A (footballing) warning from history

[Kingswood Wolf]

If you Google the Premier League table for season 2009/2010, you will find only seven of the teams in it have not been relegated since, the 'Big 6' and Everton. Everyone else, all 13 of them, plus others I am sure since (hello Blackpool et al) have been relegated - many never to be seen again.

This includes clubs at the time you might have considered stable (Stoke, Villa) or 'big' (Newcastle, Sunderland) as well as the likes of Wigan who went all Icarus on us and imploded. Oh, and Notlob, but **** them.

Seems to me therefore that if you're not moving forwards, you're moving backwards; build from a position of strength etc etc. This is not a bash Nuno/Mendes/Fosun thread but history CLEARLY shows we're vulnerable and we need to keep that peril in mind this summer where we've got to address the myriad issues we have.

In that respect, believe-it-or-not, old Jez Moxey was correct when he said we could aim to be Everton. In terms of trophies and Europe - we should aim higher, but in terms of hanging on in there, building (and spending) they are ones to emulate if we cannot crack the 'Big 6'. Otherwise we'll do a Villa and may not be so incredibly jammy in bouncing back pretty well (hello to Stoke). And we're unlikely to find our version of a Grealish to drag us up.

Careful now, Wolves....

 

[Mardenboroughs Shoulder]

Or alternatively we could base ourselves on RB Leipzig?

 

[Contrarian]

If you Google the Premier League table for season 2009/2010, you will find only seven of the teams in it have not been relegated since, the 'Big 6' and Everton. Everyone else, all 13 of them, plus others I am sure since (hello Blackpool et al) have been relegated - many never to be seen again.

This includes clubs at the time you might have considered stable (Stoke, Villa) or 'big' (Newcastle, Sunderland) as well as the likes of Wigan who went all Icarus on us and imploded. Oh, and Notlob, but **** them.

Seems to me therefore that if you're not moving forwards, you're moving backwards; build from a position of strength etc etc. This is not a bash Nuno/Mendes/Fosun thread but history CLEARLY shows we're vulnerable and we need to keep that peril in mind this summer where we've got to address the myriad issues we have.

In that respect, believe-it-or-not, old Jez Moxey was correct when he said we could aim to be Everton. In terms of trophies and Europe - we should aim higher, but in terms of hanging on in there, building (and spending) they are ones to emulate if we cannot crack the 'Big 6'. Otherwise we'll do a Villa and may not be so incredibly jammy in bouncing back pretty well (hello to Stoke). And we're unlikely to find our version of a Grealish to drag us up.

Careful now, Wolves....

Yes, seen similar mentioned before, relating to other seasons but the same thing that other than 7 clubs, everybody is at risk. They had a final Premier league table from around 2012 and the question was "what is odd about this table?". And the answer is that everybody below 8th was no longer in the league!

To me the lesson is that we do have to keep building and consolidating, as you say. We may well have to become like Everton, before we could make the next step. I'd be happy with that, to become a club that most people instinctively feel is a Premier League club. We are totally biased, but for neutrals, they still don't see us there yet, will take another 3 or 4 seasons. And being in the top half, too, as most neutrals don't see Burnley or Brighton as really belonging even now, as they spend too long scrapping at the wrong end. Similar applied to Stoke, probably Albion, too.

Realistically, future relegation is a certainty, the only question is "exactly when?". Got to make the most of every season here, so that we become a club like Newcastle/West Ham/Southampton(even Villa) who even if relegated, comes back quickly. Not gets stuck at the lower level, or worse, like Sunderland/Blackburn/Forest (and Villa were possibly 1 season from joining them).

 

[Contrarian]

Or alternatively we could base ourselves on RB Leipzig?

There's only a "Big One" in Germany though, not a Big Six. Well, a Big Two at most, including Dortmund. Makes qualifying for Champions League a hell of a lot easier! In England, we have *at least* 6 clubs stronger than Dortmund even (based on recent seasons).

Though I do agree that matching Leipzigs achievements would be excellent, I don't really know what their "model" is. Suspect it's quite unique, given the Red Bull investment in them.

 

[The Runner]

If we're going to aim to be Everton there are a few on here going to have to rein in their ambitions. They've finished in the bottom half of the table in 3 of the last 6 seasons and have never finished higher than 8th in that time.

