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The ‘Sustainability’ Paradox

Stafford

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There is no successful model to follow in England. It's a closed shop.

Leicester managed to break it with some superb signings, but that isn't really a model just a one off fluke. Even when clubs have a successful couple of seasons it will eventually go wrong because it isn't sustainable to compete for top 4 and you need a lot of luck for top 6.

We just have be grateful we aren't being driven financially into the ground like 90% of clubs.
 

Oliwolf44

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I'd much rather sell to a foreign club than a domestic one.

But I'd also rather get £60m plus cash from United than a bag of scratchings and a couple of reject players from Barca!

Can't have it all I suppose.

And £80m for Maguire is as much about United's failings than it is about Leicester's negotiating. He's worth no more than £30m.

Realistically, £50m would be the most we will get for Neves.
After saying all of that, i too want him to go abroad despite the financial benefit :tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy:
Can actually root for him then, but in a Utd shirt? No thanks. Its why ive got no time for Jota despite all the good he did for us and seems like a decent bloke. Just cannot stand Utd or Lpool.
 

Stratman Wolves

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Good recruitment is more important than the size of the cheque book.
I think this 100% true. But good recruitment sometimes requires the cheque book, as our championship signings showed. And it was worth it. Our recruitment strategy seems wildly different than it was 5 years ago, even in regards to the players Wolves target.

I really would be happy with a Leicester approach, I do NOT (nor do most fans here I assume) want to just throw bags of money at players, which some accuse every transfer window. But we want our recruitment to be smart and ambitious, not confusing and seemingly non-existent.
 

WolfLing

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I think this 100% true. But good recruitment sometimes requires the cheque book, as our championship signings showed. And it was worth it. Our recruitment strategy seems wildly different than it was 5 years ago, even in regards to the players Wolves target.

I really would be happy with a Leicester approach, I do NOT (nor do most fans here I assume) want to just throw bags of money at players, which some accuse every transfer window. But we want our recruitment to be smart and ambitious, not confusing and seemingly non-existent.

Leicester tend to sign players in that £15-£30m bracket. Some go on to be first team regulars, some don't, some are sold for a small loss, some are sold for a big profit.

That's where I expect we will end up.

We should be competing with them for the signings of players like Soumare, Fofana, Daka and Castagne. But they all happened a bit too early for us.
 

Flump

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Imho we need a new injection and impetus to go forward now if not with Fosun International I would like to see maybe American Owners to give us back that dream again of breaking into that top 6. Of which Newcastle Fans no doubt have got now for next season with their new owners.

Why does the nationality of the owners matter to you?
 

Jay Jay de Wolf

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Why does the nationality of the owners matter to you?
Because I feel the world order with China's sort of alliance with Russia effects Fosun's future investment into WWFC with it being in the balance at this moment in time with Russia's war on Ukraine. Or if China invade Taiwan in the near future that will be curtains for Fosun imho?
 

Flump

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Because I feel the world order with China's sort of alliance with Russia effects Fosun's future investment into WWFC with it being in the balance at this moment in time with Russia's war on Ukraine. Or if China invade Taiwan in the near future that will be curtains for Fosun.

Chances of that are very remote compared to the chances of any individual owner losing interest/falling on hard times - Randy Lerner for example.

Nationality is way down the list of things I'd care about. And even if I did, American owners don't have a great history at all. I think Liverpool is the only club with US owners that's doing well, and even they aren't popular.
 

rincewind

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How much money have Fosun taken out of Wolves?
I don't see how they are making anything from us. Perhaps if they sell up they would make a relatively modest profit?
 

Mutchy

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Because I feel the world order with China's sort of alliance with Russia effects Fosun's future investment into WWFC with it being in the balance at this moment in time with Russia's war on Ukraine. Or if China invade Taiwan in the near future that will be curtains for Fosun imho?
You were told just recently not to turn things political.
 

Eastyorksyeltz

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@Asthmatic Wolf welcome to MM an excellent OP and assessment of Fosun's stalling and status quo position with our great club the last 18 months or so.

Imho we need a new injection and impetus to go forward now if not with Fosun International I would like to see maybe American Owners to give us back that dream again of breaking into that top 6. Of which Newcastle Fans no doubt have got now for next season with their new owners.
American owners, who might just take it into their heads to move us to become Essex Wolves, simply because the franchise has a better chance of success in the South East, after they have supported the new European Super League , with no relegation and the champions decided by a playoff system. Such things dreams are made of.
 

rincewind

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Because I feel the world order with China's sort of alliance with Russia effects Fosun's future investment into WWFC with it being in the balance at this moment in time with Russia's war on Ukraine. Or if China invade Taiwan in the near future that will be curtains for Fosun imho?
If China invades Taiwan the US has promised to respond militarily. In that scenario I don't think Fosun and Wolves will be top of anyone's worries.
 

