the guy last night back in goal for sometime and you can see why!!!!!! Composed on the ball, could pass it really well
And he was a calming influence on the defenders.

Basically everything James Trafford isn’t because he doesn’t have the experience yet

 

[wolfslair]

Ait-Nouri gets more leeway because he's been our only source of hope for the past few games.

Yes he has to score but without him it would be so bad.

He scored the header, so more than made up for his miss if you look at it.

He scored 1 out of two chances, that is a bloody good hit rate

 

[wulfie88]

 

[thommo1984]

Anyone a bit disappointed with H Buenos performance? Thought he was really poor & genuinely can see why Doc has been picked ahead of him.

Hope he gets a run though to see if he can improve but needs to do way more than last night.

Often seems to try too hard to impress when he starts games, I think. Which is probably understandable given the limited chances he’s had this season but yep, he was all over the shop last night.

 

[SA Wolf]

He scored the header, so more than made up for his miss if you look at it.

He scored 1 out of two chances, that is a bloody good hit rate

In isolation, I'd agree, but taking into account RAN's (similar) miss against Villa and stumble when put through recently (Villa also?); his hit rate is not so good.
RAN is our major positive from the last few weeks, so not out to bash him at all, but in front of goal, he's not so assured. His dribbling is a joy, however. Now if we could couple his creativity with someone who does score regularly (Hwang?)!

 

[Contrarian]

Even “forwards” miss the type of chance that RAN had last night. Antonio missed a one on one last night for West Spam against Spuds. And who can forget the miss by Che Adams against us last season from a yard out when it was easier to score than to miss? We’ve been heavily linked to both players in the past.
Playing forward is still new to RAN. A few more games up front and he would probably have buried that chance last night.

True, but upside down logic. Just because goal scoring forwards occasionally miss an easy chance, doesn't mean that a player who misses an easy chance will become a goal scoring forward. Else I'd be playing...I missed enough sitters!

 

[Corporate Wolf]

Another shocker from Sarabia to be honest I expected more from him last night

Absolutely.

He was woeful in all honesty and as a "senior" player really needed to step up. His lack of pace can be excused with the ability he has to pick a decent through ball/cross. But last night was one to forget.

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

Absolutely.

He was woeful in all honesty and as a "senior" player really needed to step up. His lack of pace can be excused with the ability he has to pick a decent through ball/cross. But last night was one to forget.

Really exposed his lack of pace last night, also a lot of people around me lost it with him after he seemed to bottle the 60/40 with the keeper. Seemed to be trying hard to help Chiwome (with advice rather than his play!) is the most positive thing I can say!

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

Really exposed his lack of pace last night, also a lot of people around me lost it with him after he seemed to bottle the 60/40 with the keeper. Seemed to be trying hard to help Chiwome (with advice rather than his play!) is the most positive thing I can say!

Looking at some stats on newsnow says Sarabia lost the ball 17 times wtf, seriously droppable

“As per Sofascore, the Spain international recorded only 52 touches on the ball, completed two out of his seven attempted crosses, lost possession 17 times and won only 25% of his duels.”

He did get an assist for his troubles. Some consolation for a dog turd performance

 

[lobodelsur]

Our performance aside, I was impressed by Odobert and Esteve. Maybe worth a punt if (when) Burnley go down.

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

Our performance aside, I was impressed by Odobert and Esteve. Maybe worth a punt if (when) Burnley go down.

Odobert looks classy will cost a bit probably. Put him in a better side he will flourish

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

We are finishing mid table now, but that was by no means certain back in January. It’s a balance of risk in my view. The threat of relegation vs a points deduction vs a higher placed finish. In January nobody was talking about qualifying for Europe, so the main risk was relegation and the upside was a few million extra pounds in prize money for finishing a couple of places higher.

Yes, you're right, I should be happy to lose the dream of Europe for the remote possibility of a 3 point penalty next season (reduced by 2 for cooperation).

