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Adama - impact analysis

WolfLing

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Yet we have more points from the games he doesn’t start !! Go figure !! I’d also suggest we have scored more goals without him on the pitch as well and conceded more with him on it !!

Sorry to ask the question, but haven’t we scored more goals when adama wasn’t on the pitch this season?

Saw these 2 posts in the Adama thread and thought it was worth exploring in some more depth.

We've played 24 games so far this season, Adama has appeared in 23 of them.

He's been off the pitch for slightly less than he's been on it (1,138 minutes on, 1,022 off, not including any added time as that is too hard!).

Here are the numbers for goals and results with him ON and OFF the pitch.

AT Stats.jpg

14 goals for and 10 goals against with him ON the pitch

14 goals for for and 8 goals against with him OFF the pitch

On the face of it, we don't score any more or less when he's on the pitch, but we concede fewer goals when he's off the pitch. But the devil, as always, is in the detail.

In our 24 games this season, as a team, our record is:
  • 12 wins
  • 5 draws
  • 7 losses
In the 23 games Adama has appeared in, for the minutes he is ON the pitch, the results have been:
  • 9 Wins
  • 8 Draws
  • 6 Losses
In the 23 games Adama has appeared in, for the minutes he is OFF the pitch, the results have been:
  • 8 Wins
  • 7 Draws
  • 4 Losses
Obviously these stats don't take into account the intricacies of each game, but on the whole, we are winning a little bit less, drawing a little bit more and losing a lot less without Adama on the pitch.

It's when you look at the games he starts and doesn't start that things become quite interesting:

For games Adama has started, our overall record in those games is:
  • 2 wins
  • 2 draws
  • 6 losses
For games Adama hasn't started, our overall record in those games is:
  • 10 wins
  • 3 draws
  • 1 losses
For games Adama has started, when he is ON the pitch, the results are:
  • 3 Wins
  • 2 Draw
  • 5 Losses
For games Adama has come on as a sub, when he is ON the pitch, the results are:
  • 6 Wins
  • 6 Draws
  • 1 Losses
So we win more, draw more and lose a lot less when Adama doesn't start and comes on as a sub. But it's clear that Adama has a positive impact on results, particularly in the last 5 games, when him coming on has helped contribute to wins against Man United and Brentford, 2 of the 3 goals against Sheffield United, scoring his first goal of the season against Southampton and almost getting another against Brentford (**** VAR!).

Stats that point to Bruno probably being right to use him as an impact sub. A role it appears he is unwilling to accept here (why he won't sign a new deal), but a role he might accept at a 'bigger profile' club (Spurs).

I'd love to keep him here as a different option, but it's looking more and more likely he will be off. The stats above maybe show that it wouldn't be the end of the world?!
 
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Bob Wolf

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Excellent work. Only confounding factors I can think of is that if he is started in games where we are expecting to be playing more on the counter attack (likely against better teams) or whether the starts for him coming from the bench are biased because he will be more likely to be brought on if we are winning (again for the counter attack threat).

I’m ambivalent about keeping him to be honest. The main reason that I would like him to stay is that he always gives you the potential (although rare) to do something unique against technically superior opposition. The main example would be against Sevilla where he won us the penalty. His dribbling and pace mean that on his day he can level the playing field against better opposition.
 

JonahWolf

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Excellent work. Good point from @Bob Wolf, and it is alluded to in the OP: that Adama does tend to start in a front 2 in games we’re expected to be camped in deep, so that skews the numbers slightly against him.
 

theweave

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Seems to back up the feeling that he's best utilised from the bench. I guess it's whether we can afford to do that or if the money would be better spent elsewhere (assuming that it would be)
 

wolfslair

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Saw these 2 posts in the Adama thread and thought it was worth exploring in some more depth.

We've played 24 games so far this season, Adama has appeared in 23 of them.

He's been on the pitch for slightly less than he's been off it (1,050 minutes on, 1,110 off, not including any added time as that is too hard!).

Here are the numbers for goals and results with him ON and OFF the pitch.

View attachment 26369

14 goals for and 11 goals against with him ON the pitch

14 goals for for and 7 goals against with him OFF the pitch

On the face of it, we don't score any more or less when he's on the pitch, but we concede fewer goals when he's off the pitch. But the devil, as always, is in the detail.

