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Wolves Summer 2022 Recruitment Plan by Dan Butler

gullykular

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Just wanted to bring to everyone's attention an excellent piece of work by aspiring scout/analyst Dan Butler. You may have already come across this as it has been shared widely across Twitter.

It showcases a detailed analysis of the current squad, where improvements are required and the profile of players we should be looking to recruit if we are to transition to a back four system. He then identifies a number of options at centre back, defensive midfield, attacking midfield and centre forward.

It's an incredible piece of work and a real labour of love having spoken to him on the subject yesterday on the Wolves Fancast YouTube channel, but shows where there can be value in the market away from our usual route of Mendes/Portugal.

It's a long read, so buckle yourselves in and enjoy:

 

wolfgar

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I'd certainly agree with the general conclusions e.g. we need a CB, a progressive CM (and a defensive one if Neves leaves) as well as another striker. It's a good read, thanks for sharing.
 

gullykular

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I note it says donk and semedos contracts expire in 2023, is that correct?!
Yes, widely reported Semedo's definitely does. Dendoncker's may have snuck up on us a bit but there may be a year's option on those two as well
 

WolfLing

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I note it says donk and semedos contracts expire in 2023, is that correct?!

Technically, yes. But we have a 2 year extension option for Semedo and a 1 year option for Dendoncker.
 

WolfInSheep'sClothing

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He said he welcomes positive and negative criticism so here goes...
Though I agree with many points he has said in that piece, I think he has started off with some conclusions and tried to get stats to match them, rather than looked at the stats and tried to make conclusions.
Interesting that RAN'S excellent defensive stats get the precursor that he is playing in a defensive side, whereas Semedo's doesn't, with RAN'S being better.
Also I'd like to see an analysis of Traore's numbers against Podence, rather than just dismissing him as being one dimensional.
As well, he seems to be assuming that Neves is going and we have no way of keeping him. Based on the fact that barca were looking at him at the end of the season, and he cried on the last day. Barca are said to not be looking at that position anymore. Plus, you could use some of the stats presented to justify why we should offer him a really good contract.
 

northnorfolkwolf

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I think we've all known what we need for perhaps 2 seasons now? Does he tell us anything really new that we did not already know?
 

Guzeppi

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As well written and reasonable as the piece is, not to mention the beautiful presentation and depth of analysis, unfortunately it still lies in the realm of fiction.

Proof of the pudding and all that.
 

Oldgoldilox

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What I struggle with here is the idea that expected goals is considered in the target player analysis but not actual goals. Not saying that xg shouldn't be a factor but surely for forwards, actual real goals scored should be the primary stat.
 

wolfslair

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What I struggle with here is the idea that expected goals is considered in the target player analysis but not actual goals. Not saying that xg shouldn't be a factor but surely for forwards, actual real goals scored should be the primary stat.

Very true, but you also need to see how often a striker gets into positions or creates chances to score.

As you might not score, but a save could create a rebound off the keeper that sets up a goal scoring opportunity for others.

Also it can give an idea of workrate in the final third.
 

gullykular

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He said he welcomes positive and negative criticism so here goes...
Though I agree with many points he has said in that piece, I think he has started off with some conclusions and tried to get stats to match them, rather than looked at the stats and tried to make conclusions.
Interesting that RAN'S excellent defensive stats get the precursor that he is playing in a defensive side, whereas Semedo's doesn't, with RAN'S being better.
Also I'd like to see an analysis of Traore's numbers against Podence, rather than just dismissing him as being one dimensional.
As well, he seems to be assuming that Neves is going and we have no way of keeping him. Based on the fact that barca were looking at him at the end of the season, and he cried on the last day. Barca are said to not be looking at that position anymore. Plus, you could use some of the stats presented to justify why we should offer him a really good contract.
You make some very valid points for sure. Ultimately there has to be a line in the sand drawn somewhere and some assumptions made for something this holistic. I think the Semedo/RAN comment is an interesting one but I'd argue given Semedo's wealth of experience vs RAN there are differing standards for each at this point in their careers and should be judged as such. We discussed on our podcast last night that Semedo still has work to do in possession as well.

And the bottom line of all of this is while it's stats evidence it's not stats led. It's a foundation based on the eye test that we all have made judgement off the back of. Hence Traore being called one dimensional. His stats may not suggest this, but we do know that Podence has a more varied game than Adama.
 

gullykular

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What I struggle with here is the idea that expected goals is considered in the target player analysis but not actual goals. Not saying that xg shouldn't be a factor but surely for forwards, actual real goals scored should be the primary stat.
I think xG gives you an insight that goals don't, especially for a prospective signing. It could highlight a flaw in finishing ability, or a significant strength if they're outperforming xG. It could demonstrate a player taking too many shots from poor positions, or perhaps taking advantage of a lower standard of goalkeeping.
 