 

[DasWolf]

You have to capitalise when in a strong position in football, you may not end up in that position for a very long time, if ever.

Our recruitment policy after the first season back in the PL has been very poor.

Contrast Leicester, who launched into a very good team. That's really what we should have been doing, but that was an utter failure, and in all likelihood I expect a lot of our talent to go this summer.

We were in some very good positions and completely blew it - most of it entirely of our own making.

 

[Chisels_n_ommers]

But what are Everton aiming to be?

They are hardly just sitting around watching the grass grow. They are doing their upmost to get in the big 6 (which they were in during the 80s).
They are pumping fortunes into trying to do it and are highly ambitious. Yet they comparatively "tread water"

 

[Bossworld]

If you Google the Premier League table for season 2009/2010, you will find only seven of the teams in it have not been relegated since, the 'Big 6' and Everton. Everyone else, all 13 of them, plus others I am sure since (hello Blackpool et al) have been relegated - many never to be seen again.

This includes clubs at the time you might have considered stable (Stoke, Villa) or 'big' (Newcastle, Sunderland) as well as the likes of Wigan who went all Icarus on us and imploded. Oh, and Notlob, but **** them.

Seems to me therefore that if you're not moving forwards, you're moving backwards; build from a position of strength etc etc. This is not a bash Nuno/Mendes/Fosun thread but history CLEARLY shows we're vulnerable and we need to keep that peril in mind this summer where we've got to address the myriad issues we have.

In that respect, believe-it-or-not, old Jez Moxey was correct when he said we could aim to be Everton. In terms of trophies and Europe - we should aim higher, but in terms of hanging on in there, building (and spending) they are ones to emulate if we cannot crack the 'Big 6'. Otherwise we'll do a Villa and may not be so incredibly jammy in bouncing back pretty well (hello to Stoke). And we're unlikely to find our version of a Grealish to drag us up.

Careful now, Wolves....

Forgive me if I’m wrong but it’s a stat I’ve trotted out before and I think it’s even more recent than 09/10.

I believe every club bar the big 6 and Everton has been promoted back to the PL since 2012 at the earliest, and West Ham/Southampton skew that stat considerably.

 

[Boss Hogg]

If a big 6 club has a bad season they miss out on the champions league / europa. If anyone else has a bad season they are relegated and I can’t see that changing for the foreseeable future.

 

[Fenrir_]

Love this site, up until Friday night it was littered with fears of the most unlikely relegation you would ever see. Now that those fears have gone, four days later we've got we ARE going down - just not this season, and Fosun are pulling out

 

[Burton Wolf]

If we're going to aim to be Everton there are a few on here going to have to rein in their ambitions. They've finished in the bottom half of the table in 3 of the last 6 seasons and have never finished higher than 8th in that time.

When was the last time they were relegated?

 

[Flump]

Contrast Leicester, who launched into a very good team. That's really what we should have been doing, but that was an utter failure, and in all likelihood I expect a lot of our talent to go this summer.

Before you fall too far in love with Leicester, at this point in the season 3 years ago they were almost exactly level with where we are now, and they didn't have anything like the injury problems we've had this year.

In the last few years since their title they've had to sack Ranieri to avoid relegation, and after bringing in Rodgers and having a good start, barely won a game in the 2nd half of last season.

Despite being a very well run club, they're a warning to not judge based on short term results. There's a lot of similar clubs around 8-14th, so only a small improvement (or derioration) can lead to a sharp change in league position.

 

[Kingswood Wolf]

Love this site, up until Friday night it was littered with fears of the most unlikely relegation you would ever see. Now that those fears have gone, four days later we've got we ARE going down - just not this season, and Fosun are pulling out

Try and find a SINGLE post where I say ANYTHING about relegation this season, simply haven't. Just saw a table from a decade ago by chance and was very interesting to see 13/20 had been relegated since, and that statistically makes us vulnerable. That's all.

 

[The Runner]

When was the last time they were relegated?

I understand that but I wouldn't say that it couldn't happen. My perception is that they've spent shedloads of money and underperformed over the past few seasons. I may be doing them a disservice.

 

[goldeneyed]

The club badly need a prolonged stay in the Premier League - minimum 10 years, to reinforce finances, to re-establish themselves in the football world generally and achieve a consistent presence in the top 12 of the league. As long as Fosun are on board this should be possible. They will not want to jeopardise their investment through neglect and while they may not be willing to spend huge amounts they will want to keep the first team in a competitive, sustainable state.