 

[Sammy Chungs Tracksuit]

Not entirely sure this is fair on Chiwome. The lad was putting himself about, showing for the ball and making runs all night but was largely ignored.

I agree. I thought he did OK. It looked like he had a well placed shot deflected wide by a Wolves player which looked like it would have crept inside the post.

 

[lobodelsur]

I agree. I thought he did OK. It looked like he had a well placed shot deflected wide by a Wolves player which looked like it would have crept inside the post.

The commentary on my viewing said that they thought he did well, made good runs, took up promising positions, worked hard and it will all come good eventually. It's the 'eventually' that's the current problem.

 

[brianm]

It's completely worthless. A vanity stat to tell you how well the people who take their shots performed.

Doesn't take into account the person taking the shot and is also based on players taking that shot in any league, in any competition, all over the world.

People using the stat don't understand metrics, measurement and how flawed the use of stats in football are in general

There are far too many variables in football to make stats worthwhile to depend on and those with statistical degrees don't have the football knowledge to apply them with any sort of meaning.

There's a reason matchday scouts are employed by clubs to watch teams before they play then and there's also cautionary takes about managers that say they don't need them.

Trust your eyes and use simple accurate metrics to confirm or challenge what you saw.

You do love to muddy the waters on anything.

 

[Sammy Chungs Tracksuit]

The commentary on my viewing said that they thought he did well, made good runs, took up promising positions, worked hard and it will all come good eventually. It's the 'eventually' that's the current problem.

Its a massive step up to the Premier League. The lad looks like he has a career in front of him but its yet to be proven at what level. Too early to say while he is still easing his way in.

 

[Golden Arrow]

Walking to the ground last night, I saw this group of youths playing cricket in one of the side streets.

They politely allowed me to field but after fumbling an easy catch (nothing to do with ale of course), I was given the bat.
I lasted four deliveries before being caught second slip.

With that, I thanked my cricket playing friends and headed to the turnstile.
Next time, I think I'll watch from the boundary rope (or the corner shop as it was).

 

[dewolfman]

Caught the second half of that, jesus I can't wait for us to have a striker again. We almost scored an amazing goal but unfortunately the final ball went to Traore who is horse sh¡t, get rid, him doherty and hugo bueno can leave in the summer thanks. There's no chance we're qualifying for europe with our run in, we have arsenal, man city and liverpool still.

 

[Sussex Wolf]

Yes, you're right, I should be happy to lose the dream of Europe for the remote possibility of a 3 point penalty next season (reduced by 2 for cooperation).

Sounds great with the benefit of hindsight. In January when the club were making that decision, Everton had just been deducted 10 points, and the result of their appeal wasn’t known by the time the window closed. We were looking forward to having 4 fit senior forwards backed up with a couple of youngsters. You think the club thought the potential of a slightly greater chance of qualifying for Europe in 24/25 would be worth a 10 point deduction in Jan’25?

 

[WeAreTheWolvesII]

Sounds great with the benefit of hindsight. In January when the club were making that decision, Everton had just been deducted 10 points, and the result of their appeal wasn’t known by the time the window closed. We were looking forward to having 4 fit senior forwards backed up with a couple of youngsters. You think the club thought the potential of a slightly greater chance of qualifying for Europe in 24/25 would be worth a 10 point deduction in Jan’25?

Like me, (I think from previous posts) SYHO has looked into the financial situation and doesn’t believe a points deduction was a real possibility.

Instead of repeating ffp because that’s what you’ve been told, break it down as to why you think we’re in trouble.

If you don’t know and you’re getting your info from the vague reports, can you please check yourself, read how it works and then tell me how we were in trouble.

I don’t mean to derail a thread, so PM me if that’s better.

I would genuinely be interested to see how you think we’re close.

 

[CelebrityWolf]

A stiff criticism of one of our best players, but undeniably true. A player couldn't ask for better chances than the one-on-ones against Villa and Burnley, yet he panicked and slapped both of them straight at the keeper when the opposite bottom corner was yawning. He scores those two, and we might well have been sitting on as many as 47 points. Seeing as we are fashioning him to be one of our main attacking outlets, he seriously needs to work on his finishing in training.

