Adama - impact analysis

[Lincoln-Wolves]

Thanks for volunteering!!

No chance...

 

[WolfInSheep'sClothing]

Yes, they clearly are a more difficult set of fixtures on the whole.

But if you break them down into hard, medium and easier fixtures it is probably a better reflection.

Started - Hard - P5, W0, D0, L5, GF0, GA5 - 0PPG, 0GPGF, 1GPGA
Leicester (A) - 0-1 Loss
Spurs (H) - 0-1 Loss
Man Utd (H) - 0-1 Loss
Liverpool (H) - 0-1 Loss
Man City (A) - 0-1 Loss

Started - Medium - P2, W1, D1, L0, GF4, GA3 - 2PPG, 2GPGF, 1.5GPGA
Villa (A) - 3-2 Win
Leeds (H) - 1-1 Draw

Started - Easier - P3, W1, D1, L1, GF2, GA2, 1.33PPG, 0.66GPGF, 0.66GPGA
Watford (A) - 2-0 Win
Brentford (H) - 2-0 Loss
Burnley (H) - 0-0 Draw

Not Started - Hard - P3, W1, D2, L0, GF3, GA2, 1.66PPG, 1GPGF, 0.66GPGA
Spurs (H) - 2-2 Draw
Chelsea (H) - 0-0 Draw
Man Utd (A) - 1-0 Win

Not Started - Medium - P5, W4, D0, L1, GF7, GA4, 2.4PPG, 1.4GPGF, 0.8GPGA
West Ham (H) - 1-0 Win
Everton (H) - 2-1 Win
Southampton (A) - 1-0 Win
Palace (A) - 0-2 Loss
Southampton (H) - 3-1 Win

Not Started - Easier - P6, W5, D1, L0, GF12, GA2, 2.66PPG, 2GPGF, 0.33GPGA
Newcastle (H) - 2-1 Win
Forest (A) - 4-0 Win
Norwich (A) - 0-0 Draw
Brighton (A) - 1-0 Win
Sheffield United (H) - 3-0 Win
Brentford (A) - 2-1 Win

So Points Per Game (PPG) is higher when he doesn't start for all fixtures, hard, medium and easier.

Goals Per Game For (GPGF) is higher when he doesn't start for hard and easier fixtures, but higher when he does start in the medium fixtures.

Goals Per Game Against (GPGA) is lower when he doesn't start for all fixtures, hard, medium and easier.

Breaking it down to that level of granularity
So do you really think the difference between us winning 1-0 at man united, and losing 1-0 against man united, the reason we scored despite having multiple more chances in the home game, was Adama?
I don't, and it bums me out that people can still think this.
Also, it would be interesting how this stacks up with games Marcal started, and games Marcal hasn't.

 

[WolfLing]

Breaking it down to that level of granularity
So do you really think the difference between us winning 1-0 at man united, and losing 1-0 against man united, the reason we scored despite having multiple more chances in the home game, was Adama?

I don't think that no. I'm not really for or against Adama. I would love to keep him as an option, but I'm realistic enough to know that he probably wont sign a new contract to be a bit part player here, even if that's probably the most effective way of using him.

I think he changes the dynamic of games, especially when he comes into a game from the bench.

Against United away, when Adama came on, for the first few minutes we completely lost control of possession and United were pressuring us. I thought it was the wrong move because of that, but then he ended up helping us to win the game.

I think brining him on towards the end of matches gives the opposition something else to think about, so relieves pressure on us. He started the games against Leeds and Liverpool and we were winning one and drawing the other when he came off. Both games saw us under the cosh at the end and conceding a late goal.

He came on at half time against Spurs in the cup and completely changed the dynamic of the game.

Even if you completely discount the games against the harder opposition, we still perform generally better against the medium and easier sides when he is used more sparingly, as an option from the bench.

The last 6 games, where we have won 5 and drawn 1 against a variety of opposition, he has come on from the bench in every game and played an average of 26 minutes per game. He has helped us hold onto a win or a draw, or helped to extend our lead in all those games.

Also, it would be interesting how this stacks up with games Marcal started, and games Marcal hasn't.

Do it!

 

[freezin]

Saw these 2 posts in the Adama thread and thought it was worth exploring in some more depth.

We've played 24 games so far this season, Adama has appeared in 23 of them.

He's been off the pitch for slightly less than he's been on it (1,138 minutes on, 1,022 off, not including any added time as that is too hard!).

Here are the numbers for goals and results with him ON and OFF the pitch.

View attachment 26398

14 goals for and 10 goals against with him ON the pitch

14 goals for for and 8 goals against with him OFF the pitch

On the face of it, we don't score any more or less when he's on the pitch, but we concede fewer goals when he's off the pitch. But the devil, as always, is in the detail.

In our 24 games this season, as a team, our record is:

• 12 wins
• 5 draws
• 7 losses

In the 23 games Adama has appeared in, for the minutes he is ON the pitch, the results have been:

• 9 Wins
• 8 Draws
• 6 Losses

In the 23 games Adama has appeared in, for the minutes he is OFF the pitch, the results have been:

• 8 Wins
• 7 Draws
• 4 Losses

Obviously these stats don't take into account the intricacies of each game, but on the whole, we are winning a little bit less, drawing a little bit more and losing a lot less without Adama on the pitch.

It's when you look at the games he starts and doesn't start that things become quite interesting:

For games Adama has started, our overall record in those games is:

• 2 wins
• 2 draws
• 6 losses

For games Adama hasn't started, our overall record in those games is:

• 10 wins
• 3 draws
• 1 losses

For games Adama has started, when he is ON the pitch, the results are:

• 3 Wins
• 2 Draw
• 5 Losses

For games Adama has come on as a sub, when he is ON the pitch, the results are:

• 6 Wins
• 6 Draws
• 1 Losses

So we win more, draw more and lose a lot less when Adama doesn't start and comes on as a sub. But it's clear that Adama has a positive impact on results, particularly in the last 5 games, when him coming on has helped contribute to wins against Man United and Brentford, 2 of the 3 goals against Sheffield United, scoring his first goal of the season against Southampton and almost getting another against Brentford (**** VAR!).

Stats that point to Bruno probably being right to use him as an impact sub. A role it appears he is unwilling to accept here (why he won't sign a new deal), but a role he might accept at a 'bigger profile' club (Spurs).

I'd love to keep him here as a different option, but it's looking more and more likely he will be off. The stats above maybe show that it wouldn't be the end of the world?!

Great work @WolfLing

I must say though, without the stats I just 'felt' that this was the situation.

I feel and the stats back up, that he is, and the team become one dimensional when he's on the pitch.

It's a great weapon to have. Bringing Adama on with 15 mins remaining to run at tired opposition, draw fouls and create chances (it's not his fault if nobody finishes them).

But... I'd swap him in a heartbeat for a player who could be as effective and influential, perhaps with different characteristics, in a team approach over 90 mins.