The first immediate danger is the club putting all its eggs in the Nuno/Portuguese basket. When he goes all his coaches etc go with him - at least another six or seven people. That will create a huge upheaval which could be dangerous as it might result in a player exodus leaving the club super vulnerable to relegation. Even if a Portuguese manager takes over it will still leave a huge hole. The fact that Fosun hold a 20% stake in Mendes's agency will help to smoothe things out to some extent but this is my immediate concern - perhaps from 2023 onward.
Next summer will be a very difficult one and Neto's serious injury, plus Jonny's repeat injury, has made things even harder. There won't be lots of money to spend and the club will need to be very careful of who they let go of after a very hairy season so as not to weaken an already fragile squad. Can they gamble on a Traore sale with Neto out of it for now and Podence still struggling injury-wise?
Other issues:
Moutinho will be 35 next season so someone to replace him will be high on the list. Is Vitinha the man to do so? Has been given very little chance to show what he can do so impossible to know if the option on him will be taken up. Ait Nouri will surely be signed after poor Jonny's set back but he is not cheap at a reported £20m?
The need for a new centre back is obvious to play alongside Boly in a four. Cannot see Coady as being viable in a four although fine in a back three set up. Andersen at almost certainly relegated Fulham would be an ideal fit imv. But again we are probably talking a minimum £20m and probably more. Jose will not be signed unless his fee is pretty much halved...and even then ....someone will be needed wih Silva needing time to develop without massive pressure to be the next Raul.

Aside from replacing Moutinho another dynamic attacking midfielder badly needed. Who and how much?

With Neto out will someone like Guedes be signed also?

Ruddy - time to leave - can Sodergaard or the guy loaned to Shrewsbury be an effective No.2?

So that's the background Ait Nouri and Vitinha signing - a cool £38m or so for players who are not even established in any way. Another central midfielder, another CB, another striker, another wide player. That's a minimum. £80m to spend imv unless we can nab a couple of bargains. And how much can we raise? If we got £35m or so for Traore that would be our main move to raise money. Perhaps £10m-£12m for Mir? Then MGW, Kilman - ideally keep but probably get £15m combined for them? Vinagre interesting Benefica - perhaps £10m? Saiss keep on as squad player. That's around £70m which might be enough to see us through.

Lots of ifs and buts however. The club need to push on if they want to keep Neves this summer and beyond - he will want clear evidence that the club are not stagnating and will need a very attractive new contract. If Traore was sold would he think its time to leave? Then there are all the promising youngsters and how to keep them involved and interested. Otasowie has to be at the top of the list. Then we have Corbeanu, Marques, Lonjwick (spelling?) and the excellent Richards. Sanderson also will need to be assessed. If Sunderland or whoever will only pay £2m for him isn't it better to keep him? But is he better than Kilman? I doubt it and Kilman for some reason has been ignored by Nuno in the past 2 months.

All in all it is a complicated picture and if Raul, for instance, were to find it harder than expected to get back to where he was before we could be in for a very slow start next season.

On the plus side fans returning will give everyone a boost and bring some money into the club coffers. Just as long as Fosun keep making the right noises and the club keep looking to progress we should be in for a relatively successful fourth season back. Ground improvements probably remain on the back burner for now and I think that is inevitable.

 

[Contrarian]

If we're going to aim to be Everton there are a few on here going to have to rein in their ambitions. They've finished in the bottom half of the table in 3 of the last 6 seasons and have never finished higher than 8th in that time.

It's more that Everton have had 758 consecutive seasons in the Premier League, than anything they've done in the past 20 or so!

 

[Burton Wolf]

I understand that but I wouldn't say that it couldn't happen. My perception is that they've spent shedloads of money and underperformed over the past few seasons. I may be doing them a disservice.

I'd swap their achievements since 1981. Wouldn't you?

 

[The Runner]

I'd swap their achievements since 1981. Wouldn't you?

I'm not sure it's a relevant question. They haven't actually won anything for 25 years so if we're looking to emulate another club, is Everton the right model? My original point was that we're probably going to finish around 12th this year, but already it's seen by some as underachieving and that we're in danger of losing our best players.

