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Oh dear, even John Bray has fallen into the trap

Discussion in 'Molineux Mix Archive' started by molineux man, Nov 30, 2008.

  1. molineux man

    molineux man Senior Member

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    BBC man John Bray does his maths...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/606/A44315660

    ...and fails miserably.

    No John, 84 points would guarantee us third place :rolleyes:
     
  2. Hereford Wolf

    Hereford Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Oh well...is it really very important?
     
  3. jrpb-3

    jrpb-3 Just doesn't shut up

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    It's like the old puzzle question.
    You're in a race and overtake the person in third place what place are you now in
     
  4. WolvesAreBoringOnCeefax

    WolvesAreBoringOnCeefax Moderator

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    Second. Obviously.

    ;)

    (The wink stops anyone having a go)
     
  5. theinvisibleman

    theinvisibleman Administrator

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    is it a lap race? :D
     
  6. Tikkaspecial

    Tikkaspecial Guest

    My God!! Here we go again. I can't believe I manage not to get drawn in to posting for years and then I post twice on the same subject!

    For those [wrongly] thinking they are showing how mathematically adept they are, maybe you could actually think about it for a second [before posting].

    The point he is trying to make is this: If the team that finishes third THIS year has 83 points (and he uses history to give this as an indicator to what 3rd place teams have, on average, achieved), then the team that DOES finish second will, by the very fact that they are second, have more than 83 points (which is at least 84).
     
  7. molineux man

    molineux man Senior Member

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    Er, no.

    84 is a meaningless number in terms of 'guaranteed promotion'. You need at least 84 points? Yes you do. But you also need at least 70 points, at least 60 points, at least 50 points.

    The only number that is meaningful is the number you need at least to make second. That is most certainly not 84. more like 88 or even 90.
     
  8. Tikkaspecial

    Tikkaspecial Guest

    He prefaced his "guarantee promotion" statement with "So history and the laws of probability suggest"

    I agree 88 points is probably more realistic, especially this year with three horses in the running, but (again) he is saying that history/probability suggests otherwise. That's all!
     
  9. Anglian Wolf

    Anglian Wolf Guest

    I would probably agree with this.

    What I wouldn't agree with is John Bray's assertion that Dave Jones should be dropped in favour of Dave Edwards. Got bags of time for Edwards and he is a very useful impact player off the bench. However, Jones and Henry have formed a very useful partnership that has been one of the cornerstone of our success so far this season.
     
  10. John

    John Guest

    Good to see John Bray has more sense than the web mongs on here.
    To be promoted we will need to have better goal difference, or one more point than the team that finish third. We will then be in second, and don't need to finish above ourselves.
     
  11. jrpb-3

    jrpb-3 Just doesn't shut up

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    In a way both arguments are right and wrong. If the team in second finished on 88 points and the team in third on 83. Then to finish second the team that did finish second only really needed 84 points, the team that finished third would have needed 89 point to finish second though. To finish second you need to beat what the average second place points are, but then you are the team in second so only need to beat the third place team ;)

    The complication comes if you take off 5 points from 89 to get 84 you are giving up to 4 points to any one other team (+ 1 elsewhere) if those go to the team that finish third then that puts them back above you.

    Anyway all these calculations can only give you an indication of what might happen, not any guarantee of what will happen this season or how many points will be needed.
    We just need to match what the best teams below us do (less the current points gap -1) to keep our lead and we will finish top
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 1, 2008
  12. jrpb-3

    jrpb-3 Just doesn't shut up

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    obvious but wrong ;)
     
  13. Chiswick_Wolf

    Chiswick_Wolf Just doesn't shut up

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    Correct. Both arguements are feasible its mearly interpretation. One assumes that the 2nd place is already defined (ie a historical table). Wolves become a floating "25th team" and essentially the requirement is what is needed to usurp that team in second place.

    The other is imagining a situation where Wolves are already part of an existing "real time" division.

    Take this scenario into account. Wolves are a really good but really lazy team and only ever want to do the minimum that is required of them. So taking the existing season into account, they only ever want/need to be one point ahead (or one goal to be picky) ahead of the third place team Reading, to maintain their 2nd placed position.
     
  14. PabloWolfo

    PabloWolfo Guest

    Basically, so many posters on this site rejoice so much in proving other posters wrong, that they can't see that as well as being correct, mathematically, other poster's logic is equally as sound, depending on nothing more than semantics and syntax.

    In essence, you're all retards.
     
  15. Atlas 1951

    Atlas 1951 Guest

    The third placed total is a poor indicator, not only because it conveniently eliminates a promotion chaser from the equation, but also because a team that is guaranteed a play-off place while unable to attain second place will take their foot off the gas and rest players for the semi-final.

    Anybody that thinks eighty-four points will be enough obviously wasn't supporting Wolves in 2001/2.
     
  16. Welford Wolf

    Welford Wolf Groupie

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    Yes - but are we safe from relegation yet?

    Can Forest catch us?

    One step at a time boys......


    He he
     
  17. Jonzy54

    Jonzy54 Just doesn't shut up

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    As opposed to She She or even HEE HEE!;)
     
  18. Bedford Wolf

    Bedford Wolf Guest

    As with all science questions, tha answer depends on your point of observation.

    If you see Wolves as being in the top two places, we'd need to get the magical 84 points.

    If you see Wolves as being outside of the top tw places, we'd need to get the 88 points.

    Pablo is quite right, we're all retards for wasting time on this. I'm with Welford, we need to avoid relegation (50points) and qualify for the play-offs (75 points) before we get too carried away.
     
  19. welshwolf

    welshwolf Senior Member

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    glad that has been cleared up then
     

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