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How realistic are our promotion hopes?

Discussion in 'Molineux Mix Archive' started by Big Saft Kid, Jan 12, 2015.

  1. Big Saft Kid

    Big Saft Kid Just doesn't shut up

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    Lots of talk on here about going up via the play-offs, some even thinking auto is still possible. But realistically...?

    2 points per game over the season is usually a guarantee of automatic promotion. We are way off that at the moment, and even if we averaged 2 points over the remaining 21 games, that would give us only 82. That would certainly get us into the play offs, which is a lottery. So I guess we would need at least 50 points from the last 21 games to be reasonably sure of making the top 2. We now have a long run of games against middle of the table to lower table opposition. Any chance of our doing what we did last season, and winning 17 of the last 21?
     
  2. Edgmond Wolf

    Edgmond Wolf MolMix Poster of the Season Runner Up 2011-2012

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    Lets get thTransfer Window out the way first....then ask your question again ;)
     
  3. Tring Wolf

    Tring Wolf MolMix Poster of the Season Winner 2011-2012 and r

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    Still think it will be play-offs at the absolute best as it will be a struggle to make up 8 points or so on 2 or more teams. This team is still very young and a work-in-progress so I don't think it's unreasonable to expect us to have another difficult spell at some point in the season.

    I personally think the top four will be Derby, Middlesbrough, Watford and Bournemouth which leaves the likes of ourselves, Ipswich, Norwich, Brentford and possibly Cardiff chasing the final two play-off spaces.

    We do have half a chance though, especially if we continue to invest well in this window and can steer clear of injuries.
     
  4. Clifton Wolf

    Clifton Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    This window is genuinely huge. If we can make 3 additions that will improve our best 11 then we definitely have a chance, if not I think we will be around 7/8th.
     
  5. arctic rime

    arctic rime Just doesn't shut up

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    This league is nothing special , we are well in the mix . Bring it on. [emoji41]


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  6. Ewok vs Wolf

    Ewok vs Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Hoping for a good transfer window then who knows.
    Considering we had an awful run of form to be only 8 points off top is crazy, if we finish the season strong i think auto is possible, the teams above us will have dips in form to come and there will be some teams who bottle it when it gets to the business end of the season.
     
  7. Wichenford Wolf

    Wichenford Wolf Senior Member

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    I hope that we can retain our top half position and I would consider that to be realistic and a successful first season back. I know people are still talking about five or six new players but I don't believe we are going to try to buy our way out of this league. IMHO, the purchase of a young striker with potential (a la Dicko) will be supplemented by further development of our young existing squad rather than by major purchases.
     
  8. Macman

    Macman Just doesn't shut up

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    Let's just enjoy the ride. If we are Play Off material come the end of season then great; if we are bordering on the Play Offs come the last few games then great too. It's just a huge relief (so far) that we have stopped the bad run we had. Well done to all.
     
  9. WolvesAreBoringOnCeefax

    WolvesAreBoringOnCeefax Moderator

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    Finishing 5th or 6th is doable, I think anyone entertaining ideas of automatic promotion is being a tad optimistic, put it that way...
     
  10. Sedgley Gold N Black

    Sedgley Gold N Black Just doesn't shut up

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    It's extremely tight this year.

    Last season after 25 games there was 10 points between 1st and 4th and 17 points between 1st and 8th. However this year there is 4 points between 1st and 4th and 8 points between 1st and us in 8th.

    We'd need to go on a spell of stringing 5 or 6 wins in a row, beat those teams at the top when we play them and we really need to have a few big wins to improve our GD as it could well come down to that given how tight it is.

    I think we are capable of the above though if we can keep our key players fit, strengthen a little in the window and avoid Mike Jones as a referee.
     
  11. Tring Wolf

    Tring Wolf MolMix Poster of the Season Winner 2011-2012 and r

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    The other big thing for me is that we have to improve our record against teams struggling at the wrong end of the table.

    With the exception of Derby and the second half at Brentford away, we have generally been pretty competitive against most of the sides in the top half.

    We have, however, dropped far too many points against sides towards the bottom or who have been really struggling when we played them (Millwall, Blackpool, Wigan, Blues, Brighton, Rotherham, Huddersfield). If we had won just two or three of those games, we would be right in the mix for an automatic spot.

    If KJ can devise a way for us to break down more of these struggling sides (especially those who come to park the bus), then again we may well have half a chance. Saturday's game against Blackpool will be an interesting benchmark in this department.
     
  12. FLEET WOLF

    FLEET WOLF Just doesn't shut up

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    Tring, for once I will disagree with you. I think Derby will win it and that Middlebrough will probably be second. I think Ipswich and Bournemouth will be third and fourth, with us scrabbling around for the other two places with probably Norwich, Brentford and Watford (although I have a feeling they will fade away)-at least two teams will go on a run from mid-table from now on in.
     
