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Potential transfer analysis

ribz

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Hello everyone! Not sure if this is the right topic, if not please redirect me.

I'm Portuguese and this is my first post on your forum. I just finished my Master Degree in Big Data Applied to Football and I selected Wolverhampton (a club that I have been following closely for the last seasons for obvious reasons) to serve as subject for my end of Master Project, and would like to share the results with you.

I, and a colleague of mine, developed a proposal for the Summer Transfer Window for Wolves, resorting to Wyscout Data, Python and Machine Learning Techniques.

To put it simply, we defined from over 60+ metrics what would the most valuable be for each position in the Wolves model of play (Center Back, Wing Back, Midfielder, Winger and Striker), and via a machine learning model created with python we clustered the results and ranked them subsequently. In the end we used a pinch of human judgement in order to remove from the equation players that were either realistically unnatainable for Wolves and players that no longer are available on the market (Kolo Muani for instance, which would have made it as a top 1 pick for the Striker position).

Take the Market Value figures with a pinch of salt as this is Transfermarkt data and not fiable or realistic in some cases.

I will not attach the full work but just the conclusions we took out of it. Hope you enjoy the work and effort we put into this, and maybe we'll see if any of these players will make it to Wolves during this transfer window (Nathan Collins ranked 51st on our model for center backs, for instance). I really wish Lage can succeed and have the best season yet for Wolves this year.

Cheers!

(Just in case you can't see the PDF I will attach the content with images. They are resized in order to comply with the limits of the forum, and thus not as clear as the PDF)

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  • TFM (ENG) - Summer Window Transfer Planning Wolverhampton - Conclusions.pdf
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bod101

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i've moved this into it's own thread as i reckon it would make for good discussion...
 
D

Deleted member 8455jwf

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Really great work, Wyscout for people who aren't aware is used by Pro clubs to scout players. The functionality is pretty incredible from what I've seen, the top dollar version has videos attached to the stats broken down to things like "crosses from the right" which you press and it brings up a video all of a players crosses from the right which were recorded.

RE your Collins point, I wonder if you did any comparison with Collins vs his teammates to discern style - for e.g his ball progression numbers are low against the top 5 European league average but are streets ahead of Mee/Tarkowski his CB partners which adds further context to his qualities rather than just stock assessment. Although I realise that would take an enormous of additional coding!
 

The Weasel

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Top piece of analysis. I think I would have filtered out players with no potential resale value given the Fosun model...I see you have a couple of 33 y/o and a 36 y/o in there...they just wouldn't do that in my opinion...
 
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Top piece of analysis. I think I would have filtered out players with no potential resale value given the Fosun model...I see you have a couple of 33 y/o and a 36 y/o in there...they just wouldn't do that in my opinion...
Tbf how old was moutinho/ Patricio when we bought them? Of marcal, when it comes to a high level talent such as dzeko I don’t think fosun would turn him down for a couple mil
 
D

Deleted member 8455jwf

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Top piece of analysis. I think I would have filtered out players with no potential resale value given the Fosun model...I see you have a couple of 33 y/o and a 36 y/o in there...they just wouldn't do that in my opinion...
Depends on price tbf, Marcal was very cheap and they obviously sanctioned him for cover for a few years. Likewise Joao was super cheap so they didn't worry about age.
 

sheffwolf

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Brilliant! Any idea how much a potential change to a 4-3-3 would have affected the analysis / outcome?
 

OLDGOLD

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Interesting stuff. Some names we have seen crop up in threads....
 

MasWolf

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Hello everyone! Not sure if this is the right topic, if not please redirect me.

I'm Portuguese and this is my first post on your forum. I just finished my Master Degree in Big Data Applied to Football and I selected Wolverhampton (a club that I have been following closely for the last seasons for obvious reasons) to serve as subject for my end of Master Project, and would like to share the results with you.

I, and a colleague of mine, developed a proposal for the Summer Transfer Window for Wolves, resorting to Wyscout Data, Python and Machine Learning Techniques.

To put it simply, we defined from over 60+ metrics what would the most valuable be for each position in the Wolves model of play (Center Back, Wing Back, Midfielder, Winger and Striker), and via a machine learning model created with python we clustered the results and ranked them subsequently. In the end we used a pinch of human judgement in order to remove from the equation players that were either realistically unnatainable for Wolves and players that no longer are available on the market (Kolo Muani for instance, which would have made it as a top 1 pick for the Striker position).

Take the Market Value figures with a pinch of salt as this is Transfermarkt data and not fiable or realistic in some cases.