Flea

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Are we overestimating the selling value of Ruben Neves?
Is there a buzz about him from other fans and people from around other clubs?
Many Wolves fans is raving about him,yes..but other than that?
He is a type of player that normally doesn´t attract those big sums of money.
He is a benchplayer when Portugal national side is playing.

Will we struggle to get more than 30 Mill for him?
I hope I´m wrong of course..but those sums stated for 50 Mill and more...just can´t see them myself.
 

HKWolf

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Unfortunately I believe a lot of you are looking for excuses to try and justify for our ineptitude, lack of ambition and ultimate **** it, and are trying to make it sound harder to break the top 4 than it actually is.

Going from 15th or whatever we were in the Championship to finishing 7th, qualifying for Europe and reaching an FA cup semi final within 2 years also sounds ridiculous, but we did it.

Heavy investment makes anything possible and we didn’t even need particularly heavy investment 2 summers ago. We didn’t even need huge investment last summer or in January. We needed to keep the same team and get a mobile central midfielder (Sanches) and a quality central defender. We did neither, and over the past 2 years have given away Jota on a 25 year mortgage to Liverpool, and Traore on a free loan.

The top 4 could have been broken, the top 6 should have been broken as a minimum, now they’ve ****ed it up as the players are getting older and the best ones want to leave. It’s still repairable, but it requires ambition and brains. Unfortunately we have Sellars, Shi and fat Vinny in charge so we are ****ed and will end up with more Hwangs.
 

Oliwolf44

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Chances of that are very remote compared to the chances of any individual owner losing interest/falling on hard times - Randy Lerner for example.

Nationality is way down the list of things I'd care about. And even if I did, American owners don't have a great history at all. I think Liverpool is the only club with US owners that's doing well, and even they aren't popular.
Would argue American venture capitalist owners are the last thing i would want. Hated at Utd, Success the only thing keeping them from being hated at Liverpool and Alan Pace just loaded Burnley with debt and took them down. Boehly already said Chelsea are not doing enough marketing and extracting more revenue from fans. No thanks.
 

WolfLing

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Would argue American venture capitalist owners are the last thing i would want. Hated at Utd, Success the only thing keeping them from being hated at Liverpool and Alan Pace just loaded Burnley with debt and took them down. Boehly already said Chelsea are not doing enough marketing and extracting more revenue from fans. No thanks.

The Glazers have taken over £1bn out of our game. The worst kind of owners.
 

northnorfolkwolf

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Much has been made of the need to be ‘sustainable’.

Yet as I read that Ruben Neves, who could and should have been the centrepiece of our progression into the elite of the PL, is all but confirming that he is on his way, the fallacy of it all becomes impossible to ignore.

Fosun recognised the importance of disproportionate capital injection when taking over, and spending significant sums to take us from mid table Champ to upper ends Prem. The financial returns available in the Prem has protected or paid off this investment (depending on how you cook your accounts).

Finishing 7th twice, we were arguably a couple of exceptional players away from challenging the top 4. Capital injection. Poor players stick out like a sore thumb in a good team: see Hwang/Dendoncker, or even as I watched AC Milan yday, a Leao vs a Krunic.

The returns available at CL level from qualification alone, ignoring the commercial revenues, the player attraction, and the increased FFP ceiling would more than pay for the capital invested whilst enhancing Fosun’s brand further. Player asset values would increase too. However whenever we have been close, we have backed away, even weakening our squad rather than maintaining continuity or the status quo.

As such this ‘sustainable’ model is a fallacy, diminishing product, brand and asset value, and demonstrating a lack of ambition which drives our best players away.

A simple replication of the Championship approach would likely have provided the impetus to make the final step. Instead, I fear, the lack of investment will see us continue to step the other way. Which is very sad.
Didn't the spending in the Champs cost us a FFP 3 year penalty, which we are now just coming out of?
 