 

[Burton Wolf]

I'm not sure it's a relevant question. They haven't actually won anything for 25 years so if we're looking to emulate another club, is Everton the right model? My original point was that we're probably going to finish around 12th this year, but already it's seen by some as underachieving and that we're in danger of losing our best players.

I would still have their record over the past 40 years rather than ours. So I think it is very relevant. As for us, lets hope we stay in the top league for the next 40 years.

 

[WS10Wolf]

But what are Everton aiming to be?

They are hardly just sitting around watching the grass grow. They are doing their upmost to get in the big 6 (which they were in during the 80s).
They are pumping fortunes into trying to do it and are highly ambitious. Yet they comparatively "tread water"

Plus they’ve got a new stadium on the way.

 

[AndyWolves]

But what are Everton aiming to be?

They are hardly just sitting around watching the grass grow. They are doing their upmost to get in the big 6 (which they were in during the 80s).
They are pumping fortunes into trying to do it and are highly ambitious. Yet they comparatively "tread water"

We aren't going to do better than them by copying what they do

 

[Fenrir_]

Try and find a SINGLE post where I say ANYTHING about relegation this season, simply haven't. Just saw a table from a decade ago by chance and was very interesting to see 13/20 had been relegated since, and that statistically makes us vulnerable. That's all.

Didn't say you specifically, just that the site is a constant hive of negativity. Now that the ridiculous relegation fears have gone someone pops up saying because 'this' has happened over the past few years it makes us statistically vulnerable... no it doesn't. Could argue we're as statistically vulnerable as any side that finished in the top seven in their first two seasons after promotion, it's got about as much relevance

 

[wwbug]

Consistently great long term MANAGEMENT - that is what it will take.
That’s why I hope Fosun will continue as our owners for 20 years, learning and adapting.

 

[Contrarian]

Didn't say you specifically, just that the site is a constant hive of negativity. Now that the ridiculous relegation fears have gone someone pops up saying because 'this' has happened over the past few years it makes us statistically vulnerable... no it doesn't. Could argue we're as statistically vulnerable as any side that finished in the top seven in their first two seasons after promotion, it's got about as much relevance

I don't think this site is the "constant hive of negativity". Most call it for what it is. It's been a negative season on the field, so this is just being reflected by those who are not totally biased. There was little negativity in the previous 3 seasons - again, it resurface only when we were playing badly and on losing runs. There really isn't some sort of psychological problem affecting Wolves supporters that makes us unable to see good, positive football being played. We just haven't seen much of it this season.

When the positive is there, I see it and will say so. And when we play relegation form football, I see that too. A while ago, in posts on newly promoted clubs finishing high up the table, I went through recent League Tables (WFH has it's advantages!) and happily posted that finishing 7th in first 2 seasons after promotion was an incredible achievement, unmatched by any club for 25 years at least. Even Man City never matched that.

And statistics are fairly neutral. Pointing out other teams on similar level and course as us *did* get relegated after a few good seasons is not ridiculous. It is wise to know what you are up against, that's all. Pointing out how difficult it is to bridge that gap is supporting the club in a realistic way, rather than having unreal expectations. In my opinion.

On the front page, I see the following thread titles . Doesn't look like a "hive of negativity". More like people are really trying to see as much positive as possible in a season where we have not played well for most of the time.

Going to catch Villa now?
The best Premier League club for young players...
Can we officially relegate the **** ?
MGW Resurgence?

In contrast, we have: "Nuno to Spurs? New rumour". But that isn't negative - it is absolutely neutral reporting of an item in the media. And dismissing it.

 

[Bill S Preston Esq.]

If you Google the Premier League table for season 2009/2010, you will find only seven of the teams in it have not been relegated since, the 'Big 6' and Everton. Everyone else, all 13 of them, plus others I am sure since (hello Blackpool et al) have been relegated - many never to be seen again.

This includes clubs at the time you might have considered stable (Stoke, Villa) or 'big' (Newcastle, Sunderland) as well as the likes of Wigan who went all Icarus on us and imploded. Oh, and Notlob, but **** them.

Seems to me therefore that if you're not moving forwards, you're moving backwards; build from a position of strength etc etc. This is not a bash Nuno/Mendes/Fosun thread but history CLEARLY shows we're vulnerable and we need to keep that peril in mind this summer where we've got to address the myriad issues we have.

