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McCarthy's teams- stronger in the second half?

Discussion in 'Molineux Mix Archive' started by Toon Wolf, Dec 10, 2008.

  1. Toon Wolf

    Toon Wolf Guest

    I'm sure someone (Deutsch?) can find the stats to prove me wrong or right, but the impression I have is that McCarthy's sides tend to be better in the 2nd half of the season. I'm pretty sure that is the case with us the last 2 seasons, and I think that when he got Sunderland promoted it happened as a result of them really pushing on after Christmas.

    If this IS true, and the trend continues, is it possible for us to have a better second half of the season? Frankly, if we can improve we'll go up as champions, but I would be happy if we managed to just keep playing as we are. It is quite possible that we will have a slight drop off in performance, but should that be enough to see us finish in the top 2?
     
  2. dr cool

    dr cool Guest

    we are a young team, blues are ageing... it augurs well.

    drc
     
  3. Not sure about Sunderland but i'm pretty sure this has only become 'apparant' in the few recent games where teams have gone 1-0 up on us - excluding last night of course. So i think its down to tactics on the oppositions front.

    I will wait for the stats, but take Forest for example, we scored 4 in the first half and only 1 in the second.

    But against Blues + QPR we were 1-0 down. They backed off and tried to hold on for the victory which in due course gave us the freedom to attack - Blues with some success, QPR without. This is what creates the 'illusion' of us finishing as the stronger team i think.

    Of course, the youth of our team etc will also have an effect but every team we play are going to be fit - they are proffesional footballers. So i don't buy into that argument too much.
     
  4. Akaman

    Akaman Just doesn't shut up

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    Certainly while he's been managing us a lot of it has been to do with his transfer activity in January. With MM seeming to be quite happy with the squad and perhaps not looking to add three or four players this year, we might just level out this year. Which will be brilliant because if we're like we have been so far this season, promotion beckons!
     
  5. bod101

    bod101 Admin & No.4

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    i think it all boils down to players, if we have two fully fit out and out wingers like the start of the season we will be ok.
     
  6. Toon Wolf

    Toon Wolf Guest


    Sorry jb, I think you've missed the point of my thread! I'm not talking about the 2nd half of a game, I'm talking about the 2nd half of the SEASON, ie post-Christmas.
     
  7. Del Woppio

    Del Woppio Guest

    A breakdown of goals scored and conceded this season. Blue denotes cup, purple league.

    [​IMG]

    For - 23 league goals first half, 24 second half
    Against - 14 league goals first half, 14 second half.

    EDIT - I'm an idiot, and only read the thread title. Sorry.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 10, 2008
  8. Ha! Just realised. Sorry mate. Still, the points in my comment are valid to an extent...
    Nice that Del joined in on the party to make me feel better though! ;)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 10, 2008
  9. Mr Zuki

    Mr Zuki Guest

    Gary Breen gave an interview last year(around about this time I think) in which he said that McCarthy's training regimes were geared towards making his teams fitter and stronger after christmas. This obviously didn't happen last year but certainly gives credence to your point.
     
  10. Toon Wolf

    Toon Wolf Guest

    Nice to see you admit what we all knew anyway! :D

    I think I should have made the point of the thread more obvious in the title since we have so many people on here with ADHD and only read the title rather than the post content!

    Anyway, I don't think we are any better or worse 1st half or 2nd of games, but I do get the sense that Mick likes his teams to get stronger as the season goes on. That maybe a false impression but I do remember reading something along the lines of what Mr Zuki posted.
     
  11. Axle

    Axle Guest

    I think we improved last season after the signing of Ebanks-Blake didn't we? It was that terrible run before Christmas that cost us. After January I thought we were OK.
     
  12. johnybig32

    johnybig32 Just doesn't shut up

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    I wish we'd got Routledge on loan...Looks like we would defo have a stronger 2nd half to the season.

    I think it will happen. we have depth and variety, as Keogh showed last night.

    If MM adds some more "quality" which im sure he will then theres only one place for us to go...
     