Mile End Wanderer

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If China invades Taiwan the US has promised to respond militarily. In that scenario I don't think Fosun and Wolves will be top of anyone's worries.
China aren’t that stupid America would end them within minutes. Fosun are just a big conglomerate we are a small adventure for them

They’ve been good to us but maybe it’s time we look for fresh investment? Selling to buy will only hold for so long
 

Black Country Wanderer

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China aren’t that stupid America would end them within minutes. Fosun are just a big conglomerate we are a small adventure for them

They’ve been good to us but maybe it’s time we look for fresh investment? Selling to buy will only hold for so long
Like who?
Who in their right minds would buy a football club and pour hundreds of millions in to possibly get something back years down the road?
Only the very top clubs, with already established income streams are viable for investment,and they are very few in the world
 

WeAreTheWolvesII

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It's all about money, that's the sad reality.

People can cling on to what they want but the reality is virtually all neutrals and non-bias Wolves fans know that we're going nowhere. They will all expect Villa & Newcastle to finish above us with relative ease. Add that to the six we won't finish above and West Ham. So again, we're probably playing for 10th.

I am critical of the way we're run but I also think logically. I will go into next season thinking 10th is a very good finish for us, as outlined above. If you want to get into it, I also think Palace, Brighton and Leicester are/will be better than us. So, I'd expect us to just about avoid a relegation battle next season.

But we've not really done much wrong have we? New stadium, no FFP or whatever, we are never ever going to compete with the big six. You can add Newcastle to that as well, whilst Villa are spending at a ridiculous rate and will have an excellent squad IMO by August.

However, it's hypocritical for us to moan about these clubs with owners willing to spend because we're only where we are because of owners who blew others out the water.

Now, they don't want to. And because of that we go backwards.

Can we really blame them for not putting even more money in? I blame them for not spending £20m in a transfer window because if Ashley can do it as he wants to sell Newcastle, then we can. But, that's not really going to make the difference in the bigger picture.

So, what's the aim? Go for the cups, try our best in the league and see what happens. That's why this season is so annoying. It's not an exaggeration, in my opinion, to say we may NEVER be in a position like we were just four months ago because of how this league is constantly improving. Europe was a real possibility and they didn't even try to get it. Doing nothing would be bad enough but we actually made ourselves worse. It's hard to accept or understand.

Ultimately, like 7/8 teams we're just hoping to stick around but eventually our time will come and we'll go down.

You can think I'm being negative but it'll come and I could write the same post on a Leeds, Southampton, Brighton forum. It's the way of the league, it's the way of football. Sad but here we are.
 

Keyser Soze

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The issue with 'that final step' is it is so difficult to do and there are no guarantees. The club with the biggest net spent in the last 10 years (United) struggled to finished 6th.

It's not a 'givun' that keeping Traore, or spending in January would have made any difference to our season. Yes, it could have done, but like I say, there are no guarantees.

It's also worth noting that European qualification might have damaged our ability to rebuild this summer, given that it would limit our spending moreso than PL spending rules would. I'm not saying we deliberately failed to qualify for Europe, but the rebuild is more important, so I'm actually glad we've avoided it.

For us, it's probably about staying in touch. Maintaining our status as a club for whom relegation is probably not a concern, but will always compete in that pack between 7th and 12th. That's with clubs like West Ham, Leicester, probably now Newcastle too.

We will then have seasons where everything falls into place. New signings hit the ground running and we are lucky with injuries etc. Very similar to our first few seasons under Nuno, but not at all what's happened in the last 2. Those are the seasons where we finish above par and can potentially push on.
This is exactly the crux of it in my mind, to make that 'next step' and to break through all the barriers that block that path we not only have to spend a fortune, but also spend that fortune extremely well... and everyone not connected with Wolves does not want us to do that and the cost risk analysis done by our owners has said it's not a path we will take, or can take

Instead, my expectations are to remain mid table, and hope we can get our recruitment right in the price range we can afford... and most of the time we will fall short like this season as more things will go against us than for us... and we should have enough to stay out of trouble... but, every once in a while the luck will go our way and the 'wonderkids' will become wonderful and in those seasons we could well find ourselves in the European spots, or have a real run at a cup... and when we do we have to capitalise and kick on

We couldn't last time as we were hampered by our time in the champ and doing it too early, but next time we will be clear of those restrictions and hopefully will kick on then

Everything else, what we did or didn't do in Jan etc. is just if, buts and maybe's... we will get another season, maybe next, where it all clicks, the investments work and we stay injury free and that's what we are playing for... we're a midtable Prem club looking up with the hope of something falling from the Top 6's table... could be worse
 

Mile End Wanderer

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Like who?
Who in their right minds would buy a football club and pour hundreds of millions in to possibly get something back years down the road?
Only the very top clubs, with already established income streams are viable for investment,and they are very few in the world
If Leicester can do it why can’t we
 
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If their position is threatened they can always lean on mendes. But I don’t see the ambition to do any better than they have, at least in the immediate future (hopefully wrong on that). Zero stadium development, buy cheap talent for a pay off and maintain, use the wolves logo to expand the fosun brand Internationally and build income for the club slowly. That’s the evidence that has been presented since our second season in the prem I believe.

