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Why season 22/23 is favourable for transfer dealings

wolvesjoe

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Essential reading is this very good summary by the Sky News reporter:


These very detailed notes and explanations show we are dealing with very high level planning and strategy by the elite of European football, and fully backed by the Cartel of clubs who will do anything to preserve their competitive advantage.

A cap of 70% for wages, transfer payments and agents' fees, as far as I can see, is the most ruthless way legally possible to prevent and disrupt any attempt by an ambitious club to assemble and retain a squad capable of making a challenge to the Cartel. The evil genius of the plan is to institutionalise a huge differential in what players are paid, and in how much can be used in making transfers.

(Whether or not these highly restrictive regulations are in fact legal may well be tested in the course of the next two years).

In reality, this has always occurred to a lesser degree, particularly since the rise of Man.City demonstrated how a club with rich backers could undermine the pecking order. The previous iteration of FFP was primarily concerned in closing that particular door. But this is the full Monty. Welcome to the Super League.

Wolves, of course, are one of the clubs targetted by these moves, with Fosun having enough clout to make use of every last possibility under the existing framework, indeed one of the principal targets.

However, the period of transition that has been allowed by UEFA over the next two seasons, allows for a last round of investment prior to the full implemenation of the monopolistic regulations. And this may well go a long way to explaining why Fosun have chose to act so dramatically in the transfer market at this point.

For this season, Wolves are allowed to spend up to 90% of turnover on wages and transfers, (with an 80% limit applied next season).

In addition, permissible losses have been doubled over any 3 year period to 60m euros, or £50million.

If Wolves have made a profit of say £40 million over the last two seasons, as a rough estimate, they would then have a pool of £90 million over and above this season's turnover to invest this season, coupled with the allowance of being allowed to increase the wage and transfer bill up to 90% of turnover. This represents a serious room to manoeuvre, which may not be available again.

(There remains a contradiction in the rules, which has yet to be clarified, that is to say how can a club make use of the losses allowance or of previous years' profits without breaking the 90% rule)

In other words, this season and next are probably Fosun's best chance to to make a run at the top 6, in terms of squad strength.

Fosun do have a back up insurance policy, it should be noted. Their transfer strategy of the last few years has left them with a astoundingly large amount of players with a tremendous asset value: ie younger players signed on longterm contracts who are amongst the best of their age group. Think Kilman, RAN, Collins, Neves, Nunes if he signs, MGW, Fabio, Neto, Guedes, all potentially worth major sums. Wolves have cleverly positioned themselves financially as being able to sell one or two players each year to renew the squad, when the full scope of the restrictions come into force. Its far from a solution, but at least gives some chance of challenging, even under these shameful anti-competitive measures.
 

wolvesjoe

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Of course, always remember that in the accounts, transfer fees are amortised over the length of the player's contract.

So only a fifth or a quarter of the transfer fee impacts on the profit and loss in any given accounts year. Having an approximate £90 m pool to operate from this year, means £200 m plus in terms of transfer fees this year, (although there would have be a balancing through sales in subsequent seasons).
 

wolvesjoe

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It is revealing that these new rules, evermore restrictive of the competitive principle, have provoked so little opposition and indeed even discussion.

But they effectively force clubs to run a profit with the 70 per cent cap, so perhaps that is the appeal to owners. A world of guaranteed profits represents a powerful pull.
 

Darvo

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Essential reading is this very good summary by the Sky News reporter:


These very detailed notes and explanations show we are dealing with very high level planning and strategy by the elite of European football, and fully backed by the Cartel of clubs who will do anything to preserve their competitive advantage.

A cap of 70% for wages, transfer payments and agents' fees, as far as I can see, is the most ruthless way legally possible to prevent and disrupt any attempt by an ambitious club to assemble and retain a squad capable of making a challenge to the Cartel. The evil genius of the plan is to institutionalise a huge differential in what players are paid, and in how much can be used in making transfers.

(Whether or not these highly restrictive regulations are in fact legal may well be tested in the course of the next two years).

In reality, this has always occurred to a lesser degree, particularly since the rise of Man.City demonstrated how a club with rich backers could undermine the pecking order. The previous iteration of FFP was primarily concerned in closing that particular door. But this is the full Monty. Welcome to the Super League.

Wolves, of course, are one of the clubs targetted by these moves, with Fosun having enough clout to make use of every last possibility under the existing framework, indeed one of the principal targets.

However, the period of transition that has been allowed by UEFA over the next two seasons, allows for a last round of investment prior to the full implemenation of the monopolistic regulations. And this may well go a long way to explaining why Fosun have chose to act so dramatically in the transfer market at this point.

For this season, Wolves are allowed to spend up to 90% of turnover on wages and transfers, (with an 80% limit applied next season).

