January 2024 transfer window thread.

[Bawtry Wolf]

We are “good” now, almost certainly, but i doubt anyone outside a select few within Wolves and the PL know whether we were “good” in the 21/22 accounts, which is the accounting period that counts. We had not sold Neves et al then.

In 20/21 we made a big profit. In 21/22 we made a £46m loss and we will have made a massive loss last year (22/23) with the autumn and winter spending. What the EPL are looking at now are combined losses from 20/21 to 22/23. They have asked all clubs to report earlier than they are required to publish their accounts but quite a while after the end of their financial years.

But our problem would have come at the end of 2023/24 when the original 20/21 profit figures dropped off. We sold all our players in this accounting year (23/24) so at a the end of this year 3 year cycle (May 24) we will be under the £105m. So for the 24/25 Year the £46m loss drops off and you add the profit from this year and no financial difficulties. It’s also why a loan with obligation works now as it goes into a different 3 year cycle. Wolves have preempted the FFP issues that would have occurred at the end of this year. If we had waited a season we would have probably sold more for less either now or in May to get them into this financial year. It’s also why people throwing mud at Wolves is classic whataboutery - we weren’t doing it particularly for this year so the timing of the sale of Neves and Nunes is immaterial.

The only other potential fly in the ointment is whether Fosun agree to underwrite losses. If they don’t we’re ****ed. However, for the purposes of FFP they can say they will but charge Jeff with running the club self sustainably. It does mean we let the likes of a Neto go every year but we can reinvest that in perhaps 5/6 players.

 

[greco wolf]

As for Joao Gomes €35m LOL

More like €60m little intermediary seeing if we would be looking to cash in. Every player of ours has a price and I think when you compare Gomes with Caicedo. Gomes is the better player. We are better off keeping him in this case. Value will rocket if he starts to go forward some more with his game.

In 12 months if he carries on will be worth 80m easily

Spurs can **** right off

 

[goldfish]

The summer i am sure will be the time we see firesales across the board. We were just a year earlier with ours as we had bought so heavily in jan 23. I suspect it will only be the likes of brighton, spurs, us now (dependent upon fosun investing to allow for 105m losses over the rolling 3 year), the promoted teams and man city that will have significant capacity to spend. On the radio this morning newcastle have to sell to buy, chelsea apparently have 40m capacity to spend before they breach, man u are in a mess. Villa who knows, they seem to keep living of the grealish money and sale of other youths, but that has to run out at some point.

The problem will likely be teams trying to offload players with high salaries, with the new club expected to take on those wages, which will then bugger up their ratios for profit and sustainabilty, different from current ffp calculations. The days of mid table teams taking on loads of players on 100k per week plus like where we were, and what forest are now doing is probably over as income versus wages wont work, meaning it will be very difficult for those teams wanting to get rid of high earners off their books unless players accept a reduction in salaries.

It almost feels like the whole league is due a reset and will bring us more in line with rest of europe in terms of spending capacity and what we can be spent on wages.

Imagine how competetive the Prem would be if the megabucks clubs did sod off and join a Super League. It'd be fantastic.

 

[Sussex Wolf]

NEwcastle also cant spend like us

Howe on FFP: It's stopped us doing business​

Newcastle would have already looked to enter the transfer market this January had they not been restricted by FFP, which restricts clubs to a maximum loss of £35m a year.
Speaking ahead of Saturday's game with Man City at St James' Park, manager Eddie Howe said: "In an ideal world, given the freedom to act we would have brought players in already. But we’re not in that situation – as Darren [Eales, Newcastle CEO] alluded to on Thursday, Financial Fair Play is a problem for us, and we’re having to navigate round that.
"That’s the position we’re in. When does [replacing injured players] become a problem? It’s already one, but we’re trying to manage through it.
"It’s a frustration for everyone connected with us. Certainly the owners are very ambitious, and they would like to help and improve the squad in any way they can. The rules and conditions we’re working under don’t allow that. That’s just how it is, we’re acting in the way we can."

It’s covered in this interview with their CEO. He also talks about their new partnership with Adidas, which I suggested would be their new partner, since Adidas had just signed a separate contract with PIF in Saudi.

https://x.com/nufc/status/1745461311083835411?s=61&t=oHKGj12hVBcK2ZfER6KcNA

 

[lets all have a disco]

Imagine how competetive the Prem would be if the megabucks clubs did sod off and join a Super League. It'd be fantastic.

