Summer Transfer Window 2022.

[Sussex Wolf]

And I've got years in Audit so I'm guessing we are seeing this from two different perspectives.

That’s fair. Audit and commercial are two different things. One is not better or worse than the other, but they have necessarily different perspectives on a business. I’ve been involved in more audits than I care to remember, and I have a lot of time for them. They are a part of good governance. With the help of my team, I’ve successfully marketed assets for several billion dollars, and comfortably above their book value (as defined by the assets net future value to the selling company) through smart commercial constructs. Not saying this to blow my own trumpet, just to demonstrate I have some relevant experience.

 

[Hoganstolemywife]

And I've got years in Audit so I'm guessing we are seeing this from two different perspectives.

But I've got the bigger willy and my dad is the hardest!

 

[Stoichkov]

have we signed anyone yet

#week2

 

[Leominster_Wolf]

But I've got the bigger willy and my dad is the hardest!

You’ve got a bigger Willy than your dad, but his is harder than yours?

too much info hogan

 

[Sussex Wolf]

But I've got the bigger willy and my dad is the hardest!

To be fair, @sc91 is coming from a different perspective. One looks at the raw figures and says how much cash is available, and the other looks at the viability, risk and value of a business. The former signs off the books, the latter decides how much to invest and at what risk premium to value the investment. The reality is that cashflow is only a part of that assessment, and depending on the business, may or may not be the most critical. If you were investing in an internet startup, it typically wouldn’t be for instance. If you were a small business with limited ability to borrow on decent terms, then ignoring cashflow would likely be fatal.

 

[Summer_Wolf]

I thought it matched the intelligence of your OP to be fair. The entitlement that one comment, which he's since retracted on more than occasion, has created with our fans is crazy. He never meant we were going to spend like Man City, and we've no right to demand it like some spoiled toddler.

You're clearly putting words in my mouth now. No one said we would spend like City, but those sort of comments raise expectations. That's all I was saying. No one is asking for stupid money to be spent, just a competitive amount that's a tad more than the bare minimum and zero net spend. Don't think that's much to ask. No one is demanding anything like a spoiled toddler, talk about hyperbole. A ridiculous attempt to shut down any debate from you. But hey, if you can't see what's happening in front of your nose regarding Fosun then I can't help you.

 

[Stratman Wolves]

There shouldn't be no money to spend at all though, outside of player sales, regardless.

Why?

 

[sc91]

But a company which is generating relatively healthy profits relative to its revenue and cashflow. In fact compared to startup internet businesses, often valued at several multiples of a club like Wolves, we have pretty good cashflow relative to our market valuation so I’m not sure why you are focusing on that?

The volatility in our business is linked almost entirely to our ability to survive in the Premier League, and each year we finish comfortably in the league, reduces that risk premium for any borrowing the club may wish to make. PL survival aside, our cashflow is very stable relative to most businesses since it’s largely underpinned by multi year broadcasting deals which are negotiated not by Wolves, but by an experienced consortium of 20 clubs with a proven track record of growing revenue.

Outside of the PL it’s true to say that football clubs make a very poor investment, typically requiring regular injections of capital to sustain operations. The PL is different. Such are the tv related revenues in recent years, it is entirely possible for clubs to self finance their operations including borrowing to build bigger and better facilities. That’s why there was a bidding war to purchase Chelsea from RA with bids far exceeding the assets being acquired.

Absolutely, just (as mentioned) to me when I see Wolves books and then read 'self-sustaining' the flags pop up to say, oh, so where is the money going to come from, considering what action is likely to be required? Especially looking at the environment they operate .The cash flow being mixed with the pragmatic approach of a large squad overhaul that is required for Wolves, which in turn will require that large injection of capital, thats the only focus on cash flow for that perspective.

Essentially, if I was speaking purely with speculation you are absolutely correct on the last point and funds but I feel Fosun actually pulled the investment out (see, wrote off their loan) a bit to early for the other revenue streams to catch up (Chelsea gain from regular European football and several long seasons bank rolled by RA), it's a big risk to me considering.

Actually did my degree in Economics as well, lord knows why I ended up in Audit, albeit in my final four weeks.

 

[Hoganstolemywife]

Absolutely, just (as mentioned) to me when I see Wolves books and then read 'self-sustaining' the flags pop up to say, oh, so where is the money going to come from, considering what action is likely to be required? Especially looking at the environment they operate .The cash flow being mixed with the pragmatic approach of a large squad overhaul that is required for Wolves, which in turn will require that large injection of capital, thats the only focus on cash flow for that perspective.

