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The Championship - Run in thread

Discussion in 'Molineux Mix Archive' started by Bossworld, Mar 26, 2015.

  1. Bossworld

    Bossworld Just doesn't shut up

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    Seeing as it's a quiet international week...

    Firstly, sorry if this has been covered in detail elsewhere, I had a quick look on the front two pages and couldn't see anything. But, as you'll know from the 2PPG thread, I love a good stat, and since F365 have removed their run in table (and the rest of their comprehensive stats database), we'll do something on here instead.

    Here's a table showing the run in fixtures for the clubs in the top 8. Barring a miracle run from Nottingham Forest, and a slump from the teams above us, it's down to the 8 teams listed as to who'll finish in the play offs and promotion spots.

    [​IMG]

    Arguably, teams fighting for their lives at the wrong end of the table will also shape the results. Fixtures between teams in the current top 8 are highlighted in red, while fixtures involving teams in the bottom 8 are highlighted in green.

    In terms of potential banana slips, Wigan play 4 of the top 8. For potential kingmakers, Forest also play 4 of the top 8. Further down again, Brighton also play 4 of the top 8.

    Of the current top teams, Middlesbrough play 3 of their immediate rivals. It's probably safe to argue that Derby have got the easiest run in on paper, given that their two toughest fixtures come at home.

    Here's another view, this time, red signifies games against teams in the top half, whereas green signifies games against teams in the bottom half.

    [​IMG]

    --

    Anyone want to start hazarding a guess as to how many points the teams will pick up from these games?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 26, 2015
  2. StefanWolves

    StefanWolves Just doesn't shut up

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    Good post. Insightful.

    I think we will finish on 81.
     
  3. andyc225

    andyc225 Just doesn't shut up

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    We can perhaps afford 1 defeat, which I imagine will come at Middlesbrough. We need to be looking at least 5 wins including Ipswich at home.
     
  4. JW

    JW Just doesn't shut up

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    Bournemouth are home . Unbelievable
     
  5. northnorfolkwolf

    northnorfolkwolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Good thread Bossworld - thanks! One I will be referring to over the coming weeks. It just confirms for me that it's 5 + 3 (us,Bees & Ipswich) for the last place. Interesting that 6 of the 8 have home games on the last day all v lower league teams. Ipswich at Blackburn could really help us, though we need to be ahead of Bees on the final day imo. Looks like Blackburn all over again on 2 May - watching the game + listening to the radio!!!!!!!!
     
  6. WarstonesWolf

    WarstonesWolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Good thread thanks - nail biting few weeks ahead I think we will get 79 points
     
  7. Bossworld

    Bossworld Just doesn't shut up

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    Not to be too dramatic, but I think it's crucial we win the next three, particularly as I'd fancy Brentford, Boro and Norwich all to win this weekend. Do that, and then take our chances on winning 2 of the last 4.
     
  8. Captain Bertorelli

    Captain Bertorelli Senior Member

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    I've got a feeling that quite a few points will be dropped by some in the top 8.
     
  9. Boss Hogg

    Boss Hogg Just doesn't shut up

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    Great post Bossworld, thanks for your efforts.

    Think we will fall a couple of points short. Those run-ins look good for Bournemouth & Middlesboro
     
  10. North West Wanderer

    North West Wanderer Just doesn't shut up

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  11. Dewsburywolf

    Dewsburywolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Are you sure?
     
  12. wolvesjoe

    wolvesjoe Just doesn't shut up

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    There are so many variables and dynamics here that any statistical "moment" can easily change drastically with one set of games. That might reduce as time goes on, if the top group strengthen their position over the next 2 games, but equally it might become more chaotic and unpredictable.

    If the results go a certain, possible way this weekend, we could end up with a four or five point spread over the top 8 for the last five games, for example. Then it gets very hairy for all teams, and the relative position probably wont matter that much for the final position.
     
  13. WarstonesWolf

    WarstonesWolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Shame we are not playing this weekend momentum lost with a weeks break.
     
  14. Tom S

    Tom S Senior Member

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    Great post, I think it will come down to whether we beat Ipswich to decide if we make it or not. I would point out that whilst Derby's run looks easier it's going to be difficult to turn around their current form.
     
  15. goldeneyed

    goldeneyed Just doesn't shut up

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    To get to sixth we will need a minimum of four wins and two draws from our last seven. Its doable - only just, but of course we will depend on a lot of luck with injuries as we have such thin back up. Lose at Forest and it would mean the odds would get a lot longer. Win and things will look very good indeed. Our poor goal ratio may cost us at the finish.Middlesbrough away presumably a loss. Ipswich at home a must win.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 27, 2015
  16. Tarcisio Mifsud

    Tarcisio Mifsud Just doesn't shut up

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    Very difficult to forecast, so we should move one match at a time. If Wolves manage to have a very good results, collecting 6 points from the Good Friday and Easter Monday matches against the Forest and Leeds, than we should be in with a shout for a play-off place, as Ipswich and Derby should drop points over that period.
     
  17. Baboon

    Baboon Has a lot to say

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    The run in could be fascinating this season with so many clubs in with a realistic chance of success.

    This is the part of the season when surprise results seem to occur with greater frequency and I don't foresee anything different this time. Brentford managing only a 2-2 home draw against Millwall last week was perhaps a forerunner of what may happen. In this division, apart from the woeful Blackpool, there is not a huge gulf between the capabilities of the teams with those fighting for survival often upping their form to the detriment of those at the top of the table. Expect the unexpected. Applecarts will be upset.