You would soon get bored though if your main London away day highlight every season was Palace.

 

[Bawtry Wolf]

Or even the manager not select said player. GON clearly didn't fancy him to be the answer the scoring problems that we had at the start of the season. Wolves clearly haven't made allowances for said player to settle and adjust as they've sent him to another country, to another club and to another league where he will have to 'settle and adjust' again.

Not sure anyone has said 'he's ****', either. Maybe that's just you paraphrasing.

He just doesn’t fit GONs preferred style of play. He’d probably have worked with what Lage wanted or potentially Lopetegui but not GON. Many players and careers have been made and broken on a manager’s preference and style. It’s not saying Sasa is a poor player he’s just not what the manager wants for his preferred system and to accommodate Sasa maybe there were too many compromises else where.

 

[Werewolf of Wombourne]

For me would have to be an astronomical fee. He for me could be part of our midfield for a decade. Player I would not sell unless it matches the fee that Chelsea paid for Caicedo or more.

Cue the avalanche of posters claiming he isn't worth anything like that, we always overvalue our players and we should bite their hands off for £40m

 

[WolfLing]

As for Joao Gomes €35m LOL

More like €60m+ little intermediary seeing if we would be looking to cash in.

Every player of ours has a price and I think when you compare Gomes with Caicedo. Gomes is the better player.

We are better off keeping him in this case. Value will rocket if he starts to go forward some more with his game.

How much was Caicedo really worth though?

Chelsea paid way over the odds for him to get him in before the whole market changed.

When cash is available, prices rise. When it's not, they fall.

At the moment, no club can really spend as freely as they have in recent history, so transfer fees will fall back in line to the levels where they should have been in the first place.

You can't compare a potential fee for Joao Gomes, to a ridiculously inflated fee for Caicedo, as no one will pay that sort of money.

It's not necessarily about undervaluing or overvaluing a player, it's about what the buying cub is compared to spend, and what that enables you to do in terms of a replacement. Not is it good value compared to other transfers, but is it good value for us, at that moment.

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

How much was Caicedo really worth though?

Chelsea paid way over the odds for him to get him in before the whole market changed.

When cash is available, prices rise. When it's not, they fall.

At the moment, no club can really spend as freely as they have in recent history, so transfer fees will fall back in line to the levels where they should have been in the first place.

You can't compare a potential fee for Joao Gomes, to a ridiculously inflated fee for Caicedo, as no one will pay that sort of money.

It's not necessarily about undervaluing or overvaluing a player, it's about what the buying cub is compared to spend, and what that enables you to do in terms of a replacement. Not is it good value compared to other transfers, but is it good value for us, at that moment.

In the summer money is flush. Clubs are now worried about this present window…. We are under no pressure to sell ANY player. However it’s important to remember. Every player has their price

If spurs come a long and slap in €50m I think we would sell sorry that’s me being honest. Hobbs would find someone cheaper and maybe better

 

[SteveBullsKnee]

In 20/21 we made a big profit. In 21/22 we made a £46m loss and we will have made a massive loss last year (22/23) with the autumn and winter spending. What the EPL are looking at now are combined losses from 20/21 to 22/23. They have asked all clubs to report earlier than they are required to publish their accounts but quite a while after the end of their financial years.

But our problem would have come at the end of 2023/24 when the original 20/21 profit figures dropped off. We sold all our players in this accounting year (23/24) so at a the end of this year 3 year cycle (May 24) we will be under the £105m. So for the 24/25 Year the £46m loss drops off and you add the profit from this year and no financial difficulties. It’s also why a loan with obligation works now as it goes into a different 3 year cycle. Wolves have preempted the FFP issues that would have occurred at the end of this year. If we had waited a season we would have probably sold more for less either now or in May to get them into this financial year. It’s also why people throwing mud at Wolves is classic whataboutery - we weren’t doing it particularly for this year so the timing of the sale of Neves and Nunes is immaterial.

The only other potential fly in the ointment is whether Fosun agree to underwrite losses. If they don’t we’re ****ed. However, for the purposes of FFP they can say they will but charge Jeff with running the club self sustainably. It does mean we let the likes of a Neto go every year but we can reinvest that in perhaps 5/6 players.

I think the last part is key. Fosun since day one talked about long term being self sufficient but that obviously only works if the right players (at the right price) are recruited in the first place. The likes of Neto/RAN/Joao are the next lined up for sale in my view (the latter two won’t be this summer).