Contrarian

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We knew the plan already. It's "Get linked to hundreds of decent players, while buying none of them and instead winding up with a couple of teenagers to loan out and some top quality excuses for not signing anyone else".
 

Black Country Wanderer

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Pretty much as we all knew really,but good piece of in depth work
Still leaves us with what we need CB CM and striker as a minimum
 

WolfLing

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He said he welcomes positive and negative criticism so here goes...
Though I agree with many points he has said in that piece, I think he has started off with some conclusions and tried to get stats to match them, rather than looked at the stats and tried to make conclusions.
Interesting that RAN'S excellent defensive stats get the precursor that he is playing in a defensive side, whereas Semedo's doesn't, with RAN'S being better.
Also I'd like to see an analysis of Traore's numbers against Podence, rather than just dismissing him as being one dimensional.
As well, he seems to be assuming that Neves is going and we have no way of keeping him. Based on the fact that barca were looking at him at the end of the season, and he cried on the last day. Barca are said to not be looking at that position anymore. Plus, you could use some of the stats presented to justify why we should offer him a really good contract.

It's an incredibly detailed piece of work, so hats off to him.

But I'd echo your points about the starting point not being a conclusion (or an opinion).

For example. Bruno has indeed said that he might adopt a back 4, but he's also said in interviews something along the lines that he sees the formation as a fluid thing between games/opposition.

In my opinion, any recruitment plan or scouting report shouldn't offer any opinions such as, "Not investing properly, or relying too heavily on well-established ties to agents will see Wolves fall behind the likes of West Ham, Brighton, Crystal Palace and Leicester".

Unless you're going to analyse each individual club on their own recruitment challenges and do a detailed breakdown of the pros and cons of Mendes players vs non-Mendes players, with evidence, you can't arrive at a statement like that.
 
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MasWolf

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Do clubs take notice of this kind of thing?
 

gullykular

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It's an incredibly detailed piece of work, so hats off to him.

But I'd echo your points about the starting point not being a conclusion (or an opinion).

For example. Bruno has indeed said that he might adopt a back 4, but he's also said in interviews something along the lines that he sees the formation as a fluid thing between games/opposition.

In my opinion, any recruitment plan or scouting report shouldn't offer any opinions such as, "Not investing properly, or relying too heavily on well-established ties to agents will see Wolves fall behind the likes of West Ham, Brighton, Crystal Palace and Leicester".

Unless you're going to analyse each individual club on their own recruitment challenges and do a detailed breakdown of the pros and cons of Mendes players vs non-Mendes players, with evidence, you can't arrive at a statement like that.
There has to be a degree of subjectivity to this though right? And it's fair comment when you consider the narrow pool of players tied to Mendes and the wider pool elsewhere. Law of averages dictates you're cornering yourself from a whole host of signings that could be of value, which Dan's tried to evidence here. I'd suggest Palace and Brighton were wholeheartedly more successful with their recruitment last season. If they continue on that trajectory they'll replace us as the teams closest to the Top 6 soon enough
 

clivewolves

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I think the part that's tough for someone not directly involved in football to analyse is what the footballer is like off the field, particularly relatively unknown players. I would imagine this is where contacts within the industry and a 'friend of a friend' can give advice. I've sometimes wondered how clubs go about finding out about a player's character and off-the-field activities. Wolves had the 'no *********' policy. Do clubs go to the extent of hiring a private investigator? I guess these days going on social media can cover a fair bit of it. Considering the amounts of money involved I would imagine clubs want to know as much as possible.
 

WolfLing

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There has to be a degree of subjectivity to this though right? And it's fair comment when you consider the narrow pool of players tied to Mendes and the wider pool elsewhere. Law of averages dictates you're cornering yourself from a whole host of signings that could be of value, which Dan's tried to evidence here. I'd suggest Palace and Brighton were wholeheartedly more successful with their recruitment last season. If they continue on that trajectory they'll replace us as the teams closest to the Top 6 soon enough

But Palace and Brighton both had a much lower starting point. I'd argue Brighton signed 2 players that made a difference to their squad this season, Cucurella and Mwepu. We signed Sa, Ait-Nouri on a permanent, Hwang and Chiquinho. On the face of it, not really bad! Palace had to build a whole new team, but still finished below us when we had a bad end to the season.