  13. kentish wolf

    kentish wolf Groupie

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    We have found some great prospects from the academy, I would love to go up this season but as long as we finish well, then another season in the chump would not be a bad thing IMHO.
     
  14. Big Saft Kid

    Big Saft Kid Just doesn't shut up

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    Yep, that's pretty much my reading of it too. Let's say we were to win 7 of the next 9 in our run of games against average opposition. If we did that we could easily be challenging with still a dozen games left. I dunno, I've just got a very good feeling about where we are right now, exactly like I had last season. The key for me has been how the defence has suddenly become very mean again, and especially the completely unexpected blessing of Iorfa and Hause (and KJ seeing the light with Stearman and Price).
     
  15. Mr Wolf

    Mr Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    I can't see any 2 teams running away with it this year & 8 points with everyone still to play each other again is not exactly much. The thing we have is the players from last season know how to do it & we are looking solid again. Funny nobody mentions Birmingham who are on a great run also.

    Interesting stat from yesterday that at this stage Moyes had 1 more point than Van Gaal & was 7th where as Van Gaal was 3rd, so who knows how it will pan out for us & the league total point wise.
     
  16. Edgmond Wolf

    Edgmond Wolf MolMix Poster of the Season Runner Up 2011-2012

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    Agreed hence my post
     
  17. WellyWolf

    WellyWolf Guest

    Play offs at a push. But if not this year then if we recruit one or two and we came the same team then next year is our year I believe.
     
  18. Optimistic Hove Wolf

    Optimistic Hove Wolf Has a lot to say

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    A very realistic aim, IMO. All teams will have blip, even those at the top. Remember when we lost a 13 point lead to some team down the road?

    I think that in KJ we have a very astute manager who knows what is required and, as long as he is backed financially, will take us up. Look at what he did last January. I, for one, was totally astounded by him shifting on as many forwards as he did but he was right in his judgment and we won the league at a canter. Who is to say that we can't do the same again? We are 8 points off top spot.

    Keep the faith, for out of darkness cometh light......
     
  19. JamesWolves

    JamesWolves Just doesn't shut up

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    Finishing 6th is an overachievement
     
  20. stever

    stever Just doesn't shut up

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    Yeah, i would agree with this. Another year in this league will help Hause , Ifora and the other young players get much needed experience under their belts. Promotion for me might quash their growth
     
  21. PREM.L.L

    PREM.L.L Just doesn't shut up

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    At the minute we're in the "Knack", with good shrewd signings we could keep that going. When we are in the ascendancy though we need to make that pay. We've started doing that a bit since that horrendous run but we need to really put other teams out of it and hopefully new additions will help us do that more often.

    I said on another thread that keep it going and we could win the whole thing.....which is true, 8 points is nothing in this league which is pretty tight. If we do keep it going and the new additions play well, we go up, simple as that.
     
  22. Essex Wolf

    Essex Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Until such time as it is mathematically impossible for Wolves to go up automatically or reach the play offs then promotion is still a possibility.

    The disastrous run Wolves suffered saw them really drop off the running for a while and whilst recent results/performances have seen a vast improvement the club is now playing catch up and with having a minus GD the chase is a little harder.

    What is so annoying is the number of lost points. Add those to the disaster run and you realise Wolves could quite easily be at the very least 4 points better off.

    But Wolves still have to play all the teams above them once more, bar Brentford, and take 3 points of them and who knows what might be?

    A bit more foresight, planning, ambition and urgency just might have seen Wolves in a better position than they are right now but there is nothing that can be done to change what was so lets hope things are done better in the future?
     
  23. Penk Wolf

    Penk Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Too early to go up. If we got promoted, we'd need at least 10 players to be able to compete and 1. We wouldn't but that many and 2. Changing the whole team never works.
     
  24. SmokeyGB

    SmokeyGB Just doesn't shut up

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    8 Points behnd top two, who we have to play.. That could come down to 5, which i'm sure they have to play each other sooner/later.
    For me, we are still in the mix for anthing between 1st and 16th place. Much prefer to be in top 2 and let the rest fight it out.
     
  25. Bradders

    Bradders Senior Member

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    Providing Mike Jones doesn't get put in charge of the play-off final we have half a chance :)
     
  26. Paul76

    Paul76 Just doesn't shut up

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    Realistic if we show ambition in this transfer window. We've got a great coach. He just needs the backing now. Although, i could never imagine Kj doing a Arry Redknapp even with a '' treasure chest '' at his disposal.

    I think kj will keep building over the next few transfer windows. Keep bringing the kids through, utilising the loan market and bringing in quality when available.
     
  27. goldeneyed

    goldeneyed Just doesn't shut up

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    We have a chance and its all in the balance this January. If Afobe comes in that is great but we need at least another couple of quality signings. If they don't come in and we get unlucky with injuries we could struggle to get into the top six. However with the right reinforcements even top two is not totally out of reach, though it will be very tough to make up the lost points and our very poor goal average doesn't help either. We need some 3-0s and 4-0s under our belt to change that, starting next Saturday.

