Where are we this season? Results & Projections [Archive]

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thisisgil

17-09-2007, 14:32

I wanted to compare how our start this season compares to the start we had last season, so knocked up a quick graph.

I've added projections assuming we continue to score points at our current rate, and projected total points requirements for Playoff and Automatic promotion places based on an average of the last 3 seasons.

Key:

This season + Projection: White
Last season: Grey
Playoffs: Red
Automatic Promotion: Blue

http://img116.imageshack.us/img116/2914/wwfckd6.jpg

Big Mack

17-09-2007, 15:09

Nice work. Looks a bit busy so a close up of where we are now compared to last season might have been nice. Far too much time on your hands obviously, but be interesting to see how this progresses through the season.

Toon Wolf

17-09-2007, 15:40

Good work, mate, though I'm sure a mathematician would question its validity! As a rough snapshot it does a good job.

GoldenHorseshoe

17-09-2007, 16:57

Propeller head!;)

jlovatt

17-09-2007, 17:00

so you are trying to say we have no chance then with this graph?

thisisgil

17-09-2007, 17:04

so you are trying to say we have no chance then with this graph?

I'm not trying to say anything - I work in forecasting, so spend a lot of my time producing projections and forecasts (this graph was just a rough 10 minute job though, there's nothing more heavyweight than an average involved in the calculations).

The graph speaks for itself:

1) If we carry on gaining points at the rate we have up to this point, we will most likely not make the playoffs

2) Our start has been poorer than our start less season.

Neither of these are my personal opinion, it's just what the data would suggest. I'm more interested to see what other people read into the data. One interesting thing that I noticed is that after the 6th game last season, we were on track for an automatic promotion place :D

Also, remember that 95% of all statistics are rubbish ;)

glasgowwolf

17-09-2007, 17:15

Lies, damn lies and statistics

Hatch End Wolf

17-09-2007, 18:10

I've done a graph of league positions for the last three seasons and so far there is a very similar pattern to the two previous years. If the sequence remains the same we will win and draw the next two games and then stay near the 6th place until December.
In fact this season's start is almost identical to that of 05-06............Hmm! no play offs then!

Swinford Wolf

17-09-2007, 18:25

Personally I don`t need any graphs to tell me we are playing s### & unless things are sorted quickly we are going nowhere !

Kenny-11

17-09-2007, 18:26

Since graphs and all that prove nothing, thought I would throw this in

The last time MM took a team out of this division..after the opening 7 games

http://www.wolves.premiumtv.co.uk/page/LeagueTable/0,,10307~20040911,00.html

johnybig32

17-09-2007, 18:41

I dont know why people are reading so much into 1 defeat especially after the performance was very good and we only had ourselves to blame!

Were we outplayed by a relegated premiership team who still have all there players and have brought players in?

Space Wolf

17-09-2007, 20:46

Stewarton Wolf

17-09-2007, 20:54

Since graphs and all that prove nothing, thought I would throw this in

The ONLY time MM took a team out of this division..after the opening 7 games

http://www.wolves.premiumtv.co.uk/page/LeagueTable/0,,10307~20040911,00.html (http://www.wolves.premiumtv.co.uk/page/LeagueTable/0,,10307%7E20040911,00.html)

Thats more accurate

Essex Wolf

18-09-2007, 09:59

Win the next two games and the graph will be totally different and at this early stage it's far too early to guess/assume/judge anything.

None the less good work thisisgil

GoldenHorseshoe

18-09-2007, 10:11

Thats more accurate

He's at it agaaaaaaaaaaaaain:eek:

GoldenHorseshoe

18-09-2007, 10:15

Win the next two games and the graph will be totally different and at this early stage it's far too early to guess/assume/judge anything.

None the less good work thisisgil

Take a look at how close together the lines are at the start of the graph.

You need to see the situation after about 10 games, right now 1 or 2 results can make big changes in the table.

(Forcasters? I've $$$$ 'em);)

fenella

18-09-2007, 10:30

Win tonight and we'll have a projected 77 points! Play-offs, yeah!

Oxford_Wolf

18-09-2007, 12:24

We have played Watford and Shef Utd, 2 of the 3 teams that came down so far, which means that we should expect a lower points tally.

Lets see where we are after tonight.

Oxford_Wolf

18-09-2007, 12:38

I know it is a bit early on to be doing this but I plugged some numbers into the BBC table predictor. And with wins against Hull, Norwich and Plymouth it would put us 6th on 16 Points (2 per game) - According to Gil's Chart that would leave us back on track for automatic promotion.

Most of the teams above us have pretty easy games with the exceptions of Coventry vs. Charlton on 29th and Cardiff vs. Watford tomorrow. Poor Old QPR have Albion and Watford to play in the next couple of weeks.

Muscat

18-09-2007, 12:43

Good grief, where to start?

Since when has anything been determined after 5 games? Football doesn't work like that, you can't just take the total after 5 games, times it by 9 and have a result. Sunderland had 3 points after 5 games last season, so OBVIOUSLY they finished bottom, right?

What a waste of time and bandwidth.

thisisgil

18-09-2007, 13:38

kennyB

18-09-2007, 13:49

Not predicting where we will finish and appreciate that things could change dramatically but at present we have not been playing decent football and are lucky to even be where we are. On current form we will be nowhere near the play-offs so I hope things start to improve, hopefully starting tonight.

Muscat

18-09-2007, 14:37

RTFA

Er, yeah, read it, thanks and don't see what it changes. Using the points gained from 5 games gives no long-term idea as to finishing positions and, as such, assuming we will maintain the same performance over the course of many months is pointless, thus a waste of time and bandwidth. If we'd won at the weekend we'd be on track for 90 points and certain automatic promotion according to the graph. :rolleyes:

Essentially, this thread appears to be little more than a thinly veiled dig at our side and manager.

thisisgil

18-09-2007, 14:57

Essentially, this thread appears to be little more than a thinly veiled dig at our side and manager.

Making the assumption that if we continue to play as we have done, we're not likely to make the playoffs is not a "dig", it's a fact of life.

I'd also consider that relative to the squad strength we had a season ago, the opening 5 games of last season were just as tough as the opening 5 games of this season. I'm of the opinion we had a slightly stronger start last season. Quite why this is, I'm not sure - increased expectations perhaps?

I'm not digging at any of the players or the manager (although I do feel that Keogh is overdue a couple of goals), just making conclusions based on the results to date. These are my opinions as a season ticket holder, and as such are as valid as the opinions of any other poster, whether you agree with them or not.

Muscat

18-09-2007, 15:23

Making the assumption that if we continue to play as we have done, we're not likely to make the playoffs is not a "dig", it's a fact of life.

It's a pointless assumption though, isn't it? Same as if we'd won on Saturday it would be pointless assuming we would be going up automatically. Same as it is daft to assume Bristol City will be scoring 100 points this season.

We've had a tricky set of fixtures so far, but we're doing ok. The performances have been varied but - Morecambe aside - nothing too bad. We should win tonight and on Saturday, and will be even better when Jarvis is fit. There's no point getting carried away or suicidal at this early stage of the season.