He is a defender not a forward. Hence he isn't clinical in front of goal ffs.

 

[CelebrityWolf]

Kilman also put RAN through with a brilliant through ball which RAN had to score.

i forgot though, RAN is the current poster boy and unable to be criticised whereas Kilman needs literally crucifying.

This ladies, gents and those who don’t identify either way, is the football fan of 2024.

This isn’t aimed at you per se OWTW.

RAN isn't the current poster boy, he is just one of the best players to have come through the club for decades and will move on to much bigger and better things this summer.

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

Sounds great with the benefit of hindsight. In January when the club were making that decision, Everton had just been deducted 10 points, and the result of their appeal wasn’t known by the time the window closed. We were looking forward to having 4 fit senior forwards backed up with a couple of youngsters. You think the club thought the potential of a slightly greater chance of qualifying for Europe in 24/25 would be worth a 10 point deduction in Jan’25?

Yes, I mean it's important not to use hindsight, I did say at the time, if we didn't have the money to get the player we wanted, we'd be better not to bother.

However it's also important not to rewrite history.

This is the table without Everton's deduction. So we were 11 points ahead of relegation, 3 points behind 7th with a game in hand.

We didn't have 4 fit senior forwards in January, I assume you're including Bellegarde, who isn't a forward (even if we've tried to shoehorn him in there) and Hwang, who was hobbling his way through the Asia Cup. Neto was recently returned from 2 months out. None of them is a #9, which should have been our main priority for 3 years!

The 10 point penalty was 3+3+4 for a breach, a major breach and lying! So suggesting we might have got 10 points even at that time is exaggeration, a breach which say relied on expecting us to finish 13th and then being 16th and being honest about it would have been 3 points tops.

 

[Jefe]

He is a defender not a forward. Hence he isn't clinical in front of goal ffs.

I think any professional footballer in any position on the pitch (and a fair few semi-pros and amateurs) would kick themselves for missing those chances. I'm not saying he is a forward, but he is being fashioned into something like one, and is probably the best attacking threat we have right now - at least until Cunha gets back up to speed.

 

[CelebrityWolf]

I think any professional footballer in any position on the pitch (and a fair few semi-pros and amateurs) would kick themselves for missing those chances. I'm not saying he is a forward, but he is being fashioned into something like one, and is probably the best attacking threat we have right now - at least until Cunha gets back up to speed.

Not saying he 'shouldn't' score, I am saying he isn't a natural goalscorer as scoring goals has never been his trade, hence not being clinical in front of goal.

 

[Incognito]

Effectively we have 9 PL forwards (Cunha, Hwang, Neto, Bellegarde, Sarabia, Guedes, Podence, Fabio, Sasa). For a variety of reasons, some you can blame the club and some not, only one of those was available to start today.

Nope. "Effectively" you can consider 4 of those to no longer be "playing" for our club. Back to square one...

 

[Black Country Wanderer]

Yes, I mean it's important not to use hindsight, I did say at the time, if we didn't have the money to get the player we wanted, we'd be better not to bother.

However it's also important not to rewrite history.

This is the table without Everton's deduction. So we were 11 points ahead of relegation, 3 points behind 7th with a game in hand.
View attachment 41621
We didn't have 4 fit senior forwards in January, I assume you're including Bellegarde, who isn't a forward (even if we've tried to shoehorn him in there) and Hwang, who was hobbling his way through the Asia Cup. Neto was recently returned from 2 months out. None of them is a #9, which should have been our main priority for 3 years!

The 10 point penalty was 3+3+4 for a breach, a major breach and lying! So suggesting we might have got 10 points even at that time is exaggeration, a breach which say relied on expecting us to finish 13th and then being 16th and being honest about it would have been 3 points tops.

So you agree a points deduction was possible then?
Im only asking as it seems some are saying we werent in any way close to that,but i fail to see how considering our 2 big loss making seasons alone put us over the threshold by £10 mil?