I will not attach the full work but just the conclusions we took out of it. Hope you enjoy the work and effort we put into this, and maybe we'll see if any of these players will make it to Wolves during this transfer window (Nathan Collins ranked 51st on our model for center backs, for instance). I really wish Lage can succeed and have the best season yet for Wolves this year.

Cheers!

(Just in case you can't see the PDF I will attach the content with images. They are resized in order to comply with the limits of the forum, and thus not as clear as the PDF)

View attachment 29014
View attachment 29015
View attachment 29016
View attachment 29017
View attachment 29018
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View attachment 29020
Thanks for choosing our club to analyse! I love the Portuguese connection we have now and I'm desperate to get out there and visit. I also now watch and kind of support Portugal when they play international games. By all accounts, it seems like a lovely country that's helped Wolves have their best period in years!
 

ribz

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Really great work, Wyscout for people who aren't aware is used by Pro clubs to scout players. The functionality is pretty incredible from what I've seen, the top dollar version has videos attached to the stats broken down to things like "crosses from the right" which you press and it brings up a video all of a players crosses from the right which were recorded.

RE your Collins point, I wonder if you did any comparison with Collins vs his teammates to discern style - for e.g his ball progression numbers are low against the top 5 European league average but are streets ahead of Mee/Tarkowski his CB partners which adds further context to his qualities rather than just stock assessment. Although I realise that would take an enormous of additional coding!

First I would like to thank the user that redirected my original post, as I did not realize there could be a more suitable thread.

To your comment, we did not take into consideration how players from the same team compare among themselves. Players were compared as a whole within the cluster of athletes they fell in. For instance, Collins did fell into the same cluster as all the Wolves center-backs which is a good sign, meaning consistency at statistical level. However, given the metrics that we attributed the model with, which we considered would be most suitable for Wolves style of play (taking the usual 3 at the back as a starting point), it presents us, ranked, the most suitable fits.
Something interesting is that center-back is actually the position that we got more intrigued about as the only center back that seemed to somehow fit the Wolves model, after the mathematical procedure, was Saiss (Toti did as well but we did not consider him as his little play game can certainly be influencing the results). Of course this can be on us, for a bad job at choosing the right metrics for the Wolves style of play, but nonetheless I found it interesting. Nathan Collins is actually the one that better fits Wolves style of play, even though he's on the 51st place of the rank (top places are occupied with unnatainable players usually).
 

ribz

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Top piece of analysis. I think I would have filtered out players with no potential resale value given the Fosun model...I see you have a couple of 33 y/o and a 36 y/o in there...they just wouldn't do that in my opinion...
Thank you! Well, we figured we wanted to take all possibilities into account, and suggest one type of player per category (3 categories of investment, youth and experencied player). In the past Wolves have signed players already on the (supposed) declining phase of their athletic careers such as Moutinho for instance, so we figured it could make sense in a specific context.
 

ribz

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Brilliant! Any idea how much a potential change to a 4-3-3 would have affected the analysis / outcome?
It would certainly offer very different results, specially in the defensive wings and midfield. So I would't trust in the suggestions for those two positions at least, with a change to a 4-3-3. I might work on the metrics to fit a 4-3-3 in the future, if that's the way Wolves is going. As of now I am trying to apply the model to Benfica, but after that I would be willing to work on it for sure.
 

ribz

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Thanks for choosing our club to analyse! I love the Portuguese connection we have now and I'm desperate to get out there and visit. I also now watch and kind of support Portugal when they play international games. By all accounts, it seems like a lovely country that's helped Wolves have their best period in years!
Thanks, as a Portuguese I appreciate your words!
 

Contrarian

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Top piece of analysis. I think I would have filtered out players with no potential resale value given the Fosun model...I see you have a couple of 33 y/o and a 36 y/o in there...they just wouldn't do that in my opinion...

I think thats the way it's structured. You get one young and one old player in every playing position. (see the "Rolling Stones"/old person ahead symbol in the corner of the pictures in the bottom left of each position) Presumably the "best fit" of that type.
 

ribz

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I think thats the way it's structured. You get one young and one old player in every playing position. (see the "Rolling Stones"/old person ahead symbol in the corner of the pictures in the bottom left of each position) Presumably the "best fit" of that type.
This is correct. I would't call it necessarily old, but a more experienced player for that position that could offer immediate performance for a better cost than a younger one.
 

Contrarian

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Thanks for choosing our club to analyse! I love the Portuguese connection we have now and I'm desperate to get out there and visit. I also now watch and kind of support Portugal when they play international games. By all accounts, it seems like a lovely country that's helped Wolves have their best period in years!