In that respect, believe-it-or-not, old Jez Moxey was correct when he said we could aim to be Everton. In terms of trophies and Europe - we should aim higher, but in terms of hanging on in there, building (and spending) they are ones to emulate if we cannot crack the 'Big 6'. Otherwise we'll do a Villa and may not be so incredibly jammy in bouncing back pretty well (hello to Stoke). And we're unlikely to find our version of a Grealish to drag us up.

Careful now, Wolves....

I was thinking along similar lines. Looking at West Ham who are having a great season - I think they could easily finish in the bottom half next season.

There are four teams who will see winning the title as realistic. There are eight teams including those four looking at the Champions League.

There are another eight teams who'll think they can qualify for Europe. All of those could realistically be relegated.

 

[WolfLing]

It's even more important to stay in the Premier League now with the revenues levels as they are.

They are now nearly 3 times what they were between 2010 and 2013.

Just one season in The Championship could destroy a club that has been slowly building and increasing their costs.

Most recently promoted sides could just about cope with it, as the likes of Norwich and Watford have proven, but I think it would be an absolute disaster for clubs like us, Newcastle, Villa, Southampton or West Ham.

 

[glorybox]

From a standing start we surpassed Everton within a few seasons and are only just behind them this season despite all of the upheaval we have experienced. Let's aim higher folks.

 

[Deleted member LP 3925]

If you Google the Premier League table for season 2009/2010, you will find only seven of the teams in it have not been relegated since, the 'Big 6' and Everton. Everyone else, all 13 of them, plus others I am sure since (hello Blackpool et al) have been relegated - many never to be seen again.

I read on the 1889 cup final thread that 11 of the 12 founding football teams are still in existence and 5 are currently in the PL.
We must be holding on by the skin of our teeth.

I’m putting Phil Collins ‘Against All Odds’ on a constant loop for the next few years just to try to stay positive.

 

[Stratman Wolves]

You have to capitalise when in a strong position in football, you may not end up in that position for a very long time, if ever.

Our recruitment policy after the first season back in the PL has been very poor.

Contrast Leicester, who launched into a very good team. That's really what we should have been doing, but that was an utter failure, and in all likelihood I expect a lot of our talent to go this summer.

We were in some very good positions and completely blew it - most of it entirely of our own making.

Thats whats frustrating. Wolves shot themselves in the foot. Atrocious transfer policies since 2018, coupled with the "small squad" nonsense which I gather is due to Fosun tightening purse strings.

 

[Contrarian]

From a standing start we surpassed Everton within a few seasons and are only just behind them this season despite all of the upheaval we have experienced. Let's aim higher folks.

Fosun did say mid-table was their aim for this season. You'd like to think they know what they are doing and have well thought out reasons for that, not just pulled it out of thin air. They will know a lot of things going on at the club that none of us have a clue on. If they say mid-table is a good target this year, I'm happy with that.

Will be interesting what they say for next season. Push on or consolidate mid-table? Or just avoid the relegation battle?

 

[Olivergoldblack]

Fosun did say mid-table was their aim for this season. You'd like to think they know what they are doing and have well thought out reasons for that, not just pulled it out of thin air. They will know a lot of things going on at the club that none of us have a clue on. If they say mid-table is a good target this year, I'm happy with that.

Will be interesting what they say for next season. Push on or consolidate mid-table? Or just avoid the relegation battle?

How do you know Fosun said mid table was OK this season?

 

[Deleted member LP 3925]

How do you know Fosun said mid table was OK this season?

Didn’t you get the memo? Sent out the same day we bought Barca’s first choice right back.

 

[Pagey]

Fosun did say mid-table was their aim for this season. You'd like to think they know what they are doing and have well thought out reasons for that, not just pulled it out of thin air. They will know a lot of things going on at the club that none of us have a clue on. If they say mid-table is a good target this year, I'm happy with that.

Will be interesting what they say for next season. Push on or consolidate mid-table? Or just avoid the relegation battle?

Was it last summer Jeff said they had revised their 10 year plan, after realising the gap to the top was massive financially?

I hope they're still ambitious and wish to close that gap on and off the field, signing players for the future may work well long-term, maybe midtable for another year or two will be their aim.