 

[Sussex Wolf]

Yes, I mean it's important not to use hindsight, I did say at the time, if we didn't have the money to get the player we wanted, we'd be better not to bother.

However it's also important not to rewrite history.

This is the table without Everton's deduction. So we were 11 points ahead of relegation, 3 points behind 7th with a game in hand.
View attachment 41621
We didn't have 4 fit senior forwards in January, I assume you're including Bellegarde, who isn't a forward (even if we've tried to shoehorn him in there) and Hwang, who was hobbling his way through the Asia Cup. Neto was recently returned from 2 months out. None of them is a #9, which should have been our main priority for 3 years!

The 10 point penalty was 3+3+4 for a breach, a major breach and lying! So suggesting we might have got 10 points even at that time is exaggeration, a breach which say relied on expecting us to finish 13th and then being 16th and being honest about it would have been 3 points tops.

I know where we were in the league in January, and I took that into account in my post. You seem to have forgotten that spending in January isn’t about a point deduction this season, but next. The assessment for this season’s punishments was based on spend up to June 2023. But the benefit of signing a forward was entirely this season, and given the relative safety we had in January, the only benefit was qualifying for Europe, most likely Europa Conference. So for the possibility of getting into that, we potentially pick up a potentially large points deduction next season? Don’t think that’s an especially attractive deal for Fosun.

As to the size of the points deduction next season. I didn’t say we would get a 10 pt deduction had we overspent, but that the club would have been focused by the 10 pt deduction given to Everton, and how it was calculated. It certainly seemed to occupy the minds of many in football, and many fans. The PL actually wanted more than 10 pts if you remember, and it was the first independent review which gave them 10, and then a second independent appeal review which accepted some of Everton’s arguments and reduced it to 6. Whether it’s 6, 8, 10 or more, it’s enough to have a material impact on our season.

As for forwards, JRB was bought to replace Nunes, and I didn’t count him, although he’s been played up front too. Technically we have Cunha, Hwang, Neto, Noha and Enso as senior squad forwards (not on loan) with Fraser and Chiwome as U21 squad members who have also trained with the senior squad. I discounted Noha as he was a late arrival and still settling. Hwang wasn’t hobbling then, he played and scored for Korea, Neto was playing and getting sharper, Cunha was cooking and Enso seen as cover for Neto once he had trained a bit.

What we are missing, and have been since Raul got injured, are strikers. God knows we’ve tried, but to date, we’ve spent a significant amount on money without finding one. That wasn’t going to be properly fixed in January, but we had two targets lined up which both fell through for different reasons. Fraser and Chiwome are the closest we’ve got, but both need more experience and time in the gym - much like Fabio did when he arrived.

 

[Sussex Wolf]

Like me, (I think from previous posts) SYHO has looked into the financial situation and doesn’t believe a points deduction was a real possibility.

Instead of repeating ffp because that’s what you’ve been told, break it down as to why you think we’re in trouble.

If you don’t know and you’re getting your info from the vague reports, can you please check yourself, read how it works and then tell me how we were in trouble.

I don’t mean to derail a thread, so PM me if that’s better.

I would genuinely be interested to see how you think we’re close.

As I said in an earlier post which prompted the exchange with SYHO, I can only go by the reports instigated by the club that we would be 2-3m on the right side of the limit if we finish 17th this season. Remember this is the current assessment period ending June’24. Because of that, we have no way of calculating the actual figures ourselves, as the accounts are still open and so the club’s figure is a forecast based on an assumed worst case finish. I explained that there is uncertainty because of Shi’s changing stories in prior years, but without evidence to challenge it, when I will accept its authenticity for now.

As for the assessment period which closed last June and prompted the Forest deduction and upcoming second Everton one, Wolves said we were comfortably within the rules, and this was confirmed by analysis of the published accounts on the various FFP threads on here, by articles in the Athletic, and Percy in the Telegraph. Where it seems we all got confused last summer, was that the big sell was actually aimed at ensuring compliance for the assessment period ending June’24.