We've seen with us how easy it is to buy players in The Championship and be a lot better.

We are now at the level of recruitment where it is going to take a big signing to make us any better. Both Brighton and Palace will probably experience a similar problem now. How do you sign players to improve where you've got to.

As for the Mendes thing. If the non-Mendes players we had signed were consistently outperforming the Mendes ones, there'd be basis for those concerns. But I'd suspect if you did analyse it, it's the other way around!
 

gullykular

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I think the part that's tough for someone not directly involved in football to analyse is what the footballer is like off the field, particularly relatively unknown players. I would imagine this is where contacts within the industry and a 'friend of a friend' can give advice. I've sometimes wondered how clubs go about finding out about a player's character and off-the-field activities. Wolves had the 'no *********' policy. Do clubs go to the extent of hiring a private investigator? I guess these days going on social media can cover a fair bit of it. Considering the amounts of money involved I would imagine clubs want to know as much as possible.
I think it's simply a case of working within a network of trusted contacts. Football's a small world. I read just now that Darwin Nunez played with Maxi Rodriguez at Penarol earlier in his career and Liverpool had that contact to get a feel for his character. There's always someone to speak to
 

gullykular

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But Palace and Brighton both had a much lower starting point. I'd argue Brighton signed 2 players that made a difference to their squad this season, Cucurella and Mwepu. We signed Sa, Ait-Nouri on a permanent, Hwang and Chiquinho. On the face of it, not really bad! Palace had to build a whole new team, but still finished below us when we had a bad end to the season.

We've seen with us how easy it is to buy players in The Championship and be a lot better.

We are now at the level of recruitment where it is going to take a big signing to make us any better. Both Brighton and Palace will probably experience a similar problem now. How do you sign players to improve where you've got to.

As for the Mendes thing. If the non-Mendes players we had signed were consistently outperforming the Mendes ones, there'd be basis for those concerns. But I'd suspect if you did analyse it, it's the other way around!
You're totally right and our starting point is higher, but we're near enough level pegging at this point I feel and the summer transfer window is key in dictating where we go from here. I trust Palace/Brighton to work more creatively to allay their issues/upgrade but I don't see that happening with us.
 

SingYourHeartsOut

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The main thing it clarifies for me is that you have to know what you're intending to do first. Before you bid for anyone, commit to a strategy. If that's 4231 then fair enough, get the players in for a back 4,decide if Kilman, Boly, Gomes etc might be up to it. We don't have the finances for a squad that plays 2 ways.
 
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Oh When the Wolves

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Don’t need an article to tell we need a new Cm , CB, and striker - before anyone leaves
 

gullykular

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The main thing it clarifies for me is that you have to know what you're intending to do first. Before you bid for anyone, commit to a strategy. If that's 4231 then fair enough, get the players in for a back 4,decide if Kilman, Boly, Gomes etc might be up to it. We don't have the finances for a squad that plays 2 ways.
I disagree - footballers need to have that flexibility. We played a certain way for a few years because we had high quality in certain areas of the pitch and average quality in others. The disparity meant we had to hide those flaws with a system that suited that. We're now on the other side of that particular hill as other teams figure us out, so there has to be an upgrade in quality with players who have more strings to their bow. That doesn't mean necessarily filling the squad out with big numbers IMO
 
R

reanswolf

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Just wanted to bring to everyone's attention an excellent piece of work by aspiring scout/analyst Dan Butler. You may have already come across this as it has been shared widely across Twitter.

It showcases a detailed analysis of the current squad, where improvements are required and the profile of players we should be looking to recruit if we are to transition to a back four system. He then identifies a number of options at centre back, defensive midfield, attacking midfield and centre forward.

It's an incredible piece of work and a real labour of love having spoken to him on the subject yesterday on the Wolves Fancast YouTube channel, but shows where there can be value in the market away from our usual route of Mendes/Portugal.

It's a long read, so buckle yourselves in and enjoy:

I know I sound harsh, but for me it doesn't really tell us anything anyone doesn't already know, its just a typical glossed up, modern-day product stating the obvious. There's no assessment of the individual attributes of our midfielders even, which is the key area of concern this pre-season. Nor any assessment of Palhinha's attributes (as a potential replacement).
 

ombyman

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What I struggle with here is the idea that expected goals is considered in the target player analysis but not actual goals. Not saying that xg shouldn't be a factor but surely for forwards, actual real goals scored should be the primary stat.
It's all about trends and buzz words....XG is the rage now.