The only ones suffering are the fans that have to watch just missing out or periods of awful football while players develop and supplement injured players because we only have a decent first eleven and no depth and pay a high price to watch it.
 

lobodelsur

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Good recruitment is more important than the size of the cheque book.
Exactly. Brian Clough's early teams were built on a shoestring, superb tactics and excellent man-management. These last 2 are more important than the size of your cheque-book - e.g. see Atalanta in Italy, Rennes in France, Freiburg in Germany.
 

Black Country Wanderer

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If Leicester can do it why can’t we
Leicester did it in very different circumstances and very different times
They built a new stadium which they couldnt afford in 2002, and went into administration only being saved by Gary Linekers consortium
They dropped into the 3rd division before getting back into the Prem years later

AFI stepped in when they were in the Championship before FFP was established,and built their title winning side very much in the style we have been playing, fast paced counter attacking based on a solid defence and midfield
They then sold virtually every member of that side within 2/3 seasons i think only Vardy remains now

We have based our rise very much on their style and model on and off the field imo
Problem is we still need a new stadium and have FFP to deal with
 

HowfenWolf

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Its up to Fosun.If they want to grow the club & the fanbase they will have to buy better players, play exciting football & score lots of goals
On the otherhand if they want to go down the sustainable route, then its going to be average players, bland safe defensive football with fewer goals.We've gone from being everybody"s favourite 2nd team to the team they all dont want to watch - boring Wolves
 

JOSWolf

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They are simply happy taking the money they make in TV revenues and player trading but do just enough (in their eyes) to "be competitive" midtable. It is a nicer version of "young and hungry" but with higher ceiling Iberian lads and not Irish players. That is really what it boils down to, sadly. We missed a big opportunity two years ago to build on a solid foundation.

Totally agree, Stratman.
 

whitnash wolf ex.dewsbury

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Its up to Fosun.If they want to grow the club & the fanbase they will have to buy better players, play exciting football & score lots of goals
On the otherhand if they want to go down the sustainable route, then its going to be average players, bland safe defensive football with fewer goals.We've gone from being everybody"s favourite 2nd team to the team they all dont want to watch - boring Wolves
which means Wolves fans will become bored,stop going and we won`t need a bigger ground
 
D

Deleted member 8455jwf

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Much has been made of the need to be ‘sustainable’.

Yet as I read that Ruben Neves, who could and should have been the centrepiece of our progression into the elite of the PL, is all but confirming that he is on his way, the fallacy of it all becomes impossible to ignore.

Fosun recognised the importance of disproportionate capital injection when taking over, and spending significant sums to take us from mid table Champ to upper ends Prem. The financial returns available in the Prem has protected or paid off this investment (depending on how you cook your accounts).

Finishing 7th twice, we were arguably a couple of exceptional players away from challenging the top 4. Capital injection. Poor players stick out like a sore thumb in a good team: see Hwang/Dendoncker, or even as I watched AC Milan yday, a Leao vs a Krunic.

The returns available at CL level from qualification alone, ignoring the commercial revenues, the player attraction, and the increased FFP ceiling would more than pay for the capital invested whilst enhancing Fosun’s brand further. Player asset values would increase too. However whenever we have been close, we have backed away, even weakening our squad rather than maintaining continuity or the status quo.

As such this ‘sustainable’ model is a fallacy, diminishing product, brand and asset value, and demonstrating a lack of ambition which drives our best players away.

A simple replication of the Championship approach would likely have provided the impetus to make the final step. Instead, I fear, the lack of investment will see us continue to step the other way. Which is very sad.
If you think we were a few quality players away from champions league then you are dreaming I'm afraid. Reckon we'd have needed about 4 more for about £120-50M plus massive wages.
 

Stoichkov

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Fosun recognised the importance of disproportionate capital injection when taking over, and spending significant sums to take us from mid table Champ to upper ends Prem. The financial returns available in the Prem has protected or paid off this investment (depending on how you cook your accounts)..