As you may remember from my very critical posts a year ago, I’m coming at this as a skeptic and not a Fosun happy clapper!

 

[WeAreTheWolvesII]

So you agree a points deduction was possible then?
Im only asking as it seems some are saying we werent in any way close to that,but i fail to see how considering our 2 big loss making seasons alone put us over the threshold by £10 mil?

It put us over on losses but PSR isn't what you lose. There are allowable deductions for various factors.

According to Steve Madeley, who got the info from Wolves, and it's the same info provided to Liam Keen as he has the same figures, the allowable deductions in 23/24 come to £17m.

You can also work out from his calculations that the two years prior come to £80m losses for PSR. So the £113m is actually £80m towards the £105m limit.

They are claiming we're close to breaching PSR because in 2023/24 we're forecasting to LOSE £39m, which is £22m for PSR.

Yes, this year, our 'forecasts' claim that we are going to lose that much money.

Do you think that is possible? After selling Neves, after reducing the wage bill to the extent we did. Do you actually believe that? If you do, fair enough. I can't fathom one bit how it's at all possible that a club could do what we did and still announce losses of £39m (£22m for PSR).

 

[WeAreTheWolvesII]

As I said in an earlier post which prompted the exchange with SYHO, I can only go by the reports instigated by the club that we would be 2-3m on the right side of the limit if we finish 17th this season. Remember this is the current assessment period ending June’24. Because of that, we have no way of calculating the actual figures ourselves, as the accounts are still open and so the club’s figure is a forecast based on an assumed worst case finish. I explained that there is uncertainty because of Shi’s changing stories in prior years, but without evidence to challenge it, when I will accept its authenticity for now.

As for the assessment period which closed last June and prompted the Forest deduction and upcoming second Everton one, Wolves said we were comfortably within the rules, and this was confirmed by analysis of the published accounts on the various FFP threads on here, by articles in the Athletic, and Percy in the Telegraph. Where it seems we all got confused last summer, was that the big sell was actually aimed at ensuring compliance for the assessment period ending June’24.

As you may remember from my very critical posts a year ago, I’m coming at this as a skeptic and not a Fosun happy clapper!

See my above post mate, basically same response to this.

 

[Sussex Wolf]

It put us over on losses but PSR isn't what you lose. There are allowable deductions for various factors.

According to Steve Madeley, who got the info from Wolves, and it's the same info provided to Liam Keen as he has the same figures, the allowable deductions in 23/24 come to £17m.

You can also work out from his calculations that the two years prior come to £80m losses for PSR. So the £113m is actually £80m towards the £105m limit.

They are claiming we're close to breaching PSR because in 2023/24 we're forecasting to LOSE £39m, which is £22m for PSR.

Yes, this year, our 'forecasts' claim that we are going to lose that much money.

Do you think that is possible? After selling Neves, after reducing the wage bill to the extent we did. Do you actually believe that? If you do, fair enough. I can't fathom one bit how it's at all possible that a club could do what we did and still announce losses of £39m (£22m for PSR).

Hard to tell really. Looking at some of the other clubs figures like Everton’s, who posted a healthy transfer surplus but an even bigger operating loss, maybe PL club finances in general are far more worse than we thought? All I know is that this is not limited to Wolves, and hence I’m forced to accept Fosun’s forecast.

 

[SingYourHeartsOut]

I know where we were in the league in January, and I took that into account in my post.

I'm sure this isn't really the place but you said

We are finishing mid table now, but that was by no means certain back in January......... In January nobody was talking about qualifying for Europe, so the main risk was relegation and the upside was a few million extra pounds in prize money for finishing a couple of places higher.

So I was just demonstrating that given we were 11 points clear of relegation (with two more deductions likely to come) and 3 points off 7th with a game in hand, that's odd.

As to the size of the points deduction next season. I didn’t say we would get a 10 pt deduction had we overspent,

Feels like you did

You think the club thought the potential of a slightly greater chance of qualifying for Europe in 24/25 would be worth a 10 point deduction in Jan’25?