    My optimistic forecast is that we squeeze 6th place. Anything better and Jackett/the team will deserve all the plaudits available. Don't think we have the experience, squad depth and the resilience to be top two if I'm honest but in football you never know. If we get on a roll....
     
  28. Fifty Niner

    Fifty Niner Just doesn't shut up

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    I certainly wouldn't be complaining about back to back promotions.

    Would M&M make the same mistakes as last time round though? If so, I see another humiliating PL season.

    Pre season, I think most fans thought finishing mid table with periods in or near the play-offs would be good given the recent turmoil of the club.
     
  29. grumpy old wolf

    grumpy old wolf Senior Member

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    I hope as we all do that we finish as high as possible and get promoted, although
    another year to further strengthen the team would not be a bad thing so once we have enough points to be clear of relegation we can sit back and enjoy the ride , I wish .
     
  30. Dan G WWFC

    Dan G WWFC Just doesn't shut up

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    We are still in contention. That's what's the important part of the start of the season.

    It's the blip that's made it hard for us. If you add 5 or 6 points to our total as if we didnt have that blip then we are still going for promotion. It's that tight.

    If we strengthen well. With Afobe, plus one more attacker and a midfielder or defender then we are ready to have a go and see what happens!
     
  31. Essex Wolf

    Essex Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    So when is the right time then Penk?

    If Wolves carry on building on this current squad and in say 2 seasons time have a top quality championship side that take the club up won't new players be needed then?

    Should Wolves gain promotion this season there is no doubt in my mind several new additions would be needed but nowhere near 10 but just my view on it.
     
  32. northnorfolkwolf

    northnorfolkwolf Just doesn't shut up

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    8 0f the next 9 games are against sides below us. These may have been games we have previously struggled in but we have to be optimistic and think they are all eminently winnable, esp now as we seem to have turned a corner. I think top 6 is realistic and then who knows?
     
  33. Tony

    Tony Just doesn't shut up

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    If you look at the table as it stands now, the 5 game 'blip' becomes more understandable given the circumstances, and should be less painful! It could be said that it was bad luck to play all those teams consecutively! The only team outside the top 6 now who beat us then was Forest and at the time they were playing well when we were weakened.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 12, 2015
  34. Big Nosed Wolf

    Big Nosed Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    No one can be certain just how many of the current side could hack it for more than a few games in the PL.

    Of the few that remain from the last stab at it there are not any and even if there is the odd one it won't be enough.

    The rest fit into the 'potential' bracket and with so many only just breaking in the responsibility on those could set them back years or damage careers.

    To stay in the PL is both vital for 'progress' and hugely difficult when two million 'strengthening' is seen as adequate.

    I have a feeling KJ is proving a tad too good at what he was required to do. The way he has placed the squad handily for a return has outpaced the rest of the 'committee', the remainder of which are spent forces and pen pushing hoop jumpers all resided over by an out of depth owner.

    Not only has KJ 'done a Mick' he has done it with a more 'modernist' approach.

    Promotion is never too early unless when you get there you come straight back down and even then the money helps.

    Should promotion be missed this time or next I wouldn't be at all surprised to see KJ leave on his own terms having attracted some bigger admirers.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 12, 2015
  35. Essex Wolf

    Essex Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    It's often said what a wonderful thing hindsight is but this isn't an excuse or reason I think Wolves can have during their blip. The writing was clearly on the wall the squad needed quality additions and they were not there. The loss of Dicko sadly highlighted how important he was to the team but with no like for like type replacement, well we know the rest.

    After Wolves 1-2 win at Leeds they went on a disastrous run where, to me at least, it was evident what was wrong and I cannot believe KJ did not have an inkling as to the reasons why things were so bad?

    You are right BNW and hence why I always say I assume nothing. However whenever Wolves gain promotion, should they do so, they will need several new additions but that will be the case whether it be this season, the next or any one after that.
     
  36. Hebburn Wolves

    Hebburn Wolves Just doesn't shut up

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    agreed mate plus i dont think they would have the money to spend on such a large overhaul. imho if wolves went up they would have to spend in the region of 30m-40m quid.
     
  37. North West Wanderer

    North West Wanderer Just doesn't shut up

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    Financially I hope we do and that's about it.

    Saturday 3pm is for football. Not Sunday 4pm
     
  38. North West Wanderer

    North West Wanderer Just doesn't shut up

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    How has he done a Mick?
     
  39. BrummieNick

    BrummieNick Just doesn't shut up

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    I'm with you there. I actually said the last time we went up. I'd rather stay in the championship and try and win it again. The premiership is hell hole,set up and run for the benefit of half a dozen clubs. This opinion is growing within football. I know fans of other clubs who feel the same way.
     
  40. Penk Wolf

    Penk Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Regardless of finances, I don't want to watch a season of us struggling week in week out.
     

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