In our 24 games this season, as a team, our record is:
  • 12 wins
  • 5 draws
  • 7 losses
In the 23 games Adama has appeared in, for the minutes he is ON the pitch, the results have been:
  • 9 Wins
  • 7 Draws
  • 7 Losses
In the 23 games Adama has appeared in, for the minutes he is OFF the pitch, the results have been:
  • 8 Wins
  • 8 Draws
  • 3 Losses
Obviously these stats don't take into account the intricacies of each game, but on the whole, we are winning a little bit less, drawing a little bit more and losing a lot less without Adama on the pitch.

It's when you look at the games he starts and doesn't start that things become quite interesting:

For games Adama has started, our overall record in those games is:
  • 2 wins
  • 2 draws
  • 5 losses
For games Adama hasn't started, our overall record in those games is:
  • 10 wins
  • 2 draws
  • 2 losses
For games Adama has started, when he is ON the pitch, the results are:
  • 3 Wins
  • 1 Draw
  • 5 Losses
For games Adama has come on as a sub, when he is ON the pitch, the results are:
  • 6 Wins
  • 6 Draws
  • 2 Losses
So we win more, draw more and lose a lot less when Adama doesn't start and comes on as a sub. But it's clear that Adama has a positive impact on results, particularly in the last 5 games, when him coming on has helped contribute to wins against Man United and Brentford, 2 of the 3 goals against Sheffield United, scoring his first goal of the season against Southampton and almost getting another against Brentford (**** VAR!).

Stats that point to Bruno probably being right to use him as an impact sub. A role it appears he is unwilling to accept here (why he won't sign a new deal), but a role he might accept at a 'bigger profile' club (Spurs).

I'd love to keep him here as a different option, but it's looking more and more likely he will be off. The stats above maybe show that it wouldn't be the end of the world?!
Wow!!! That was an awesome read!!!

Thank you for pulling that together, I really enjoyed reading it!
 

Olivergoldblack

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Glad the stats back up what I've been thinking for a long time. Also clearly Bruno sees him as an impact sub, and it's proving useful.
Might be because he's so explosive he can only really do it a few times a match and he's not helping the team so much when he's recharging.
I'd like to keep him until the summer then sell if possible, but seems likely he'll go in the next few days.
 

CelebrityWolf

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Nice stat compilation but not sure we learn anything from this to be honest. You would have to be blind to think we are a better unit with him on the pitch and in this day and age players are expected to do so much more without the ball and this is why he will never get regular starts anywhere.
 

WolfLing

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In summary, jog on you roadrunner, time to let the adults play, here's looking at you Pedro

Not quite that harsh maybe! :tearsofjoy:

I think he's a decent option to have. But a fully fit Neto is maybe a better one!

One thing I will be pleased about if he leaves is the debate about him. We can talk about other things!!
 

Loojay

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Not quite that harsh maybe! :tearsofjoy:

I think he's a decent option to have. But a fully fit Neto is maybe a better one!

One thing I will be pleased about if he leaves is the debate about him. We can talk about other things!!
We will definitely still be talking about Adama

See: Doherty, Goncalves, Jota
 

Black Country Wanderer

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Only goes to show we operate with or without him,as we would with or without any player
Players come and go as they have done over the decades
We thought the world had ended when Knowlsey packed it in,Spiers thought losing Dave Edwards was unforgivable, apparently neither stopped us in our tracks
Obviously losing good players hurts if they are not replaced either internally or externally,losing great players is harder to take but Traore isnt one of those
He detracts as much as he gives the team,proved by the stats above
He excites and frustrates in equal measure,so for me no great loss if he goes no great gain if he stays
 

tamwolf

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For games Adama has started, our overall record in those games is:
2 wins2 draws5 losses

Should this be 6 losses? I think he has started the games we lost against Leicester, Spurs, Man United, Brentford, Man City and Liverpool.
 

WolfLing

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Should this be 6 losses? I think he has started the games we lost against Leicester, Spurs, Man United, Brentford, Man City and Liverpool.

Good spot. I've got him playing 1 minute and not 89 for that game, when it's the other way around!!
 