Essentially, if I was speaking purely with speculation you are absolutely correct on the last point and funds but I feel Fosun actually pulled the investment out (see, wrote off their loan) a bit to early for the other revenue streams to catch up (Chelsea gain from regular European football and several long seasons bank rolled by RA), it's a big risk to me considering.

Actually did my degree in Economics as well, lord knows why I ended up in Audit, albeit in my final four weeks.

This is such a wholesome exchange!

 

[Sussex Wolf]

Absolutely, just (as mentioned) to me when I see Wolves books and then read 'self-sustaining' the flags pop up to say, oh, so where is the money going to come from, considering what action is likely to be required? Especially looking at the environment they operate .The cash flow being mixed with the pragmatic approach of a large squad overhaul that is required for Wolves, which in turn will require that large injection of capital, thats the only focus on cash flow for that perspective.

Essentially, if I was speaking purely with speculation you are absolutely correct on the last point and funds but I feel Fosun actually pulled the investment out (see, wrote off their loan) a bit to early for the other revenue streams to catch up (Chelsea gain from regular European football and several long seasons bank rolled by RA), it's a big risk to me considering.

Actually did my degree in Economics as well, lord knows why I ended up in Audit, albeit in my final four weeks.

Economics is a broad church!

I’m not expecting Fosun to be injecting more capital into the club in this window any more than in recent windows. I think that should we sell the likes of Neves, Traore and some fringe players, then we’ll likely have around 100m or so to spend on new players, along with the salary budget that would be needed. The transfer income and spend would be spread over multiple years, with commercial loans used to manage cashflow as we’ve seen already.

Perhaps we will see deals which reduce the net spend for ourselves and other clubs, such as a potential three way deal to keep Traore at Barca (if they need him), move Trincao to Sporting, and Palhinha here, with all three players nominally moving for 25m EUR each. But if that happened, then 25m of that 100m budget will have been spent. Assuming Palhinha replaces Neves, then the 50m or so raised from selling Neves can go towards an attacking midfielder with Moutinho retained as cover along with Donck+Cundle , and an experienced CB to partner Kilman with Toti, Mos and Coady as cover/options, with the balance of sales (eg 20m for MGW, and another 10-20m for fringe players) towards a right sided forward, leaving Chiq as cover, Neto and Hwang left sided and Raul plus Silva central. Add in a few million for the new second choice keeper for completeness.

That kind of business would leave our squad still feeling thin on experience, but would provide key replacements and fresh faces, with our younger players providing cover and still having opportunities to play first team football. All without significant if any net spend or new capital from Fosun.

 

[NothingButNeto]

Just to put things into perspective
We are one of the most solvent clubs in the Premier League we are not broke
We have money to spend and offers have gone in for players
We will spend more as players leave to replace them
There is a plan
Quite at moment as transfer window not open and internationals being played over 2 weeks
It will pick up pace after the window opens and internationals finish

Can we just give @Cornwall Wolf his own thread to report the rumors he hears. The rest of this thread is filled with complaints about our players and questioning the clubs solvency.

 

[JayStringer]

Remember when Arsenal had ‘only’ £30m to spend one Sumer, then spunked over £100m?

Sometimes if other clubs think you have no money or need to sell to buy, it can help to keep prices lower than they could be.

I can’t think of a time when it’s useful to go out and make people think you’ve got a load of cash to spend!!

Yup. Wolves clearly had around 25 million to spend last summer. They were linked with a few deals at roughly that amount -with the selling clubs in each case wanting more than that. We can speculate as to whether the Hwang transfer came out of that pot or not, but that still leaves us with the idea that Wolves have money to spend. Factor in that the club are now free of the break-even UEFA sanction, and now have four years of Premier League profit on the books, with the promotion losses aged out of FFP, and Wolves are in a healthy position to go big if they want to. Before even thinking about Neves money.

I'm not saying they will. Maybe they won't. We'll see. But if the will is there, Wolves can spend.

 

[VancouverWolf]

Remember when Arsenal had ‘only’ £30m to spend one Sumer, then spunked over £100m?

Sometimes if other clubs think you have no money or need to sell to buy, it can help to keep prices lower than they could be.

I can’t think of a time when it’s useful to go out and make people think you’ve got a load of cash to spend!!