In addition, permissible losses have been doubled over any 3 year period to 60m euros, or £50million.

If Wolves have made a profit of say £40 million over the last two seasons, as a rough estimate, they would then have a pool of £90 million over and above this season's turnover to invest this season, coupled with the allowance of being allowed to increase the wage and transfer bill up to 90% of turnover. This represents a serious room to manoeuvre, which may not be available again.

(There remains a contradiction in the rules, which has yet to be clarified, that is to say how can a club make use of the losses allowance or of previous years' profits without breaking the 90% rule)

In other words, this season and next are probably Fosun's best chance to to make a run at the top 6, in terms of squad strength.

Fosun do have a back up insurance policy, it should be noted. Their transfer strategy of the last few years has left them with a astoundingly large amount of players with a tremendous asset value: ie younger players signed on longterm contracts who are amongst the best of their age group. Think Kilman, RAN, Collins, Neves, Nunes if he signs, MGW, Fabio, Neto, Guedes, all potentially worth major sums. Wolves have cleverly positioned themselves financially as being able to sell one or two players each year to renew the squad, when the full scope of the restrictions come into force. Its far from a solution, but at least gives some chance of challenging, even under these shameful anti-competitive measures.
Excellent work ... thanks
 

Very Proud (AKA Still Proud)

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Sooner or later there's going to be a serious legal challenge to these restrictions, they are so obviously designed to maintain the status quo for the elite clubs and restrict competition. Some very rich owners, ours included, will get fed up having to pick their way through loopholes year after year.
 

old wittonian

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Sooner or later there's going to be a serious legal challenge to these restrictions, they are so obviously designed to maintain the status quo for the elite clubs and restrict competition. Some very rich owners, ours included, will get fed up having to pick their way through loopholes year after year.
UEFA may soon discover that some of the club owners have more money than it has and it will run out of cash in a legal battle before they do.
 

wolvesjoe

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There's a very important supplement to the above, which has only been confirmed in the past couple of weeks.

Very well explained here by Telegraph football writer, Sam Wallace:

I think it is behind a paywall, so brief summary:

Paramount Global have agreed a $1.5 billion package for European competition broadcasting rights from 2024 to 2030, with a Spanish speaking countries to follow.

These funds will not be divided throughout the leagues but will only be accessed by Uefa participants.

At the same time, it seems likely that the disbursement of national league incomes will be increased, ie more money will be handed out to clubs from lower divisions.

So from 2024 onwards, the financial gap between clubs that regularly compete in the established Uefa competitions and the majority who do not, will be extended and institutionalised.

Coupled with the new Uefa Financial Sustainability rules, fully operative from 2025, the Cartel of 13 or so clubs in Europe, who qualify year after year will enjoy higher ratios of financial advantage over the next level of aspirant club, (the Newcastle, West Ham, Wolves, Villas etc of the Premier), ranging from 2:1, up to 4:1.

The journalist has been discussing this issue with the European League group, which campaigns for the competitive principle in the European Leagues, and this has allowed him to look even more closely at some of the other consequences of the American deal. Essentially, the dominant clubs of ALL leagues will benefit from this extra funding, meaning the Dutch, Swiss, Portuguese, etc, etc as well. While the income distribution of the Premier remains meritocratic to a high degree, the new Uefa alone income from the US will disproportionately boost the advantage of the dominant clubs in the smaller leagues.

Personally, I have followed these financial issues for a long time, and written about them on the Mix. It is harder and harder to see how much will be left of any competitive possibilty will remain for clubs like Wolves once these extra changes are implemented. The next 2 to 3 seasons are quite likely the last chance for Wolves and other clubs of similar clout to break into the top 6, even if that chance is, in any case, fairly remote. In my view, everyone will have to reassess if they are going to follow such a rigged sport, and if so, with what kind of motivation.

It may well be that the last best hope will be a legal challenge, jointly mounted by clubs and other interested parties.
 

Jefe

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I don't get this part of the article:

"The Football Earnings Rule will allow clubs to lose €60m over three years - double what was permitted under Financial Fair Play. Clubs will be allowed to sustain an extra €10m in losses a year if they are deemed to be "in good financial health".

As part of The Squad Cost Rule spending on wages (players and head coaches), transfers and agent fees will be capped at 70 per cent of a club's revenue. This will be assessed over a calendar year and not a season, so spending in the summer transfer window will be included in the calculations."

Unless I'm missing something, the Squad Cost Rule renders the Football Earnings rule moot? The vast majority of losses made by a Football club are from transfer fees and salaries (and presumably infrastructure like academies and stadium upgrades don't count as per FFP), so how could any club lose €60m when Squad Cost Rule essentially forces you to make a profit every season?
 

wolvesjoe

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I don't get this part of the article:

"The Football Earnings Rule will allow clubs to lose €60m over three years - double what was permitted under Financial Fair Play. Clubs will be allowed to sustain an extra €10m in losses a year if they are deemed to be "in good financial health".