Kcb92

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Great analysis. Always enjoy these kind of threads
 

cannockwolves

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Great work pulling that analysis.

I want to keep him, but I would not be prepared to lose the £22m on offer.

I still think investing that money in a better back-up striker or someone to give Mouts a rest would be well worth taking the hit on losing Adama - if he is not signing a new contract.
 

Direwolf

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The fact that two defenders stay back and do not come up for a free kick because Adama is lurking around the centre circle does not really play out in statistics in my opinion, not to mention yellow cards, space he makes for others by attracting two or three defenders etc. I just think he is under used and often comes on too late too make a real impact.
 

Golden_Wolf

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The fact that two defenders stay back and do not come up for a free kick because Adama is lurking around the centre circle does not really play out in statistics in my opinion, not to mention yellow cards, space he makes for others by attracting two or three defenders etc. I just think he is under used and often comes on too late too make a real impact.
That's just standard practice. Most clubs do this. It's nothing specific to Adama.
 

Beer Wolf

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Saw these 2 posts in the Adama thread and thought it was worth exploring in some more depth.

We've played 24 games so far this season, Adama has appeared in 23 of them.

He's been on the pitch for slightly less than he's been off it (1,050 minutes on, 1,110 off, not including any added time as that is too hard!).

Here are the numbers for goals and results with him ON and OFF the pitch.

View attachment 26369

14 goals for and 11 goals against with him ON the pitch

14 goals for for and 7 goals against with him OFF the pitch

On the face of it, we don't score any more or less when he's on the pitch, but we concede fewer goals when he's off the pitch. But the devil, as always, is in the detail.

In our 24 games this season, as a team, our record is:
  • 12 wins
  • 5 draws
  • 7 losses
In the 23 games Adama has appeared in, for the minutes he is ON the pitch, the results have been:
  • 9 Wins
  • 7 Draws
  • 7 Losses
In the 23 games Adama has appeared in, for the minutes he is OFF the pitch, the results have been:
  • 8 Wins
  • 8 Draws
  • 3 Losses
Obviously these stats don't take into account the intricacies of each game, but on the whole, we are winning a little bit less, drawing a little bit more and losing a lot less without Adama on the pitch.

It's when you look at the games he starts and doesn't start that things become quite interesting:

For games Adama has started, our overall record in those games is:
  • 2 wins
  • 2 draws
  • 5 losses
For games Adama hasn't started, our overall record in those games is:
  • 10 wins
  • 2 draws
  • 2 losses
For games Adama has started, when he is ON the pitch, the results are:
  • 3 Wins
  • 1 Draw
  • 5 Losses
For games Adama has come on as a sub, when he is ON the pitch, the results are:
  • 6 Wins
  • 6 Draws
  • 2 Losses
So we win more, draw more and lose a lot less when Adama doesn't start and comes on as a sub. But it's clear that Adama has a positive impact on results, particularly in the last 5 games, when him coming on has helped contribute to wins against Man United and Brentford, 2 of the 3 goals against Sheffield United, scoring his first goal of the season against Southampton and almost getting another against Brentford (**** VAR!).

Stats that point to Bruno probably being right to use him as an impact sub. A role it appears he is unwilling to accept here (why he won't sign a new deal), but a role he might accept at a 'bigger profile' club (Spurs).

I'd love to keep him here as a different option, but it's looking more and more likely he will be off. The stats above maybe show that it wouldn't be the end of the world?!
Statto... Statto... Statto.
Only kidding mate. That was a very interesting read, well done.
 

Beer Wolf

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The fact that two defenders stay back and do not come up for a free kick because Adama is lurking around the centre circle does not really play out in statistics in my opinion, not to mention yellow cards, space he makes for others by attracting two or three defenders etc. I just think he is under used and often comes on too late too make a real impact.
If , and it may be a big if, Neto comes back with no loss of pace, he could quite easily be left on the halfway line tying up two defenders.
 

AndyWolves

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The fact that two defenders stay back and do not come up for a free kick because Adama is lurking around the centre circle does not really play out in statistics in my opinion, not to mention yellow cards, space he makes for others by attracting two or three defenders etc. I just think he is under used and often comes on too late too make a real impact.
The material impact of these things doesn't appear to be significant though.