The football ‘community’ or business is really quite small compared to other commercial interests like banks, communications, food production etc.
All the clubs, players , agents, lawyers, accountants talk or leak to a certain extent and they probably all know who can afford what or not…….there‘s not too many ‘secrets’ anymore.

 

[Supadavewolf]

Marcal has signed for Botafogo on a two year deal, no surprise there.

Botafogo acerta com lateral-esquerdo Fernando Marçal, ex-Wolverhampton, até 2024

Jogador estará disponível para atuar a partir da abertura da janela de transferências, em 18 de julho

ge.globo.com

And

So

It

Begins

A player has gone and not been replaced. Where are my Pampers, and does the transfer window close tonight at the end of this month?

Whaddya mean, it hasn't even opened yet?

 

[Rangiora Wolf]

And

So

It

Begins

A player has gone and not been replaced. Where are my Pampers, and does the transfer window close tonight at the end of this month?

Whaddya mean, it hasn't even opened yet?

A loan according to the article.

 

[SA Wolf]

And

So

It

Begins

A player has gone and not been replaced. Where are my Pampers, and does the transfer window close tonight at the end of this month?

Whaddya mean, it hasn't even opened yet?

I realise that what you are saying is a little tongue-in-cheek and a bit of a dig at fans who are complaining about the perceived lack of activity at Wolves, however other clubs are signing players on pre-contracts and the like. We haven't done much about incomings at the moment; at least we certainly haven't been informed of such.
Fans have a right to be nervous about happenings or not at Wolves and that nervousness will only be alleviated by actions (not words). Call it 'pant-wetting' if you like and dig at others if you like.

 

[VancouverWolf]

I realise that what you are saying is a little tongue-in-cheek and a bit of a dig at fans who are complaining about the perceived lack of activity at Wolves, however other clubs are signing players on pre-contracts and the like. We haven't done much about incomings at the moment; at least we certainly haven't been informed of such.
Fans have a right to be nervous about happenings or not at Wolves and that nervousness will only be alleviated by actions (not words). Call it 'pant-wetting' if you like and dig at others if you like.

In business, ……..don’t show or announce you’re cards until it’s a done deal.

 

[The Wolf In The North]

In business, ……..don’t show or announce you’re cards until it’s a done deal.

Especially in a £100 ante game when you've got £6.37 and some sweet wrappers in your pocket.

 

[Flaneur]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531516684300914689

 

[Matt]

Tbf what central midfielder wouldn’t want to go and play for Barca under Xavi. Let’s hope they can scrape together some decent cash.

 

[SA Wolf]

In business, ……..don’t show or announce you’re cards until it’s a done deal.

Or, in business that relies on a huge fan base, give them some hope, optimism and excitement so that they return again and again, buy season tickets, merchandise and other products that you wish to sell.

 

[ombyman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531516684300914689

Apparantly they are offering him a bowl of Paella and €50 a week. He declined playing for free like Adama

 

[Jd132]

Wolves clearly have to wait to sell before buying. Spiers and Oatley both know what's going on and the owners/ Jeff Shi/ Sellars are hardly pretending otherwise- it's being said directly time and time again.

Yes, Slonina for £3mill, Almeida for £6mill, Pedrinho for £15mill should probably be within reach for an entirely solvent Premier League club. But clearly they aren't, otherwise the transfers would be done.

Yes, they did once say they wanted to compete with Man City but the narrative has completely changed over the last 2 years. Move on.

Yes, they did pay £35mill for Fabio but it was paid for directly by the sale of Jota. That is the prime example of how the game is working now.

Our owners have set their own budget and that is their prerogative entirely. It is what it is. We are not playing by the rules of FFP or other clubs. We are playing by the rules of our owners.

It's not like the change occurred last week. It has been in place for years now. They literally tell us about it at every opportunity. They aren't pretending otherwise.

A budget of £0mill for players and £0mill for wages- only sell to buy. No incomings without outgoings. Get with the programme and stop pretending otherwise.

 

[Oh When the Wolves]

Wolves clearly have to wait to sell before buying. Spiers and Oatley both know what's going on and the owners/ Jeff Shi/ Sellars are hardly pretending otherwise- it's being said directly time and time again.

Yes, Slonina for £3mill, Almeida for £6mill, Pedrinho for £15mill should probably be within reach for an entirely solvent Premier League club. But clearly they aren't, otherwise the transfers would be done.

Yes, they did once say they wanted to compete with Man City but the narrative has completely changed over the last 2 years. Move on.