    Although Derby are without a win in their last six games they look a quality outfit to me and I will be amazed if they fail to finish in the top six. Realistically I believe that to secure a play-off spot we will need to finish above both Ipswich and Brentford. If we can maintain our current excellent form (38 points from 19 games starting with Sheffield W. away on 13th December) and continue with an average of two points a game to finish on 78 that should be sufficient. The stand-out fixture for us is Ipswich and a victory against them could be vital.
     
  18. Mr Wolf

    Mr Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Does nobody think going away to Forest, Blues, Middlesbrough out of the next 4 with our away record will see us out of contention?

    I'd take 7 points right now
     
  19. OLDGOLD

    OLDGOLD Just doesn't shut up

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    It could certainly be all over before we welcome Mick! However in this league, this season anyone can beat anyone virtually. Derby and Bournemouth look to have ethe best run in When we play Millwall and Wigan it could be season over for the both of us. We can do it,sadly though, I still think we will fall just short. I can see Forest giving it a good go (unless they want us to help stop Derby escaping),and the game against Blues will no doubt have its moments. I can't see us getting beyond say 77 points, and it won't be enough.
     
  20. Beastier

    Beastier Has a lot to say

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    To be fair, our run-in could be a lot worse. The two games of note being Middlesborough away & Ipswich - & to be fair we need an opportunity to make some ground upon them & they certainly won't be relishing coming to Molineux.

    I would say the remaining fixtures seem quite kind
     
  21. manchesterwolf17

    manchesterwolf17 Just doesn't shut up

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    An interesting post, I just don't the league is possible to call at all. With the exception of maybe Blackpool at home, any game is genuinely winnable or losable. That's what stands this league apart from the Premier League in regards to entertainment, IMO of course
     
  22. Golden Moth

    Golden Moth Has a lot to say

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    All this speculation could fizzle out with a couple of defeats.

    On the other hand......... a run of seven consecutive wins is not impossible, which would make automatic not inconceivable.

    Anyone else suffer from OCESS? (Obsessive Consideration of Extreme Scenarios Syndrome.)
     
  23. jrpb-3

    jrpb-3 Just doesn't shut up

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    over the last 10 games our form has been better than all three teams immediately above us, Brentford, Ipswich and Derby, keep that up for the next 7 and we will probably make the playoffs
     
  24. OsloWolf

    OsloWolf Just doesn't shut up

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    What? The stats for our last 8 away games: 4-2-2, which leaves us 5th in the away form table, which is above, Bournemouth, Brentford, Derby and M'Boro.
     
  25. maws

    maws Just doesn't shut up

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    I think we will finish in 76 points and in previous years that's enough
     
  26. CTA91

    CTA91 Just doesn't shut up

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    Hmmmm, maybe Middlesbrough will do a Derby? Hopefully hitting their low against us ;) Watford & Norwich won't be easy for them and we won't lie down
     
  27. WarstonesWolf

    WarstonesWolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Very common at this end of the season!! no known cure I'm afraid
     
  28. Mr Wolf

    Mr Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Cardiff won along with draws at Bolton, Brighton & defeat at Norwich & Bournemouth isn't it?
     
  29. Poole Wolf

    Poole Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    One way is to look at our final seven games. The other way is to look at the gap. The gap should now be inspiring us and worrying the opposition.
     
  30. northnorfolkwolf

    northnorfolkwolf Just doesn't shut up

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    I still think we will get something from all the games except Boro away. I've always thought we'll beat Ipswich and finish above them so imo it's Brentford's results which will decide if we can get 6th?
     
  31. Sedgley Gold N Black

    Sedgley Gold N Black Just doesn't shut up

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    I think even 3 points out of the aways would keep us in contention tbh.

    Brentford have to go to Fulham who are still in need of points to stay up, Forest and Derby won't be easy and Sheff Wed aren't bad at home.

    Ipswich have Bournemouth which you'd expect them to lose but we can make up ground on them when they come to us and the last two games are against good sides.

    Need 6 points out of the next 4 games anything more is great imo.
     
  32. 1972 i began

    1972 i began Just doesn't shut up

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    well if we cannot get 6 points from 4 games we definitely dont deserve to be in contention.
     
  33. Bossworld

    Bossworld Just doesn't shut up

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    [​IMG]
    imgurl

    (Number of fixtures against the other top 8 sides won't be affected by tonight's result). Be interesting to see how Derby get on given their run in now.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 3, 2015
  34. Essex Wolf

    Essex Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    First hurdle down mate and whilst footballs a funny old game I'd say Forest looked the toughest of those away games. Before today Forest had won all their home games under Freedman beating some good sides along the way.

    Blouse are no great shakes but come derby games league position counts for little I accept. And I honestly believe Wolves can beat Boro.
     
  35. StefanWolves

    StefanWolves Just doesn't shut up

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    Bournemouth are home and dry.
     
  36. Essex Wolf

    Essex Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Could well be right SW but is it just me who believes they get a lot of luck and given some very dubious decisions?
     
  37. Leigh72

    Leigh72 Just doesn't shut up

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    They just downright cheat
     
  38. JW

    JW Just doesn't shut up

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    Drew with Leeds 2 weeks ago
     
  39. Bossworld

    Bossworld Just doesn't shut up

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    Updated table.

    [​IMG]

    Derby vs Brentford is huge.
     
  40. Wolves Heathen

    Wolves Heathen Has a lot to say

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    Bournemouth & Narwich top 2, Watford and Boro 3rd & 4th, us and Derby to complete the Top 6.
     

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