  13. marrs-guitar

    marrs-guitar Just doesn't shut up

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    McCarthy in the Championship:

    Wolves 07/08
    First 23 games: 35pts 7th
    Last 23 games: 35pts 7th
    no change

    Wolves 06/07
    First 23 games: 35pts 10th
    Last 23 games: 41pts 5th
    6pt improvement

    Sunderland 04/05
    First 23 games: 43pts 3rd
    Last 23 games: 51pts 1st
    8pts improvement

    Sunderland 03/04
    First 23 games: 35pts 10th
    Last 23 games: 51pts 3rd
    16pts improvement
     
  14. Mr Wolf

    Mr Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Well researched Marrs, lets hope the trend continues.
     
  15. 1. We could probably afford to be 10 points worse in the second half of the season that we 'were' in the first half and still go up automatically, esp if we win on Saturday.

    2. We could be 3rd before Christmas.

    It's a funny old game.
     
  16. So on average, he's had a 7.5 point improvement.

    So, let's say we don't get any points on Saturday (which will mark the half way stage) - that works out to what we have now plus an extra 7.5 points which takes us to 107 points (rounded down).

    So - if he carries on his average post-Christmas improvement, we're looking at least 107 points at the end of the season, possibly 111 if we win on Saturday, and we round up that 0.5 to 1.

    111 points? Yeah - I'll take that please.

    Relax lads, we're nearly there!!
     
  17. Del Woppio

    Del Woppio Guest

    Cheers Marrs, good stuff.
     
  18. Mr Wolf

    Mr Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    I hope so, but at the moment it's looking like 1st, 2nd and 3rd will reach record points.

    Out of interest as it seems we have a poll/table for everything else what is the highest total amount of points the top 3 have earned over the years?
     
  19. Chiswick_Wolf

    Chiswick_Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Very interesting. I think it shows Axel's point (who I would have agreed with prior to Mars's post) is actually inaccurate. We didn't get in the playoffs because the team failed to do what McCarthy's teams traditionally do - which is improve during the second half of the season. Injuries had a lot to do with that in my opinion.

    If we have a better second half than first half of the season I think we will be in cloud-cuckoo land!
     
  20. Over the last 2 games, Reading and Blues have accumulated more points than we have, but I see no reason to suggest that they will continue to do that.

    I think it would be foolish to write off the likes of Sheff Utd and Burnley so soon - there's still a long way to go. And of course, Reading and Blues are 'due' an injury crisis soon, aren't they? We've had ours and then some. :D

    I would guess that there wouldn't have been too many season where the top 3 got as many points as 2001/2002 - and we know what happened there!!
     
  21. marrs-guitar

    marrs-guitar Just doesn't shut up

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    1997/98
    Forest...................... 94pts
    Middlesbrough............ 91pts
    -----------------------------------
    Sunderland................ 90pts (lost playoff final)
    Charlton.................... 88pts (won playoff final)
     
  22. Ulver

    Ulver Just doesn't shut up

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    You guys really should trade futures. Your forecasting models and calculations would make you fortunes.
     
  23. If we win on Sat and then our second half is 12 points worse than our first half, we will have 94 points.
     
  24. saturday boy

    saturday boy Just doesn't shut up

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    Last season we lost our most important player for the latter half of the season - I think we would have accumulated more points with Kightly than without him and that would have ensured that Mick's record of second half of the season improvements would have been maintained.
     
  25. Toon Wolf

    Toon Wolf Guest


    Thanks for doing that marrs- excellent work. Interested to see that the facts generally back up my impression that McCarthy's teams generally improve in the 2nd half of the year. However, it is also worth noting that none of his teams have ever started this well so maybe an improvement is less likely. It's looking like all we have to do in reality is maintain our form and we're up (stating the obvious I know)- improve and it'll prove to be a cakewalk! As someone said, even with a 10-12 point drop off we could still go up automatically. We drop off by more than 12 points and the chances are we've either lost half our team to injury or we're in a completely false position now.
     
  26. Deutsch Wolf

    Deutsch Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    I see my deputy did some sterling work. Sorry, but I've been away from my PC for the last couple of days.

    As you can see, McCarthy's teams do generally do better in the second half of the season, however as it stands we will find it very difficult to improve on our current points/game ratio.

    Merely playoff standard form from here *should* see us win the title in any case. Talk of 92+ points for automatic promotion is ridiculous, you will not get all three teams maintaining this form for the rest of the season, and we hold a significant advantage over Reading in terms of points accrued and Birmingham in terms of squad age and fitness.
     

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