Your logic suggests we should just spend until we get to top 4. Would have been great if we’d got there when close, but reality is we either did it or didn’t, and shouldn’t be swayed or sucked into believing we’re that close off the pitch when compared to clubs with vastly bigger income / budgets.
 

Oliwolf44

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If you think we were a few quality players away from champions league then you are dreaming I'm afraid. Reckon we'd have needed about 4 more for about £120-50M plus massive wages.
I agree, i thought we were close at first but have changed my mind, we're miles off. Of the current crop of players can only see Neto and Ait Nouri being part of a Wolves champs league team (Neves off clearly).
 

Wolfhawk

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I like our existing owners and I do think we will either stay around mid-table, other than next year where I think we risk dropping down the ladder and even flirting with relegation if we don't bring in the right players, but I am worried about the future if a war between China and America happens. I think it is coming, and when it hits I could see companies like Fuson taking a big hit.
 

Asthmatic Wolf

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Your logic suggests we should just spend until we get to top 4. Would have been great if we’d got there when close, but reality is we either did it or didn’t, and shouldn’t be swayed or sucked into believing we’re that close off the pitch when compared to clubs with vastly bigger income / budgets.
I haven’t said that all Stoichkov so I’m unclear as to your own logic regarding my logic.

We had a team capable of beating any team in the league, with a very small squad, which needed strengthening to move a couple of places up in the league. It’s not inconceivable, and doesn’t require massive investment either. Just retaining your best players and adding (at that time) sensibly to improve.

AC Milan have won Serie A with the lowest wage bill of the top teams, and the likes of Villarreal and Atalanta have made the knockout stages of the Champions League.

It is neither straightforward nor guaranteed, obviously, but it can be, has been and is being done.
 

Asthmatic Wolf

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If you think we were a few quality players away from champions league then you are dreaming I'm afraid. Reckon we'd have needed about 4 more for about £120-50M plus massive wages.
‘Arguably a couple of players away from challenging for the top 4’ is what my OP said.

Do you really think it is ‘dreaming’ to consider that the far better team which finished 7th twice, would not with some more talent in the squad, have challenged for the top 4, given that this poorer version of the team was challenging for it in January?
 
D

Deleted member 8455jwf

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‘Arguably a couple of players away from challenging for the top 4’ is what my OP said.

Do you really think it is ‘dreaming’ to consider that the far better team which finished 7th twice, would not with some more talent in the squad, have challenged for the top 4, given that this poorer version of the team was challenging for it in January?
I mean a lot of teams could say with another £150M spent and another £20M on the wage bill we'd have a good crack at top 4.
But we'd still probably not have made it. The business case for Fosun giving us another £100-150M as a loan to give us a low % shot at top 4 (let alone consistently) just isn't there
 

Asthmatic Wolf

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I mean a lot of teams could say with another £150M spent and another £20M on the wage bill we'd have a good crack at top 4.
But we'd still probably not have made it. The business case for Fosun giving us another £100-150M as a loan to give us a low % shot at top 4 (let alone consistently) just isn't there
I agree that it would still have been more likely for us not to have finished in the top 4 than to have made it.

Not sure it would have cost that much.

But I guess we will never know..!
 

Dr Wolfenstein

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Unfortunately we don’t currently have a manager who can act as a conduit between the owners, the club and the fans & wider community. McCarthy & Nuno were exceptional in this respect. Nuno in particular being a personal friend & client of Mendes ensured there was a certain amount of respect, integrity & quality control with regards to the players he provided for us. Once that link was broken, we were left with an unbalanced recruitment strategy, and we seem to have fallen way down the list of Mendes’ priorities & with equally disinterested owners. Chinese retrenchment seems to have broken lines of communication with the supporters. Bruno is just a coach, seemingly not strong enough to impose his character & philosophy on either the players, the wider aspects of the club or the recruitment process.

Somebody needs to take the recruitment strategy by the scruff of the neck & make it work in our favour. A continuing merry-go-round between Wolves, Grasshoppers, z-list Mendes cast-offs etc etc just emphasises the law of diminishing returns. Coming in as football novices Fosun & Shi were sold a model that was only sustainable with continuing & growing investment, a stable political & economic climate, and an unbreakable symbiotic relationship between the super-agent & the club’s hierarchy/management.

We now need a pro-active approach, spear-headed by someone dynamic & knowledgeable & capable of thinking outside the box, not a safety first jobsworth toeing what is becoming an increasingly fainter & less ambitious company line.
 
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