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City in the Semi?

Discussion in 'Molineux Mix' started by Super Ted, Mar 17, 2019 at 1:49 PM.

  1. Super Ted

    Super Ted Has a lot to say

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    Drawing Man City in the semi finals may be our best chance of beating them and ultimately give us our best opportunity of winning the FA Cup.

    When the semi finals are played City will still be competing in three competitions with a difficult CL fixture away at Spurs in the week following. They may well rotate players and priorities the CL over the FA Cup.

    However, if we were to meet them in the final they would have completed the PL and know if they were through to the final of the CL. Even if City were in the CL final there is a two week break between the two matches so no need to rest or priorities players.
     
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  2. Flaneur

    Flaneur Senior Member

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    No chance, if we play them in the semis we might not get to the final.

    However, if we get to the final we will win no matter the opponent as far as I'm concerned
     
  3. Chris H

    Chris H Senior Member

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    Caught in two minds about this.

    Facing them in the semi could be our best chance of winning it.

    But, if we avoid them, finish 7th and meet them in the final it would guarantee us Europa League qualification for next season no matter what the result in the final. Anyone other than City in the final and we’d potentially miss out on Europe.
     
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  4. reanswolf

    reanswolf MolMix's Manchester United Cheerleader-in-Chief

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    Is it better to not get to a final than lose in it?
     
  5. Knocker Lite

    Knocker Lite Has a lot to say

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    Avoid City and we become second favourites for the trophy, draw them and we become the outsiders of four.
     
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  6. BarryM

    BarryM Senior Member

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    Betting odds don't win football games.

    Winning football games does!
     
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  7. Shifnal Wolf

    Shifnal Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    No chance, I want to go to a final win or lose

    I hate the fact the semis are at Wembley anyway! **** poor greed by the FA to pay for the crap stadium!
     
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  8. Knocker Lite

    Knocker Lite Has a lot to say

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    Bookies are rich, punters are poor... For a reason.
     
  9. Hanbury_Wolf

    Hanbury_Wolf Groupie

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    exactly. Our best chance is clearly to avoid them

    Separate dilemma about reaching the final and losing though (better to have loved and lost and all that)......................You simply will never get that choice......imagine being able to chose only going to games that Wolves won. It would actually be pointless. that said, 2 full days on the **** in London with the Wolves are better than 1!
     
  10. Hanbury_Wolf

    Hanbury_Wolf Groupie

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    but they do reflect probability
     
  11. BarryM

    BarryM Senior Member

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    I'm still struggling to see what the reference point is?

    Who cares whether we are 4/6 or 10/1

    Likelihood is we may have to beat Man City to win the thing so why does the bookies odds on us make a difference to us Wolves fans?
     
  12. Knocker Lite

    Knocker Lite Has a lot to say

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    Because they form an independent reference to the chances of winning an event.
     
  13. Hanbury_Wolf

    Hanbury_Wolf Groupie

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    I'm actually starting to agree with this logic now. For Wolves to win the cup, someone is going to have to play out of their skin and beat city.

    If this was wolves that would be a 4/1 shot combined with a closer to Evens to beat one of the others in the final
    If we avoided them we could get an Evens shot in the semi followed by City in this final = same odds
    If we avoided them in the semi and final that would be two evens shots (but you'd then have to factor in Man city getting beat by Watford or Brighton) which would increase the odds of that combination of events.....
     
  14. BarryM

    BarryM Senior Member

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    We avoid City and as you say become second favourites but don't go on to lift the cup.

    We draw City in the semis and as you say become the outsiders but we go on to lift the cup.

    I know I would prefer to win the thing rather than just become second favourites by avoiding the tough semi final.
     
  15. VancouverWolf

    VancouverWolf Just doesn't shut up

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    I was hoping Watford would meet City in the semi but reading the OT makes a lot of sense.....maybe our best chance to win the cup is meeting City in the semi.
     
  16. Hanbury_Wolf

    Hanbury_Wolf Groupie

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    we can just do a simple experiment and see what happens to the odds at 4 o clock today!

    Here they are as of now


    upload_2019-3-17_15-10-28.png
     
  17. Hanbury_Wolf

    Hanbury_Wolf Groupie

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    still don't get why as it stands, Watford are twice the price of Wolves
     
  18. rincewind

    rincewind Just doesn't shut up

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    Only in a very general sense. They reflect the bookies exposure to loss which is related to the probability of an event in punters minds.
     
  19. Jez

    Jez Senior Member

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    Let’s hope Watford beat them then in the semi final, if they are concentrating on CL.? And we, result pending, play Watford in the final ?!
     
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  20. tin hat capitan

    tin hat capitan Well-Known Member

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    Ideal scenario for me is city playing watford in the semi and us playing the winner. Dont care who we draw from millwall and brighton
     
  21. AndyWolves

    AndyWolves Has a lot to say

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    To win the fa cup we will have to beat city at some point.

    If we finish 7th then if we get city in the final we'll know we're in Europe whatever happens.

    I think, theoretically City will be "easier" in the semi finals.
     
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  22. George AlooGobi

    George AlooGobi Groupie

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    Trying to tempt punters to back Watford. Probably facing a larger payout on Wolves at the moment
     
  23. Hanbury_Wolf

    Hanbury_Wolf Groupie

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    I partly agree with this. Where some actual science can be applied to probability then there will be professional punters that will drive the price to a more reflective point. This can be applied to cup draws in particular.

    Most people actually believe that it's better to lose 2-1 away in a European first leg than draw 0-0. I can guarantee that bookies prices don't reflect this opinion even if the general punter bets to this theory.
     
  24. Will Wolf

    Will Wolf Senior Member

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    My understanding is that only winning the FA Cup would guarantee Europa League if we don’t finish 7th.
    7th place gets priority over FA Cup finalist I think?
     
  25. Will Wolf

    Will Wolf Senior Member

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    Imagine if we finish 8th to Watford and get Watford in the final. Beating them would take the last Europa League place
     
  26. Chris H

    Chris H Senior Member

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    Yeah that’s my point. Finish 7th and play City in the final and we get Europe win or lose. Anyone other than City or us win the final and we would miss out.
     
  27. Will Wolf

    Will Wolf Senior Member

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    Ah ok I understand now. Fingers crossed for Watford/Brighton/Millwall then in the semi
     
  28. WednesburyWolf

    WednesburyWolf Has a lot to say

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  29. andyc225

    andyc225 Just doesn't shut up

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    To win the trophy, we have to beat Citeh. It's not totally impossible.
     
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  30. Hanbury_Wolf

    Hanbury_Wolf Groupie

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    millwall have gone almost unmentioned until this point!!!!!!!! 1-0
     
  31. WarstonesWolf

    WarstonesWolf Just doesn't shut up

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    2-0 milwall
    We have to beat city to win the cup.so semi or final.
     
  32. Rhoswolf

    Rhoswolf Just doesn't shut up

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    NO, having said that never experienced it, but losing semi-finals has to be worse and done that a few times.
     
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  33. Wolf316

    Wolf316 Just doesn't shut up

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    Avoid City in the semi and we may not even have to play them in the final
     
  34. Ponty

    Ponty Just doesn't shut up

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    Indeed, let Watford beat them and get over-confident that after doing so the final will be easy.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2019 at 4:28 PM
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