You were right though of course in terms of attacking players, we did have Sarabia, Neto, Hwang (who started his first Asia Cup game 30/1) and Cunha. People had faith in our new medical team. If you're counting Enso and maybe Noha as senior attacking players I give up. The fact that neither has made it on the pitch yet shows how sensible that is. So you're effectively saying it was OK to go into the second half the season playing 343 hoping that 3 of the 4 senior pros would stay fit and some kids might fill in. I think O'Neil has made his feelings clear about the wisdom of that.

 

[JOSWolf]

Another shocker from Sarabia to be honest I expected more from him last night

Agree. He was really poor last night.

 

[SakosRightFoot]

As I said in an earlier post which prompted the exchange with SYHO, I can only go by the reports instigated by the club that we would be 2-3m on the right side of the limit if we finish 17th this season. Remember this is the current assessment period ending June’24. Because of that, we have no way of calculating the actual figures ourselves, as the accounts are still open and so the club’s figure is a forecast based on an assumed worst case finish. I explained that there is uncertainty because of Shi’s changing stories in prior years, but without evidence to challenge it, when I will accept its authenticity for now.

As for the assessment period which closed last June and prompted the Forest deduction and upcoming second Everton one, Wolves said we were comfortably within the rules, and this was confirmed by analysis of the published accounts on the various FFP threads on here, by articles in the Athletic, and Percy in the Telegraph. Where it seems we all got confused last summer, was that the big sell was actually aimed at ensuring compliance for the assessment period ending June’24.

As you may remember from my very critical posts a year ago, I’m coming at this as a skeptic and not a Fosun happy clapper!

Your last point is the important one, people wrongly think it’s always about the season just gone and not the one we’re in and next. If you look at the accounts the amount of money we owe and could owe in bonuses is frightening. Kieran Maguires analysis was we were losing £184k a day that is wholly unsustainable and should be recognised by all those who think it was only a few million to sign someone in Jan, Gary O’Neil can say what he likes managers always want more players, personally think there’s a bit of deflection there because he’s spent weeks saying RAN can’t play further forward and then finally relents and he scores

 

[WeAreTheWolvesII]

Hard to tell really. Looking at some of the other clubs figures like Everton’s, who posted a healthy transfer surplus but an even bigger operating loss, maybe PL club finances in general are far more worse than we thought? All I know is that this is not limited to Wolves, and hence I’m forced to accept Fosun’s forecast.

You don't have to accept the forecast, that's the point.

As I said, they're entire claim of PSR being an issue is that we're going to lose £39m, which is £22m for PSR in 23/24.

How is that possible? Sorry to keep reiterating it. Madeley has been asked a few times since making the claim and has ignored it. Keen says nothing as well, which is really bad considering it's their job and they're acting as the mouthpiece of the club. Nobody is explaining how this is possible.

All the figures suggest it's not possible. When you take into account amortisation and what we brought in. You don't need to be a numbers genius to work this out.

So then you get back to wondering why the club are misleading us over PSR. That's the real worry.

 

[SakosRightFoot]

You don't have to accept the forecast, that's the point.

As I said, they're entire claim of PSR being an issue is that we're going to lose £39m, which is £22m for PSR in 23/24.

How is that possible? Sorry to keep reiterating it. Madeley has been asked a few times since making the claim and has ignored it. Keen says nothing as well, which is really bad considering it's their job and they're acting as the mouthpiece of the club. Nobody is explaining how this is possible.

All the figures suggest it's not possible. When you take into account amortisation and what we brought in. You don't need to be a numbers genius to work this out.

So then you get back to wondering why the club are misleading us over PSR. That's the real worry.

If you look into the accounts we owe a huge sum of money on previous transfers, £230 million due within this financial year. Our turnover was £168 million last year. So even with player sales and a reduction in salaries we are carrying a huge amount of debt and liabilities. The accounts show the wage bill at £141.5 million last year.