Me too! Portugal is the one country around the Med I've never visited. Definitely aim to at some point. Also very much follow Portugal more ever since the novelty of watching a top international side take the field with 2 or 3 of our players. (though they may say we have 11 or 12 of "their" players :))
 

Eastyorksyeltz

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Me too! Portugal is the one country around the Med I've never visited. Definitely aim to at some point. Also very much follow Portugal more ever since the novelty of watching a top international side take the field with 2 or 3 of our players. (though they may say we have 11 or 12 of "their" players :))
Most of the Portuguese we have had here have been a wonderful advertisement for the country and its people, not just as players/coaches either.
 

lets all have a disco

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Hello everyone! Not sure if this is the right topic, if not please redirect me.

I'm Portuguese and this is my first post on your forum. I just finished my Master Degree in Big Data Applied to Football and I selected Wolverhampton (a club that I have been following closely for the last seasons for obvious reasons) to serve as subject for my end of Master Project, and would like to share the results with you.

I, and a colleague of mine, developed a proposal for the Summer Transfer Window for Wolves, resorting to Wyscout Data, Python and Machine Learning Techniques.

To put it simply, we defined from over 60+ metrics what would the most valuable be for each position in the Wolves model of play (Center Back, Wing Back, Midfielder, Winger and Striker), and via a machine learning model created with python we clustered the results and ranked them subsequently. In the end we used a pinch of human judgement in order to remove from the equation players that were either realistically unnatainable for Wolves and players that no longer are available on the market (Kolo Muani for instance, which would have made it as a top 1 pick for the Striker position).

Take the Market Value figures with a pinch of salt as this is Transfermarkt data and not fiable or realistic in some cases.

I will not attach the full work but just the conclusions we took out of it. Hope you enjoy the work and effort we put into this, and maybe we'll see if any of these players will make it to Wolves during this transfer window (Nathan Collins ranked 51st on our model for center backs, for instance). I really wish Lage can succeed and have the best season yet for Wolves this year.

Cheers!

(Just in case you can't see the PDF I will attach the content with images. They are resized in order to comply with the limits of the forum, and thus not as clear as the PDF)

View attachment 29014
View attachment 29015
View attachment 29016
View attachment 29017
View attachment 29018
View attachment 29019
View attachment 29020
Which team do you support in Portugal.....
 

MasWolf

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Me too! Portugal is the one country around the Med I've never visited. Definitely aim to at some point. Also very much follow Portugal more ever since the novelty of watching a top international side take the field with 2 or 3 of our players. (though they may say we have 11 or 12 of "their" players :))
I also watch them for "scouting purposes". My Dad and I also play a game where we try and guess who in the team that's playing will end up with us!
 

WickedWolfie

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Hello everyone! Not sure if this is the right topic, if not please redirect me.

I'm Portuguese and this is my first post on your forum. I just finished my Master Degree in Big Data Applied to Football and I selected Wolverhampton (a club that I have been following closely for the last seasons for obvious reasons) to serve as subject for my end of Master Project, and would like to share the results with you.

I, and a colleague of mine, developed a proposal for the Summer Transfer Window for Wolves, resorting to Wyscout Data, Python and Machine Learning Techniques.

To put it simply, we defined from over 60+ metrics what would the most valuable be for each position in the Wolves model of play (Center Back, Wing Back, Midfielder, Winger and Striker), and via a machine learning model created with python we clustered the results and ranked them subsequently. In the end we used a pinch of human judgement in order to remove from the equation players that were either realistically unnatainable for Wolves and players that no longer are available on the market (Kolo Muani for instance, which would have made it as a top 1 pick for the Striker position).

Take the Market Value figures with a pinch of salt as this is Transfermarkt data and not fiable or realistic in some cases.

I will not attach the full work but just the conclusions we took out of it. Hope you enjoy the work and effort we put into this, and maybe we'll see if any of these players will make it to Wolves during this transfer window (Nathan Collins ranked 51st on our model for center backs, for instance). I really wish Lage can succeed and have the best season yet for Wolves this year.

Cheers!

(Just in case you can't see the PDF I will attach the content with images. They are resized in order to comply with the limits of the forum, and thus not as clear as the PDF)

View attachment 29014
View attachment 29015
View attachment 29016
View attachment 29017
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View attachment 29020
Interesting. Obrigado.
 

ribz

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As a Benfica fan, what are your personal opinions of Bruno Lage as a manager? Would you of like to have kept him, or were you happy we he left?
The first 6 months of Lage that led us to winning a title that seemed lost were probably my happiest as a Benfica fan. Everything connected. I had known Lage for over a decade and he did an amazing job at with the youth squads and everybody kinda wanted him to eventually be the manager of the club someday. The day finally came and we were playing football like never before, kids were showing up well in the first team left and right, we finally had a benfica fan managing the club and you could feel that in his relationship with the press. I really enjoyed his communication. It seemed like he could be managing the club for the next decade at least.

