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No need to panic......

Discussion in 'Molineux Mix Archive' started by saturday boy, Nov 7, 2010.

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  1. saturday boy

    saturday boy Just doesn't shut up

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  2. Burton Wolf

    Burton Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    OMG lets get to the bookies and back Sunderland to go down we'll make a killing!!!!
     
  3. Hrothgar

    Hrothgar Just doesn't shut up

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    interesting! who's panicking anyway!!?
     
  4. Michellis

    Michellis Just doesn't shut up

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    It's in The Mirror so it must be true.
     
  5. Battleship

    Battleship Just doesn't shut up

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    Here's the forecast:

    1. Arsenal
    2. Manchester United
    3. Chelsea
    4. Liverpool
    5. Tottenham
    6. Aston Villa
    7. Everton
    8. Manchester City
    9. Stoke
    10. Newcastle
    11. Birmingham
    12. Wigan
    13. West Brom
    14. Bolton
    15. Fulham
    16. Wolves
    17. Blackburn
    18. West Ham
    19. Sunderland
    20. Blackpool

    I have made a note in my calendar to revive this thread on the 22/5/11.

    Edit: current league table:

    Code:
    [COLOR=#000000]1     Chelsea     10     24     25
    2     Man Utd     11     11     23
    3     Arsenal     11     11     20
    4     Man City     11     5     20
    5     Newcastle     11     6     17
    6     Bolton     11     1     15
    7     Tottenham     11     -1     15
    8     Sunderland     11     -1     15
    9     West Brom     11     -5     15
    10     Everton     11     2     14
    11     Blackpool     11     -6     14
    12     Fulham     11     1     13
    13     Aston Villa     11     -4     13
    14     Birmingham     11     -2     12
    15     Blackburn     11     -2     12
    16     Liverpool     10     -4     12
    17     Stoke     11     -6     10
    18     Wigan     11     -12     10
    19     Wolves     11     -7     9
    20     West Ham     11     -11     7[/COLOR]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 7, 2010
  6. I've scanned that article and the predictions are quite plausible.
     
  7. leedswolf

    leedswolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Battleship your current PL table is incorrect ..............
     
  8. DoomWolf

    DoomWolf Guest

    If they took their formula and applied it to the stats as they were at this point last season, I wonder how their prediction for that season would compare to the actual outcome.
     
  9. Bossworld

    Bossworld Just doesn't shut up

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  10. DawleyWolf

    DawleyWolf Just doesn't shut up

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  11. mikic

    mikic Just doesn't shut up

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    If we can get a point against Arsenal, we will have got 4 from the horrendous run of games, which is superb, however it is the games after Arsenal that will determine whether we will stay up.
     
  12. Battleship

    Battleship Just doesn't shut up

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    Oops!

    Code:
    1     Chelsea     11     22     25
    2     Man Utd     11     11     23
    3     Arsenal     11     11     20
    4     Man City     11     5     20
    5     Newcastle     11     6     17
    6     Bolton     11     1     15
    7     Tottenham     11     -1     15
    8     Sunderland     11     -1     15
    9     Liverpool     11     -2     15
    10     West Brom     11     -5     15
    11     Everton     11     2     14
    12     Blackpool     11     -6     14
    13     Fulham     11     1     13
    14     Aston Villa     11     -4     13
    15     Birmingham     11     -2     12
    16     Blackburn     11     -2     12
    17     Stoke     11     -6     10
    18     Wigan     11     -12     10
    19     Wolves     11     -7     9
    20     West Ham     11     -11     7
     
  13. saturday boy

    saturday boy Just doesn't shut up

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    No they aren't, only the points total at the end of the season is used to determine final league places and subsequently who gets relegated.
     
  14. FLEET WOLF

    FLEET WOLF Just doesn't shut up

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    Personally I think the look of that final table is highly unlikely, but I would take our predicted finish now.
     
  15. Big Saft Kid

    Big Saft Kid Just doesn't shut up

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    I think we'll be very lucky to get a draw against Arsenal -- more likely we'll lose -- and get only 1 pt against Bolton (cue the moaners), who no doubt everbody will expect us to beat, even though they are 5th in the league and playing some great football.

    But we will then go on an unbeaten run, including 5 wins, until after Christmas, when we will lose to Liverpool.

    I think the prediction for us of 16th is about right, but I don't see Sunderland being relegated; more likely Blues.
     
  16. Haggstone

    Haggstone Has a lot to say

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    :confused: The games after Arsenal include every game till the end of the season and will obviously have a pretty major bearing on our total points tally?

    Reading between the lines though if we don't pick up a reasonable amount of points between now and christmas we are in all probability going to be relegated. Optimism is brilliant and helpful to the course but lets not kid ourselves here.

    As we are looking at maths, teams at the bottom of the table at christmas more often than not end up being relegated.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 8, 2010
  17. Battleship

    Battleship Just doesn't shut up

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    Here's the outcome:

    Code:
    1       Man Utd       38       41       80              
    2       Chelsea       38       36       71              
    3       Man City       38       27       71              
    4       Arsenal       38       29       68              
    5       Tottenham       38       9       62              
    6       Liverpool       38       15       58              
    7       Everton       38       6       54              
    8       Fulham       38       6       49              
    9       Aston Villa       38       -11       48              
    10       Sunderland       38       -11       47              
    11       West Brom       38       -15       47              
    12       Newcastle       38       -1       46              
    13       Stoke       38       -2       46
    14       Bolton       38       -4       46              
    15       Blackburn       38       -13       43              
    16       Wigan       38       -21       42              
    17       Wolves       38       -20       40              
    18       Birmingham       38       -21       39              
    19       Blackpool       38       -23       39              
    20       West Ham       38       -27       33
    Verdict: some obvious flaws, but generally very good: forecasting has been especially difficult in a year in which only 72 points were required to win the league, but 40 points were sufficient for survival.

    However - the authors of the model need to understand why they can so badly underestimate teams like Man City and Sunderland (before the sale of Bent!).

     

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