Our owners have set their own budget and that is their prerogative entirely. It is what it is.

A budget of £0mill for players and £0mill for wages- only sell to buy. No incomings without outgoings. Get with the programme and stop pretending otherwise.

Yeah I see nothing but relegation next season if the case

 

[TheConcourse]

It’s probably worth not referencing an article from years ago talking about competing with City - for various reasons.

My impression of Fosun is this: cash will always be available if the right player comes along, and we’ll continue to sell to generate revenue to improve the squad.

BTW, we’ve still only lost Jota. If Fosun are guilty of anything, it’s holding on to players for too long.

We have to trust them to get it right. All of the comments over a week before the window opens aren’t helpful - even from someone who has criticised their strategy.

People like to compare us to Villa, so let’s talk about the hypotheticals: 6/7 players over there on huge deals, probably significant wage disparities across the group, huge investments from an owner has generated zero return.

How long does an individual keep pumping money in, and as the top four is a closed shop, at what point to does that cash stop flowing?

Then what?

All of the transfer nonsense has been accelerated because they blinked first in the market. Good for them. But that isn’t and should never be any sort of indicator of success.

 

[old wittonian]

It’s probably worth not referencing an article from years ago talking about competing with City - for various reasons.

My impression of Fosun is this: cash will always be available if the right player comes along, and we’ll continue to sell to generate revenue.

BTW, we’ve still only lost Jota. If Fosun are guilty of anything, it’s holding on for players for too long.

We have to trust them to get it right. All of the comments over a week before the window opens aren’t helpful - even from someone who has criticised their strategy.

We have definitely held on to players for too long. Should have refreshed earlier and more often.

 

[Rangiora Wolf]

In business, ……..don’t show or announce you’re cards until it’s a done deal.

Thats only if you've got cards in the first place.

 

[MattH]

I'm not contesting the need to invest in some quality first team players this summer, but there seems to be a narrative on here that Fosun are in some way unusual in keeping net spend at a "low" level.

In fact, we seem about on par with other medium sized prem clubs...https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/fuenfjahresvergleich/wettbewerb/GB1

Another summer of low net spend would skew this, of course.

 

[Sussex Wolf]

We have definitely held on to players for too long. Should have refreshed earlier and more often.

I think that’s been impacted by the pandemic to be fair. It disrupted the flow of transfer business for at least a year.

 

[Jd132]

It’s probably worth not referencing an article from years ago talking about competing with City - for various reasons.

My impression of Fosun is this: cash will always be available if the right player comes along, and we’ll continue to sell to generate revenue.

BTW, we’ve still only lost Jota. If Fosun are guilty of anything, it’s holding on for players for too long.

We have to trust them to get it right. All of the comments over a week before the window opens aren’t helpful - even from someone who has criticised their strategy.

The cash is clearly not available unless we sell. We have literally spent £12mill net in 5 transfer windows. Players that would improve us were available but not purchased.

To continue the pretence that money is available without sales is ludicrous in the face of the actual evidence.

We definitely have to trust them to get it right though you are right. That is the only game in town.

 

[Stoichkov]

Wolves clearly have to wait to sell before buying. Spiers and Oatley both know what's going on and the owners/ Jeff Shi/ Sellars are hardly pretending otherwise- it's being said directly time and time again.

Yes, Slonina for £3mill, Almeida for £6mill, Pedrinho for £15mill should probably be within reach for an entirely solvent Premier League club. But clearly they aren't, otherwise the transfers would be done.

Yes, they did once say they wanted to compete with Man City but the narrative has completely changed over the last 2 years. Move on.

Yes, they did pay £35mill for Fabio but it was paid for directly by the sale of Jota. That is the prime example of how the game is working now.

Our owners have set their own budget and that is their prerogative entirely. It is what it is. We are not playing by the rules of FFP or other clubs. We are playing by the rules of our owners.

It's not like the change occurred last week. It has been in place for years now. They literally tell us about it at every opportunity. They aren't pretending otherwise.

A budget of £0mill for players and £0mill for wages- only sell to buy. No incomings without outgoings. Get with the programme and stop pretending otherwise.