Well that fell apart kinda fast and to this day I don’t know what could have led to that ( well maybe I do, there was always the Jorge Jesus ghost in the room as at the time he was being linked to a return everyday on the press and it was disrespectful to Lage) but the team no longer seemed to be “with him” and you could feel that on the pitch. Nothing connected and we went through the worse series of results in club history (2 wins in 13 games i believe). It got to a point that it simply was not possible to continue hoping for a change, so I think that leaving was the best at the time for the club, players and Lage himself.
 

MasWolf

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The first 6 months of Lage that led us to winning a title that seemed lost were probably my happiest as a Benfica fan. Everything connected. I had known Lage for over a decade and he did an amazing job at with the youth squads and everybody kinda wanted him to eventually be the manager of the club someday. The day finally came and we were playing football like never before, kids were showing up well in the first team left and right, we finally had a benfica fan managing the club and you could feel that in his relationship with the press. I really enjoyed his communication. It seemed like he could be managing the club for the next decade at least.

Well that fell apart kinda fast and to this day I don’t know what could have led to that ( well maybe I do, there was always the Jorge Jesus ghost in the room as at the time he was being linked to a return everyday on the press and it was disrespectful to Lage) but the team no longer seemed to be “with him” and you could feel that on the pitch. Nothing connected and we went through the worse series of results in club history (2 wins in 13 games i believe). It got to a point that it simply was not possible to continue hoping for a change, so I think that leaving was the best at the time for the club, players and Lage himself.
That's really interesting. I'm not sure how much you're aware of the club communication, but this summer Wolves put out an extended interview with Lage and he came across really well. His knowledge of the game is second to none. In all honesty, I'd put his tactical knowledge of football at the top of the PL (probably just under Pep, due to how much Pep has influenced the game).

A lot of pundits are writing us off this season and say we'll struggle but I really don't think they understand how good Lage is. I really rate him as a manager. He's brilliant in my eyes!
 

ribz

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That's really interesting. I'm not sure how much you're aware of the club communication, but this summer Wolves put out an extended interview with Lage and he came across really well. His knowledge of the game is second to none. In all honesty, I'd put his tactical knowledge of football at the top of the PL (probably just under Pep, due to how much Pep has influenced the game).

A lot of pundits are writing us off this season and say we'll struggle but I really don't think they understand how good Lage is. I really rate him as a manager. He's brilliant in my eyes!
I think when he is able to speak his mind with no guidance to follow that's where he shines. You can feel that he loves the subject of football and that really reflects in his way of communicating i think. And I do agree, he knows a whole lot about football.
 

ribz

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Just out of curiosity, Guedes occupies position 18 in the model ranking that I presented in this topic. So, statistically, it would fit Wolves style of play.

Big fan of him, hope it goes well and that he may return to Benfica later down the line.
 

ribz

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Hello everyone! Not sure if this is the right topic, if not please redirect me.

I'm Portuguese and this is my first post on your forum. I just finished my Master Degree in Big Data Applied to Football and I selected Wolverhampton (a club that I have been following closely for the last seasons for obvious reasons) to serve as subject for my end of Master Project, and would like to share the results with you.

I, and a colleague of mine, developed a proposal for the Summer Transfer Window for Wolves, resorting to Wyscout Data, Python and Machine Learning Techniques.

To put it simply, we defined from over 60+ metrics what would the most valuable be for each position in the Wolves model of play (Center Back, Wing Back, Midfielder, Winger and Striker), and via a machine learning model created with python we clustered the results and ranked them subsequently. In the end we used a pinch of human judgement in order to remove from the equation players that were either realistically unnatainable for Wolves and players that no longer are available on the market (Kolo Muani for instance, which would have made it as a top 1 pick for the Striker position).

Take the Market Value figures with a pinch of salt as this is Transfermarkt data and not fiable or realistic in some cases.

I will not attach the full work but just the conclusions we took out of it. Hope you enjoy the work and effort we put into this, and maybe we'll see if any of these players will make it to Wolves during this transfer window (Nathan Collins ranked 51st on our model for center backs, for instance). I really wish Lage can succeed and have the best season yet for Wolves this year.

Cheers!

(Just in case you can't see the PDF I will attach the content with images. They are resized in order to comply with the limits of the forum, and thus not as clear as the PDF)

View attachment 29014
View attachment 29015
View attachment 29016
View attachment 29017
View attachment 29018
View attachment 29019
View attachment 29020
Iker bravo set to sign for Real Madrid
 
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