Anyway I'm off to do some blue sky thinking on some clear water about how I can get more bang for my buck.
 

wwbug

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What I struggle with here is the idea that expected goals is considered in the target player analysis but not actual goals. Not saying that xg shouldn't be a factor but surely for forwards, actual real goals scored should be the primary stat.
I do think Xg reflects accurately the way I feel we have played.
It could almost be some type of monitor attached to my emotions. It correlates almost exactly.
 

SingYourHeartsOut

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I disagree - footballers need to have that flexibility. We played a certain way for a few years because we had high quality in certain areas of the pitch and average quality in others. The disparity meant we had to hide those flaws with a system that suited that. We're now on the other side of that particular hill as other teams figure us out, so there has to be an upgrade in quality with players who have more strings to their bow. That doesn't mean necessarily filling the squad out with big numbers IMO
I don't disagree with that, but my point really is that we can't invest (for example) in a top quality CH and a CDM to play 4231, while still keeping Coady or any other CH deemed not good enough to play in a 4. I think the small squad approach will continue and probably rightly so as we can't have quality and quantity. Maybe sometimes we would still play 352, but we'd be using Toti or similar as the extra CH.
 

Jd132

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I think the guy is correct- we need a CB, DMC, MC/AMC and ST

DC - Collins, Carmo, Inacio, Bassey, Rodon, Torres
DMC - Palhinha, Nico, Garbett, Lepinjica, Al-Musrati
MC/AMC - Nunes, Fernandez, Almeida, Puig
ST - Gabigol, Henry, Seferovic, Evanilson

To be fair to him, and the club, it definitely looks like they are trying to prioritise this spine. The links to wing backs and wing forwards have been considerably fewer.
 
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NewarkWolf

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It's an incredibly detailed piece of work, so hats off to him.

But I'd echo your points about the starting point not being a conclusion (or an opinion).

For example. Bruno has indeed said that he might adopt a back 4, but he's also said in interviews something along the lines that he sees the formation as a fluid thing between games/opposition.

In my opinion, any recruitment plan or scouting report shouldn't offer any opinions such as, "Not investing properly, or relying too heavily on well-established ties to agents will see Wolves fall behind the likes of West Ham, Brighton, Crystal Palace and Leicester".

Unless you're going to analyse each individual club on their own recruitment challenges and do a detailed breakdown of the pros and cons of Mendes players vs non-Mendes players, with evidence, you can't arrive at a statement like that.
We've been behind West ham, Leicester, Brighton (to a degree) and Palace for a lengthy periods on and off over the last 10-15 years.

Some a forgetting how quickly we've got to the position we have and have settled slightly ready to potentially go again. Newcastle is the new project in town.
 

Oldgoldilox

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I think xG gives you an insight that goals don't, especially for a prospective signing. It could highlight a flaw in finishing ability, or a significant strength if they're outperforming xG. It could demonstrate a player taking too many shots from poor positions, or perhaps taking advantage of a lower standard of goalkeeping.
I get all that but a better measure, which would surely cover all of the bases you mention, would be how many goals the player actually scores.
 

freezin

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I've not read it but I listened to the normally excellent Wolves Fancast podcast on Spotify and I had to turn it off for the following reasons

1) it was boring.
2) it stated the bleedin' obvious re positions we need to recruit.
3) it seemed like it had just been compiled using FM data fed through search criteria.

As I say I've not read it so I might enjoy it but the podcast was so dull. It went off after about 30mins and I suspect I may have nodded off before that.
 

gullykular

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I've not read it but I listened to the normally excellent Wolves Fancast podcast on Spotify and I had to turn it off for the following reasons

1) it was boring.
2) it stated the bleedin' obvious re positions we need to recruit.
3) it seemed like it had just been compiled using FM data fed through search criteria.

As I say I've not read it so I might enjoy it but the podcast was so dull. It went off after about 30mins and I suspect I may have nodded off before that.
Disappointed to hear you didn't enjoy the pod. It was a light touch on the plan itself deliberately as there is far too much insight to delve into at that level. I'm sure Dan would be happy to share his sources of info, but I know he spent nearly a month from start to finish working into the early hours after work to put it together - something you wouldn't do if you were relying on 'FM data'.

The insight wasn't necessarily about the positions we are looking to recruit for, but more about the types of players out there that can be sourced from a number of different markets. I know I learned a hell of a lot from it despite feeling like I'm quite well-versed on such matters as it is. I would recommend reading through before judging though as you may not have got what you wanted from the podcast, but the written document is full of the information you're probably looking for.
 
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