Either that, or these things aren't specific to Adama.
 

sedgwolf1980

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Option A - we lose Adama and can’t play him
Option B - we keep him and have the option of either playing him or not playing him

I can never understand when people say we will be ‘better’ without X player. By definition, simply having them as an option makes the squad better.

It would be madness to sell at this stage, baring a totally ridiculous offer. Any by ridiculous I mean 35m plus.
 

Bawtry Wolf

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The fact that two defenders stay back and do not come up for a free kick because Adama is lurking around the centre circle does not really play out in statistics in my opinion, not to mention yellow cards, space he makes for others by attracting two or three defenders etc. I just think he is under used and often comes on too late too make a real impact.
Been wracking my memory but am sure he normally drops back at corners. We leave Podence up (he’s too short anyway for opposition corners) or Trincao. I could be wrong but thinking when Sa tries to put people away it’s not Adama but Podence. If we’re chasing very late in the game I think he could be left up but don’t recall it.
 

TriumphWolf

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Great work on the analysis, I think many people have felt that his biggest benefit to the team is as a second-half substitute to change the course of a game against a tiring opponent. This reinforces those views with some data.

i Suspect it will all be a bit academic shortly, assuming he does move on.
 

WolfInSheep'sClothing

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The games adama has started have been a much harder set of fixtures than the ones he hasn't. Anyone that can't see that is a plank.
 

WolfInSheep'sClothing

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Saw these 2 posts in the Adama thread and thought it was worth exploring in some more depth.

We've played 24 games so far this season, Adama has appeared in 23 of them.

He's been on the pitch for slightly less than he's been off it (1,050 minutes on, 1,110 off, not including any added time as that is too hard!).

Here are the numbers for goals and results with him ON and OFF the pitch.

View attachment 26369

14 goals for and 11 goals against with him ON the pitch

14 goals for for and 7 goals against with him OFF the pitch

On the face of it, we don't score any more or less when he's on the pitch, but we concede fewer goals when he's off the pitch. But the devil, as always, is in the detail.

In our 24 games this season, as a team, our record is:
  • 12 wins
  • 5 draws
  • 7 losses
In the 23 games Adama has appeared in, for the minutes he is ON the pitch, the results have been:
  • 9 Wins
  • 7 Draws
  • 7 Losses
In the 23 games Adama has appeared in, for the minutes he is OFF the pitch, the results have been:
  • 8 Wins
  • 8 Draws
  • 3 Losses
Obviously these stats don't take into account the intricacies of each game, but on the whole, we are winning a little bit less, drawing a little bit more and losing a lot less without Adama on the pitch.

It's when you look at the games he starts and doesn't start that things become quite interesting:

For games Adama has started, our overall record in those games is:
  • 2 wins
  • 2 draws
  • 5 losses
For games Adama hasn't started, our overall record in those games is:
  • 10 wins
  • 2 draws
  • 2 losses
For games Adama has started, when he is ON the pitch, the results are:
  • 3 Wins
  • 1 Draw
  • 5 Losses
For games Adama has come on as a sub, when he is ON the pitch, the results are:
  • 6 Wins
  • 6 Draws
  • 2 Losses
So we win more, draw more and lose a lot less when Adama doesn't start and comes on as a sub. But it's clear that Adama has a positive impact on results, particularly in the last 5 games, when him coming on has helped contribute to wins against Man United and Brentford, 2 of the 3 goals against Sheffield United, scoring his first goal of the season against Southampton and almost getting another against Brentford (**** VAR!).

Stats that point to Bruno probably being right to use him as an impact sub. A role it appears he is unwilling to accept here (why he won't sign a new deal), but a role he might accept at a 'bigger profile' club (Spurs).

I'd love to keep him here as a different option, but it's looking more and more likely he will be off. The stats above maybe show that it wouldn't be the end of the world?!
A quick look over your spreadsheet I noticed an error . Adama started and played 88 minutes against Liverpool.
 

Oh When the Wolves

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Quality of opposition doesn’t get taken into account mind you when traore is used 150 meters away from the closest wolves player and expected to assist and score
 

lostwolf

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Great work pulling that analysis.

I want to keep him, but I would not be prepared to lose the £22m on offer.