Granted it’s not exciting and to break into the top 6 or get results European football like that is almost an impossible task but if (massive IF) footballing authorities do actually start enforcing FFP/Sustainability it makes it much easier especially if we already have the infrastructure in place with scouting networks, per agents and partner clubs.

 

[WolfLing]

In the summer money is flush. Clubs are now worried about this present window…. We are under no pressure to sell ANY player. However it’s important to remember. Every player has their price

If spurs come a long and slap in €50m I think we would sell sorry that’s me being honest. Hobbs would find someone cheaper and maybe better

For the first time in a very long time, ALL clubs are having to think about the makeup of their squads, both short and long-term, in terms of both transfer spend and allocation of wages.

As it should be!!

 

[SteveBullsKnee]

Cue the avalanche of posters claiming he isn't worth anything like that, we always overvalue our players and we should bite their hands off for £40m

Or maybe certain posters look at it more realistically. Right here and now that probably is his value, however we won’t sell him as in 12 months time it’ll be closer to £60 million. If you’re using Neto as your example, people thinking we should get £90- 100 million plus for him are absolutely over valuing him.

 

[wolfgar]

Saw Chelsea linked with Evan Ferguson earlier, and the story suggesting Brighton would want £100 million plus. Highly unlikely, but the prospect of Chelsea handing Brighton a quarter of a billion pounds for Caicedo, Cucurella and Ferguson demonstrates why scouting for gems is pretty important.

Gomes and Ait Nouri are really not that far off Caicedo or Cucurella at all (infact I'd rather have Ait Nouri), and we nearly managed to get Fernandez for pennies before these idiots watched him play a few games at the world cup. Absolutely no way on earth we'd sell Gomes for £30 million, the guy could easily be worth double or treble that with a consistent run of good form over 12 months.

Edit - Brighton paid about £18/19 million for the three of them if you were wondering.

 

[SteveBullsKnee]

For the first time in a very long time, ALL clubs are having to think about the makeup of their squads, both short and long-term, in terms of both transfer spend and allocation of wages.

As it should be!!

Exactly this. Whilst it was through necessity rather than design it looks like we’ve got our house in order pro-actively and hopefully on that basis we will reap the rewards. Obviously only time will confirm that.

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

For the first time in a very long time, ALL clubs are having to think about the makeup of their squads, both short and long-term, in terms of both transfer spend and allocation of wages.

As it should be!!

Well said…. Thankfully Hobbs has got us into a decent place to move forward

Think of the money we will make & save on the deadwood alone

Guedes, Hoever, Fabio, Saszha, Podence, Hodge, Corbeanu, Bolla, Chem, Jordao, Jonny.

€50/60m huge wage savings too…..

That’s without offers for Neto and other star players

 

[SteveBullsKnee]

Saw Chelsea linked with Evan Ferguson earlier, and the story suggesting Brighton would want £100 million plus. Highly unlikely, but the prospect of Chelsea handing Brighton a quarter of a billion pounds for Caicedo, Cucurella and Ferguson demonstrates why scouting for gems is pretty important.

Gomes and Ait Nouri are really not far off Caicedo or Cucurella at all, and we nearly managed to get Fernandez for pennies before these idiots watched him play a few games at the world cup. Absolutely no way on earth we'd sell Gomes for £30 million, the guy could easily be worth double or treble that with a consistent run of good form over 12 months.

It just shows how trying to be sensible might be boring but could potentially help us in the long term. Chelsea are in the same position as Man United now, both have bundles of cash but both have recruited terribly and all the money in the world won’t solve that with FFP/Sustainability rules

 

[SmiffyWolf]

We'd spent quite a bit on Cunha etc in the January before last summer so all added up.

Do managers and their team count with their wages? O'Neill must be on a small % of what Lopetegui was on, another saving?

Is this the end of the prem having a huge advantage in terms of almost unlimited spending power on transfers?

I don't disagree we have spent money but so have nearly most of the other teams in the league,

Time will tell but if some of these teams don't sell players in the up and coming window then surely there is no point in us doing the same .
Otherwise what will they do dock about 15 teams 10 points next season and then have 4 teams and us for instance having a 10 point advantage .

Just seems like VAR the guidelines are not clear at all with FFP and they need to publish for me a December and June list of where teams are with their finances to then make it fair . Tough **** if you have maxed your spend out and you have to sell. We had to in the summer so it needs to be fair or we may as well just start splashing the cash .