As part of The Squad Cost Rule spending on wages (players and head coaches), transfers and agent fees will be capped at 70 per cent of a club's revenue. This will be assessed over a calendar year and not a season, so spending in the summer transfer window will be included in the calculations."


Unless I'm missing something, the Squad Cost Rule renders the Football Earnings rule moot? The vast majority of losses made by a Football club are from transfer fees and salaries (and presumably infrastructure like academies and stadium upgrades don't count as per FFP), so how could any club lose €60m when Squad Cost Rule essentially forces you to make a profit every season?
Its a very good point, and I havent yet been able to find a clarification for this obvious contradiction.

It could mean an end to the exemptions for stadia and academies, although that sounds infeasible.

Perhaps the 30% allowance for other running costs may not cover those costs in all cases, although again that sounds
unlikely.

Or perhaps it is just a transitional measure while existing contracts run down, and new ones are negotiated to fit in with the new rules?
 

Olivergoldblack

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Don't worry about these rules. Go spend 500m on players to win the league and get champions league.

Pay some top accountants to hide the money in various columns on the balance sheet (pull some financial 'lever's, like Barca and Everton etc...)and make the accounts so complicated it takes Uefa 3 years to sift through it - by that time you're an established champions league club with massive revenues. So we'd be banned from Europe for a year, pay a fine, focus on the domestic comps try and win the league. The next season we've still got our talented squad of superstars and back in the champions league. Sorted.
 

ombyman

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Don't worry about these rules. Go spend 500m on players to win the league and get champions league.

Pay some top accountants to hide the money in various columns on the balance sheet (pull some financial 'lever's, like Barca and Everton etc...)and make the accounts so complicated it takes Uefa 3 years to sift through it - by that time you're an established champions league club with massive revenues. So we'd be banned from Europe for a year, pay a fine, focus on the domestic comps try and win the league. The next season we've still got our talented squad of superstars and back in the champions league. Sorted.
This sounds ridiculous but is essentially what tax dodgers actually do, create a web of companies and trusts, bamboozle those that check and play silly buggers if anyone sniffs around.
The guys advising the club owners in tax and financial matters will be on significantly more income than those doing the digging....you mostly get what you pay for
 

Olivergoldblack

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This sounds ridiculous but is essentially what tax dodgers actually do, create a web of companies and trusts, bamboozle those that check and play silly buggers if anyone sniffs around.
The guys advising the club owners in tax and financial matters will be on significantly more income than those doing the digging....you mostly get what you pay for
Exactly, theres so many examples of clubs being imaginative with the accounts to get around FFP. Man City, Barca, Everton, Villa all up to stuff and got away with it.
We should hire PSG's accountants, how they found 200m for Neymar then nearly the same for Mbappe and finding Messi's wages every month from that league is pure witchcraft.

Anyway don't let the rules get in the way of spending, just factor in you'll have to pay some top accountants too.
 

wolvesjoe

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Exactly, theres so many examples of clubs being imaginative with the accounts to get around FFP. Man City, Barca, Everton, Villa all up to stuff and got away with it.
We should hire PSG's accountants, how they found 200m for Neymar then nearly the same for Mbappe and finding Messi's wages every month from that league is pure witchcraft.

Anyway don't let the rules get in the way of spending, just factor in you'll have to pay some top accountants too.
Agreed, but I also think the system at elite level is now moving beyond tax evasion and false forms of accounted income.

There will be an inbuilt mechanism that, season after season, gives the top European group, 13 clubs, and in the Premier, 6 clubs, a huge competitive advantage and guaranteed profits. This is the Holy Grail of the Super League, without the unpopularity of the Super League.

The mid-range clubs will be regularly disrupted through transfer window Viking raids and younger fans will naturally gravitate towards clubs who at lease have a chance of winning something.

All leagues will become modelled on the Spanish game at its very worst.

We are close enough to this scenario already, and these fiendishly clever new moves will consolidate the monopoly grip on the top level of the game.
 
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ombyman

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Exactly, theres so many examples of clubs being imaginative with the accounts to get around FFP. Man City, Barca, Everton, Villa all up to stuff and got away with it.
We should hire PSG's accountants, how they found 200m for Neymar then nearly the same for Mbappe and finding Messi's wages every month from that league is pure witchcraft.

Anyway don't let the rules get in the way of spending, just factor in you'll have to pay some top accountants too.
I dont know how much money they get for it, but someone at PSG managed to get their club badge to now be a general part of Nike's range, so it isn't just for football fans, which must be worth some serious dosh for them
 
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