I still think investing that money in a better back-up striker or someone to give Mouts a rest would be well worth taking the hit on losing Adama - if he is not signing a new contract.
Yeah I'd echo that. I love the kid and I'd like him to stay, he's a unique if flawed talent, but he's clearly not keen to stay on the money we're offering so let's get some cash now instead of next to nothing in the summer. The money gained needs to be put to more than a Mouts stand-in for me though... let's add 20m of the TV cash / reserves to make it 40 odd million and get in a classy replacement, but one who offers something a little different to what Moutinho does, i.e. a very good dynamic central midfielder instead of a world class sitting midfielder (and that really is Moutinho, he could've held his own in a top top side).
 

JonahWolf

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Not quite that harsh maybe! :tearsofjoy:

I think he's a decent option to have. But a fully fit Neto is maybe a better one!

One thing I will be pleased about if he leaves is the debate about him. We can talk about other things!!
Hi there. You must be new to the mix.
There will have to be 100 new posts lamenting him leaving any time he does anything remotely useful.
 

WolfLing

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Should this be 6 losses? I think he has started the games we lost against Leicester, Spurs, Man United, Brentford, Man City and Liverpool.

A quick look over your spreadsheet I noticed an error . Adama started and played 88 minutes against Liverpool.

I've edited it. Thanks for spotting the error.

Doesn't really alter the numbers too much.
 
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WolfLing

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The games adama has started have been a much harder set of fixtures than the ones he hasn't. Anyone that can't see that is a plank.

Yes, they clearly are a more difficult set of fixtures on the whole.

But if you break them down into hard, medium and easier fixtures it is probably a better reflection.

Started - Hard - P5, W0, D0, L5, GF0, GA5 - 0PPG, 0GPGF, 1GPGA
Leicester (A) - 0-1 Loss
Spurs (H) - 0-1 Loss
Man Utd (H) - 0-1 Loss
Liverpool (H) - 0-1 Loss
Man City (A) - 0-1 Loss

Started - Medium - P2, W1, D1, L0, GF4, GA3 - 2PPG, 2GPGF, 1.5GPGA
Villa (A) - 3-2 Win
Leeds (H) - 1-1 Draw

Started - Easier - P3, W1, D1, L1, GF2, GA2, 1.33PPG, 0.66GPGF, 0.66GPGA
Watford (A) - 2-0 Win
Brentford (H) - 2-0 Loss
Burnley (H) - 0-0 Draw

Not Started - Hard - P3, W1, D2, L0, GF3, GA2, 1.66PPG, 1GPGF, 0.66GPGA
Spurs (H) - 2-2 Draw
Chelsea (H) - 0-0 Draw
Man Utd (A) - 1-0 Win

Not Started - Medium - P5, W4, D0, L1, GF7, GA4, 2.4PPG, 1.4GPGF, 0.8GPGA
West Ham (H) - 1-0 Win
Everton (H) - 2-1 Win
Southampton (A) - 1-0 Win
Palace (A) - 0-2 Loss
Southampton (H) - 3-1 Win

Not Started - Easier - P6, W5, D1, L0, GF12, GA2, 2.66PPG, 2GPGF, 0.33GPGA
Newcastle (H) - 2-1 Win
Forest (A) - 4-0 Win
Norwich (A) - 0-0 Draw
Brighton (A) - 1-0 Win
Sheffield United (H) - 3-0 Win
Brentford (A) - 2-1 Win

So Points Per Game (PPG) is higher when he doesn't start for all fixtures, hard, medium and easier.

Goals Per Game For (GPGF) is higher when he doesn't start for hard and easier fixtures, but higher when he does start in the medium fixtures.

Goals Per Game Against (GPGA) is lower when he doesn't start for all fixtures, hard, medium and easier.
 

WolfLing

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The fact that two defenders stay back and do not come up for a free kick because Adama is lurking around the centre circle does not really play out in statistics in my opinion, not to mention yellow cards, space he makes for others by attracting two or three defenders etc. I just think he is under used and often comes on too late too make a real impact.

But surely those situations you mention should either help us score goals, or help us not to concede goals.

The whole "he makes space for other players by attracting two defenders" narrative should play out in the stats if it actually made a difference.
 
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