Without sounding boring, It's all relative though, to be midtable in the prem, with some of the best players I've witnessed in our shirt, shows fantastic progress since Fosun rocked up in Wolves.

 

[Kingswood Wolf]

I read on the 1889 cup final thread that 11 of the 12 founding football teams are still in existence and 5 are currently in the PL.
We must be holding on by the skin of our teeth.

I’m putting Phil Collins ‘Against All Odds’ on a constant loop for the next few years just to try to stay positive.

Do you want to be Burnley, WBA or Villa? Everton it is then. And if you don't think we're a mis-step or two from doing a Stoke then you're far too positive for me!

 

[SheldonWolf]

Everything in football is fragile.....

Leicester & West Ham mixing it with the so called “big six” this season putting their noses out of joint.

Tottenham & Arsenal with budgets that depend on CL revenues about to miss out on those revenues (& Tottenham have a new stadium to pay for).

Who’d have thought Liverpool would be so far off this year after their dominance last year and loosing their Anfield run to..........Burnley!

Consolidation of our position will cost money, let alone advancing from where we are. But it’s much better than floating around the top 6 in the Championship.

But I do think the spotlight is on Nuno & his team this close season & next season. Under the spotlight for his brand of football & results; let’s not get too attached to Nuno, as much as we’re grateful for everything he’s done. If we need to change our stewardship to progress then so be it.......West Ham have gone from relegation candidates to CL contenders primarily down to a refresh in management team. Nothing saying we aren’t capable of the same.

 

[Deleted member LP 3925]

Do you want to be Burnley, WBA or Villa? Everton it is then. And if you don't think we're a mis-step or two from doing a Stoke then you're far too positive for me!

Hey @Kingswood Wolf
Life’s too short! Enjoy Wolves don’t fear for Wolves.
However, you are sandwiched between a pair of dodgy Bristols so that has probably affected your viewpoint!

 

[Contrarian]

How do you know Fosun said mid table was OK this season?

Tim Spiers reported it:

Wolves news: Tim Spiers reveals Fosun's stance on Nuno Espirito Santo

Wolves have struggled to progress this season

www.givemesport.com

 

[Olivergoldblack]

Was it last summer Jeff said they had revised their 10 year plan, after realising the gap to the top was massive financially?

I hope they're still ambitious and wish to close that gap on and off the field, signing players for the future may work well long-term, maybe midtable for another year or two will be their aim.

Without sounding boring, It's all relative though, to be midtable in the prem, with some of the best players I've witnessed in our shirt, shows fantastic progress since Fosun rocked up in Wolves.

I suppose even if we were challenging in the top 4, we'd still be speculating and wondering how we could get to the very top. Even the teams at the very top are always plotting how to maintain their success or improve where they are.

For us it's great where we are currently relative to pre-fosun, but poor compared to the last 2 seasons. After last season we were seriously plotting how we finish higher than 7th, so Nuno has tinkered with the formation and the squad refreshed, but all backfired mainly because of injuries and ideas not quite panned out.

I wonder what our realistic target will be next season, invest a bit more and qualify Europa maybe? Or will Fosun sell a few assets, scale back our ambition and be happy for us to stay up?

 

[Olivergoldblack]

Tim Spiers reported it:

Wolves news: Tim Spiers reveals Fosun's stance on Nuno Espirito Santo

Wolves have struggled to progress this season

www.givemesport.com

Fair enough. Good spot. If we finish 10th or higher, that would be incredible considering the injuries we've had.

 

[Stratman Wolves]

Do you want to be Burnley, WBA or Villa? Everton it is then. And if you don't think we're a mis-step or two from doing a Stoke then you're far too positive for me!

Thats just it. I'm traumatised by our Mick prem years. All it took was one bad transfer window, signing only Roger Johnson and O'Hara and not addressing other issues that led to relegation, despite being minutes away from relegation the year before!

People might think at times I am overreacting or want Fosun to spend billions or nonsense. We are FORTUNATE that despite the injuries and two cautious, mediocre summer transfer windows that have stagnated the squad, we won't be relegated. Nuno is a good manager because if he weren't, we'd be under the **** in the table. Spend smartly on areas of need and refresh the squad, otherwise we are approaching the same Mick stagnation that eventually befalls on all non-elite clubs in this division.