They really don’t

1 we were ready to buy Sanches and Botman without selling first

2 Fosun won’t GIVE money away (apart from writing off £127m debt owed to them!!!) but they will loan it

The Neves sale is akin to an auction; we already know the lowest price which can be secured (probably circa £40m or player exchange with Barca)

However we’re inviting other bids with aim of driving price up

If nothing else comes in, the basic deal goes ahead but he is FOR SALE and will go by a certain date

Incoming players are being bought with the above knowledge

It’s brutal but it’s failsafe and means players going out don’t necessarily go before one’s arriving come in

Do we really think Mendes / Fosun wouldn’t have a plan lined up like this already?

Histrionics in the extreme to wail about how we’re doing nothing simply because it hasn’t happened yet. To what degree it all works is the big question

 

[Stoichkov]

The cash is clearly not available unless we sell. We have literally spent £12mill net in 5 transfer windows. Players that would improve us were available but not purchased.

To continue the pretence that money is available without sales is ludicrous in the face of the actual evidence.

We definitely have to trust them to get it right though you are right. That is the only game in town.

I don’t know why there’s so much teeth nashing - x players are going out for x income which will buy x players

That’s all there is to it

 

[Stoichkov]

Can we just give @Cornwall Wolf his own thread to report the rumors he hears. The rest of this thread is filled with complaints about our players and questioning the clubs solvency.

Great idea. Probably the only thread I’d read. I wonder if he has thought about a career with the Athletic?

 

[Jd132]

They really don’t

1 we were ready to buy Sanches and Botman without selling first

2 Fosun won’t GIVE money away (apart from writing off £127m debt owed to them!!!) but they will loan it

The Neves sale is akin to an auction; we already know the lowest price which can be secured (probably circa £40m or player exchange with Barca)

However we’re inviting other bids with aim of driving price up

If nothing else comes in, the basic deal goes ahead but he is FOR SALE and will go by a certain date

Incoming players are being bought with the above knowledge

It’s brutal but it’s failsafe and means players going out don’t necessarily go before one’s arriving come in

Do we really think Mendes / Fosun wouldn’t have a plan lined up like this already?

Histrionics in the extreme to wail about how we’re doing nothing simply because it hasn’t happened yet. To what degree it all works is the big question

I would agree with this if we bought Botman and Sanches. But we didn't. It was clearly posturing. Then we didn't in January either- there was another opportunity to get both deals done. And they didn't do them.

The evidence is that we haven't bought without selling for 5 windows. To pretend otherwise at this stage is delusional.

 

[Glass ankles]

If we fail to spend this summer transfer window, are people going to continue to say next transfer window is our most important?

Last summer was our most important imo and Jeff and Sellars failed in style. They've made every subsequent window 10x harder. Best players leaving, contracts expiring - stinks of a management team well out of their depth who don't really know what theyre doing.

 

[Jd132]

I don’t know why there’s so much teeth nashing - x players are going out for x income which will buy x players

That’s all there is to it

Agreed 100%- it's very simple. Let's not pretend otherwise though.

 

[Wolf316]

I would agree with this if we bought Botman and Sanches. But we didn't. It was clearly posturing. Then we didn't in January either- there was another opportunity to get both deals done. And they didn't do them.

The evidence is that we haven't bought without selling for 5 windows. To pretend otherwise at this stage is delusional.

Yep going in a couple of days before the window closed with offers well below asking is not being ready to buy.

 

[TheConcourse]

The cash is clearly not available unless we sell. We have literally spent £12mill net in 5 transfer windows. Players that would improve us were available but not purchased.

To continue the pretence that money is available without sales is ludicrous in the face of the actual evidence.

We definitely have to trust them to get it right though you are right. That is the only game in town.

Tough to say when you break down the conditions of the market/club at the time.

Covid/Nuno/Bruno.

This summer, as you say, is the real indicator. It’s huge. The hysteria at this stage is totally unnecessary.

 

[Ned]

So why did we spend 35 MILLION on Fabio Silva

That’s a good point actually, maybe we should discuss this more?

 

[Jd132]

Tough to say when you break down the conditions of the market/club at the time.

Covid/Nuno/Bruno.

This summer, as you say, is the real indicator. It’s huge. The hysteria at this stage is totally unnecessary.

It's not hysteria though- it's simply reading what is coming out of the club directly from Sellars, reading what is coming from Spiers and Oatley indirectly and triangulating it with the net spend of the last 5 transfer windows.

All of those indicators together are corroborating to provide the likely truth which is that we will not spend without selling.

Do I personally wish that our 5th richest Premier League owners would spend to their means in relation to their billionaire counterparts? Of course I do! But all of the indications are that they won't.