 

[SteveBullsKnee]

I don't disagree we have spent money but so have nearly most of the other teams in the league,

Time will tell but if some of these teams don't sell players in the up and coming window then surely there is no point in us doing the same .
Otherwise what will they do dock about 15 teams 10 points next season and then have 4 teams and us for instance having a 10 point advantage .

Just seems like VAR the guidelines are not clear at all with FFP and they need to publish for me a December and June list of where teams are with their finances to then make it fair . Tough **** if you have maxed your spend out and you have to sell. We had to in the summer so it needs to be fair or we may as well just start splashing the cash .

Clubs would push back massively but I totally agree there should be more transparency around where clubs are.

 

[wolfgar]

It just shows how trying to be sensible might be boring but could potentially help us in the long term. Chelsea are in the same position as Man United now, both have bundles of cash but both have recruited terribly and all the money in the world won’t solve that with FFP/Sustainability rules

We do seem to have a pretty reasonable scouting/transfer setup these days so I feel like we are getting the right pieces in place. Infact if we hadn't got into bother with FFP in the summer, we'd quite probably be raving about how well Alex Scott and Viktor Gyokeres playing for us right now on top of what we have, so lets hope this summer is far more productive than the last. It should be?

I suspect Neto will go for as much as we can get in the summer, and we will try to bring in 4/5 really good players off the back off that. One or two with experience and a a few well scouted up and coming prospects? The squad gets stronger, the bank isn't broken and we then start to plan ahead as to who we sell/replace next summer?

 

[SeaWolf]

You would soon get bored though if your main London away day highlight every season was Palace.

And Chelsea, don't forget

 

[yateleywolf]

Only club spent any money is Spurs with their new stadium /corporate facilities plus tie in with NFL starting to show increasing revenue can bear fruit.

 

[wolvesaywe]

Could be a perfect storm for us in the summer

We're free of PSR restraints whilst many other clubs are right in the **** and will be offloading players on the cheap for us to gobble up

 

[loppers86]

In the summer money is flush. Clubs are now worried about this present window…. We are under no pressure to sell ANY player. However it’s important to remember. Every player has their price

If spurs come a long and slap in €50m I think we would sell sorry that’s me being honest. Hobbs would find someone cheaper and maybe better

There is something special about J Gomes. He’s young, very talented, looks right at home in the PL and will get better and better. His character and commitment to wolves in the face of huge pressure to change his mind is what sets him apart.

I agree every player has his price, but in our case we should value JG very highly indeed, and we should be looking to build our medium term future around him.

 

[SuperGran]

Everything gone quiet

 

[Slothmonkey]

As said above. The selling club sets the value, this is determined by mostly how important a player is to the team.

I have enjoyed our new way of spending. Its more interesting and the markets are more interesting in my opinion trying to find a gem. Lots of variables but when you find one it can prove to be very rewarding. Like we have seemingly done with Gomes.

 

[wolfgar]

Everything gone quiet

The calm before the storm waiting for that Che Adams bomb to drop

 

[Northampton_wolf]

The calm before the storm waiting for that Che Adams bomb to drop

building up for a percy bomb this weekend

 

[loppers86]

In 20/21 we made a big profit. In 21/22 we made a £46m loss and we will have made a massive loss last year (22/23) with the autumn and winter spending. What the EPL are looking at now are combined losses from 20/21 to 22/23. They have asked all clubs to report earlier than they are required to publish their accounts but quite a while after the end of their financial years.

But our problem would have come at the end of 2023/24 when the original 20/21 profit figures dropped off. We sold all our players in this accounting year (23/24) so at a the end of this year 3 year cycle (May 24) we will be under the £105m. So for the 24/25 Year the £46m loss drops off and you add the profit from this year and no financial difficulties. It’s also why a loan with obligation works now as it goes into a different 3 year cycle. Wolves have preempted the FFP issues that would have occurred at the end of this year. If we had waited a season we would have probably sold more for less either now or in May to get them into this financial year. It’s also why people throwing mud at Wolves is classic whataboutery - we weren’t doing it particularly for this year so the timing of the sale of Neves and Nunes is immaterial.

The only other potential fly in the ointment is whether Fosun agree to underwrite losses. If they don’t we’re ****ed. However, for the purposes of FFP they can say they will but charge Jeff with running the club self sustainably. It does mean we let the likes of a Neto go every year but we can reinvest that in perhaps 5/6 players.

I don’t really understand FFP but reading this made me think…

Your example is that we would prefer a loan with obligation because it pushes the payment to the next cycle. I have heard similar many times on here and i’m sure it’s often the case.

Approaching the end of a cycle - do clubs actually know where they stand?

Imaging we are going to buy Ekitike for £20m and we currently have £30m FFP wriggle room… then surely we would prefer to buy now, use up our ‘FFP surplus’ and leave us a full pot for the next cycle?

If we have a £50m FFP surplus we could invest it now on three players and sell them in the summer to push the income into the next cycle.

If we had a £75m surplus we could buy Evan Ferguson and loan him to newcastle for ridiculous money to let them get around their FFP issues.

Doesn’t this promote some kind of ‘futures market’?

Perhaps Fosun were very astute with our summer fire sale - it looks like there will be lots of opportunity for financial creativity and if you are good at it, then you can’t just get blown away by someone like newcastle investing a quarter of a billion.

I hated FFP because it seemed to stop us pushing on under Nuno, but now it is finally affecting the big 6 it really does seem to be able to level the playing field somewhat…

 

[Mile End Wanderer]

Everything gone quiet

Nothing ever happens on a Friday

 

[SA Wolf]

As said above. The selling club sets the value, this is determined by mostly how important a player is to the team.

I have enjoyed our new way of spending. Its more interesting and the markets are more interesting in my opinion trying to find a gem. Lots of variables but when you find one it can prove to be very rewarding. Like we have seemingly done with Gomes.

Sorry, but the buying club determines the value. The selling club can ask as much as it wants, but if there isn't a buyer at that price, the sale will not proceed.
It's like selling a house; the seller can ask whatever he wants, but if there isn't a buyer at that price, the seller either reduces the price or doesn't sell and keeps it.

 

[SA Wolf]

building up for a percy bomb this weekend

So is Percy.

 

[Northampton_wolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1745742296505590152

 

[Black Country Wanderer]

In 20/21 we made a big profit. In 21/22 we made a £46m loss and we will have made a massive loss last year (22/23) with the autumn and winter spending. What the EPL are looking at now are combined losses from 20/21 to 22/23. They have asked all clubs to report earlier than they are required to publish their accounts but quite a while after the end of their financial years.

But our problem would have come at the end of 2023/24 when the original 20/21 profit figures dropped off. We sold all our players in this accounting year (23/24) so at a the end of this year 3 year cycle (May 24) we will be under the £105m. So for the 24/25 Year the £46m loss drops off and you add the profit from this year and no financial difficulties. It’s also why a loan with obligation works now as it goes into a different 3 year cycle. Wolves have preempted the FFP issues that would have occurred at the end of this year. If we had waited a season we would have probably sold more for less either now or in May to get them into this financial year. It’s also why people throwing mud at Wolves is classic whataboutery - we weren’t doing it particularly for this year so the timing of the sale of Neves and Nunes is immaterial.

The only other potential fly in the ointment is whether Fosun agree to underwrite losses. If they don’t we’re ****ed. However, for the purposes of FFP they can say they will but charge Jeff with running the club self sustainably. It does mean we let the likes of a Neto go every year but we can reinvest that in perhaps 5/6 players.

We made an £18 mil profit in 20/21 followed by £46 mil loss and an expected £60 mil plus loss last year
20/21 was covid year so theres leeway there,that would leave us just under any problems with FFP
The sales last summer should leave us in profit for this season nullifying the loss of 20/21 profit for FFP purposes
Once we lose the 2 big loss making seasons we will be in a position of strength again but that will take 2 more seasons
So you can see why we cant compete for players with huge or even medium price tags right now

 

[WolvesAndCows]

Crook says £6m to get Adams from Saints

 

[North West Wanderer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1745742296505590152

interesting move. will certainly add steel. will pop to a couple of games for a look.

 

[Clipboard]

Crook says £6m to get Adams from Saints

If we can i think we should. Was totally against him when first mentioned but now i think a decent bet.

 

[Northampton_wolf]

noha lemina should be some movement on next week

 

[SuperGran]

noha lemina should be some movement on next week

Good.

 

[lets all have a disco]

6m for Adam's is actually ok...

 

[NothingButNeto]

Crook says £6m to get Adams from Saints

Where’s this said?